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Follow Up to March 19th Fibonacci Time Scale IdeaI published an Idea on March 19th pointing out the occurrence of BTC crashes on Fibonacci time scale lines. Most everyone using TA uses Fibonacci levels for retracement and extension of price right? So are Fibonacci time based markers useful? If the projected time range (May 12-16) produces another "event" then I'd say so. Stay tuned... In the meantime, I've been looking at alot of TA since the BTC turnaround and much of what I read wants to define the price movement LINEARLY through "channels" and "Wedges". When I look a the same data I mostly see CURVES. I see non-linear movement. This becomes, to me, more apparent when looking at much longer time frames. On this graph there are three curves that I've fit to the price movement. #1 and #2 are somewhat flexible depending on the chosen points but #3 fits really well. What I am interested in seeing from here is how well (or not) price follows the curve(s) and then how price/curves/Fibonacci time line all intersect. This is NOT a predicition. I see things that I find interesting/not the norm in TA sometimes and I share them. Do with it what you will. As always, comments are welcome and I hope that your BTC count increases!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by drake7
Everybody is bullish again. That's because their not seeing thisHi friends, First of, I am actually bullish long term. However, short term we do still have some hurdles to conquer. For this reason, I still remain neutral to bearish short term. So let's take a look at what I've got here. You can see that Litecoin has fallen out of an important ascending channel (outlined in BLACK). At almost the same time, we also fell back under the 200dma. We're also under 58 on RSI, an important number as is 54, which we're currently just under and flirting with. My suspicion is that little Litecoin just wants to kiss daddy 50 and mommy 200 one last time before a final send off into next year. Be ready for that final discount window to open buyers. Peace and happy trades.
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by stewdamus
6
Interesting Curve FittingBack on March 19, 2018 I published an idea that simply pointed out the unique alignment of BTC price crashes with the Fibbonacci time scale. We refer to the Fibbonacci levels all the time regarding price levels so maybe the time component has something to reveal as well? Since the recent price reversal I see alot of TA that uses "channels" and "wedges" to establish boundaries for and to predict price movement. When I look at the same charts I see curvature, not linearity. I have fitted 3 curves to the 4hr price chart to highlight what I see. Curves #1 and #2 can be changed slightly depending on chosen endpoints but they wont vary by much. Curve #3 however is a really good fit and its so interesting to me how it so nicely fits with the bottoms of price movement. My Fibbonacci time target is only a few days ahead of us now and I am so very interested in seeing IF that day (range) holds any surprises AND how the curvature I've pointed out plays out as we hit the Fibonacci date(s). This idea is NOT a prediction. I like to share some of what I see and find interesting. Thoughts and comments are always welcome.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by drake7
New Bitcoin Buy Zone Identified! 7.5-8k I'm sorry for the messy chart folks. I do a lot of work on my charts trying to get these calls right. Let's go through some of this stuff and I'll show you what I've come up with. First off, one of the reasons why I put off posting this chart was: -A) because the Head-and-Shoulders that I'm about to show you was still so incomplete and -B) with all that bullish sentiment here on TradingView I was not sure that it would complete. So we were in an uptrend channel (PURPLE). Even with that momentum, the charts were showing me we'd probably not go much higher than 9.5-10k. Why? See that BLUE down-trending line? That's been there since mid-Jan and the bullish momentum already seemed to be fading around 9.3k. But even if we did break the BLUE, above it on the DAILY stood the 200dma, a formidable foe for those bulls to be sure. It stood at 10k. Ole' BLUE was tested and the bulls knocked their heads so hard up against it that it sent them down and out of the PURPLE channel. A bearish sign to be sure. But this was just the start. It also helped to confirm that another bearish signal was forming and that is the Head-and-Shoulders you see. Now if we break that neckline, it should take us down to the 200dma (on the 4hr now) or lower. I have outlind your buy target zone in the chart. One more thing to mention. See my RSI chart? I noted about half a year or so ago that ole' Bitcoin likes it's 60 day cycles. Sometimes these cycles are extended, such as was the case in the beginning of this year. But I think I have found it attempting to get back on track. Whereas last year the cycles were 75% bullish (meaning the first 45 days were UP and the last 15 days were DOWN), this year I have found that so far the cycles are 50/50 bull/bear. So, the first 30 days seem to cycle UP and the last 30 DOWN. Tomorrow, May 1st, marks the halfway point of this cycle. It could be something, and then maybe not. Nevertheless, I thought I'd throw this theory out there for you all to consider. We'll see what happens here, but for now I've cast my buy nets in the green target zone IF that neckline breaks. Good luck all and happing trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
1
Breakthrough the down channel to happen on May the 5th. Upon my calculations, using the below techniques I'm estimating an important impulsive movement, which likely will be UP direction, and should happens on 05.05.2018. Methods used: -ROC crossing MA. -2 x Fibonacci trend zone. Minimums and maximums appoints both to the same date! -ESCGO by Lazzy Bear indicators. Helps locating price cycles in time. -Fibbonacy Channels. -Simple horizontal support/resistance analysis. -Angled support/resistance analysis. -Structures. Yet, non of all of these together can be useful if you don't have a plan. Trade your own plan :) Good luck to everyone ! Th.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by thor08
New Triangle and Death Cross Spotted for poor little LitecoinFriends, critics, foes. A few days ago I made the prediction that little litecoin would break out of that first purple triangle you are seeing here on my charts. That it did. I was confident that it would go up rapidly. Not so much. Here's what I missed and why litecoin is baulking a bit at this upwards move. I knew the 200dma was ahead, however, because I am not an elite "PRO" member here on TV, I was not permitted to also have the 50dma indicator (a basic member restriction) on my chart. It was not until I changed my MA time frame that I noticed the 50dma exactly where the 200dma was ...and crossing! When a downward 50ma crosses and upward 200ma, this is known as the "Death Cross", a bearish indicator. Additionally, I was observing that other analysist had been drawing another triangle on their charts. This one with a higher top than my first. I have drawn this new triangle on my chart. Notice how it also intersects exactly at the point of the Death Cross. I don't think I have to tell you that this is not a good sign. I know that I was fairly bullish in my previous post. And I had good reason to be. I did make good money on this trade, however, I am redacting my previous statement regarding holding for the long term as I am now doubting whether or not this is the longer term bottom. I am also lowering my sell target to between $140-$150 with these newly discovered indicators. I do plan on selling in this range. I will not become bullish again until we both break above this second triangle AND cross over at least one (preferrably both) of these significant moving averages. Stay safe. Peace and happy trading my crypto friends.
COINBASE:LTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
10
GBP/CHF- Fun with charts....Ok...... So I spent some more time to go over gchf since it has extended. I would like to point out that it did a W-X-Y double combo pattern in the form of 7 swings. For this pattern you would expect equal length to 1.236 extension. Hit 1.236 today, along with the .764, which would also be conducive with a continuing pattern which would need to come down to most likely that .618(longer .618 line) Keep in mind GU hit the high also. It also lines up (roughly) with about equal time span of each pattern within the combo. These pitchforks are not necessarily drawn how anyone else would draw them, but take a minute to really look at the medians (red lines) and how price follows them...... Anyways strong level. I've looked sells lower down looking for a different pattern, or at least a sharp 3 wave this move, but all it did is keep extending, right to the fib extension. The issue is as of right now we have no reversal pattern or ending diagonal, plus Gchf could go into a large sideways consolidation (which would still probably produce a nice sell). We might even get a zone bounce (see horizontal green lines). The daily TDI WAY over extended. So is the weekly. Just please keep in mind this is not a 5 min chart... That is the daily..... We have nothing but a 4hr pin bar right now. There are different ways to go about attempting this trade and not put yourself at too much risk. If you want to learn about price action along with this stuff then subscribe and watch my you tube channel. I did a live trading session earlier, I go over a lot of charts... (it's free guys)...
Short
by thillygoosth
Euro/Yen Bullish Triangle CorrectionAfter the bullish 5 wave pattern, it looks a little bit like a corrective triangle pattern has begun to form. D Wave. With the completion of a double top pattern at the 136 zone, the D wave of the triangle pattern will have met its 61.8% Fib Level requirement along the triangle trendline. E Wave The location of the projected 61.8% retracement from the D Wave endpoint seems logical because that is where price can be expected to run out of momentum Only time will tell
by DreamLife_Obi
BTC bullish long-term outlook and correction end (Daily/Weekly)Hello All! While monitoring the current BTC correction, I stumbled upon a very interesting idea from: www.tradingview.com First of all, I analyzed it from volume dynamics point of view. Then I saw some repeating similarities over certain periods of time as well as possible confirmation of classic definition of "previous resistance becoming support (and vice versa)". Even though, this is not any type of Wolfe waves I'm usually working with, but rather pure speculation of "what if" scenario for me, the more I looked at it the more it felt like a real possibility. Thus, I decided to share the final result of my research with all of you. Good luck and great trading to everyone!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by OceanBlue
2
S&P 500 Index: SPX Longer Term Gann Cycles - Cycle High and Low SandP 500 Index Longer Term Gann Time Cycles Probably the greatest trader who ever lived, WD Gann , taught us to measure time cycles - from high to low and low to high as well as high to high and low to low - and look for potential changes in trend as these hiddden cycles tend to repeat themselves down through time. Previous cycle highs identified the exact date of the high in 2007 as well as the subsequent high reached in April 2015 just at the point that markets began a 10 month 20+% correction (for more details please PM) . This current cycle marks the period from 20.03.00 high (as Internet v1 peaked) through to the next major cycle low on 06.03.09. From major cycle high to low is 9 years, almost exactly...which now brings us, after a 9 year long bull run, to the coming 23 to 27 days, culminating in the anniversary dates between 3rd march and 10th March 2018... So if the lows of last week are broken on Monday we can most likely expect the decline to last for the next 23 to 27 days, culminating in a major cycle low between 3rd and 10th March 2018. Major markets have a challenging 23 to 27 days ahead of them. Time is piling up. If the SandP breaks below 2525 and holds below here by Monday's close we can expect further pressure on markets until we reach the anniversary dates. It will be interesting to see if Gann's great cycles remain as accurate now as they have done in the past. As always, time itself will tell us that answer. In fact Monday will.
SP:SPX
by sumastardon
1
$AMZN - Amazon is "OUT OF RALLY TIME" using Time@Mode Amazon has rallied for 15 weeks into last week's close after accumulating at the mode back this past fall for 15 weeks. In other words: Amazon has "run out of time". Once Amazon blasted off on its previous earnings report back in October, it kicked off a 15 week rally which ran far beyond the rally that was implied by the previous move from $766 (where it lingered for 17 weeks in 2016 and had a 22 week rally out of that accumulation). A move from $766 to $980 was 29% and the implied rally from $980 was also 29%, but it ran up over 50% (see chart). Now that $AMZN has reached $1498, the PSR reached 4 times (an extreme reading) while the free cash flow yield has fallen to 1%, which means that the $7 billion in free cash flow is only 1% of the $700 billion in market cap for Amazon. Growth over the coming decade will help drive up that yield, but right now that is the return you would earn if you took Amazon private. Using the Time@Mode methodology, together with Key Earnings Levels stemming from quarterly earnings reports and raw and relative valuation analysis, we can see here that Amazon has "RUN OUT OF TIME" on a weekly basis for this rally and would only expect it to move sideways to down over the upcoming 15 week time frame as a new level of consolidation builds as the fundamentals "catch up". For now: It is opportunistic to sell short $AMZN with 5%-10% downside targets. Cover and re-short on 75% rebounds as many times as possible for the next 14 weeks. Tim 12:41PM EST February 7, 2018 $1439 last $AMZN
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by timwest
19