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#BTCUSD: Bear market still ongoing...The daily trend had a bullish signal which I sadly overlooked and missed the move here, I still sit in cash, luckily I did cover my shorts near the very bottom. There is an interesting scenario setting up, everyone is once again complacent and bullish to the extreme, people are trading JPGs for millions, no one gives a damn about regulatory risks and everyone is back to believing in the Super Cycle nonsense. The daily chart suggests we could short under a daily low, specially after August 10th, when the current uptrend signal expires. Risk a move into new highs after that happens, and ride the next leg down with some luck. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
13
#DJI: DJIA leading the charge?We have an interesting situation, at least for the following 6 weeks...After the jobs report, the market is repricing the timing of tapering and eventual rate hikes it would seem. Financials had underperformed for some time, and $QQQ and $SPY moved higher thanks to growth names regaining strength, while bond yields were falling and a big unwind of losing yield curve steepener bets were unwinding. I had pointed out the strength in growth and bonds before, and rotated away from value and financials/energy when I figured out the reflation move had ran its course. At least financials are prone to do very well for the next few weeks, as the weekly uptrend in $TLT expired, and predicts a 6 week sideways or down move in bonds, which is connected to mean reversion following a furious move caused partially by the unwinding of big yield curve bets. News of the hedge fund that took the hit were recently published, which made me think the move in the yield curve is overdone and bound to mean revert. This will favor US banks for some time again. We also observe this behavior in the $DJI chart here, and the $SPY and $QQQ weekly charts. Both $SPY and $QQQ have weekly trends that expire in the next 2 weeks, which can lead to a sideways or downside move after the last short term upswing takes a breather. I'm still bullish longer term overall, in names like $AAPL, $TSLA and $NVDA to name a few, but they might correct or consolidate in two weeks, while US Banks soar. The trend will likely go back to lower bond yields and outperformance of growth later on, but for now it is the time of the $DJI to shine over $SPY and $QQQ, specially in 2 weeks from now. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DJILong
by IvanLabrie
2
$BTC vs $AMZN: What if...This is just an interesting comparison, something like this would absolutely wipe out everyone, and reset things, as far as sentiment goes, whilst giving a great opportunity to long term buyers to accumulate $BTC at really low levels, if things came to pass like they did for $AMZN back in the 2000 top. In this theoretical scenario, price would go sideways during 1 year, to then crash in a slow bleed, falling to levels only seen at the start of the rally coming out of the 2015 lows... As a result of this, and regulations, and the disappearance of all the wild leverage traders, and exchanges, maybe volatility settles down, and $BTC starts acting like a tech stock, eventually reaching prices over $1,000,000 in the next 10-15 years. Something like this would give us a great opportunity, both on the short side, and then on the long side, if things do come to pass in this manner, and would definitely frustrate a lot of people who bought into $BTC, and believes in the HODL religion. These beliefs will likely change or disappear, by the time it bottoms. Cheers, Ivan Labrie. PS: My forecast is still for a sideways 2018, and possible sideways 2019, but we could indeed get a bear market too, the rules of Time At Mode imply the long term bull market ended, and we will wither go sideways, or crash back to $442, or close to it. It seems wild now, but it is entirely possible still. Better be open to anything happening, and not biased and blinded by our greed. Shout out to Tim West, who mentioned this overlay, as something worth looking into.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
14
Growth vs Value: Outperformance in growth namesI think we are entering a period similar to that of April 2020 to September 2020, and growth names will outperform value stocks dramatically until Q4 2021 or Q1 2022. The market could be about to top in the very long term after these developments, as we had a massive rally in oil, and a rapid surge in global credit creation since the pandemic lows. Govts and Central Banks have been easing, keeping real interest rates below the natural rate of interest while providing stimulus aiding people until an economic recovery took place. We are just now slowly going back to normal, but the economic recovery is yet to reach levels adequate for the easing to stop. All the stimulus and credit creation paired with supply chain issues due to lock downs has led to a period of higher inflation expectations, driven mainly by a tremendous rally in commodities, which seems to be over by now. There is an interesting pattern where the global credit impulse chart leads changes in bond yields with a 10 month time lag and/or industrial commodities returns by about 8 months (as noted by Alfonso Peccatiello, author of 'The Macro Compass' substack). The data shows it peaked in Q4 2020, which, forward 8 months, gives us a peak in April-June for commodities and by Q4 2021 for bond yields to move (and likely affect risk assets overall). This possibly will match the time required for data to give the Federal Reserve confidence to taper and accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, faster than the market potentially expects. My mentor, @timwest had pointed out that big rallies or declines in oil precede bottoms or tops in equities with a 6 month lag, this metric also fits the idea of a top by EOY. Refer to his publication in related ideas for more info on that pattern, it's extremely interesting, as it gives actionable key levels for long term analysis. See related ideas for my long term forecast for Nasdaq, which fits this macro framework as well, potentially predicting a long term rally culminating by Q4 2021 or Q1 2022. This same pattern is present in mega cap names like $AAPL and $AMZN, and visible in $SPY charts as well. After the current growth rally, we might get a period where there is a dollar shortage in the Eurodollar market, and everything goes risk off, except for $DXY. We need to be prepared to mitigate its effect or even profit from it, but also don't miss the current huge rally that is starting now. This will likely happen after real interest rates surpass natural observed interest rates, triggering a broad risk asset selloff and deleveraging. What has happened historically is that after long term trends end in major stock indices, we enter a period where commodities outperform stocks, this is likely to occur after the initial shock recedes. Might be the time to revisit my long term $XAGUSD idea. Cheers, Ivan Labrie. References: www.richmondfed.org www.treasury.gov themacrocompass.substack.com www.macromarketsdaily.com
AMEX:VUGLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$BTCUSD: bear market thesisBy now, price has wiped out the 2 month timeframe range expansion stop loss area, basically retesting the yearly open price. People are now buying into YET another 'technical analysis' excuse for NOT selling and or buying into it on margin once again. This will keep going until the market bottoms. The reason bear markets are so annoying to trade is this, people keep buying on the way down, this is textbook as per Livermore: 'manipulators unload their stash after the top on the way down'. Fundamentals have forced chinese miners to unload coins to relocate their mining operations outside of China, this won't end anytime soon I suppose, and people have been destroyed trying to buy all the different technical excuses to date (moving averages of different periods, Wyckoff spring, wedge breakout retest, double, triple bottoms, etc.) You name it, people remain bullish on the way down, which is completely negative for price in the long term, this is called confidence in loss, and it is a sign of continuation to the downside over time, complacency at its finest. Without the GBTC premium, arbitrage players no longer were absorbing all new mined coins, and helping reduce available supply at exchanges, thus increasing the slippage on new big OTC purchases, which helped cause the bubble from 10k to 64k. The 'corporate treasury' trend is also over, since the last batch of institutional OTC buyers got destroyed after the Canada ETF came out and the GBTC premium disappeared. This was until then, a perfect self reinforced trend as described by George Soros in his book: 'Alchemy of finance'. Watch for reaction to the area below, keep an eye on sentiment, wait for maybe some big cue like Michael Saylor being forced out of his $BTC bag, and then we can go long. Trading the decline will be tremendously hard and annoying, it just isn't worth it. Stay safe out there, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
63
#ETSY: Big reversal, basing after the previous decline endedThe weekly Time@Mode trend signal here expired, signaling a potential reversal in the making. Price action was seen basing for weeks on end since the initial rapid decline stopped. Looks like price can stage a comeback and land on $214 or higher, or even new highs in the coming months. I'm long from around here, aiming for the blue arrow target, but potentially riding this one for longer if warranted. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:ETSYLong
by IvanLabrie
1
#NFLX: Long term trend resuming? Daily and weekly are bullishThe way I see things we are about to have a face melting beta rally, with growth outperforming value again for the rest of the year and into Q1-Q2 2022 at least. $NFLX might be a good position to have, quite unloved for a long time, lagging the mega cap rally, and coming out of a nice base, weekly uptrend formed after the 9 week down trend signal expired last week. I like the Spielberg partnership news, and the way things are going with the new delta variant and rising cases I suspect people will do a whole lot more of sitting and streaming at home for much longer. One thing $NFLX was lacking was new content, now they are once again able to film new stuff, and might actually generate some growth again. Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by IvanLabrie
6
#EURCAD: Bottom's inI suspect the $EURCAD cross pair is reversing in the weekly timeframe here, we might see a substantial rally as oil could be peaking here, and the $Euro is oversold. The setup calls for a potential rally to 1.53, with risk down to 1.47 if the trade fails. Ideally you try to get in on dips after the market is open, keep an eye on price action for an entry. Alternatively you can average in during the day to not be left out in case there's no retrace. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
BTCUSD: Critical decision timeWe either started a bear market here, since the break down from the lower high (and the 2nd and smaller rising wedge concluded) OR we are at a nice retracement to rejoin the bullish trend which is still active, which could culminate with a rally topping short of 100k, by May 2022. I can confirm which is more likely over the coming days and weeks, and will give my clients the cue to buy when it is low risk, if the bull case is more probable. We sit in cash for now, since we sidestepped the decline from 54200 roughly. Altcoins have topped against #BTC as I explained in my dominance and $ETHBTC post, so the best bet is to rotate away from them if you didn't already do it, and probably a good time to hunt for short ALTBTC ops, whatever the trend direction may be. In both scenarios, altcoins lose. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
59
GME: Ready to move again...It looks like $GME is ready to break out from this range it was coiling in and massively rally towards $2360 per share by late August. I'd give this a 65% probability of happening, vs risk of losing 30% if it fails to rally. That's a 33 to 1 reward to risk which makes the trade totally worth it. Try not to risk over 5% in the position if you take it, in my case I'm buying 3.3% to risk 1% if wrong. That's enough for my risk appetite. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:GMELong
by IvanLabrie
24
QQQ: Uptrend in motionI am not a firm believer on inflation being transitory, and am pretty sure we are in the very last innings of a long term rally in equities that started from the 2009 lows. The yearly #SPX chart suggests this tops this year, which could be at any point of the year, and logically not later than EOY. The big question is when will the Fed hike interest rates, and what will happen with their bond purchase program. Stimulus is likely to increase, judging by the current turn of events and the administration at the helm. It's probably wise to be a bull in bonds, precious metals and equities for the time being, but I would be careful once we reach the end of the year. Mid term signal here indicates a rapid and steady rally in equities until late August, before the next consolidation period starts in the weekly timeframe. I focus on where will the rotations of big money will take place, and also monitor fundamental and technical developments across sectors and different stocks to figure out what names to hold in my portfolio. It's still highly interesting to analyze the action in $QQQ and $SPY overall. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by IvanLabrie
1
Ethereum: Likely topped vs BTCI'm pretty sure we saw the top of the alt season rally here. If Bitcoin topped for good or not, $ETHBTC likely goes lower next. Everyone and their mother believe in up only and want alt season forever, people quit jobs for crypto, there's a lot of flippening talk, before this drop people were talking about the price levels they want to sell $ETHBTC at, higher of course, mining gear is selling at insane prices and people pay them without problems, but they pay with cash, not with crypto cause they are confident in upside still...Doge at SNL was peak altcoin lunacy here, and the performance of $ETHBTC during the drop in $BTCUSD is reminiscent of January 2018. Upside risk to short it vs $Bitcoin is lower than potential downside. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
7
BTCUSD: Market likely topped with stocks hereI was considering the action before a long term top, with the action we saw lately in equities and the bubble in altcoins, it is very hard to stay long #Bitcoin here. I don't think it's safe to hold long exposure for the time being, and there is a distinct chance this was a long term top. Buying the dip near 50k was rewarding but it is probably time to bank those gains and move on for some time. This could easily crash towards 43k, where a potential support area lies. Some people have orders around there due to a confluence of technical methods showing it as a buy. If long term trend is up, I'd suppose this area isn't hit, if it is hit, I would find it VERY strange if it bounces after pleasing people. For the time being I will monitor this closely, but don't want to rush back into crypto until it is clear this breaks up and not down. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
102
Dominance: Uptrend can start from hereI think the alt season period we saw lately is over, it was a massive run since Dominance had peaked when Bitcoin was 1 week from peaking at 42k. The wealth generated in altcoins could be diverted towards Bitcoin here and help it recover from these levels. Certainly if I was an altcoin whale holding massive amounts of Ethereum in profit, I would rotate it into Bitcoin for a low risk play here, downside risk is dramatically different in both assets. The EIP1559 front run rally could be over here. Keep an eye on this trade! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by IvanLabrie
19
BTCUSD: Buy the dip opportunity to rejoin the long term trendI think this is a prime buying opportunity in the long term in #Bitcoin here, in case you were in cash here, or hedged. I am long already, after hedging part of the last decline as per my previous publication. See the Dominance chart in related ideas for more thoughts regarding altcoins here. I think a combination of institutional buying and rotation from altcoins into Bitcoins by OG traders and miners is likely next, and that we are seeing a very oversold dip similar to the one we saw back in September 2020. I have added a couple fundamental key levels to the chart as reference, in this case levels associated to potential OTC buyers activity (Coinbase Bitcoin outflows, probably going into custody wallets after OTC trades). We also had huge USDT inflows into exchanges recently, which aligns with my train of thought, and miners have been net buyers of Bitcoin lately, rather than sellers. We had some massive margin liquidations and now an increase in shorts at the bottom, which suggests we both got rid of leveraged longs after funding reset back to negative and open interest dropped big time, and we also managed to trap sellers who both sold their precious Bitcoin at the bottom and sold short to make things worse, potentially. Best of luck, hopefully I'm correct in my analysis here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
23
#BTCUSD: Top, or at least the biggest correction since 2020I think we have substantial risk that we are about to face the largest correction $Bitcoin has seen since the bottom in March 2020. Biden's proposal to hike taxes has roiled markets globally, and specially risk on assets naturally. Commodities are already rallying big and we know inflation is around the corner. I wouldn't be shocked if we saw the top for good, but I'm open to the possibility that this is a healthy correction to delever the market. Estimated leverage ratios from all exchanges are very high as per Crypto Quant data, which opens the possibility for a cascading liquidation run towards substantially lower prices if long term buyers don't support the market here. No one likes a market that is 'too long'. We are hedged from higher levels today. Sellers had taken a pause since the liquidation drop a few days ago, but buying pressure failed to manifest itself, and instead we observed an increase in leverage once again from retail buyers confident to buy the dip (was a red flag according to Santiment data). We haven't had corrections larger than 30% so far, not by much, unlike previous bullish trends in crypto, and we have a huge support level at 42381, the price where we heard about $TSLA buying $Bitcoin for the first time. The market reacted to it and I could determine this Key Level using Key Hidden Levels, a proprietary trading methodology and toolset developed by my mentor, @timwest . For the time being I'm in cash in my crypto account, waiting for the dust to settle, I certainly was a bit shaken by the recent action as we topped after hitting the 1st long term target zone in my big picture chart, at 57k, rather than trend for the duration of the forecasted rally until May 2022. This is unlike the previous bullish cycle. The only similarity is we have a crazy euphoria in altcoins, even in the face of falling $Bitcoin prices vs the dollar, and crazy high funding rates at exchanges and enormous leverage. It was one of my possible scenarios, since we had the 'laser eyes' trend catching on, I felt it was a sign of the times and a sentiment red flag but shrugged it off since weekly charts had remained strong, although I failed to realize the underlying market structure was not healthy with so much leverage in the system. The scenario I outlined was that we top at the first target, falling short of that 100k milestone...and bottom when people give up on the laser eyes meme. We should get signs of institutional buyers stopping the fall to get some reassurance, for now they are nowhere to be seen. Let's hope the bottom is confirmed very soon, and this isn't the end of the bullish trend but it is certainly possible. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
77
#BTCUSD: Trend is up in the long term and now mid term as well..Everyone continues to be bearish and fearful among the crypto folk, which is highly interesting. In this market, only the lowest of IQs and the highest will make money, as strange as it sounds, since it's a strong trend. Normal folks who suffer from post 2018 to 2020 bear market PTSD are reluctant to hold and take risks this time around, right when taking risks is rewarded. This leaves corporate entities fomoing into BTC and new entrants from the 'stacking sats' movement as the only people making money steadily. It will be interesting once we have more and more momentum in the new trend of CEOs acquiring #BTC reserves from their cash piles, as this might cause a big self reinforcing trend, together with the Grayscale and Halving effect reducing available supply. This trend can go for a long time, until something big pops it, most likely due to government intervention. Long term technicals suggest this will go on until mid 2022, and I believe this is accurate and logical with fundamentals here. Think of this: -CEO of company A picks up #BTC reserves -Company A's stock goes up due to it -#BTCUSD goes higher after the announcement -People fomo into #BTC -Funds and other entities bound by limitations to trade #BTC directly fomo into company A's stock to get #BTC exposure. -Other companies' CEOs fomo into #BTC as well, seeing Company A's stock price surge as a result. -Repeat loop with more companies and more people fomoing into #BTC and stocks. When does this cycle end? Only a big catalyst can stop a self reinforced trend in motion. When it pops it will be spectacularly catastrophic though. Cheers, see you by mid 2022, at much, much higher prices (between 60k-186k-360k-2.2m USD per #BTC over time) Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
30