Get started

Timeatmode

XAUUSD: Quarterly trend updateGold almost hit the first target in the quarterly timeframe here. If it doesn't go back under this quarter's open it may keep rallying. Upside target #1 is not far, 1615.28, but it could go higher until Q2 2021 at least, reaching prices between 2094 and 2714. The technical pattern that formed while #Gold was under accumulation is called an 'explosion pattern'. This type of trend signal tends to hit targets #2 or #3 at times, so, at the very least it would imply breaking the all time high is possible, before going back down or sideways for a long time again. Note the RgMov proprietary trend analysis indicator is signaling a breakout of all time high values, ahead of price, and acting very strong, this is a good indication of the path of least resistance for #Gold. I bought back metals and miners yesterday, after the dip slowed down, I intend to let these positions run while the trend remains valid, else I would take on a moderate loss if this quarter's range is erased. Otherwise, prospect is very good in the long run for both #GDXJ and #XAUUSD. #XAGUSD is probably bullish as well, but I was a bit worried by the #XAUXAG ratio lately. Although if the trend in stocks grinds to a halt, the ratio is likely to reverse back down. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
AAPL: Puts might pay off...I'm posting this one as an update to my broad stock positions outlook. For now I've moved to cash in all positions, and bought some energy, gold/mining/oil and added to my #Bitcoin holdings with proceeds. I also have some bearish bets in #AAPL, might be a good idea to reduce risk. My bullish posts for stocks might end up resulting in a failed signal, or maybe they endure a large drop before going back up over time. Be safe out there! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by IvanLabrie
SQM: Huge base, retrace gives a low risk buy...Chilean lithium miner $SQM offers a great low risk trade here. There is a gigantic basing pattern, and a breakout that confirmed a huge trend signal here. Price now retraced into a buy zone in the weekly timeframe, while we have a bullish 50/100 EMA crossover in the daily chart. This might attract some attention to the stock. Interesting idea here, I would buy with a stop loss below the red dashed line on chart. Targets are shown by the cyan boxes on chart, both upside and time duration of the projected trends. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:SQMLong
by IvanLabrie
2
Bitcoin vs GBTC: An etf will be approved by Jan 15thI think someone thinks like me here, RgMov is surging in this ratio, showing $BTC outpace $GBTC, Barry Silbert's shady fund, that trades at a massive premium since forever, due to it being the only way to get $BTC exposure for most people with brokerage accounts since basically forever. Once an ETF is viable, premium will vanish, making this a good bet, if you find a broker that lets you short it (and are able to buy real $BTC or futures at Bakkt or CME for the same dollar amount as you short in $GBTC shares). Risk 7% to make up to 30-40% on this trade. 15% allocation would be a good fit. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CME:BTC1!Long
by IvanLabrie
12
$ETHBTC: Monthly chart points lower still...The closer $ETHBTC gets to 0.0134 the higher the reward to risk will be to go long, but until March 2020, the possibility of hitting 0.0063 remains high. After then, we might have a chance to go long in the long term. Path of least resistance remains down in the ratio until March. With talk of ETH2.0 being released by Q3, this might cause a bottom to ensue in the ratio finally, but for that we need to see a major capitulation of ETH holders, which hasn't happened yet. We also need the ICOs who raised tons of ETH to sell all they have to sell, that puts a lid on any advance for now. Breaking below 0.1611 would be a good thing to see, let's wait and see how this unfolds. My guess is that the ratio will accelerate lower with $BTCUSD moving higher towards 10-20k. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
7
EURUSD: Weekly buy zone acted as support so far...There's a big weekly trend active in $EURUSD since two weeks ago, the dip that happened this week gave an interesting opportunity to go long with a good reward to risk ratio and 60% probability of hitting the first box target, or as high as the 2nd box on chart, within 7 weeks. I'm buying at market open since I missed the ideal entry. The trade idea remains valid, and it might be a good addition for a balanced portfolio considering the Iran situation. Oil correlated assets are a bit overextended too, and Iran's influence over oil prices is likely exaggerated judging by the reaction of #USOIL to the US attack, making airlines, oil correlated currency pairs an interesting target for speculation too. Think, EURNOK, or CAD pairs, or possibly even MXN. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
BAC: Confirmed long term trend...I published this one only now, I've been long for a good while, and banked profits recently. I bought $BAC today, near the closing price. I think this stock is primed for a huge rally, that will end in a new all time high by 2021. Definitely one of the strongest long reccomendations I can make to benefit from the long term trend that is active in the S&P500 right now. Management is very competent, and earnings reports have been very positive for the company since banking regulations started being eased recently. This is a big positive for financials, and with $BAC's capable CEO continuing to reach their goals on time, reducing costs and operating at huge efficiency ($BAC has one of the highest efficiency ratios among its peers), and most people pessimistic about the outlook of the economy and the stock market, the path of least resistance is up.
NYSE:BACLong
by IvanLabrie
NGAS: Natural gas is a low risk buyI think Nat Gas is bottoming here for a while. It can swing up strongly, if it holds up. We have 4 days without going any lower, soon to be 5, the next move is going up and retesting the key level at 2.27, if holding over it, the next level is 2.88. We have 5 months already, where price stayed higher than the lowest low which took place back in August 2019. A higher high by February would be extremely constructive for $NGAS. A 3 times the daily Average True Range indicator value stop loss distance would give long positions enough room to breathe, in case it didn't yet bottom in the daily chart. Normally this is a good stop loss methodology, to buy into mid term positions and avoid short term noise. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:NGASLong
by IvanLabrie
GE: Huge signal in both weekly and monthly timeframes...Relative strength in $GE is through the roof here, and very interestingly it comes while insiders are buying shares, after the CEO was fired and the stock removed from the S&P500 index. These are STRONG bullish signals, and not to be ignored. The fact the stock broke into new 52 week highs, on big volume, while the market was down sharply is a clue here. I'll be buying into a half position at market open and looking to add on retrace if viable later on. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:GELong
by IvanLabrie
USDNOK: Overextended, at quarterly support...USDNOK is in an active quarterly uptrend, and now retested a good long term support level. Longs from this zone are likely a very safe proposition, problem is having a safe enough stop loss for the trade, since the time duration of the trend is very long. Price should rebound here, and if it does, it would be a huge reward to risk trade to go long with a tight stop. Alternatively, you can trade with a wider stop under 8.5234, to ride the quarterly trend, both are valid risk management approaches here. I'm choosing the former, since I want to squeeze a very high reward to risk trade if the signal works. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
CGC: Pot stocks likely bottomed, the last of the sellers soldI think #CGC is being accumulated as it bases sideways here, since most people probably sold after it bottomed recently. As pointed out by @timwest, tax loss harvesting might have played a part in the supply that came to the market recently, which should be over by today. I'll be accumulating shares gradually here, currently bought a half position before the close today. A fun fact, I calculated to risk 0.5% of the capital based on 3 times the value of the ATR indicator, which gave me a total of 420 shares per 100k in the account. :p The long term trend has a failed uptrend that needs to be invalidated here, if it holds up and moves over $25-26 it will be a very interesting play during 2020. Happy new year everyone!
CLong
by IvanLabrie
4
XAUUSD: Weekly trend signal activeIt seems there is a mid term opportunity to be long precious metals for 12 weeks here. I'm long since last week again, as a way of reducing risk from my net long equities exposure (roughly 21% net long, I'm short $AAPL, $AMZN, $NFLX, whilst long $TSLA, $BAC, $INTC). Upside in gold can reach as high as upper 1700s, if this signal pans out favorably. Risk is a drop below last week's opening price give or take. A good opportunity would come if prices retrace this week, or in the next 2 weeks, but it seems unlikely to occur. Currently I'm holding a 1/2 position, with room to add more exposure if needed. My longer term view hasn't changed, stocks are likely to keep rallying during 2020 and until mid 2021 possibly. A major move in gold is still a lower probability scenario, but it's always good to buy it periodically as insurance when there's downside risk in stocks. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
USDCAD: Good short entry here$USDCAD favors bearish positioning here, with stops @ 1.31797 at least. Downside to 1.29983 is 60% probable while below this stop level. It's moving down from the most recent NFP support level that broke down a few days ago. Oil is also making higher highs at the same time, so I think this is a high probability trade, with a very well formed technical setup in this chart. Daily mode is a 10 bar level, which implies the time duration of the decline signaled today will extend for 10 trading days starting today. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
BAC: Good daily signal...long term trend is up$BAC offers a good entry to join the long term trend here. The daily timeframe flashed a signal today, if it holds over today's low give or take it will likely accelerate up from here, moving higher for 6 days, before consolidating once more for a week or two. Fundamentals are in place for a massive trend up in financials, with regulations loosening recently, since the financial crisis of 2008. $JPM and $BAC are two favorites here, going into 2021. Earnings reports are also extremely positive for the company, with management doing well on their promises, and digital banking reducing costs substantially for $BAC. Very low risk position for the long term. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:BACLong
by IvanLabrie
XAUUSD: Buy gold after stocks peak in March-April 2021This is a forecast slash guess based on the fact that $SPX is trending in the 2M and 12M timeframes, with big trends set to end by 2021 only. New highs confirm the outlook I had predicted for $SPX before (see related ideas), and sentiment getting negative on equities, despite prices climbing the wall of worry is an amazing signal for us. It's time to be 100% risk on, until March-April 2021. Sell your gold, and don't be in a rush to buy it back. That said, $XAUUSD can present multiple trade opportunities between now and then, just don't expect any huge one directional multi month moves in metals for a long time. When we expect stocks to consolidate or correct in the short term, metals might have some upside swings, but I expect them to remain range bound. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSD
by IvanLabrie
2
JPN225: Nikkei potentially confirming a yearly uptrend soon...The Nikkei has been in an insane climb lately, and Japan as a whole, has been presenting more attractive valuations overall, than US or Europe stocks. Personally, I'm long EM equities, and some US ones, but, Japan does have a valid uptrend in the intermediate term, and soon in the long term as well. One concern you may have is mainly demographic, if you factor in the population aging, which could contribute to a slow down of growth over the long haul, as well as potential geopolitical risks, being so darn close to 'Rocket man'. Talking of Rocket man, did you know there was a Megaman prototype game called like that, before it was called Rockman X in Japan? I didn't either: www.youtube.com Funny stories aside, wether Trump is a Megaman fan or not, this is a significantly interesting chart to monitor for bullish setups in select japanese equities. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:JPN225Long
by IvanLabrie
1
BTCUSD: Titanic effort...long term guessLet's see how my understanding of price patterns and fundamental and postioning/sentiment related variables stack up against the facts: I think $Bitcoin will trend up strongly from here onwards, but the path is not yet fully clear. If prices move similarly to how I think they will between now and April, a new all time high will materialize, after confirming a long term trend signal, which would propel prices towards the vicinity of 290k by Sept-Oct 2021... The time duration of the rally would extend significantly, if this were to come to pass, since a new Time@Mode signal would be active, implying a strong continuation of the trend that started when price jumped up from 442 in 2016. For this to be an ideal price pattern, a move like this would need to occur (or, worse, a drop to 6449 or a bit lower, before rallying again, but I think this bearish scenario is negated now). Options and futures expirations are causing significant moves, and prices tend to be shaken up by the action of derivative traders more and more, so I included this variable into my long term analysis of $Bitcoin here. We're currently long from a very good average cost basis, and aiming to ride this move up for as long as it lasts. Let's see if we validate my scenario over time. Guesses like this are only good to test a hypothesis, the actual trading comes from day to day analysis of real time data and sentiment, as well as news, options and futures positioning and activity, and validation of expected post pattern behavior for each technical forecast as we move forward. The end result is that ideally we are positioned to exploit bouts of volatility, to the upside or downside as they come, and end up surpassing simply buying and holding the instrument at hand. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
12