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BTCUSD: Downtrend active in 3-day timeframe, target sub 4kWe have a new downtrend signal in this timeframe, which so far has captured the moves since Bitcoin topped really accurately. We have ridden the move up from the April lows and sold at 9816.7. I now aim to enter shorts on retracement, which may come in the next few days, maybe grinding until the Consensus event, to then collapse rapidly. What we can't be sure of is how far price will go, since apparently strong long term buyers have been accumulating Bitcoin on dips close to 6k. I think it's likely that these buyers get tested next, as we have already tested the strong sellers that lurked in the 9900-11000 range and they are in control currently. Sentiment got one sided, before topping, as most traders still active in crypto were in profit and happy, and many recovered their losses from before and regained confidence. I don't think it's likely to go any higher, but it could also break above the resistance zone, in which case this short idea would be invalidated. Unless we go above 9860 again, price will most likely trend down from here onwards, and bottom as per the downtrend signal implications. Very interestingly, this could lead to Bitcoin's ultimate bottom of the bear market, to then rebound and hold in the same 6-11k region for longer before breaking out, upwards by May or June 2019. This gives long term buyers a long time to accumulate positions at low prices, and short futures to hedge rallies, while building billionaire positions in the OTC market, holding coins securely, off exchange. Let's see how it evolves, for now, we are in cash from 9816.7 and seeking to enter shorts with a rather tight 'stop' -note I'm not using stops to avoid telling my broker where they should make price spike to, to f### me.- Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
82
EURUSD: At options expiration support...go long on strength!$EURUSD, $XAUUSD, $XAGUSD and other pairs likely bottomed in the last 3 days... I'd reccomend looking for long entries on strength here. The option expirations levels I plotted here are key fundamental support and resistance levels we can use to guide us in FX or equities. Most analysts and banks are bearish on the Euro here, but this move is overdone, and a return to the top of the range is likely, since sell pressure is likely exhausted. If long, stop should be under the last daily low, and entry breaking a previous day high. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
Oil: I'm neutral on it for the year...I've been contemplating wether oil can go higher or not from here but given the sentiment I had made a guess for price action, that would let it reach the monthly target on time, before collapsing. Longer term, It might be an excellent buy once it does retest support below, but for now it's not something I'd reccomend buying. I do like the $CAD long, and it shows a big spread vs oil, so I keep exposure via that trade, but oil is only 4% of Canada's GDP, so it's not such a big drag on it if it doesn't go up. I'll be watching it from afar, and reccomend doing the same this year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOIL
by IvanLabrie
5
BTCUSD: Sideways until April 4-6thUpdate for all anxious traders expecting big moves asap every flippin' day. Buyers are at risk of seeing price return to their entries or lowers, sellers at the mercy of margin calls if highly leveraged. I sit in cash, and will remain in cash until we get a buy signal during the first days of April as per the chart. Then I will decide wether to sell, or sell short at resistance, as it is highly unlikely to breach the mode resistance in black. Note this is a 3 day timeframe trend signal, but the chart here is daily to highlight an obvious trendline people watch. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
76
USDCAD: UpdateSince the weekly and daily uptrends pushed us higher, we now face a conundrum. Is this a great chance to rejoin the monthly decline that recently caused a gigantic fall in this pair? Is this a great chance to go long and aim for really high targets once breaking above resistance at 1.31? Fundamentals seem to suggest fears of bears are overblown, and Canada is in much better shape than traders give it credit for. Positioning shows hedge funds have been net short since July 2017, and gradually covering shorts until now. Most of the unwinding happened after we closed over this area where stops where waiting, most likely, and is almost dont, since they are close to flat according to the Commitment of traders report. This observation had escaped me, when I made the previous chart, could make a big difference, if we encounter sellers at the monthly resistance around 1.31. If not, the short unwind might take us higher, but it is unlikely given that it would take time to break the resistance, and this would nullify the squeeze thesis. I closed my longs and I wait to short around the 1.31 mark. This would be a position trade, so, we won't use a stop and size the trade to risk 1% of our account with a very wide invalidation for the trade to give room for volatility. As a bonus, oil seems to have gained support thanks to the situation in Venezuela lately, and the chart we now have a new weekly mode for a possible contiunuation of the weekly and monthly rally. Upside in oil is significant, but it's risky to trade it, compared to this trade in the $CAD. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
13
$INTC: Forecast/guessI'm 'hodling' $INTC, my average cost basis is quite good here, so I can afford letthing this winner run. I think we could be in the presence of a huge weekly uptrend but we need to break above the overhead resistance zone before having more confidence in this scenario. For now, I'd reccomend caution and only holding up to 10% of your portfolio in it if invested. The Spectre and Meltdown security flaws are real and have put a dent in the stock but it's clear long term buyers are still in control, judging by how supply as absorbed lately. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by IvanLabrie
4
Inverse DXY: Neutral, sideways chop for 3 years...The dollar sank to support, a very long term support level as revealed by 6 month timeframe bars, and it won't break below it for another 34-35 months. So we are likely to see short term trends that last a couple months, and go back and forth in a sideways range. The bias longer term is bearish for the dollar, so I'll be specially interested in buying oversold dips in the Euro, but won't commit to long term trending positions. Position trading is not likely to produce good results, but swing trading might. My reccomendation: if you're a trend trader, avoid FX markets like the plague. If you have strategies to trade intermediate term to short term swings, then the volatility might suit you. Else, stay away. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXY
by IvanLabrie
6
Silver: Very interesting junctureMonthly and daily charts show Silver is oversold here, and turning up...The confluence of technical signals and contrarian potential of this trade make it extremely interesting and definitely worth a try. If our long positions work, we could end up riding a massive uptrend to $25+-, or even higher, provided we first go higher and break above the monthly modes on chart, to eventually signal the uptrend to $25+ as per the chart. This signal isn't yet active, but is within the realm of the possible and logical. I'd reccomend keeping some exposure to gold and silver, specially now, given the charts and sentiment. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
15