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Timeanalysis

SLV is presenting a buying opportunityTechnically while I am long SLV in the big picture I think there may a little but of downside left to complete a healthy retracement. The tool I've used here depends on identifying divergence (in this case MFI but RSI is fine as well), you then measure the duration of that divergence, and lastly project it (duration) off the price low (as this is bearish divergence) within the period the divergence was identified. The notion is that this is the average time it will take for that low to be tested. What this means is that we *may* see a low in SLV on 8/14 and the general price range I'm looking for is 21.4 - 20.84 (prior low and pivot point) with a .618 retracement of the massive rally falling in that range. If the .618 retracement doesn't hold I will then look at the .5 mark visible on the graph. Please ask if you have any questions.
AMEX:SLVLong
by TNasr
ETH: $200 Short Target, Potential $155 RetracementFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously, or as financial advice. That being said, let us get into my insights. Looking at Fibonacci circles, there is a potential negative retracement back to a $155 price point, given that Ethereum looks like it could follow a small negative correlation wave. This is why I think, so likely it is best to shorten at $200 and see if there is a market dip. As it looks like it may potentially be tipping this positive correlation wave. A bearish trend could happen, so I'm not sure a long hold would maximize profits over other cryptos (Such as BTC).
GEMINI:ETHUSDShort
by gamer456148
5
Parabola exhaustion imminentBased on the current momentum of the parabola, we should be at $20k by April 28th 2019, assuming we go back in time. If we do, that's great, everyone will be rich today assuming we go forward in time after we roll back. If we continue to go back in time, we could honestly be at $100k by December 17th 2017, back when BTC originally topped out at $20k. In all seriousness, this parabola is getting exhausted. The two white lines I have drawn indicate at what point the parabola goes literally beyond 90 degrees, something impossible in mathematics as there can only be one output for every input. Then again this autistic parabola I've drawn isn't exactly derived from a mathematical equation to begin with. It's just a curve.
BShort
by steven76
Bitcoin USD Total Technical Analysis / FIB channel/ EW/ TimeDear HodlCrypots, Let me start off by saying that this won’t be an easy read and I truly hope it won’t be. Trading is something serious and needs a lot of time and effort before you can find your own unique way of trading and earning money. This is my way of thanking this community by not only taking my time to make and publish this idea but also by putting my own unique idea out there that truly might matter and possibly save you a lot of money. Now with all things, nothing is certain and always expect the worst. I might therefore be wrong, because in the end we are all crypto students in this relatively new and fast pased world. Enough of this idealistic nonsense. Let’s return to the materialistic world. The one-million-dollar question remains: did we have a true bottom @3130 USD or not? The only thing we know for certain is that we dropped 84 percent just months ago from the all-time high (ATH). Observing the ‘bullish’ move we made from December 2018 until now (8th of May 2019) got me thinking. Did we truly start a new bull market? Or is this a corrective move? If it is a corrective move, then precisely which move are we correcting while we are going up? In this thought process I tried to look at the underlying core structures that is identical to bitcoin (and bitcoin only) and I tried as much as I possibly can to get rid of any bias that I had. I tried to find clear cut structures, both time and price based. While looking at it with objective thoughts I found interesting movements and conditions of bitcoin that I then used to create a long-term scenario to verify that the bottom is in or not, because basically that’s what we are all interested about right? When I inserted this new found data or structures into the present-day situation I found so much confluence as well as in price as in time that I was utterly surprised. Simply put I didn’t expect this to be the outcome. Before I start, I must mention that this way of doing technical analysis is not the conservative way that market analysts do technical analysis. Usually they stick to horizontal trend line trading based on previous supports and resistances on the chart or they use unique indicators. But combining fib channels to force correct fib retracement levels on a logarithmic scale and doing technical analysis based on that, is just something unique in that perspective and I came across only a handful of traders and investors that approach this crypto market with this in my opinion very effective instrument. Combining fib channels on log scale with Elliot Wave (EW) counting and time analysis is in my opinion a holy trinity in crypto. Behavioral analysis 1: Underlying corrective structures and EW labeling for the structure First let’s start with the basics and getting the most important data out of the previous 2 bear markets. Two yellow lines and 1 red line. Bitcoin prints a horizontal yellow line, a red diagonal line leading into an incorrect bear market bottom and 1 yellow diagonal line which eventually lead to the true bottoms in 2011 and 2015. I presented both counts in this chart, either the wxyxz or simple abc (let's keep it simple with abc as it does not matter long-term), the most important part is the middle B part in both charts are both a 95%-99% gain move and they both cross the diagonal yellow line. The conditions in this structure to define the B is as follows: 1. Define the incorrect bear market bottom diagonal red from the ATH, the A ends here 2. Define the most important horizontal support yellow and diagonal yellow, this will be the most basic path of the B and C 3. The proposed B should be around 95-99% 4. The proposed B should cross the yellow diagonal line Using these conditions, we get the following correction in our current bear market: Behavioral analysis 2: Fib channel structures logarithmic scale horizontal and diagonal Now on to find the price bottoms. As you can see, if we put a horizontal fib channel from the ATH to our proposed a, the c ended both times exactly on the 1.618. The diagonal fib channel is also useful to help with the combination of price/time analysis when trying to find the true bottom since it both times at least went in the area between the diagonal -0,618 and -0,786, but I will get into this later in much more detailed manner. Regarding the B, it reversed either around the 0,382 (reversed 0,618) or 0,5. Also notice that in 2011 if the A is a 1 inside the horizontal fib channel, the C travels within the channel from the 0,618 to the 1,618 making it also identical to the A. This way the length of the A = length of the C in a logarithmic way. For 2013-2015 it’s also almost the same. A = 1 B = 0,5 C = 1,618 making the C also almost the length of the A in a logarithmic way (1,618-0,5 = 1,118). The conditions in this structure to define the bottom is as follows: 1. Define the A and draw a horizontal fib channel from the ATH to the proposed A. 2. The B should end around 0,382 (reverse 0,618) or 0,5 3. The place where the B ends should be at a major horizontal resistance 4. The price level on which the C ends should be between the diagonal fib channel between -0,618 and -0,786. 5. Look for confluence with the proposed C target with major supports from the entire bull market move prior to the bear correction. For example, we ended 2013-2015 correction in price area between the previous orange (iii) ATH and (iv). The 2011 correction ended in a horizontal fib channel in an exact 0,382 retracement from low to 2011 ATH. Using these conditions, we get the following correction in our current bear market: Notice the 0,786 and 0,382 are both to be seen in the grander scheme of things. The 0,786 (reversed 0,236) is the fib horizontal channel from ATL to ATH of 20k. The 0,382 retracement (reversed 0,618) is the horizontal fib channel retracement of our last bull market cycle marking our 4 to the 5 of our grand (1). It is also the price level where the green 3 and 4 are to be found of the previous count of our (1) and it is almost identical to the style of correction of the first 12 in 2011. Behavioral analysis 3: Time analysis Now that we have found a price pattern, we can finally start searching for our important time levels. Once you have defined the A and the B the C is the easiest one to get in both bear markets. A trend-based fib time pull from the start of the A to the end of the A projected from our proposed B will need to lead to a MAX BEAR MARKET TIME correction of between 1.618 and 1.75. So, let’s see what happens if we put this assumption into test in 2011 and 2013-2015. This is a near perfect fit (1,618 price wise and 1,618-1,75 time wise). The previous 2 bear markets did indeed end max of 1,75 (second white vertical line). Now notice that we are trying to find the end of the bear market based on what it did (also on what we know) during the bear market. If we try to implement this same process to define the end of our current bear market based on what it did during this bear market, we get the following projection. Now we don’t just have a price level, we also got a date. Bitcoin has until the end of January 2021 (max bear market time) to correct itself and to find a true and lasting bottom. But what about our current bullish situation? What about our B? When does this upward movement end? Well, if we assume the B corrects the A move, we should find a pattern of the B timewise from the A. If we implement this way of thinking we find the following results. In 2011 the B corrected until the 1.272 (0,272 from the A). From there it went all the way to 2.99. 2.99-1.272=1.718 (notice that it is not 1.618, but a specific number between 1.618 and 1.75). If we think the same way to find our B and C in 2013-2015. We find that the B corrected until the 1.414 (0,414 from the A). From there it went all the way to 3.132. 3.132-1.414=1.718 (notice again that it is 1.718!). One thing I can’t forget is that it went 0,272 in the first bear market, and it went 0,414 in the second. Now that we are in the third major bear market, I get to think that perhaps we will put the B somewhere between the 0,414 and the 0,5 from the A movement. If we think like this, we get the following reading in our present-day bear market. The following dates for the end of our B can be 14th of May (1.414 from the A) or 15th of June (1.5 from the A). If it does end in 14th of May the end of our bear market is visible at 3.132 (1.718 from the presumed B that is put in 1.414=3.132). Of course, if the B moves and ends at the 1.5 and not at the 1.414 the maximum end date of the bear market shifts accordingly. Knowing that the 6k-6.3k (also coincides with 0,618 retracement or 0,382 reversed) level is very strong resistance there is a strong possibility that the B can end at the 1.414 level on 14th of May. Behavioral analysis 4: Elliot wave on the proposed B If we apply Elliot wave theory on the bitcoin chart, we see a clear view of a B wave that is about to end in a clear 3 wave pattern wherein the C of the proposed B is much longer and stronger than the A. Being bitcoin though I see a test of the 0,5-fib level price wise at around 15th of May as no violation of this assumption since it’s a B and a B can technically end at around sub 20k. The question is: is it likely that it will retrace to 20K? I think not, the area of price level action will probably be more like this area. We are most probably in the 5th wave of the C of the major B. There isn’t much more room left before we enter the third phase of the bear market. Behavioral analysis 5: Elliot Wave major structure and cross-examining our findings Now it’s time to try to answer the one-million-dollar question: did we have a true bottom @3130 USD? To examine it we need to know where the markets previously bottomed out in relation to the bull market that preceded it. If we look at the year 2011 and the years 2013-2015, we notice the following. They both bottomed out at the 1,5 and 1,55 respectively in relation to their previous bull market. If we do the same thing in the present-day bear market based on the previous bull market, we see the following. Notice that in December 2018 we were nowhere near the yellow vertical 1,5 and 1,55 level. But keep this yellow vertical time line in your mind because I will get back to this later. We are probably based on that idea not even correcting the previous bull market of January 2015 until December 2017. Then what are we correcting exactly? Most probably the entire bull market from price level 0 prior to the year 2010 to just under price level 20.000 USD ATH in December 2017. It also makes a lot of sense that the 2 major bear markets that we have seen could possibly be a 2 and a 4 correction in an impulsive 1 move up consisting of a 12345-wave count pattern. Let’s have a closer look at that count. Now let’s put that theory to the test. If it’s correct, then the top of the entire move from the start of bitcoin until the December 2017 ATH must be the 1. The 2 usually retraces 0,618 but to speak of a correction the 2 or the retracement of the 1 must be a minimum of 1,236 / 1,382 or looking at the way Bitcoin behaves on the logarithmic chart the 1,414. If we enter this data in the chart, we get the following view. Now notice how the 1.414 completely overlaps the date of January 2021. To some extend the same can be said about the 1.382. What else is important? That we are nowhere near the minimum of 1.236 with date of September 2019. Besides, there is one more overlapping left to mention and that is the length of the previous bull market projected from the ATH date of December 2018. Remember the vertical yellow line that I told you to keep in mind? Notice how the vertical yellow line 1 to 1 projection or simply put the 2 of that yellow line also overlaps the dates previously mentioned. What is also important, is that if it does overlap the length of the previous bull market then by definition it can’t be a correction of that length since it goes beyond it, so you have to conclude that it’s a correction for a much bigger count, beyond the previous bull market that it is currently correcting. Behavioral analysis 6: NVT signal considering these findings There is one more thing I would like to add to further support the idea that we are probably only halfway through the bear market. The NVT signal. I think this is a very reliable instrument for bitcoin, yet people stubbornly disregard it while it has proven to be correct during times other instruments proved very misleading. Or people don’t disregard it, but they simply fail at considering the consequences it has on a presumed bottom @ 3130 USD. Currently it’s giving a clear warning that there is much more significant downside to be expected. Considering the previously mentioned findings, the warning signals of the NVT make sense, especially if we are truly resetting the entire move of bitcoin. The NVT signal is then warning us about the possible B top of the ABC path of a major 2 reset, something it hasn’t printed before. Conclusion: To finally answer the one-million-dollar question: no, the bottom is not in. The bear market can’t be over, let alone be over we are probably on the brink of entering the worst C wave of the bear market. This means price watching sub 6.5k probably for years to come, by first putting the bottom in and then taking its time surpassing the 6k in the next bull market. Furthermore, we are probably resetting the entire bullish phase of bitcoin since its existence. Not because I want it to, but because the structures are hinting towards it. This sounds scary but this will undoubtedly be the chance of a life time for individuals (like me) who do not belong to the fortunate group of early adopters who got in cheap. Now why would I call it a once in a life time opportunity? Because based on the fact that we are completely resetting the whole bullish move to 20k, this means that if we find our bottom, and I’m thinking it will be near or a little bit under the 1000 USD value at around January 2021 then we are about to see a bull market that enters count 3 of the Elliot wave which is often the longest but never the shortest of the impulsive moves. That will be a fantastic buy or long opportunity for all of us. I hope this idea has been of any value to you. If it did, I am glad it did. If it didn’t, I hope you can contribute more to the community by publishing better ideas so I can read them. Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I am an individual who likes to do technical analysis and share his personal ideas with the community.
BNC:BLX
by HodlCrypot
5
BTC Time and Price Analysis In this analysis I will go in the order of long-short term charting and try to explain in depth as simple and short as I can, feel free to comment below , Enjoy. So first off, what we have here is a WXY correction(Double three combination correction)e.g www.elliottwave.net And we currently have an ending diagonal triangle forming as of now e.g www.futuresmag.com Now we proceed to our price targets of the year , we now find the possible fib retracement targets Btc has for 2018 with the use of trend based Fib Taking the highs of 19k, lows of 6k , and the retracement up to 10k to find our possible last target for wave Y, which lies at the 0.5 retracement of around 4900 We then use the highs of wave b, lows of wave c, and highs of wave d to calculate possible fib retracements for our final wave E which lies at the likely target of 5160, Hence my recommended buy zone is from 4900-5160 for long term hold. Time analysis We now dive into time analysis where we take the swing high of wave b, swing low of c , and swing high of d to find the time approximate for wave E, a minimum target of 1:1-1.618(common retracement) is given in this chart which is from around September 13 to October 13. The 1.618 time retracement coincidentally meets with not only the trend line that led me to the assumption of retracement of 4900 but also meets with the 1.618 time retracement area. Hence in a nutshell my targets for lows of this year are anywhere from 4900-5100 area and i believe it will happen around October periods Hope it helped you !! Happy trading. DISCLAIMER:I am not a financial advisor and these are just my own personal opinions to give you more exposure to your last decision on whether to short or long Thank you .
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by noobtrade232
Bitcoin's possible moves to its fall targetHere I compare price behavior in two types of intervals whilst comparing the 2014 & 2018 bear marketing starting from the new year. Jan-Oct 2014 bear market: Red periods averaged 11.4% moves whilst Purple periods averaged 12.2% moves (from period candle close to close). Red periods saw twice as well downward moves, meanwhile Purple periods were 3.5x likely to be downward moves. Jan-Oct 2018 bear market: Red periods averaged 22% moves whilst Purple periods averaged 30% moves (from period candle close to close).
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by ikeel
Back To basics, Nifty analysis for short term Title of this idea is Back to basics and reason behind this is I am using my most favourite system of analysis after big gap. Important points are already mentioned on the chart. Will love to mention few more. 1. One can use 9EMA high/low for entry exit. 2. Another option is to use intraday swing tops and bottoms 3. Third option is to use channels for entry or exit We are resistance point on price and at trend changer date too. In past the performance of published dates is good hence will expect to deliver in future too. Below mentioned dates will be imp in future according to my analysis. All dates to be considered +/-2, format is MM/DD/YYYY 11/28/2017 12/11/2017 12/24/2017 1/6/2018 1/19/2018 2/1/2018 2/14/2018 2/27/2018
NSE:NIFTY
by dhananjay.d.joshi
1
BTC Time IndicatorCorrection time. FOMO is driving this pump with Media blasts about the recent ATH. We will get a break out in the the next few hours however, down will be the ultimate movement by the end of Sunday the 3rd. This is not advice. I don't need to be right or wrong. I don't care if the market goes up or down. Make your Own analysis and trade off of that. If you have positive, constructive criticism and wish to share Please do. Agreeing or Disagreeing is not personal and is welcomed in a positive way. Don't crack out on BTC 1.63% too long and remember to go outside and climb a tree or something. Happy trading ~Ji
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by JohnnyJi
1