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TIME AT MODE IN CRUDE OIL DAILY MARCH 18 2021 818AM ESTHere's a quick TREND ANALYSIS using a simple method I like to call "TIME AT MODE" in the current crude oil market. I'm using the April 2021 futures contract to do the daily analysis. FIRST, notice that the crude oil market has not made a new high in over 5-days. That observation makes me look for downside trades in crude oil by first finding the "mode" since the high and then working from there. Here are the steps to analyze the setup. ///////////// Here's a CLOSER look at $CLJ2021 April Crude Oil ONCE there are 5-days without a new high, put a trend arrow at the peak, then work forward from there... From that first 5-days, there is a mode that I have labeled "4d" for 4-days at this price, which is the highest 4-day mode since the peak/start of the downtrend There is a RgExp decline that I have labeled with the yellow triangle, marking the start of the 4-day downtrend (which ends today) Since that first "trend day", the "RgExp down day" with the Yellow Triangle... there has been minimal follow-through and that has allowed the MODE to drop to the "7d" mode you see labeled there just under $65 at $64.96 (the high of the "lowest range" day last week on Wednesday). There is a chance that stocks are leading $USOIL down here, so it could just be taking its time or perhaps crude oil longs don't care about the drop in stocks now that the stimulus bill has passed. The 7-day mode hasn't confirmed yet by RangeExpanding down to kick off a new 7-day decline from the $64.96 level.... The RgExp level is where the market is down MORE TODAY than YESTERDAY'S RANGE... Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:18AM EST //////////// I will follow up this chart with another chart discussing the 7-day downside implications for Crude Oil. Simply stated, measure the "range around the mode" and project that price down from the highest point of the mode. That is your first target. The next possible target is 2x the range around the mode, projected down. Add that to your chart. Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:25AM EST
NYMEX:CLJ2021Short
by timwest
10
Tilson Moving Average (T3)T3 is one of the most accurate moving averages developed by Tim Tilson. Tilson Moving Average (T3) is a trend indicator with the advantage of having less lag than other ones. That is, a faster moving average. T3 is considered superior to traditional moving averages as it is smoother, more responsive and thus performs better in ranging market conditions as well. The T3 moving average is an indicator of an indicator since it includes several EMAs of another EMA. Unlike any other moving average, it also adds the volume factor. Tim Tilson is designed another superb movinh average called IE2 which integrates the linear regression into it.
Education
by ICFX
2
Time At Mode Methodology in $SPY Daily & WeeklyFrom the low in November in the 5% "lock-limit-down" move after the US Presidential Election, we begin a new UPTREND. I updated the trading chat room "Key Hidden Levels" with this analysis as the rally unfolded out of the December-January trading range that is shown where there are 20-days at one price. There were also 7-weeks at one price, which implies that the market would advance for both 20-days and for 7-weeks once it "disconnected" from that price. Disconnected means to "range expand away from" the mode and to trade with an entire range above the mode. You can see both did that where I have yellow and red arrows marking Day-1 and Week-1. The rally time has exhausted, and typically that means you have an amount of time equal to the rally to congest and test the mode. If the mode holds, then assume a larger uptrend. You can trade short for the next few days or the next few weeks, but keep in mind that I didn't analyze the monthly trend on this chart. Either way, I just wanted to show you how mechanically and mathematically we analyze trends in the "Key Hidden Levels Chat Room." Sidenote: We do use emotions too, but that's for another chart on another day. Cheers, Tim
AMEX:SPY
by timwest
8
Australian Dollar AUDUSD set up for a 10% rallyUsing a mechanical-only approach to analyzing the market can provide disciplined, unbiased and unemotional projections. The AUDUSD has been building a base down here for the last 9 months where every single month has traded between 0.75 and 0.764. The trend-indicator "RgMov" hit a new 44-bar high in early 2016 which pointed to opportunities to buy 11-week oversold (using CCI(11)) and two signals have occurred so far. We are close to a 3rd signal. The last 6 months have been a period of diminishing volatility as the monthly ranges have tightened. Notice the reduced ATR% line at the bottom. You can also see it in the size of the trading ranges on the monthly boxes. The potential fundamental lift here is for the expectation of a rebound in commodities as investors look for a Gov't led infrastructure spend here in the US. The "ENTRY LONG" for AUDUSD will take several steps, but I like my odds here even though the market hasn't started moving away from the "white box" "mode" on the chart. If we hold above the yellow line at .7476 the market is in very strong hands and if above .7640 there is a strong chance for acceleration up. If we see acceleration up, then you want to force yourself to jump on board and to be prepared to buy dips, as labeled in the green rally forecast to the "target zone" shown. Stop loss 0.7400 Target 0.84-0.87 Time frame: 3-7 months Tim 11/11/2016 .75519 last
Long
by timwest
7
Past VIX Spikes Analyzed from May 2011 to May 2013I have published this before, but this shows more examples of how you analyze the market for "Smart Money Buyers" that you can rely on. First you have to wait for a spike up in VIX of at least 5 points, then you wait for a pullback of 75% of that VIX spike. Plot the movement from the price low to the level the market was when the 75% retracement level was touched. Who buys when VIX is HIGH? Smart money. People with a lot of money to manage who need to buy when there are a lot of sellers. Major, long term buyers buy when VIX is high because that's when prices are low. That's how the market works. Why? I can explain, but first please thank TradingView for this amazing software which has allowed me to find this great piece of market information from analyzing the data that you can get here so easily and graph and manipulate to your heart's content. What I have also found in this data is that at the end of 2012 VIX was rising while stock prices were grinding higher, which implies SMART, LONG TERM buyers had a TON of stock to buy and wanted to buy it aggressively. I marked that extremely bullish setup with a purple box. The other boxes are marked in bright green so you can see the movement from the lowest low of the correction to the point where VIX had settled back 75% from its run-up. The way to utilize this information depends on your investing time frame. If you are a trader, I can see that there are some low risk entry points on pullbacks to the 75% price level, which is the top of the green box. Long term investors can rest assured that they are riding the trend when prices are above the bottom of the green box. More "history" of the 75% VIX retracement SUPPORT LEVEL to come in subsequent charts. Cheers. Tim 9:33PM Thursday 7/23/2015
AMEX:SPY
by timwest
9
DAX German Stock Index -Daily -"If the log rolls over". SELLDAX potential "smack down" from a 5-day time at mode signal ending on Thursday's close and note that the new 5-breakout-failure where a 5-day consolidation failed to lead to a new buy signal could be a sign of exhaustion up here ... A little drop and a sell signal is triggered (and CCI has crossed under +100 for a 4th time in this rally = typical of a bull market move. A main cause for concern is the "internal strength" of the rally as measured by my proprietary "range movement" indicator is saying this is a "weak rally" with a sub-par 50% retracement... So, I am looking to SELL under The previous 3-day lows and target 9080 minimum. 9291 last... If we get a range completely above the purple "6" rectangle area, then a new buy signal will register. Cover any shorts and go long.
INDEX:DEU40Short
by timwest
15