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Update to Dow Jones Industrials Time At Mode Back in 2015 I had published a chart with annual data for the Dow Jones Industrials. I will provide a link at the bottom. The research for this patterning is something I did myself by hand using pencil and paper back in the 1980's. These patterns show up in all time frames. There is plenty of room to enhance the research on this technique and a group of us gather in the chat rooms here at TradingView to discuss new trades that set up and point out when trades expire. Notice how these two grey boxes (which are both 50% drops in price) that expand wider in time from the 1960's to the 1980's and the 2000-2010's had a multi-year trend, followed by a monster crash (1987 was 40% and 2000 was 37%) and then just two+ years later there was a secondary bear market of 20% in 1990 and 22% in 2022. Keep in mind this is just for the DJ:DJI and not the Nasdaq Composite or S&P500 which were greater corrections. The 11-year time frame of the 1999-2011 pattern allows for an 11-year rally from 2012 (which was year 1 of the 11-year rally) shows that time expired. As you can see from the 1943-1962 trend, a smaller 5-year mode formed at the end of the 20 year trend and then the market peaked in 1972-1973 when time expired for the second, smaller mode. I had to reconstruct this chart after the data for the previous chart changed symbol. See the link below to see the original. I look forward to your additional research onto this pattern and its implications to the idea that we are in a similar period to 1993-1994 with rally years of 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 ahead of us. All the best, Tim October 19, 2024 3:31PM EST
Editors' picks
TVC:DJI
by timwest
14
SPX Key $ Levels | 70%+ Accuracy! | WednesdayNew price targets for Sep 25 using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy. Topics: - Today's Targets Overall we use stats and data pulled from a wide array of TradingView indicators and scripts so that I can have as much data as possible - even if it's unstructured or uncorrelated data. I then use AI and SOP's to systematically calculate a weekly and daily framework. My predictions are never 100% but ALL of them are mathematically proven to be 70%+ accurate historically or I wouldn't use them. Most indicators I use on my Data Dashboard chart has the stats in their associated boxes that I show during the recording if you'd like to verify yourself. Please leave me feedback as I am new to creating content and would like to improve. Personally I use these targets in combination with ICT Concepts to trade. Nothing I say is Financial Advice - Previous performance does not guarantee future success.
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Long
by DIY_Trades
DXY 1W Forecast until March 2025Consolidation below 106 will last until October 2024. Breakout will happen in October peaking at 111-112 followed by a retest (mid November 2024 - January 2025). Further upward movement + correction will happen in January-March 2025 between the top of 113-114 and the bottom of 105-ish. Consecutive HH and HL will be followed by rapid increase in pace of changes: time will shrink and levels will expand. This will mark the start of hard times of Greatest Depression in March 2025 sending all markets down and making USD the king.
INDEX:DXY
by discarding
Some Hopium for 2024 Cycle, Lets See How Well This Ages For FunComparing the 2 previous bull run cycles to the now current cycle using approximate scaling to compensate of overall size of each run. Notice the moving averages are relatively similar, also RSI, Stochastic and Aroon Indicators are in the same ballpark when considering scaling time for the higher capital size/price. Like most I felt we were further into the cycle but did consider the possibility if we were to drop and break the local parabolic curve we could just be setting up for a longer and larger bull cycle, especially since we had such an early start this time. Good hopium I suppose, and will see how good or bad this ages, will see if that scaling the chart will show some truth to my hypothesis, I am publishing this right after today's closing loss of the 200 MA on the Daily timeframe.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by SammyCasket
A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle ConceptHere we look at a quirky emoji infographic showcasing one of five potential Bitcoin cycle concepts. Using trend-based Fibonacci Time Extensions, I've drawn them since the inception of Bitcoin's first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2013 all-time high. These are then projected sequentially four times to 2025. While it seems simple, and not perfect, it appears to be quite effective and has not been invalidated to date. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why it's the first of five concepts (long & short Term) I'll explore and adapt alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset. Each fib range marks 1456 days with 728 being the halfway point of each sequence. Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat. We just passed the Halfway point in early Nov 2023. This current cycle is projected to end in Nov 2025. This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here: Enjoy!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #2)In this chart, we take a look at a second Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (2/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 linked below. This Concept #2 is an alternative 8-step cycle phase to my original concept. This zooms out further and takes Bitcoin from a greater 2-phase cycle perspective. This concept is for the long-term investor who aims to track major Bitcoin phases when time is not on their side. Treat each signpost phase as a ranged period mindset until the next is triggered. This is not to be conflicted with the original concept, however, another perspective. In this second concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2017 all-time high. From there it is projected sequentially again to 2026. The reasons for placement are through an observational nature in the structure of the cycles, or at least how I see it. From 2009 > 2011 > 2013 > 2017 as being marked one cycle, to 2017 > to now as a potential being marked as the second cycle. A repeat of this cycle however is on a larger scale. The ATHs to cycle lows across these two cycles are also noted as 2011's low from ATH was -93% whereas 2013 was 86%. Thus in 2017, it was -84% and to date 2022 is -76%. It appears that it is 1 larger drop proceeding by a lesser % drop. Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the noted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up relates to the major pivots across the start and end of the sequence. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching for. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset. Each fib range marks approximately 2900 days (8yrs) Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat. We are 8 weeks, 3 days until we hit the next phase (Climb the Wall of Worry) This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Dec 2025. This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
📈TON Breaks ATH: Eyes on $6-7 Target?🚀🔥🔍TON coin has recently shattered its all-time high (ATH) with a convincing candle on the weekly timeframe, marking a significant 32% move from the trigger candle. The uptrend appears to be continuing, with a potential next target range around $6-7 based on Fibonacci levels. If you bought at lower levels, it is advisable to hold for now. ✨Taking a glance at the annual pivot points, TON has reached the R2 level and seems to be consolidating. Observing the reaction at this level will be crucial in determining the next move. A break above R2 could indicate further upward momentum, while failure and a trigger candle might signal a potential sell-off. 📊The recent influx of volume into this coin over the past two weeks suggests strong interest from investors. If there's a reaction to the annual R2 level, monitoring the trendline drawn can provide insights. In case of a breakdown and confirmation candle, selling could be considered. 💥The RSI oscillator has entered overbought territory, signaling a potential sharp movement similar to the recent 30% surge. Fundamentally, TON is associated with the Telegram messaging platform. If you believe in the widespread adoption of this messenger, investing in its coin could be lucrative. 🛒Waiting for a pullback to the trendline with confirmation from a candle could be a viable strategy if you're still on the sidelines. Keep an eye on the market dynamics and react accordingly for potential profit opportunities. 🧠💼Just remember, jumping into trades too quickly before the main trigger can be risky. Always manage your money wisely and be aware of the risks involved.
Long
by itsparham96
A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #3)In this chart, we explore a third Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (3/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 or concept #2 (linked below). In this concept, we position Bitcoin within an unconventional greater two-cycle phase, where the current cycle, Cycle 2, contributes to a Supercycle. It offers a twist that may appeal to the more contrarian, as its approach is taken from the emotional 'Herd' perspective. We use this to examine investor sentiment as it often conflicts with price action and can provide moments of opportunities or reasons to prepare and avert risk. Unlike other concepts, each signpost should be viewed as a rolling emotional peak within that period, until the next is triggered. This chart is not to be confused with other concepts, however, it can be confluent whilst still being conceptually distinct. In this third concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally in 2020. From there it is then projected sequentially again up until 2030. The rationale behind this theory is based on the idea that originated from my first-ever TV-published chart (linked below) . The shift in Bitcoin's cyclical nature poses a possibility that most of Bitcoin's growth from the early stages (2009 to 2013) is now in a repetitive sequence. This could indicate signs at greater levels playing into larger growth, which then forecasts a longer-term bear market. Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the denoted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up closely correlates to the major pivots across Bitcoin's historical patterns. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish (short-term), cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This chart merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points and how Bitcoin can often play on emotion and sentiment-driven participants. Overall it is worth observing even without this concept as understanding timing and environmental circumstances can be just as crucial as managing risk or setting price targets. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: This chart is based on the 2-week timeframe as its projections are till mid-2030 With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib-time level (signpost) approximately triggers the next shift in the emotional phase. It is within a phase to anticipate the preceding signpost and observe the sentiment with the correct mindset. Each fib range marks approximately 3808 days (10.43yrs) Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, we will assess as I believe this concept could prove to be a new set of cycles. We are 2 weeks, and 3 days until we crossover the next signpost (The Fomo Sweats!) Crossing the next signpost does suggest that there is a 1-3 month period of rapid upside. This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Jun 2030. This is purely a concept and not certain and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
FIL 17.01.24In an environment where the market is generally positive, the halving is approaching, and finally interest rate cuts are discussed, FIL coin will also get its share. The rising trend (green line) will be the best place to buy, but since I do not want to wait, it would be best to buy in pieces, including these levels. It will be ready to fly when the 4-hour candle closes above the falling trend (red line) and retests. TP1 : 7.4 TP2 : 7.99 (psychological resistance) TP3 : 8.61 What I write here serves as a note to myself. Does not include investment advice.
Long
by BarbarKalyon
GBPUSD - Extended into the 61.8% area. OANDA:GBPUSD Has extended higher into the 61.8% level @ 1.2720. Now with other USD pairs we look at the DXY to see if its going to hold these levels or break in which case we will see higher Indices, Gold & USD Pairs. Big couple of days ahead. If it breaks these levels then the 78% & 1.2900 would be the next target.. With other straight line moves its best to wait for a top to come in and break then Sell the first 382 PB. Will be keeping an eye on this one.
Short
by L_F
2