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BCHUSD vs BTCUSD: Who'll win the race to the top?I've been monitoring sentiment data and concluded that the rallies I see in altcoins might have to do with the fact that the recent drop in $BTCUSD might only be a shake out before seeing higher prices, since people freaked out rather quickly after the drop. If we were seeing a top, they would remain calm and complacent, and count their profits in advance, when they reach their ridiculous targets. $BCH is being accumulated and now ready to move up once more. Risk/reward in it is far superior and I like it as a contrarian play. Until I get a good enough signal to buy $BTC, I'll remain flat, and involved in other coins instead. If my analysis is correct and $BCHUSD doesn't fail to rally, it would easily outperform $BTCUSD during the next leg up, even if $BTCUSD lands on the top target at 23305.1 by year end or earlier. After the year ends, odds of a correction or consolidation of large scale become huge, so, I'd reccomend being cautious, probably good to take some money out of crypto by then. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
29
BTCUSD: Updated view - Probability matrixI've revised my analysis and figured out what paths are possible from here onwards. In any case, buying BTC is not safe nor ideal now, since we might get a consolidation sooner rather than later. The corrections that may form can take us way lower, or simply sideways from wherever it tops, but, overall, they imply no more growth after time runs out, for an extensive period of time. Finding the bottom of said corrections, or predicting how far down they will go can be done, but only with more data that will reveal itself over time. Now, if you're long my advice is to hold and watch price patterns develop. If you don't have mastery of the time at mode methodology, it will be hard for you to figure this out, but at least you can rely on tracking your emotions, and being cautious when extremely hyped, and greedy when fearful but in profits. As for people on the sidelines, chasing price now is not wise at all. I'm still making money from being on select altcoins with good fundamentals and technical trend signals which I joined, while risk/reward and probability were optimal, and I'm still far ahead of $BTCUSD holders, by actively trading in and out of positions instead of blindly hodling $BTC. I'm not bothered by losing a bit in $BTC terms, after having beaten it heavily in the past two years. Some people will get obsessed and do stupid things due to this, so, please, don't be too greedy. You may not see other opportunities in front of your eyes, due to focusing too hard on one thing. As for $BTC, I will explain this in more detail in a video, but also want to have the chart with the forecasts published. Cheers, Ivan Labrie. PS: To the haters, chill guys, it's not good for your health to be so negative. If you carefully review all my publications and learn more about how trading works, you might change your mind. It's not about absolute returns at the expense of having wild volatility and drawdowns in your equity, it's about maximizing risk adjusted returns. Maybe some day you'll get it. At times, haters are just people who need to criticize others to hide their own flaws...not good behavior, speaks bad about anyone doing it. I'm a positive guy, you won't ever see me actively criticizing people all the time. Lighten up!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by IvanLabrie
51
BTCUSD: Top is inI believe we're topping here. I'm out of BTC but also out of exchanges, so I would only risk sending small deposits to bitmex or okex to go short if willing to. Otherwise, being in altcoins like $BCH or $ETH, would pay off similarly possibly. There are other picks we're in, but won't disclose all here. I'm long $BCH but I'm in no way endorsing or supporting Jihan and his miners' cartel, I dislike the centralization they introduced into BTC, but, it's one of the negative fundamentals, together with potential regulations, and the action of CME traders, that will lead to a top here. This might start a lengthy sideways/volatile bear market. Not a straight line down...Altcoins may flourish, sporadically, and we may eventually see this space evolve into something much larger and greater. Looking forward to it. Best of luck and don't drink the permabulls koolaid. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
64
EURUSD: Uptrend kicking off?I'm long $EURUSD from 1.16 give or take, and aiming to add once we break out from weekly resistance, which I think we will be tagging within 2 more days. There's a significant chance that the prevalent opinion that the dollar bottomed and that we are seeing a 'head and shoulders' top in the Euro are wrong, and all those shorts get squeezed to death. This would create a furious rally that could take us close to 1.3 during the course of 3 months give or take. Stay safe, stay a contrarian...Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
34
BTC+BCH: 1 full Bitcoin like someone sayI don't fully subscribe to this idea, but the chart is clear. We have a weekly rally for 2 more weeks, daily currently in a pause, but could rally again in 3 more days. This basket hit the first weekly target, so it could stagnate if $BCHUSD keeps falling, or, it could rally to target #2 over 14k. It might not be a bad idea to reload on $BCH, to match your numerical amount of $BTC held, if you sold already -ideally higher-. Let's see how it evolves...Once this rally ends, we might start a bear market for 2 years, possibly due to the mess caused by miners and the political factions in $BTC. Some altcoins might benefit from this, like ZEC and XMR which I already discussed in a previous publication, or $LTC, that could be seen as a $BTC replacement, without the drama, or many more. Will be an interesting period, a boon for 'stock picking'. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
19
SPX: Updated daily view$SPX is trending up clearly, and is ready to go even higher before starting a retracement or consolidation period for a few weeks, probably after earnings are out for all companies. I'm long a few select individual stocks, following my main investing themes for this year, and not holding direct exposure to passive funds or index or sector ETFs personally. Refer to related ideas for my long term forecast and other ideas for $SPY/$SPX. Sentiment has been negative throughout this whole rally, peaking right before and after the elections results came out in November 2016. It has been a very interesting year, and things will continue to be exciting from a trading perspective. As an investor, I'm interested in riding big emerging trends in unloved stocks, and trying to stay away from high valuations in tech overall. I have a sizeable gold position, 25% of my net worth since it was at $1220, but I'm not a declared bear like most people in gold -who have been either losing, or missing out on the stocks, AND crypto rally since 2009-. I think it's good to keep a clear head, and be open to new data to adjust your views. Technicals show we can rally significantly in the short term, and get a consolidation later on, so be ready to hedge once more by then. I'll update this chart when the time comes. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
6
ZEC and XMR: Could they replace ETH, maybe BTC?This is just an idea, very speculative one at that...seeing the ample discounts in $ZEC and $XMR, I started thinking that maybe, fundamental risks and technical challenges in the $ETH roadmap, and the $BTC scaling war could benefit these two coins in particular. I'm putting them both as a highly speculative long idea here, you could accumulate gradually over time and hold, or watch them carefully, specially once $BTCUSD tops at 6900 or up to $9750 this year, before starting a bear market that can last 2 years, possibly. An alternative is a tight stop long, risking this to be the bottom, but you shouldn't risk more than 1% on it. I'd risk even smaller if going long. Buying a 1-2% allocation on each wouldn't kill anyone. What is the general concensus here? I'll be doing more research on this subject, I think we might be on to something. A few positives and negatives: Negatives first: ZEC so anon that supply numbers could be fake? The BCN code they used to fork $XMR off could be suspect, maybe there is a problem with ring signatures? Inflation in ZEC? Developers aren't anonymous, unlike Satoshi... ZEC has institutional backing Positives: ZEC has ZK Snarks and finite supply of 21 million coins Both are black market friendly/money laundering galore -for now?- XMR community and development teams are solid. ZEC development team is really solid. ZEC has institutional backing ETH killers, potentially both...POS is a big risk, unknown outcome. BTC killers? Store of wealth could be fulfilled by ZEC easily, but inflation is a bit steep now. XMR, similar situation. Asic miners I think are a big problem in BTC, centralization risk when you can't compete freely on hashpower. Although this could change with new companies entering the space in Japan for example. Dash sucks. ETC sucks. LTC sucks. Feedback welcome, Best of luck. Ivan Labrie.
XLong
by IvanLabrie
64
GLEN: Glencore is in a strong uptrendI'm long $GLCNF/$GLEN here. I like the outlook for Cobalt, as the EV race intensifies. Supply of this metal is constrained, and as demand surges, prices will follow, intensely. With some luck, I'm correctly calling the bottom of this pullback, which gives us a low risk to join this trend. I'm already positioned from lower levels in $VALE, and also in $BHP, and $GLEN was the missing piece for my portfolio that gravitates around this and other themes currently. Best of luck if joining me here, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
LSE:GLENLong
by IvanLabrie
4
BTCUSD: Last rally started...$BTCUSD is rallying again, the signals on chart point to a rally to 6900 to 9750 by the end of November or sooner. I'm holding BTC in my crypto account, but also trading $ETHUSD with leverage. Currently, I think we can take a few shorter term long trades with margin but we'd need a dip to present itself in the next few days. Most people have been interestingly bearish before this breakout, which gave me peace of mind holding longs. At the top we might see the most intense bullishness present itself in the media, public opinion, social media, everywhere...be ready to sell and sell short once we do top, cause things can get ugly, after completing a long term rally, as per Time @ Mode. We could see a bear market last for 10-20 months after 2018 starts, not a good prospect. It was clear to me that as investors seek to benefit from the airdrops in Bitcoin, they would start buying BTC with all other alts, and cover shorts to do so. For example, the Bitcoin Gold fork, would force investors to withdraw funds from exchanges. In the case of the 2x fork, Bitfinex already claimed they will grant you a balance in the new fork once available, for all spot and margin holdings you may have in BTC. This can create a lack of liquidity and a rush to buy BTC, with all you got going into the snapshot date, and given the enormous short positioning we had, a short squeeze rally, which I think already started. It's probably accurate to say very few -like us- saw this coming. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. PS: If interested in benefitting from my insights and trade reccomendations on a real time basis, message me for access to my trading services.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
99
ETHUSD: Long again, after covering ETHBTC shorts in profitWe had a stint with the short side recently, a quite succesful one, but at the bottom price action suggested that strong buyers had entered the market, so I covered shorts and flipped long $ETHUSD. Now a weekly signal is active and we can resume the last portion of the monthly uptrend to its eventual top -at least for almost a year after hitting it-. Targets on chart, between 863 and 1741.22, to be achieved by the end of November, or sooner. If we don't have any bearish surprise and drop under support on chart, we will surely achieve these goals. Ethereum's coming fork, which will grant it with some interesting features, would be only the first part of the initially dubbed Metropolis upgrade, but comes at the right time, when $BTCUSD is already surging, so it makes sense to see both of them rally together while this trend lasts. My signals indicate the longer term trends in crypto are about to end, and we might enter a lengthy bear market phase, but careful study of multiple timeframes, sentiment and fundamentals gives me confidence that there's one last, and particularly sharp rally in the cards. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
32
BTCUSD: UpdateSideways action here...I'm waiting for fundamentals to evolve, the chart shows mixed signals that could develop into both a downtrend or an uptrend with equal chance...a bit leaning towards uptrend due to the long term chart, and also the poor follow through to the downside recently. Other than that, I don't yet have a good enough low risk setup here, so, I chose to wait in cash for now. Keep an eye out for the dates on chart. I can think of a few possibilities, a bullish scenario would be if suddenly the SEC approves the Winkledudes ETF, which could result in everyone forgetting about the China regulatory crackdown risks, and cause a massive short squeeze rally. A bearish scenario would be if we don't get any new positives, and China confirms eventually that they are banning everything, and we see an increase in oversight everywhere, with maybe the CTFC and the SEC making US investors' life hard. The timing for this to unfold will be slow and painful, probably, since China won't make any official remarks, or at least it is unlikely to do so, before 1 month after the end of the Communist party congress, which takes place during October. Let's wait and see... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by IvanLabrie
35
ETHBTC: Breaking down...The terms Bitfinex published for the upcoming B2X fork, may have started a chain reaction that is putting pressure in all coins that are paired against $BTC, as people borrowing $BTC, will also owe $B2X tokens after the Nov. Fork. Pair this with a lack of liquidity in $BTC from people withdrawing to receive the Bitcoin gold airdrop, and you have an explosive catalyst for a short squeeze in everything against $BTC. If I'm right, $ETHBTC -and everything */BTC- will melt down, and $BTCUSD could reach heights between 6300 and 9700 quickly, leading to an spectacular blow off top by Nov. 18th, as people return to exchanges to drop thier B2X and chaos breaks loose, with not 1, but 3 BTC forks in existence competing for the top dog spot. Miners will be severely divided by then, and I think the outcome could have disastrous consequences in the short and intermediate term, but, after the bear market ends, we might resume the uptrends in these instruments. Best of luck if shorting here, keep a tight stop and let it cruise. At least, swap alts for $BTC and wait for $BTC top if long crypto. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
41
ETHUSD: Bird's eye view, don't miss the forest for the treesI'm holding long positions in $ETH, and aiming to add once we get further confirmation of the weekly uptrend resumption. Recent events have led to a rollercoaster of emotional trading and a lot of people badly positioned. I was anticipating a sentiment reset before, as you can see in my related ideas, it was in fact needed to resume the long term uptrend in cryptocurrencies, but it's never easy to maneuver keeping the long term picture in mind when short term charts and sentiment seem abysmal, but that is when opportunity comes knocking. Let's see if things evolve favorably, if I'm on the right track, market participants have weighted risks from China's crack down far too heavily and not considered positives like Japan's position in this juncture, or the massive potential of ICOs as a means to democratize venture capital, or heck, the implications of $ETH finally scaling once Metropolis finally goes live in 2 weeks. I added fundamental events and key levels on chart, I think we might see a quiet period during China's golden week, but, some traders might use the lower liquidity to squeeze shorts, after jewish investors return to the market after Yom Kippur. Keep an eye out for these developments, and be ready to increase your exposure, or, start getting involved in this great trend soon. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
21
NEOUSD: Daily trend is up, resuming the weekly rally is possibleI'm waiting to reenter $NEO, looks like we have a good chance to rally from this level later on, after the 8th or the 13th this month, at least...possibly later on as well, but it's yet to be seen how prices align with the timing of pending fundamentals as we move forward. The picture is becoming clearer by the day for me, which is when we start having good results from our combined technical and fundamental approach. Keep in mind the amount of shorts that are trapped here, they can single handedly push the price over $130 easily once squeezed. You can wait and enter on the breakout, or accumulate positions on dips. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NLong
by IvanLabrie
16