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XAGUSD: Silver has bottomed...It's clear Gold and Silver, and gold and silver miners have reached a long term bottom at the recent lows. It's smart to enter long positions on dips if you're not yet long. Inflation numbers have been the highest in a long time, election fears cause instability in equities, SKEW has been falling as asset prices tank, and investors have been buying call options, judging by rising VIX numbers since the market toppped. This indicates sentiment has turned bullish, at the top. Weekly time at mode signals indicated $SPY had a 13 week decline ahead of it, and long term charts indicate the market may remain sideways/down until the 2nd half of 2019. Add to this the data from the Commitment of traders report, where silver commercial hedgers turned net long for the first time in ages, after gold bottomed, and commercials also covered shorts and went net long previously in the yellow metal too... Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclaimer: I hold long positions in Gold, GDXJ, TLT, EURUSD and looking to enter longs in Silver as well.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
GDXJ: Jr. miners have bottomed - upside to shy of $70 possible$GDXJ is an exchange traded fund which lets investors gain exposure to a basket of gold and silver mining companies, which can be a very interesting vehicle to benefit from major moves in precious metals. In this case, we see that the daily chart is likely to start trending sharply up from here, with a chance of breaking above the long term resistance zone above, in which case, prices could surge close to $70 over time. We're long from today, entered a 9.5% position at $28.15, shortly after the market opened. We may add to it on dips, if prices retrace back into today's range next week. Best of luck if following me here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:GDXJLong
by IvanLabrie
XAUUSD: Gold is trending from here...I think we may be in the presence of a 3-day timeframe uptrend signal in Gold. Similarly to the pattern that emerged after bottoming in late 2015, Gold prices are set to soar from here onwards, if this signal pans out. Monthly and higher timeframes are bullish as well, so we might be in for a ride, with prices rallying over 1400 if we break over the long term uptrend mode you see in white above (white box on chart). As I was describing in my Silver publication, fundamentals, sentiment and technicals align, so we can expect a sizeable long term move off this juncture. One interesting sidenote is that cash levels in brokerage accounts are at really low levels, which also favors the bullish gold case, together with the evidence presented in the other chart. You may go long here or on dips, preferrably buy on dips if not already in. We hold long positions since I published my macro analysis chart when gold was roughly 1179, and looking to add to it on dips here. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
BTCUSD: Market is sideways...I think cryptocurrencies are likely to remain range bound, which means short term traders are mainly in control, while long term players await for fundamentals to evolve favorably to position themselves. Overall bullish bias, with weekly sellers exhausted and very few reasons to get momentum in any direction. I'd stay away from this market for now, my interest will gravitate back towards it by the time MtGox creditors receive their $BTC, or after ETFs or cryptocurrency trading hit proper exchanges like Nasdaq, etc. Fundamentals are bullish, but lacking to provide the backbone needed for a long term advance, and catalysts aren't there yet, for a move to the downside so the market will remain sideways, hurting the most people possible in every swing... With BTC being designated a commodity by the SEC, over time, we might see it be treated like gold is in the US. I think over time, as people are shaken out by the potential shake out decline that hordes of MtGox hodlers rushing to sell at exchanges might bring, would cause enough of a negative sentiment extreme to form a long term bottom we could buy, eventually. Patience, time at mode analysis points to a long sideways downwards drift until May-June 2019, which aligns with these developments panning out. Good luck navigating these murky waters, if you try and do so. Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by IvanLabrie
6
$USDJPY: Looks toppy here...I think we have a clear top signal here in $USDJPY, which aligns with the price action in Gold and $DXY. I'd reccomend a short position with a wide stop, and a lot of patience. You may enter averaging in during the next 3 days, or over the course of a week to a month, depending on the timeframe you're trading from. Daily, I'd use a stop over 113.85, and average in. The weekly signal failed to hit its bullish target for this pair, which implies weakness once we break below a weekly low next. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
1
Broad market update: DeleveragingI think we might be about to see deleveraging in the market, judging by the action in the yen, together with Gold rising on falling $VIX, while $SPX peaks, but fails to advance further after $VIX fell slightly. I suspect mid term election woes plus all the barrage of bad news related to trade wars and other topics might push investors into cash. Personally I've sold all my holdings except for my positions in gold and $TSLA, and will look into rebuying once a bottom is clearly spotted in the broad market. For now, I will focus on determining if this thesis is correct, and if so, look into maximizing my gains in the gold rally that might emerge from here. Gold hit a monthly support level, got oversold, whilst being in a monthly uptrend and flashed a huge buy signal from the Commitment of traders report data, whilst the daily trend ended, forming a potential reversal setup. Risk/reward is optimal on the long side now. I will scale into the trend as we get more and more confirmation and other trend continuation signals later on. Targets for it are as high as 1550, if we confirm a monthly T@M signal eventually. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by IvanLabrie
12
BTCUSD: Weekly trend is down...As per my previous analysis, we had a good chance to rally from the last local bottom, back to 8500+- to top there and resume the bear market decline. We were long, rode a move from 6360 to 8200-8300, and flipped short but we were shaken out of the short sadly. Now the signal is very clear and the weekly confirms the downtrend with full force. Being the main timeframe in control here, this scenario is of very high probability, since it goes against mainstream sentiment and aligns with the longest term pattern which is currently implying a bearish/sideways phase until we reach the vertical green line in my chart -which nicely aligns with the timing for MtGox coins to be distributed and likely sold at market via exchanges by desperate hodlers who were stuck since Gox went to hell-. We can look to enter shorts at market, gradually, or wait for a retracement entry after the weekly close, which would give us a far greater reward to risk ratio. Cheers, Ivan Labrie. PS: Don't be a stubborn hodler, please go to cash...unless you really enjoy losing money for no good reason.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
36
USDARS: Fellow Argentinians, sadly the dollar rally continues...The target here is big, but it could go even higher depending on how it acts. I'd reccomend to divest positions in local equities and bonds, and get exposure to US equities and the dollar, or pairs like the dollar/yen. After this next top, we could see a bigger correction in the dollar accross the board though, so I want to be ready to capture the reversal, in particular by going long gold once we have full confirmation, which may come by September. Best of luck to us all, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
SOHO: Potential quarterly uptrend...$SOHO is a very interesting income play @timwest reccomended over at his chatroom many times. The chart has been setting up for an explosive rally, and we've been accumulating positions for a while, while also playing some shorter term swings in between and collecting the dividend each quarter. Yield is very good and the company has been really solid, so it is easy to reccomend this one as a potential long term hodl trade. Best of luck if you consider investing in this company. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:SOHOLong
by IvanLabrie
1
AUDCAD: Good chance to go long given the spread in oil vs copperI think we've reached a point where the huge spread between oil and copper will close, this type of scenario favors an $AUDCAD long position. The chart is constructive already, so, it could end up flashing a nice trend signal from here. I'll be looking to enter longs at market open, and exit once the spread is closed once more. You could also trade the pair, long copper, short oil, either weighted based on volatility, or equal dollar weights on each leg. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDCAD: Low risk long entry...I like the $USDCAD pair here for a swing trade opportunity, given the trend in the $DXY chart, and in the $EURUSD and $USDJPY pairs, as well as movement in oil and gold, I reckon the trade has very good odds. Market participants have been pricing in the fact that the Fed won't hike rates again this year, but it isn't clear if that will be the case or not. Either way, the technical picture is clear, and given the economic growth in the US, this trade has decent odds of panning out favorably. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6
TSLA: Updated weekly viewAfter a great earnings conference call, $TSLA started jumping higher, and apparently shorts are being squeezed. The weekly Time @ Mode signal implies price can hit 449.36 within 9 more weeks or less. I'm holding longs since we hit $250 roughly, and added a few times on the way up recently, and on dips. Elon Musk claims $TSLA will be cash flow positive and profitable in very short order, and the production and sales growth certainly is very positive, as well as updates regarding their AI chips and software for self driving. I think we can see a very sharp rally from here, it will be challenging to not sell too soon. Hodl! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
10
EWZ: Likely bottomed or bottoming here...Brazil is extremely washed out, but it has held a long term support level so far. I think odds are the market turns up from here. I'm long $PBR in particular, since it is showing tremendous relative strength vs the brazilian market, and it has a long way to go to catch up to oil, closing the gigantic spread it now has. The situation with the CEO resigning caused further headwinds in the stock, but it has now stabilized and coiling against overhead supply...over time it will break above it following the earnings report most likely -as long as the fundamental story doesn't change and debt continues to be tackled effectively...-. As for the $EWZ chart, we have hit a monthly low volume support, and also the lowest point of the last time they almost impeach Temer, this was a huge capitulation day for many investors and it is where most stocks bottomed back then. I'd look into finding interesting brazilian companies rather than buying the index directly, but it gives us a good reference point here. Another interesting chart is $EEM, and the Chinese stock market, both of which are also affected by the rally in the dollar that we had so far. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:EWZLong
by IvanLabrie
6
SPY: Weekly viewMarket is likely to rally until October and top at $300.21, likely related to the midterm elections generating volatility by then. Options traders are net bearish, currently, so I think we have ample room to go up despite concerns about the trade war (most likely overrated) and rates rising. As @timwest pointed out many times, in this case, rates will rise but overall, investing in US equities is attractive so likely the demand for liquidity to finance new projects, etc. thanks to the new tax law will be a cause of rates going higher as well, but not a reason to turn bearish on equities when the economy is set to grow. IF this weekly trend pans out, which seems likely, we may have a good way to time the top, and by then, we should see traders turn bullish on stocks once more, like it happened at the top in February. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
BTCUSD: 3-Day timeframe flashing a buy...It seems like we might get a rally back to test weekly sellers in the vicinity of $8400, by Mid September. If this is the case we might go sideways near the top to then resume the decline, after sentiment becomes too complacent and people believe the bear market is over. Currently, we might see unwinding of shorts positions due to the ETF news, which would make it more advantageous for futures traders to flip long and reshort back at the previous short zone where they likely entered, around $8400+-. I covered my shorts and flipped long at 6360, if we don't break this week's low, we will likely see the bullish scenario outlined here pan out, but we need to remain ready to exit and flip short once it's clear this rally topped, since the long term chart remains potentially bearish until at least May 2019, and given the fact that Mt Gox coins are likely to hit the market by Feb 2019, it's unlikely that long term investors would risk it without hedging at least. As a sidenote, most altcoins are also acting strong, with $ETH, $ZRX and $ZIL, to name a few, looking very constructive for further upside. Since the market has less participation following the top in December 2017, chart signals become harder to determine, or at least win rate could potentially suffer. So far we have fared really well, but it's always wise to control risk not getting married to positions, and sizing them correctly. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
60
SPY: Up to date daily/weekly analysisThe recent correction that affected the US stock market is likely over for the time being, the weekly uptrend can resume here, but, consider that we are still during a longer term consolidation phase, following the end of a 2-month timeframe uptrend expiration back in December. The big correction we had after peaking in February further confirms the idea that one pattern was completed, and a cool down phase is likely to materialize, as is clear that is happening now. I suppose we might see a mostly bullish trend until mid term election fears surface. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclaimer: I'm not long $SPY myself, but instead hold a portfolio of individual stocks that offer considerably higher returns than the index potentially.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie