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$AUDJPY: Potential long signal once againI think we are about to experience a strong reflationary wave once again, we have crypto, commodities, equities, preparing to rally in a big way, and the Aussie-Yen forming a monster base. The setup here is to buy if price breaks out forming a larger range upside move vs the last daily true range (when measured from the last close to the upside). This would get my R.E.Signal indicator to flash a green triangle underneath the daily bar, would mean we are about to start a steady trend from here. We can define risk and set a stop not too far below, which is graphed on chart. The signal might not trigger in the next daily bar, but if it does, the price for entry and stop in this chart would be valid. I'll update this as the chart takes form. I anticipated fireworks in my previous $SPY publication, alerting of a broad sentiment reset forming, which should prepare us mentally for another huge 'winning' wave. The last strong trend we had was after the Pfizer vaccine announcement, when we made an absolute killing with value stocks and financials. Now we have the Merck pill announcement, potentially triggering another round of reopening optimism, setting the stage for economic recovery, the first phase of which would be reflation. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$EURCHF: Bottomed here...I think we have a decent trade with something between 3:1 and 5.28:1 RR here. I'm long here since the hourly is bottoming, and daily charts hit long term support, while being close to exhausting the last daily down trend signal that was active. Technically, this is a very strong mean reversion possibility and we have the backing of the Swiss National Bank which could stop the decline intervening in the market around here... Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
#WMT: Buy the dip...There is a monthly and weekly uptrend in $WMT, and I like the reward and odds here vs the risk. I'm long using long term OTM call options here (June 2022 $165 calls), risking a palatable amount on call premium. Doing this, you can look into selling shorter duration calls periodically, or going short stock against the position to try and make the trade risk free. It's a good strategy if you have a knack for trading, while riding a big trend. I like the fact that Ray Dalio recently lost a big pension fund from his list of clients, and one of his top holdings is $WMT...as a bit of contrarian color. Alternatively you can trade this one with shares, as a long term position with no stop, it should work if it holds over $142-140, the signal implies a rally over $167 by May 2022, perhaps can reach target #2 at $198. My last trade was the yellow box you see on chart, a daily signal which generated a bigger monthly trend trigger. This entry now is the optimal entry to rejoin the trend (near my original entry). I sold the shares near the highs already. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:WMTLong
by IvanLabrie
#ETHUSD: Somehow stronger than BitcoinI suspect it is a setup like back in Nov 2017 here, which is interesting as I was not anticipating this could happen based on overall data and sentiment, but it is what it is. The interesting part is this signal would more or less be in tandem with equities rallying until end of 2021 or mid 2022, perhaps with crypto topping sooner than that? I am a bit surprised by developments we had since the top, but it is certainly possible and logical according to the monthly $ETHUSD chart. Big allocation to crypto is highly risky now though, I was invested in a big way from the bottom and onwards, on and off since 2019, dodged the COVID crash, dodged the top after Bakkt, more or less did alright, being as risk averse as I am, but being an 'ape' paid off more. Problem is people get rewarded for the wrong reasons and won't know when to get out when the market crashes (again). The last crash was a big margin wipeout, I suppose we will get another buildup of margin longs once this signal is close to its end, somewhere between 6490 and 14k by late 2021...If the signal works. Daily trends have been quite good to track the moves here, with tighter risk and entries, but the big picture view is better observed from afar, in the monthly chart. I don't have a clear signal in $BTCUSD now, hence my lack of publications in it, all I know is the monthly charts from CME suggest the rally is over for now. Judging by this chart, we might trigger a bullish signal in the monthly Bitcoin chart over time as well, perhaps going higher, or perhaps only Ethereum rallies here. Either way, the parallels to Nov 2017 is quite interesting and worth observing. $ETHBTC has managed to turn around in the weekly and now looks bullish again: Best of luck, don't gamble too hard on crypto, we are on shaky ground. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
4
#COIN: Coinbase about to rally for 9 weeks at leastLooks like $COIN is ready to rally here, was accumulated and can move up dramatically in the coming 8 weeks. Crypto as a whole looks like the long term uptrend I had forecasted in August 2020 is still en route, despite what I had initially thought myself, after we had a dramatic crash from the April top following the IPO. Best of luck if trading this or holding, trend is up, but watch out for my target zone and behavior once the time expires for this move. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by IvanLabrie
5
SPX500: Daily trend refuses to turn upThe daily timeframe has yet another short signal here, I've hedged my equities positions with a 1:1 $ESZ2021 short position near the NY closing time. Implications are we get yet another down swing, and a vicious one towards 4161.8 by Oct 25 or sooner, as long as price doesn't cross the 4368.89 level with ease, erasing the decline from the high two days ago. There's palpable fear in the market, and earnings season around the corner might keep investors up at night...The recent upswing in commodities, as shortages and supply chains woe pop left and right is making people nervous, add to these inflationary woes, the rising yields and rising dollar, and we get a perfect storm. I was expecting sell offs to slow down, since we had a strong buying wave, retracing the last liquidity shock by 75% in the $VIX chart, but the latest daily T@M signal here puts that notion in question. The currency market is making shock waves here, which is an unusual and new development, $USDJPY breaking out and rallying very strongly, could be followed up by deleveraging. I'm being cautious and hedging until things are clear again. My individual stock positions have solid charts and a fundamental back drop, so, it isn't worth it to sell them in this case. Let's see if bears get follow through here and the signal target is reached in time. Best of luck, Ivan.
FX:SPX500Short
by IvanLabrie
Silver/Gold ratio: Silver is stretched compared to GoldI love the setup in the Silver/Gold ratio here. Big upside with super low downside risk if you trade it as a pair, going long 1 lot of Silver futures vs 1 lot short in Gold futures. There was a 14 week down trend signal that expires today, which predicts a relief rally of 14 weeks could occur starting here. The daily chart has a bullish trend signal confirming today as well. See the stop loss recommendation on chart, it is a 2.1% downside risk in the ratio, so, size your trade accordingly. Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
#AUDJPY: Bottom's in?I like the confluence of signals here, conspiring for a major bottom in $AUDJPY. Weekly down trends have expired, daily is oversold and turning up from an already completed down trend and sentiment has been tremendously negative in this pair. I suspect a major turning point happened last week in small caps and currencies and other beaten down assets, like China stocks, etc. Worth a small shot with low risk here, stop loss at last week's low is fine, don't risk over 2%, perhaps 0.25% is fine. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
$SUSHIUSDT: Potential uptrend signal hereIf we get a breakout, we can go long $SUSHIUSDT here, with a decent reward to risk, signal could trigger during tomorrow onwards. I'll update it once it kicks in. Strictly technical trade here, I don't think it's justified to expect a longer term move in altcoins here, $BTCUSD's 2 week timeframe signal is a much better candidate for that, but we could get a short term rapid rally here, and the stop loss is tight, once it is active. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
#BTCUSD: long and mid term update:Current signal is ambiguous here, outcome depends on this week's price action until next Sunday's close. There was a 98k target forecast activated from like 36-37k in late July... That forecast will be invalidated if this week bulls manage to send $BTCUSD prices over 56138.42 (Coinbase price), or could even turn into a bearish setup if prices move below 35910.04 before next Sunday's close. If you were long, you know what stop to use... Watch this week's action closely, daily and weekly charts are interesting to watch as well, daily turning bearish could be an early indication of downside risk. I'm inclined to see bullish action, as markets recover from the recent shocks, but, I'm data dependent here. Things will be clearer soon, the biweekly timeframe has worked well to analyze the big picture swings in Bitcoin historically, so it is a good tool to use here, although from an execution standpoint, you have to tolerate big drawdowns if using it at times, for the most part it does a good job, those drawdowns are nothing compared to the returns generated by trading it.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
17
$XLF: Long financials now...We have a tremendous signal to go long financial names now, as the yield curve is set to steepen once again and yields are rising on the back of the last FOMC meeting outcome, and the reopening momentum generated by the evolution of the Delta variant, and news of an antiviral pill from Merck that can cause a 50% reduction of fatalities and hospitalizations that recently surfaced. Charts are very constructive, as the $USB one I pointed out. I'm currently long a variety of value/financials/energy names as well as crude oil futures options for a while now, since AAII readings sunk below 25% recently. Now the broad market chart looks like a bottom is forming, and today a buy signal popped in $XLF, so the time is now! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:XLFLong
by IvanLabrie
5
$USB: Monster setupAll timeframes are setting up for a big move in $USB here, daily is kicking off a fresh uptrend after the recent bottom, weekly and monthly are about to trigger a trend as well, and by EOY the yearly will flash a 10 year uptrend signal which aims for somewhere between $220 and over $1600 per share by the year 2030. I think overall, the return vs risk proposition here is tilted significantly in our favor to buy both speculative swing positions, as well as potential long term positions too. Keep a close eye on this setup, might be extremely rewarding and it is extremely low risk considering the potential upside at hand... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:USBLong
by IvanLabrie
$DXY: Weekly trend signal...This signal can end up nullifying a quarterly chart uptrend signal in $EURUSD, certainly interesting, massive coiled spring here. I'm keen on going long the dollar against weak currency pairs here. The $DXY trade itself isn't bad at all either. Market is in risk off mode so far, we had rising $VIX and $DXY while everything else was falling. Risk is 1.1% ish down from here, so size your positions according to your max risk tolerance. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
1
#SPLK: Catching up to the likes of $DDOGI'm long $SPLK here, for a good while in fact, but the long term signals in this chart only popped recently. There's big potential upside here, as the company transitions into a more cloud based business model. Daily chart had flashed a bottom signal which we collectively picked at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom, and I've been trading on the long side since. Weekly trends were in place, now daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly are bullish here. We can expect substantial upside into EOY/Q1 2022 in my opinion, in general in the market, and in this stock in particular. Highly recommend considering investing, if not already in. $301-320 is a great confluence area for a massive target long term. Moving below $138-118 would threaten the outlook, take that as your worst case risk for position sizing if trading it long term. Daily charts offer multiple trade setups where you can use tighter stops, taking in consideration the longer term view to filter the direction of your trades (in this case, long every long signal, maybe trail stops on the way up, or simply be ready to reenter after trade signals pan out, and new ones form over time, this has lower volatility, since you don't hold through drawdowns, and is better suited for more active traders but it is also challenging on its own as you need to monitor it frequently and be skilled at short term trading) If not, hodl as long as not below $118. Sell calls OTM out one month periodically. (bank the call short if prices make new highs after consolidating, very simply put) Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
SLong
by IvanLabrie
3
$TLT: Make bonds great again?I'm concerned of broad risk off possibilities between now and EOY, as potential tax increases might impact the equity markets, going into effect from 2022 onwards...I was already concerned due to long term technical charts suggesting this year we would likely get the end of the bullish trend we had in equities since the 2009 bottom. This week's turn of events has increased my fear levels substantially. I'm already long bonds and commodities via option positions as a hedge for my equities portfolio, but I think it is time to stay alert and not be inflexible and attempt to bag hodl ANYTHING forever. There's a long list of bearish factors at play now, and it keeps getting worse the further we go into 2021, but stock market indices have gone vertical since last year so far. I will try to time the top in individual stocks I hold, and trade with a mid to short term focus, so as not to take on a big drawdown by the time I can confirm a long term top in equities is happening. At some point this year, indices will stop going up, form a daily down trend and drop some 10-30%, then perhaps rebound and form a multi month or multi week consolidation before falling further, that will be the beginning of the end, and I don't want to react too late. Biden is doing all he can to derail the long term bullish trend in US equities here. It's a sight to behold. Props to him, if that was his goal. The last time we had yearly trends expiring in equities it was the year 2000, and a decade long sideways/bear market ensued where hodlers didn't have an easy time surviving. You know what asset class did well during the crashes? Cash and cash alternatives...ergo, bonds. Just some food for thought. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by IvanLabrie
5
SPY: Bottom of the correction here...I'm calling a bottom for this correction here, the market held support from Q2 earnings season, it is still trending up in the long term, even if in the short term we had a correction due to selling due to overreacting and misreading Fed minutes, into an illiquid market. I liked @timwest's analogy today: 'If you sell into an illiquid market, it's like diving into an empty pool, it's gonna hurt'. I'm still holding my long positions and banked a couple shorts today, although I'm shorting overvalued names that are reversing, since certain sectors are likely to fare worse than others, rotation is the name of the game. The broad market chugs along, but individual names bring a lot more opportunity if you know where to look. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
5