Predicted Trading Range for 2/26 and Possible 3 Drives FormingPart I: The predicted trading range for tomorrow, Monday, February 26, will be between 25402 and 25000. Market futures say 25411 at this time, but given the lack of news over the weekend it is likely they will return to more realistic levels. Obviously a 400 point swing is highly unlikey, but given the volatlily that the Dow has experience as of late, this type of swing is within the realm of possibilty. The range is made up of two trend lines and a support level. The upper trend line dates back to November, when it initially emerged as a support and stayed that way until the events of early February. Now it is holding the market back and providing the perfect cushion for the three drives pattern we could see forming this week.
The second trend line is relatively weaker. It is a short trend line whereas the previous example is dates back months. I would be surprised if the market hits this line tomorrow, expect a quick jump to the long run trend line in the morning and a slow retreat towards the market open price throughout the day.
Finally, there is a support/resistance line that first appeared in January at 25320, just below where the market futures are tonight. If we have a full day open to close above this line, we could see an avoidance of the three drives pattern I have illustrated on this graph. As a note, the candlesticks may only be 4 hours long but given where we are in the economic cycle this month could pave the way for the next year.
Part II: Partial three drives pattern initiated, possible completion of the bearish pattern over the next week. As we can see, the first triangle of a bearish three drives pattern has been nearly completed. If tomorrow we have contact with the resistance trend line, and the inititation of a retracement, expect a bearish three drives pattern to be fully engaged. If so, this could be the C wave in the current DJIA Elliot Wave cycle. \
I'm nuetral heading into this week, but anticipate on picking up a bearish position if these two predictions begin to develop. As always I love to hear feedback and any questions or comments.
Three Drives
March Canadian Dollar Three Drives BearishCAD not reacting too much to USD as it is horizontal looking for strength. CAD horizontal move into wedge pattern and the fact that we are on the top side of RSI suggests a fall. There maybe still a some top side for CAD if USD falls again. It will need to do some clearing of RSI before significant upside can be achieved.
Rinse, Wash, Repeat: the fractal road to 8K(see related ideas below)
Called the 17.2K bulltrap when folks were expecting to unload bags at 18-19K.
Called the 9K low on the second selloff, when folks were clamoring for even more blood.
Now we're repeating the same rebound, retrace, and collapse cycle on this pitchfork. This rally should get stuck under the old yellow triangle bottom, so no more than 14K. Some will aim for a test of the channel top again (or even breakout to the upside), but bulls are weary of failure, and bears are in a hurry to get this trip south over with (who doesn't love cheap coins?). Expect to see new triangles drawn during this rebound showing how we're going to burst out the top (like the orange and yellow lines did before breaking down last time). Watch the white bear shoulder trendlines, as they provide major resistance (and breakout rally energy). The most recent rebound stalled at 12,800 on that white line (just like before).
Pink arrows show rough sketch of the path to 8K. We'll have bearish Gartleys and Head & Shoulders all over again, fueling the dumps. If anything, now that the bulls have seen the potential for bloody waterfall dumps, I would expect this capitulation to come even faster than I've sketched. Market is getting used to hearing talk of 8K, and everyone will be jumping on board the dump train at the slightest whiff of bear.
I don't usually have a good sense of precise timing for my sketches, and I'm already noticing an acceleration in the patterns being repeated. When folks have already heard the tune before, they're quick to sing it again the second time. But if I'm anywhere close, we should be seeing the third selloff bottom around the second week of February. Notice the RSI low points indicating the local bottoms of each selloff. Third arrow is an estimate based on the sketch timing.
Of course, this is a "bullish" three-drives pattern, where at the end we rally to around the 14K S/R zone. Expect huge buying volume after we touch 8K, which should rocket us back up to the last triangle trendline, and setting up an inverse Head & Shoulders formation that will finally breach the pitchfork top. (crypto traders looooove H&S)
If my forecasts have helped you, tips are extremely appreciated, and definitely encourage me to keep posting :) PM me for address
April Hogs Three Drives Bullish CypherApril Hogs has created a bearish flag and top of a bearish three drives. Need confirmation before taking an interest in this bearish scenario. We have seen a fight with bulls and bears in the past week keeping hogs high. It happened again today. Index once again fell, so the logical action would be to sell, but when have futures been logical. Bears have been very active with more sells than buys, but funds supporting further highs. Hog inventories 2% higher at this time last year. If bears can push this down off of bearish flag tomorrow target is 73.425 at pivot
XEM/USD long trend aheadEven though we recently learn about China is moving for a cryptoban, XEM* is already well implemented in the east and should provide a growth in the month to come.
The recent down is probably due to the uncertainty related to Catapult and China Cryptoban rather than about the fundamentals of XEM*
The demand has a steady growth but could be slowed by a lack of platform trading the XEM* and the lack of counterparts .
In order to break the 1.09 resistance, those 3 issues have to be clarified.
The coin may stumble a little longer, as no support have been clearly identify and as the future doesn't look clear enough yet.
In conclusion, look out for the any news related and any sign of rebound.
Analysis done by The Foil
31.12.2017 03:31
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[ADA/BTC] - They see me flaggin, they hatinCardano has been on an absolute tear the last month, exhibiting the flag patterns we've seen across many alts over that time. It's currently breaking out of the last flag but the question is whether it forms a three-drives pattern and drops or continues flagging.
I've set two targets here that represent the case for each scenario - 5k for another flag and 4.3k for the three-drive. Either way, we're looking good for a quick swing trade here.
EURUSD: May complete 3rd wave higherEvery EURUSD dip was re-bought. The price could be heading to complete the third wave of a potential three drives pattern as illustrated on chart. Buying this for the short term. Will be watching if we reach potential reversal zone around 1.1920-1.1930.
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Technician
NatGasUSD possible three dives patternIf the pattern continues correctly, you can buy and sell near the signals.
Canadian Dollar Triple bottomCanadian dollar should have moved up on gap down on USD, but pressure on CAD has left it stagnate. The H&S called for in Dec contract on USD appears to be delivering. Neckline at 92.58. Looking for a double bottom at 91.50. CAD ??? We may conclude that a bullish flat was created today on CAD. What overnight will bring we will see tomorrow.