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SPY: Sentiment resetIn this chart I plotted the period following a sub 25% AAII bulls reading, followed by a sharp rise to 55% bulls at the peak in April 2021. We now reset back down to sub 25% this week, so we might be watching a 'coiled spring' situation in equities. This is not so easily seen in $SPY as the $AAPL performance as of late distorts how equities acted for the majority of people. I included the performance of my trading strategy in the period of rising sentiment, and during the last period with deteriorating sentiment. I expect to make outsized gains again as we get a period of steady trends once more. Note I actually caught the bottom in Nasdaq overall, but the gains from that outperformance round were retraced recently with a series of short term losses. Best of luck, try to milk the good times ahead. Outsized gains away, potentially. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
10
$AUDUSD: Both the dollar and Yuan pair are bullish...Historically, signals happening in both pairs suggest a good outcome for long trades in the Aussie dollar. I've caught a move before, when a weekly trend was expiring on the downside in $AUDCNH, and we rode a few nice moves up in $AUDJPY and $AUDUSD then. We now have a second chance at a similar juncture, while also the $DXY is at the end of a weekly uptrend in time, and sitting below the target it recently hit, which is right into a long term resistance level from the quarterly chart, so odds for people fading the dollar against strong currencies are above average currently. I'm long $GBPUSD, adding $AUDUSD to my short dollar basket in my FX account. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
$BTCUSD: Daily trend is now up again potentially....This means we have a chance of triggering a 2 week timeframe uptrend signal if price breaks over 53k ish before Jan 3rd. The 2 month timeframe trend, which has historically drove $BTCUSD's main cycle suggests the market is bullish until May 2022, and the current juncture allows for a move up to confirm, which would last until mid May give or take. This is a good confluence of short, mid and long term timeframes, paired with a low risk technical entry to rejoin the trend. Definitely worth a shot, since the minimum upside we get is a move to 58.3k by Jan 1st, which in itself is a trade with over 5 to 1 reward to risk. A move under 47k would nullify this theory and suggest the scenario where price grinds down towards 21k is in the cards... There's additional support from the yield curve slightly steepening as of late, with 10 year yields looking ready to climb back up, and Crude oil bottoming potentially, same as equities overall. Manchin negotiating is a different thing than altogether rejecting the Build Back Better plan, which was what the market was pricing in. Omicron being a mild disease for the vaccinated, and the US not closing schools of businesses is a lot less worse than what the market feared too. Perhaps this recent weakness was merely rolling of options and hedges forward into the future, as we had a huge amount of options and futures expirations last Friday, which sent shockwaves across markets even into Monday's price action. With that out of the way, the market caught a bid, and liquidity started to return. Seeing $VIX move lower under 20.49 next would be extra positive. Keep an eye out for my Twitter updates, as I post content there regularly, more often than publications themselves. I'll try to update this one as we go forward while the trade is valid. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
4
$EURJPY: Daily uptrend once again...Seems like yields have bottomed in the US, we got a shot at a reflationary/reopening move thanks to the recent wave of news surrounding Omicron and the $PFE/$MRK pills, together with a nice sentiment reset for the past month across the board. I'd suggest going long XXXJPY here, I'm in $GBPJPY and $EURJPY personally, but $AUDJPY also has a nice signal as well and historically correlates equities, in particular in periods like what could unfold next. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
#OIL: Monthly trend active...daily trend is downThe daily down trend signal that triggered today indicates we might get a retracement in the existing monthly uptrend in $WTICOUSD. Oil futures would be a great buy once the current fall slows down and reverses, so I'll keep my eyes wide open waiting for cues to go long into monthly support (see the green arc area). Upside over the long term is huge, so, it is of paramount importance to rejoin this trend when safe. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$UPST: Long way down...I think $UPST is poised to fall hard from here, for a good while, back to the start of the crazy uptrend we had since August 2021. I've personally managed to capture a great upside trade, and now moved into speculating on the downside here...I've shared these with my signals service clients in real time, and also commented on it in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom here. There's a chance the company's business model is fraudulent, and it had an unbelievably crazy upside move recently, which strikes me as a bubble that is bursting. I am not seeing a rational way to justify the valuation it commands and it has a weak to non existent moat when compared against $SOFI or other lenders...Using AI as a buzzword isn't a good enough reason. Their default rates could end up being much worse than they anticipate based on their models too. Anyways, from a technical perspective, this is a good chance to short the stock given that the weekly uptrend signal that predicted the rally the stock had has expired, and it implies a potential move back down to the start of the trend if weakness ensues. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:UPSTShort
by IvanLabrie
8
$ZB_F: Uptrend signal activeWe now have a good signal here indicating bonds can rally substantially in the coming weeks. I've bot a bull call spread to capture the upside here, expiring on Dec 10th, for the March contract. It allows me to fine tune risk and maximize gains if the trade works in a way that an outright futures long position wouldn't. If you can, join on Monday on dips, if making a higher high, be ready to pay up. It's a good hedge for your portfolio in case of carrying long oil positions like I do. Cheers, Ivan.
CBOT:ZBH2022Long
by IvanLabrie
$BIIB: Update, get long!I think it warrants making a new publication here, $BIIB has flashed a buy signal with tremendously good reward to risk, as it can resume the long term trend that can take it over $1600-2600 over time. Phase 3 clinical trials have gone really well for their Alzheimer's treatment 'Aduhelm', putting it in line with results obtained by $LLY's drug 'Donanemab'. I was long $LLY and have been trading in and out of $BIIB trying to time the end of the long slide since the FDA approval news came out. I think the time is now, to get in and sit tight. I've banked my $LLY exposure, but both companies will likely do well with their Alzheimer's treatments going forward and have solid trends, but the reward to risk favors $BIIB, so I'm only long Biogen currently. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
NASDAQ:BIIBLong
by IvanLabrie
$FB: Long here...I think we now have a decent setup in the company formerly known as Facebook. There were some sick runs in the $META etf and names like $RBLX, $NVDA, $U, gaming/metaverse related cryptocurrencies, etc. Some of that money can go back into $FB here, which hasn't moved as much, and has a nice base showing accumulation by smart players. Long term, the chart is still in an active quarterly timeframe trend, so there's plenty of time and upside left in the stock. Daily offers a good reward to risk entry to join that trend. If price holds up from here and doesn't breach the area below $330, we can expect a rather steady climb from here. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
NASDAQ:METALong
by IvanLabrie
5
$GBPUSD: Upside to 1.3875...The Pound has triggered a bottom signal, in both the daily and weekly timeframe, right after seeing the 1st rate hike across developed nations since the Pandemic started. Weekly charts point to a rally towards 1.3875 within the next 11 weeks, and the daily chart has a buy signal right here. I'm long with a stop below 1.31625, aiming to capture the weekly move here, if possible. Don't risk over 1% in the position, I'd say. Calculate the sizing carefully. Risk management is key to stay in the game until we strike gold with a good trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
WKHS: Interesting monthly signal and solid fundamentalsI am interested in $WKHS here, been eyeing it for ages since @timwest brought it up long ago. There's now an active long term uptrend at play here, which may result in a very profitable trading enviroment, if it pans out. You could milk this trend and the key levels in the stock with various methods, using T@M and Key Hidden Levels techniques. Keep an eye on this one, lately $TSLA and $NKLA have caught everyone's attention, it will certainly drive interest towards $WKHS going forward. They have $GM backing them, and some deals with USPS and UPS up their sleeves. Small company, but certainly interesting. If the market peaked, we might see it slide back down to support, so keep in mind this bearish scenario. I doubt it will go much lower than that if it does drop. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:WKHSLong
by IvanLabrie
9
EURAUD: Nice long setupLooks like we have a 2.61R potential trade in the Euro vs the Aussie dollar here. I'm long, thinking it can easily hit the target zone, considering that the $EURUSD down trend signal in the daily chart has panned out, $DXY hit the weekly target, and timing for a daily move in $EURUSD has elapsed, implying a possible mean reversion or reversal move in that pair. $AUDUSD is acting weak, and the ratio shows a good reward to risk high probability Time@Mode setup. Seems like an easy win. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
$OXY: Monthly signal in oil active...I scooped some long term OTM calls here, gives me 10.5% notional exposure to oil via $OXY, risking 1% of my portfolio if the trade fails. Seems like a good way to be exposed to the big and steady trend in oil, I have already banked my other energy positions and oil futures options, this is a good way to stay exposed with minimal risk (since the weekly oil target was already reached, but monthly has a lot of room and time to go) Cheers! Best of luck, Ivan.
NYSE:OXYLong
by IvanLabrie
Soybeans: Close to a buy signal once again...The last time we had a perfect storm situation to buy grains, we had a monster rally in both corn and beans. We are now in a similar situation, with the recent surge in Nat Gas affecting fertilizer prices. Weather in Brazil is problematic and China is struggling to produce grains locally...We are once again nearing a situation where reward to risk for buying into grains is tremendous. I'm long Corn futures already for a couple days and waiting for the daily chart to trigger a technical buy signal in Nov Beans to go long as well. The last weekly signal expires by next week, as a failure, price hit really oversold levels and reached monthly support (see green shaded area). Implications are a retest of the weekly down trend mode (as shown by the arrow on chart), at least, which can then evolve into a new weekly uptrend, once the daily trend turns up. And potentially trigger a new monthly signal similar to the one we had before...This is an interesting juncture to enter long term positions in grain futures. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
BIIB: Biogen, low risk long term buyReward to risk long term in $BIIB is very attractive here. I've gone long via a calendar spread before the latest FDA approval news, which turned out like a good long position when Biogen's Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm received accelerated approval. Following this, related companies which also have Alzheimer's drugs pending approval (like $LLY) received a dramatic boost. In the case of $LLY, their drug was approved as well a few days later. Both charts are very strong in the long term, showing signs of yearly uptrends present, indicating a multi year rally in these stocks is possible. Accelerated approval means that the FDA approves the drug due to the possibility that it may provide therapeutic benefit to patients even though there is some uncertainty about the drug’s clinical benefit. Aduhelm is the first therapy approved for Alzheimer’s disease that is directed at the underlying pathology itself (the presence of amyloid beta plaques in the brain). The clinical trials were the first to show that a reduction in these plaques is expected to lead to a reduction in the clinical decline of this form of dementia. There is a lot of debate regarding the drug's price tag, as well as the clinical benefit it may or not provide, but I think it's a reasonable bet to make here, from a technical and fundamental standpoint. Valuation wise, the company has very low long term debt to equity, high free cash flow yield and a high earnings yield (trailing twelve months), earnings growth has been negative in the last year, but positive in the previous five years. There is a lot at stake with Aduhelm's potential success, so, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, consider that the yearly uptrend is invalid if price moves below 243.58 to define your position sizing based on your risk appetite. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:BIIBLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$TTD: Long term trend active...$TTD offers a tremendous trade opportunity here, after barely missing a long term support level which would have been a good long term entry to join the trend and reacting to it, I think it's worth it to pay up and jump into it ASAP. If price were to dip into support, you may add to your position, but it isn't worth depending on limit orders that might never get filled to enter. As long as price holds over $75, the setup here is likely to pan out between now and August 2022. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
NASDAQ:TTDLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$USDCAD: Lagging oil...I plotted inverse oil here vs $USDCAD, it seems there's a nice opportunity for a big short to close that spread. I'm long $CADJPY and short $USDCAD from earlier today, now made some time to post the weekly signal in $USDCAD, which is cooking here. If price breaks 1.24603, a weekly down trend with a target @ 1.16536 will be active, predicting a 18 week decline is setting up. Stop loss for this setup should be a bit above the light red horizontal line on chart. Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
BTCUSD: Update, CME is the driving force here...I found the culprit of my confusion regarding the last upswing in $BTCUSD, the spot chart has become unreliable compared to the CME futures chart, at least when it comes to Time@Mode analysis. Finer details of how weekly bar ranges look, impact the analysis outcome. I missed a signal indicating that we could go long, like 4 weeks ago, and given sentiment didn't think it made sense to get a signal targeting new all time highs either. In the CME chart we see a clearly expired monthly trend, and a clean weekly down swing which has panned out. As well as a new weekly upswing currently taking place. I suspect the outcome of regulatory uncertainty will be that price remains sideways/down and price doesn't make new highs for a long time. Regulations won't come into play after 2023, so perhaps a bit before that, the market will move out of this sideways state. It is unclear when we will have more clarity regarding the final decision in the infrastructure bill, but market participants will be monitoring it closely. I think my main long term view is correct, that a long term trend ended, and now we either go sideways or down for a similar amount of time as previous bear markets, roughly until April 2022, this is also in line with expectations from monthly T@M signals in the CME chart here presented. As for the daily and weekly uptrend, there is a big resistance cluster above, and a weekly level that should hold, around 50k. I don't think price can jump over that barrier easily. Daily trend expires by Friday, weekly expires in two more Fridays after. Let's keep an eye on developments here, I anticipate this market will be driven by institutional portfolio managers rebalancing, which likely will contribute to price being stuck in a sideways range until there is regulatory clarity in the future. This will also help sentiment cool down, as it is I can't fathom price going into a steady uptrend and reaching 80-100k or whatever. I hope you feel as relieved as me, after figuring out this puzzle. Take it easy, we will have a ton of time to analyze and think about this market's trend. Price won't deviate far, specially not up, I am pretty sure of that now. Even more so than before. We can trade the daily signals as they form, up and down, but definitely don't fomo in and buy all in and expect unreasonable moves (same can be said for shorting, trade small or don't trade). Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CME:BTC1!
by IvanLabrie
14
$NZDUSD: Short setup in the dailyAlways keen on having some uncorrelated trades to generate returns with potentially...I'm short the Kiwi dollar here, worth a punt as it might erase the recent multi week advance next as it remains range bound for the most part. The $NZDCNH and $JPYCNH pairs are reversing, coinciding with weakness in $USDJPY, $EURJPY, $AUDJPY, $NZDJPY, $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD. There's a chance that the recent moves in currencies are reversed overall. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
1
#OIL: Huge uptrend potential in oil hereI think we are ready for the next big rally in oil, this will cause a dramatic effect on inflation and affect earnings negatively going forward long term. I think it could reach as high as over $100 a barrel by mid August here. If so, the impact on the economy would be very large, with a delay of 6 months according to research by my mentor, @timwest With the Iran deal on the horizon, and the recent turn of events in the OPEC meeting, supply is going to be lower than demand and the US might be at risk of losing their energy independence that Trump had achieved during his tenure (also of note is the recent ESG activist shareholder movement, really concerning for the future of investment in increasing supply to meet demand from shale companies in the US). Consider the return to normal in air travel as a factor here as well, no one is really prepared for a move like this, and most media talking heads are repeating like parrots that inflation will be transitory, as if they were under the govt's payroll. Nasty turn of events indeed, but a good opportunity for those long value and commodities. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8
$BABA: It's time, load up the truck...I think $BABA likely bottoms around here, the 14 week down trend signal that predicted this decline reached its final week and price will gap down into long term support from the all time 25% speed line for the whole advance from the bottom to the top. Sentiment had reached critical levels for equities last week already, and there's a path out of this mess with Evergrande possibly under control and most investors liquidated out of this stock, reaching lows not seen since 2019. Valuation is interesting now, so, it seems like a good play to try and knife catch this one. I once tried with the $KWEB etf which had completed a similar down trend recently, which led to a rapid rebound rally but that rally was faded after I took profits, and prices retraced back near the bottom on the back $BABA's continued weakness. The time is likely now, to try and fade this largely hyped fall, after most people trying to catch the bottom gave up already. Let's roll! I risk 1 average true range down, below this support level here, I will then monitor daily charts for a bullish trend signal after basing, to accumulate more shares and trail my stop loss higher. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:BABALong
by IvanLabrie
14