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BTCUSD: Long term trend is up, but a correction is on the way...Unless we erase last week's downside move, the trend is down for the next 10 weeks. Target is 6833, but might bottom higher (or lower). Watch the behavior here, since Bakkt and Binance.US did nothing for price, downside action is the next logical course of action. I flipped short after hedging spot holdings near 9687.5 today. We were long spot from 5300 to about 7000, and then back in a few times, until the most recent long entry near 9400. Initially we caught upside from the very bottom but ended up underperforming since we moved to ETH instead of holding 100% BTC, causing my trading signals group to underperform holding BTC spot for the first time in many years. This situation might reverse going forward, since I'm confident in the ability of the methodology I learned from my mentor, Tim West, and my experience in this market to help navigate the waves in crypto markets profitably. I did correctly identify the bearish trend in $ETHBTC after it was confirmed and it has moved down since. It will continue to move lower, I wouldn't reccomend holding on to any altcoin, and at this point not even $BTCUSD is safe for investors. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
16
USOIL: Daily trend is upInteresting setup in $USOIL, the fall from the last top favored a bull run in stocks with a 6 month lag, as per @timwest's findings suggest (every time oil falls 25-30% it boosts earnings going forward). Monthly charts show accumulation supporting the market below, and daily confirms a trend by today's close. I think stocks are headed higher with oil here as well. My bias is bullish in energy, oil, chip maker stocks, renewable energy related stocks, and the overall S&P500 index between now and the end of 2020 possibly. Let's see how it goes...Short term stop for oil is below last Friday's low, and short term targets are shown by the yellow boxes on chart. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
3
NVDA: Position trade in place, opportunity to come...My clients and me have been long $NVDA from a couple days ago, before the big gap up and rally from yesterday. The weekly chart now flashed a huge trend signal here, so catching any dip towards the buy zone on chart would be a great opportunity. Valuation and positioning improved dramatically, after the bear market in this stock, so now we can look for buys with tremendous upside in the long term in it. Leverage is quite low here, roughly 1.43x, whilst earning yield sits at 2.13% TTM. It's not too high, but the company has been growing EPS in the past 5 years by 52.5%, in the last year by 30.9%, while sales growth was in the order of 23.2% in the past 5 years. Price to sales is a bit rich here, same as the price to free cash flow ratio, but I'm not too concerned. $NVDA has been rallying widly, and the long term chart still points to further gains to be made. It also has correlated the bull and bear markets in $BTCUSD with some lag, so it seems likely to play catch up to $BTCUSD from here, considering all factors. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by IvanLabrie
SPX: 2-Month timeframe signal will possibly trigger soon...The long term trends that were triggered on Nov 2011, Jan 2013 and Nov 2016, plotted as an overlay to the current daily chart, paint a bullish picture for $SPX and our stocks portfolio as a whole. The long term chart is about to confirm a rally, like how it did back then on those 3 occasions. If it does, we will likely be higher by the end of the year, in the order of 13% higher for the index, give or take. Corrections along the way, could be 5 days long on average, and as much as 6.4% deep, but I don't think that will be the case, since volatility in 2011 was much higher than now, and currently distorting the average correction size significantly. With dems having lower probability of being elected, and a trade deal being closer to becoming a reality, plus negative sentiment having peaked, with Gold and Bonds hitting long term tops possibly, and everyone absolutely hating stocks...I want to be long and let things pan out, same as we do with $BTC for a while now. Let's see how things evolve here, price action in the short term is constructive, with the daily targets show on chart (yellow boxes). Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
EURSEK: Bound to confirm a bullish signal here$EURSEK 4H chart fired an uptrend 1 bar ago, the target is where the daily would trigger a Range Expansion bar today, which would in turn trigger a larger 12 day trend, if not, tomorrow's close is likely to confirm the same trend but with a higher low, above the daily mode level, where most of the accumulation took place. The trend target is the yellow box upper border, time to reach the target is the end of the box to the right. Should hit that level in time, or sooner than expected, as long as holding above the mode box (horizontal barrier below today's low roughly). I'm working on an automated trading strategy to apply Time@Mode rules to FX and CFDs using MT4. Current testing results are good, I have a working prototype, polishing the code to have it ready to trade with full size. Once this EA is good to go I will start a PAMM account using this strategy to trade all main 1h and 4h trends in FX pairs that have fundamental and technical trends in the intermediate to long term, but from a short term perspective. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
Argentina: Back at long term support...Risky outlook given fundamental events, but hopefully the slide stops around here. Primary election results scared investors away, and with good reason: peronists came ahead by a big amount (I call bs, election fraud...maybe). Either way, history proves that growth is not possible without a huge overhaul of labor, social spending, huge tax rates, and the power of the union mafias dwindling. See: www.reuters.com The date this was known, the stock market peaked. Central bank starting taking ridiculous measures ever since, spending money they got from the IMF on futile attempts to prop the peso against the dollar. In the process, killing the stock market advance and eventually devaluating the currency over time, as it was inevitable given the lack of change of fundamentals. I'd watch as events unfold, if things change for the better, this is a good long term opportunity, but until elections are out of the way by October it won't be certain. Best of luck for us Argentinians... Ivan Labrie.
I
by IvanLabrie
BTCUSD: Liquidation likely over...I'm calling the bottom here, after all the liquidation that followed the failure of my last 3-day timeframe signal, as price moved back below the stop loss @ 10986, the selling accelerated until it reached the climax an hour ago. It's likely that the drop was caused by the Plkus Token scammers, as I was discussing with a client of mine. They are chinese and most likely sold BTC and other coins for USDT to sell the coins for cash in Russia. I'm long from 9700, added some margin here. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
15
BTCUSD: 3D Timeframe signal confirmed...If we hold up from here, and don't go below 10769, we will likely hit one of the targets shown by the blue arrows on chart. $Bitcoin is acting strong, showing signs that the long term 2-Month timeframe signal is still calling the shots. Over time, price may go as high as $280000 by late 2020, if it doesn't go back below 6481. Bullish fundamentals are being front ran for a long time, since price started basing near 3500, after bottoming in December 2018. Expectations of institutional money coming to $BTC paired with the intrinsic bullish qualities of monetary policy and POW secured blockchain, which allow us to have a digital gold alternative, a store of wealth and a tool to avoid money controls, among other things...A major disrupting force, considering the huge amount of money that travels between borders and to tax havens, just to name one use case of the tech... Libra was named by many as a bullish catalyst for $BTC -wrongly-, but it's now clear governments can't stop Bitcoin, unlike it. The accumulation base that started way ahead of the Libra news had nothing to do with it, clearly. Do your due diligence, regarding safe guarding your coins, but, don't miss out on this buying opportunity. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
$SPY: Market bottomed a day ago...The long term trend is up until 2021, the intermediate term trend in the 2 month timeframe is about to confirm a new bull market like the one that came after Trump's election in 2016...Interestingly the top of this trend will be at the same time the yearly trend ends. The move that came out of the 1998-2011 consolidation will technically last until 2021. There's a huge amount of trends in different markets with the same time duration, all ending by 2021. Not sure what to make of it, but I'm sure we will see a big move in stocks and $BTCUSD, between now and then. I'd err on the bullish side. The return of stocks vs bonds makes stocks too attractive in the long term, with yields dropping to negative everywhere, there's no other place for money to go, once US treasury bonds yield 0% after inflation as well. For now, yield differential made UST attractive for foreigners, but that might change if rates drop further. Maybe we go back to QE? For now, the logical thing to do seems to be buying quality names, low debt, high earnings yield stocks, and own some $BTC. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
6
XAUUSD: Weekly target exceeded, 2M trend activeGold surged and moved past the first weekly target, but there's time left until the week starting on August 19th, to move higher. The 2 month per bar timeframe shows the clearest trend signal, which is the one calling the shots it seems, in the big picture. The targets are on chart, in blue, as long as we hold over 1276.51, for the next 24 months, Gold can rally higher and higher, towards 1588, at the very least. This makes any daily or weekly oversold situation and interesting buy entry, once it's clear sellers are exhausted after any short term decline. RgMov in the long term chart broke the all time high reached in 2011 in $XAUUSD, this is a really significant strength signal, and I think this might be the start of an even larger trend in gold, so I'm keen on buying big into it during July-August, if we do retrace. Gold mining and physical gold ETFs will be extremely profitable to long once we get the next retrace. I'll be watching attentively...My clients will get the best possible long entry, with the highest risk/reward and win rate once I'm confident we have it. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
$BTCUSD: Guess for posterity...I'm holding a long term spot position in $BTCUSD, chances are the 2-Month timeframe trend pans out favorably overall. If that is the case, we may reach as high as 280k by the time it ends near 2021. It is a 16 month trend, with 14 months left in it. Valid as long as we hold over 6481. The biweekly timeframe formed a base and subsequent trend signal which kickstarted the rally we had so far, but since then, the pace of reaccumulation and trending sped up, with very clear and logical trends being spotted in the 3-Day timeframe. I think this is a good sign, since the longer term trend should hold the market together for the most part, until we hit the target when time expires or sooner. It should be extremely hard for anyone who missed this move to pay up for $Bitcoin, the trend will whipsaw people when they FOMO in, but not fall low enough to ever please dip buyers, or to let those who missed it buy at a cheap enough price for them to be content. This is how trends work. Smart money is heavily invested and shaking people out left and right. Best bet is to buy when it looks ugly but it WON'T be easy. And if you're in, HODL. Volatility of this market is big but the fundamental case for $Bitcoin is a great one and technicals are spot on for a massive rally. Best of luck to all my followers and clients who have been trading with me since a long time ago. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
21
Under Armour: Great brand, huge long term bullish trend...I think $UA is acting very strong here, it managed to shake me out of a long position at break even 2 months ago, but after July's surge, a long term Time@Mode trend signal kicked in. Upside in the stock is tremendous, adventurous traders could follow this monthly trend going long around here, or lower, with a rather tight stop @ 20.23. A larger wiggle room would be better for more conservative traders (and thus smaller size, with up to 2% risk if stopped out), setting stops under 18.92. The trend will remain valid for the next 12 months, after which it might start a large scale consolidation or correction. There's a chance it builds a new trend signal over time and just move higher and higher for a long time (think $AMZN, as pointed out by @timwest in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom today...buying it at $10 a share, when it was cash flow positive ended up being an insanely good long term investment...). Best of luck if buying into it here, whatever your risk profile is. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:UALong
by IvanLabrie
3
ETHXBT: Scariest chart ever...I set an alert here to monitor this chart, if $ETHBTC were to fall below 0.02405, things could turn from bad to worse in the ratio chart. I'm currently long $ETHUSD, and waiting to exit in profit, and I think at one point during July we may get a retracement in crypto markets accross the board...I also think $ETHUSD can confirm a monthly uptrend during July, so I will carefully watch how chart patterns and sentiment evolve over time from here onwards. We need to be aware of this trend signal in the monthly ratio chart as well...positioning of crypto portfolios might be better off if there is exposure to $BTCUSD, and not only alts (even though $ETHUSD will likely perform well). This chart shows the doomsday scenario for altcoin holders, where NO single altcoin beats $BTCUSD ever again...IF this trend signal confirms, odds of that happening will be 70%, for as long as price doesn't go back up, and above the levels specified on chart. USD wise we can make profits in alts, specially in solid ones like $ETHUSD, but they might end up falling short compared to $Bitcoin. Since most people have been stuck on long alt positions since 2017 (where altcoins surged like never before), this chart signal actually working is a very real contrarian scenario. Keep this in mind... Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
14
BTCUSD: No position for now is safer...The biweekly timeframe trend expired, and price corrected 25% in a single day right after. I think there might be some profit taking and a shakeout might take place, until liquidity steps back into the market. The recent claim of a huge short position at Finex should have been followed by a wave of buying since the trader obtained the proceeds of the short sale in USD (around 220 million), but instead we get more selling. An inverted price axis shows a bearish picture, further confirming me of stepping back from Bitcoin for the time being and waiting to buy back on dips during July or August. The 2 Month timeframe bar formed a Range Expansion pattern last month, and usually these were followed by 30-50% retracements during previous bullish trends. Since the 2 Month timeframe trend is up, I'm biased towards going long for the longer term, but in the short to intermediate term I see risk in being positioned. I'm currently hedged, and waiting to cover shorts lower to buy back spot Bitcoin positions and add margin longs once more. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by IvanLabrie
9
GIS: Strong weekly trend possible...$GIS offers a very interesting chart setup here, weekly might erupt into a fierce rally, so buying it after confirmation would prove tremendously profitable if it holds up after earnings. I'd wait for the report to buy it on dips after earnings are out of the way but you could accumulate it during a couple weeks, on dips as well. The sector is the least popular amongst analyst, as pointed out by @timwest. Since I think Gold has likely peaked, it's likely to see stocks grind higher, for longer than most expect and finding the best chart patterns amongst the least popular stocks is the best way of profiting from this juncture. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:GISLong
by IvanLabrie
Gold expressed in Yuan: Trend is up in the quarterly timeframeBut due to retrace here likely...The retrace to come will be a great buying opportunity in Gold, the Yuan chart is an interesting way to look at it, given the activity of chinese capital flows. I'm following the Hong Kong activity closely, specially interesting to observe developments regarding the extradition laws in the former British colony. Recently, protesters dissuaded the government to move forward with this law, so for now, things didn't escalate, but I'm sure chinese money is likely to flow out of the country gradually, towards gold and possibly crypto, before things get harder for them to escape via HK. Keep an eye on this chart, a retrace in it will bring a great trading opportunity, and it will likely occur once commercial gold traders approach net long or flat positioning once again. See related ideas for more info. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
DXY: Neutral until the dam breaks...The end of the 90s dollar rally could have been anticipated by anyone using Time@Mode techniques to read the charts. Back then, the last active trend signal in the quarterly timeframe had expired right at the very top of the move, before prices moved lower until 2008. A similar trend can occur in the not so distant future, since the bullish trends are over, but we still don't have a confirmed down trend signal either. A key price level is the 91.83 zone, what I'd call a Maginot line...If, and when, the dollar index moves below this level, price can swiftly move lower for a long time. Until that happens, choppy market action is more probable than a steady down trend. There's no active uptrend currently, so the path of least resistance is sideways until support breaks. For it to break, a major macro and geopolitical catalyst must occur, otherwise, we can expect the status quo to hold. The accumulation of gold reserves by many countries is an interesting fact, the push by Facebook to launch an SDR like stable-coin, backed by reserves of multiple foreign currencies, which apparently has some ideological backing by the IMF and other entities, is also noteworthy. In this no growth enviroment, trends aren't likely to trigger easily, we should monitor the emerging markets, China, Brazil, and Argentina come to mind. Argentina and Brazil are on the brink of possible labor reforms, that could spark growth, from the depths of hell where their economies sit. Until a very evident catalyst occurs, we won't have an easy to trade trend in the Forex market. So, don't be in a rush to jump into any FX, gold, or commodities positions yet. These factors I mention are of long term nature, over time, things will become clearer and we will have the chance of trading when odds and risk/reward favor doing it. I've decided to watch for long entries in Gold, but we need a correction in it to enter longs again. Currently, it's quite probable to see the stock market break the ATH and go higher for a while, before any sizeable correction can occur, sentiment just doesn't favor any other direction. Gold sentiment and charts indicate we will retrace once again, after hitting the 1358 resistance from the daily high of the Brexit day. Either short gold, long stocks or wait in cash until we can buy Gold again, way lower. If it were to fall below 1246, then the quarterly trend in it failed -once again-. Unless that happens, any sizeable dip will lead to a rally once more. Best of luck to us all, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXY
by IvanLabrie
1