Tidewater... Bad Water. TDWWe are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
Tidewater
TideWaterOil - Positive BreakoutTidewaterOil declined from high of 3873 on 13/07/2021 down to 1397 on 20/12/2021, since when it is undergoing healthy consolidation.
Three positive divergences occured during the period of 26/11/2021 to 18/01/2022.
Also, fundamentally, results have not declined at all to the comparable level of downfall in the prices.
Hence, it is a good price formation for upward journey from here on.
Disc.: Consult your financial advisor or apply your self study to take any investment decision on this counter.
Tidewater Continues Down For NowBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on September 3, 2021 with a closing price of 11.42.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 11.3 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.346% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 10.788% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 20.044% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 4 trading bars; half occur within 19 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 29 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Tidewater - Reversal of a 10-year long downward trendA new oil prices bull market should favor small & micro cap equities of the oil & gas sector, which reached depressed levels after a 10-year downward trend, giving them the risk-return profile of call options.
We consider that the risk-reward offered by Tidewater, despite its very volatile price, is more than attractive given its low valuation and its growth potential in a new oil bull market.
Disclaimer : I am long TDW.