#ETHBTC: Upside until end of May...It seems we have a trend here, I'm thinking we see a big rotation out of #BNB ecosystem and into #ETH based DeFi. Bitcoin Dominance chart suggests we have alt season until the end of May, and it fits this chart nicely. Let's see how this goes. Personally, I'm exposed via low risk margin positions against #Bitcoin collateral myself, but it is potentially valid to buy spot #ETH with #BTC here and specially on dips too. What comes after this signal ends might be a massacre of Altcoin prices in Bitcoin terms I think. I'd suggest caution to people holding alts. Sell in (late) May and go away (into Bitcoin spot). Thank me later...
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Timeatmode
#SUSHI: Big trend kicked off...I suspect money is rotating back into #ETH and DeFi coins, moving out of the Binance ecosystem due to the drop in gas prices caused by flashbots preventing front running bots to cause a feedback loop of increasing transaction fees, which was a problem that had sent gas prices sky high. This had contributed to the rise of BSC and sent BNB sky high (paired with speculation on Coinbase's IPO valuation and BNB or FTT being proxies of exchanges valuation catching up to Coinbase's), but that trend is likely done or bound to retrace or consolidate as money rotates back into Ethereum and Ethereum based DeFi coins once again.
I'm long a few coins here, including Ethereum itself, but I bring you SUSHI today.
Reward to risk is at least 8 to 1, could be higher if target #2 here is reached.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
$TSLA: Bullish trend resuming here$1100 is in the cards here, $TSLA is resuming its weekly uptrend here. Analysts have been updating their coverage of the stock and we have many interesting catalysts lining up together with the earnings report coming up.
Upcoming catalysts:
Earnings
Full Self Driving Beta v9 updates by May
Biden's EV credit passing this year
Berlin Gigafactory opening
Austin opening
Full Self Driving roll out by year end perhaps
I think by now we had a good wash out and correction in $TSLA and other growth names, and as is, $TSLA is probably the cheapest of the mega cap stocks.
Highly interesting reward to risk here, over 24 to 1 if my target is hit considering the stop loss area sub $677.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
#BTCUSD: Update - Coinbase IPO, new institutional buyers...Weekly trend in Bitcoin is about to confirm here, either going a tad higher or by this week's close. Daily is already trending up for a while, so the odds of this confirming are extremely high. We are already long from previous publications, but the continuation signals and pullback entries give us low risk chances to add or estimate where to trim exposure before corrections.
Coinbase is set to debut in the stock market today, and we had news of new institutional entrants recently, I think a big short squeeze is forming here. We had some huge volumes in the recent dip, only seen in CME charts when prices crashed on April 7th. There was also persistent selling at the 59-60k area for many weeks in a row since the top at 61k during March.
This persistent selling at practically the same price created a cluster of orders that were filled in the same area near the top of the range. This tells me the sellers kept hitting this area until they ran out of ammo, then tried pushing further on April 7th and lost the plot since. Buyers are now trapping them, they tried to corner the market and failed, and will get squeezed next.
Targets are where I think prices will land in the next few weeks, after which we might get another consolidation and correction, with downside volatility of 20-30% being highly likely after May 30th.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
TIME AT MODE IN CRUDE OIL DAILY MARCH 18 2021 818AM ESTHere's a quick TREND ANALYSIS using a simple method I like to call "TIME AT MODE" in the current crude oil market. I'm using the April 2021 futures contract to do the daily analysis.
FIRST, notice that the crude oil market has not made a new high in over 5-days. That observation makes me look for downside trades in crude oil by first finding the "mode" since the high and then working from there. Here are the steps to analyze the setup.
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Here's a CLOSER look at $CLJ2021 April Crude Oil
ONCE there are 5-days without a new high, put a trend arrow at the peak, then work forward from there...
From that first 5-days, there is a mode that I have labeled "4d" for 4-days at this price, which is the highest 4-day mode since the peak/start of the downtrend
There is a RgExp decline that I have labeled with the yellow triangle, marking the start of the 4-day downtrend (which ends today)
Since that first "trend day", the "RgExp down day" with the Yellow Triangle... there has been minimal follow-through and that has allowed the MODE to drop to the "7d" mode you see labeled there just under $65 at $64.96 (the high of the "lowest range" day last week on Wednesday).
There is a chance that stocks are leading $USOIL down here, so it could just be taking its time or perhaps crude oil longs don't care about the drop in stocks now that the stimulus bill has passed.
The 7-day mode hasn't confirmed yet by RangeExpanding down to kick off a new 7-day decline from the $64.96 level....
The RgExp level is where the market is down MORE TODAY than YESTERDAY'S RANGE...
Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:18AM EST
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I will follow up this chart with another chart discussing the 7-day downside implications for Crude Oil. Simply stated, measure the "range around the mode" and project that price down from the highest point of the mode. That is your first target. The next possible target is 2x the range around the mode, projected down. Add that to your chart.
Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:25AM EST
#SUSHI: Trending up...I think $SUSHIBTC and $SUSHIUSD or $SUSHIPERP are trending nicely here and stand to benefit from the recent ATH break in $BTCUSD. Price discovery at play, there is a nice trend in the 3-Day timeframe here, so we can expect significant upside by April 9th or sooner as per the chart here. I'm long from a tad lower, but figured I should publish this idea here so others can benefit by joining on dips. Ideally price shouldn't retrace beyond recent lows, if this signal is valid, it should stay mostly near the highs and advance from here in the coming days.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Top in $TSLA Was Outlined Weeks in Advance at Key Hidden Levels The “TIME AT MODE” method of analyzing price consolidations and subsequent trends nailed the top in $TSLA in the latest peak.
Very simply stated: We outlined the top based on the # of weeks at the last consolidation. Once a market “breaks away” from that consolidation by “range expanding” as shown with the yellow triangle, you can begin counting down time based on the # of bars (in this case, weekly bars) that touch the most frequent price (mode).
Once time has expired, as shown, the price can correct back towards the start of the trend.
Wishing you all good fortune in the markets.
I also outlined fundamental reasons for the decline in $TSLA, which I will outline in a subsequent comment to this chart.
Best regards,
Tim West
Bitcoin time and price analysisI forgot one thing, bitcoins are involved in the time lanes when they were all falling, after coming out of each time, after a few candles, the trend changed to falling and again it was caught in the falling time.
Until tomorrow, according to the time specified and the chart, we expect a small ascent to below the trend at the price of $34400, and in a few candles, we will start further correction and finally wait for the support test of $28700.
XAUUSD: Gold bottomed, buy it...I'll just leave this here, I leave the specifics to you, but I believe the selloff in Gold is over and it is about to resume the yearly timeframe uptrend.
My clients and me are long already, and looking to capitalize on this run since it is likely to outperform stocks together with most commodities going forward.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
SPX: What if the trend is still intact in the long term?I've been considering this possibility, given the still active quarterly and yearly trend signals in #SPX500 here. You can see that both trends predict rising prices until the end of 2021, or even until Q3 2022. So far, seems like most people have been constantly trying to call tops since the COVID lows, and failing miserably at it. I've had my doubts, but now that vaccines are being rolled out very soon, I believe we might see further upside in equities, specially in the right sectors (which I'm invested in).
Some names might start faring worse if we see increasing inflation, but we have to keep an eye on the yield curve to tell if this is the case or not. For now, it isn't farfetched to assume a rotation to value might take place, but it is not crazy either to assume the index will trend higher for a long time still.
Personally, given the yield of stocks compared to treasuries I think it is reasonable to be long stocks, long term, as long as rates don't rise too fast. A lot of the usual suspects started banging their hyperinflation/death of the dollar drum again, I find it hard to believe they get it right.
I trust in our collective determination and wits, to take us out of this hole we are in since Feb, hopefully I'm not wrong for our sake.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
DXY: Quarterly trend signal?There's a 60% chance that the dollar index will start trending rapidly and steadily, to eventually be 15-20% higher within 16 quarters or less.
This would put it near resistance from the 90s rally top zone. I would look at FX signals more closely from here onwards.
Observe the previous signals, the quarterly timeframe has been quite reliable in the dollar so far.
This signal is valid while price holds over this quarter's open or by the time 16 quarters elapse (this active bar being the 1st one).
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD: Sideways until February...I think we have a clear signal here, the market is sideways dealing with break even sellers from the 2017 top, as well as CME short sellers trying to keep it DEAD below their original attempt to destroy $Bitcoin for good. Unfortunately for them, the world doesn't quite agree with their initial thesis and they might end up squeezed here.
Most traders have been selling or calling for a drop to 13 to 14k to buy back having sold lower. I think price won't please these investors who were antsy.
Sentiment still is that of a wall of worry, or impending doom in most chatrooms...
I'm long term bullish on $Bitcoin here, specially considering all Macro variables, provided we stay on course with the yield curve steepening over time, as the world goes back to 'normal', following the extreme damage caused by post COVID stimulus measures.
Hodl, buy the dip, add once we consolidate for long enough and keep an eye out for the next batch of $PYPL news regarding the rest of the world getting access to buying crypto from their platform.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
EURUSD: The euro has more upside here, might break 1.25...It seems the uptrend in the Euro will keep going here, it was coiling for some time but now ready to trend higher.
I highlight a potential buy zone to enter on slight retracement, price should trend up for the duration of the cyan boxes on chart as long as not hitting the invalidation zone below 1.17698.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Soybeans: Trending up, buy on dips...I think we have a nice setup to buy the dip in Soybean futures or using $SOYB. It's a rather big contract, so keep that in mind if trading futures.
There's a long term trend signal active, for many more months still, so any dip is a buy if you're patient enough.
I highlight a trend that reached its peak in the daily timeframe here, so, a retracement entry is likely to materialize in the coming days and weeks.
Keep an eye on it, don't miss out on the big gains to be had in this market.
As @timwest pointed out, fundamentals for Soybeans and the long term chart are ridiculously bullish now, so, it is going to be very hard to hold on to positions for long enough to reap the benefits, and specially hard to join the trend for most people. The droughts in Brazil are affecting crops, and there's a huge demand from China, since the soybean producing regions were affected by floods recently, there's also a big need for soybeans to produce pork in South America, like the huge farms they are setting up in the South of Argentina.
As a bonus, if the US wants to hurt China, their best bet is to make the food prices go up, specially Soybeans. They had been buying commodities for cheap for a long time until now. That might be changing already, and considering the expectations I have of rising inflation and interest rates, in a post Pandemic world, this is further fuel for the fire in this rally here.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
XRP: Good reward to risk here...I'm publishing this one, since it's a huge reward to risk trade here. I like the setup and it's worth holding a small position in this, or building one slowly during the next 2 months. Upside is significant, see the white box for reference. Invalidation would be if we get a 50% drop or so from here, so you can't really risk too big on this idea. It's a long shot trade, but definitely worth your time with a reward to risk over 84 to 1...There's an airdrop coming, which will likely add some extra profits to your $XRP position if you choose to enter.
dailyhodl.com
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
LTCUSD: Long term uptrend activeWe start to see bullish signals in altcoins now, lagging $BTCUSD's advance, which confirmed a long term trend during July/August.
Upside here is very good, and reward to risk is like 22 to 1. That said, I much prefer $Bitcoin exposure personally, given the fundamentals of $LTC being inferior in my opinion. That said, altcoins can have sharp moves, where they briefly outperform $BTCUSD, so it is of paramount importance to watch the $LTCBTC ratio for a signal to buy (or sell) to ride these moves when viable.
If you're an $LTC investor, hodl, cause it will go a lot higher. Probably peaking before $BTCUSD, if I had to guess...But at least likely to not go down until $BTCUSD tops by 1st half of 2022.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BCHUSD: If $BCH manages to break over this zone next month...It might trigger a bullish signal from this zone, I don't know if it will be viable to trade it, to expect a profit in $BTC terms, but it will likely be tradeable using USD, or margin positions at FTX with BTC collateral, as long as risk is under control.
Upside suggests it can rise over 2k usd over time as per the green box and white arrow.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
PS: BCH is not the real Bitcoin, nor is BSV.
BNBUSDT: Long term forecast for BNBLong term Binance is likely to thrive and their exchange token is quite likely to hit the red box top zone in my chart here.
This is a huge long term advance, and considering the token's advantages if using the exchange, it is quite probable to be reached by Jan/Feb 2022.
Best of luck if trading it.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ADAUSD: Weekly uptrend signal$ADA is in an active uptrend here, as many alts are. Upside is significant, but do your due diligence on whether to buy this particular coin over another. Perhaps a market cap weighted basket approach is better for alts, as long as the resulting index has a bullish trend...Just an idea here, whatever you do, make sure you understand what your max loss is if the trade is invalidated with a drop a tad under this week's range. You will need to learn how to read price action as it develops, to trade these patterns effectively, initially you can follow my forecasts and aim to sell once targets and time forecasts are exhausted.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$XMRUSD: Long term bullish, but be ready to trade in and out...$XMR suggests it can rally to really lofty levels by March 2022, privacy coins might get a nice boost now, apparently, judging by the $PRIV contract at FTX. Personally, I don't love the reward to risk in these trades, so I'm not in but if you're invested you can get a decent idea of what to expect going forward.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
XLMUSD: Long term bullish signal active...Another long shot trade but if $XRP can make it...this one might as well. I'm not entirely convinced of buying it but the technical signal is valid and supports a steady climb going forward. Invalidation is not far so you can risk very small amounts and aim to make a home run trade by 1st half of 2022.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.