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BTCUSD: Bottom's in - Expecting Segwit activation and no splitI updated my last publlication when I went long again. I have a full position now, in all my crypto portfolio. Waiting to add after we get further confirmation, and after being in some profit, on each and every single trend continuation signal on the way up. Sentiment and technicals gave me a good signal today, so I closed my $ETCETH and $ETCXBT longs, and kept my $ETH as a longer term stake. Made out with 2% with it, which helps alleviate some of the loss. Hopefully, people following me have a reduced drawdown, and are in good shape to continue following this powerful trend. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
186
ETHEUR: Potential uptrend continuation soonThe ETHBTC chart implies we need to wait until July 27-29th at least, but the fiat chart shows time can be a bit shorter for the start of the rally. There's still a chance to go lower during this time, so, I won't take action until it is clear we hold here for longer. I like how sentiment is quite negative on $ETH lately, and how people are scared about risks in $BTC as well. We can get a good uptrend continuation signal in the weekly timeframe soon, to rejoin the monthly rally, which is active until we hit that red vertical line on chart. Then we could see a larger correction back down, in a crash of epic proportions, or, simply, a slow and lengthy grind, to extend until 10 months later than that. In the short term, my reccomendation is to stay on the sidelines, but prepare to add cash injections to your crypto accounts once more, to buy into the $BTC and $ETH comeback close to the end of the month. I will get instant flak, for this chart, I'm pretty sure people will find the targets insane, but it is what the chart shows as possible/logical. Fundamentals seem alright to me, but once approaching this zone, I would be scared of a bullish sentiment extreme and a rapid 'bubble burst'. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
73
XBTEUR: Update, contracting/expanding triangle and sentimentI think we are seeing a massive sentiment extreme here, indicating a short term bottom in cryptocurrencies accross the board. We needed to see sentiment turn from extremely positive to extremely negative, to generate a new buy signal to resume the trend, so this is expected and good for longs. I'm watching here to add to $BTC longs, since I only hold 10% I entered at 2050 EUR on June 15th, after being in cash for a while. Since then, I traded a few times, but overall, we carry some losing trades, despite making some good gains on a few ones as well. If you're mainly following a trend, there will be periods of loss during consolidations. The good thing, is our portfolio is 'less down' than just holding $BTC. After the consolidation phase ends, we will outperform simply holding $BTC again, which is the goal of my trading as an active manager. That being said, keep an eye out for the next two days here, if we do hold, we can be sure of a return to the 2170-2293 levels again, and possibly, people will turn bullish after breaking the triangle trendline up, by then...to quickly see their trade fail, and then break down, people in despair again, and some shorting again...to then see their trade fail once more after fundamental risks disappear, IF they do resolve favorably. I think it is likely that miners finally give up on their precious ASICBOOST advantage, in lieu of higher $BTC prices, since they are backs against the wall, with a dagger pointed at their throat right now, thanks to the BIP148/UASF countdown. No one wants a split, it doesn't benefit anyone I think. They might try to stall it, meanwhile, and I guess whoever mines the UASF chain, will benefit from it the most after it is the dominant one and other variants are abandoned, so, it does make sense for them to not reveal their stack of cards before August 1st. Cheers, Ivan Labrie, crypto bull, despite mobs with tar, feathers, pitchforks and torches in the streets looking for me.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6
BTCUSD: Wait for the decline to endThe daily $BTCUSD charts shows a 20 day downtrend signal is active, and the target is as low as 1790.02 by July 29th. If we don't hit this level on time, or if we hit it too soon, it might be a terrific chance to add to longs by then. I think this aligns quite well with the timing for fundamental events. It is likely that Segwit2x is supported and Segwit locked in by that date, before the August 1st deadline is reached, thus preventing a chain split and rescuing the Bitcoin bulls, albeit in the intermediate term -before the 3 month period ends, and the hard fork becomes mandatory. If that is the case, I can already anticipate the hard fork busting the bubble, which I think, might see $BTCUSD hit close to $6009 at the very top, before correcting/consolidating for 2 years, a la 2013 peak. This might happen by November, which matches the Segwit2x hard fork schedule, if it comes to pass as described. I'm long $BTC, and looking to add once this downtrend signal fails, or even if we hit the target. It might be wise to hedge your $BTC exposure in the meantime, for instance, being long $ETCBTC, or outright short $BTCUSD (I favor the former over the latter, since it is a possibility that this support holds and the short sellers 'fall short' of their expectations in time).The hedge is optional though, since ultimately, long term charts are bullish for $BTC. Sentiment being extremely negative isn't particularly exciting for shorts in $BTC either, I think this pressure on price will be short lived, so, better wait the reccomended time to add violently to longs. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by IvanLabrie
71
AMZN: Short it here, antitrust law discussion might affect itI think it's a good time to revisit the idea of shorting bubbly large caps, in particular ones with a good fundamental backdrop, to both profit from the decline in them, if it comes to pass, and hedge our risk in other long positions we hold in our portfolio. I'm focusing on $AMZN here, which has the lowest risk from my perspective. For a great breadown on it, check out Tim West's post in related ideas. The weekly upside is exhausted and implies a slow period, either a correction or consolidation for a few more weeks still. The recent run up, on the back of dovish comments from Janet Yellen, give us ample opportunity here. So, in general, I don't advocate shorting stocks, mostly because of sentiment, and the bullish signals and valuations of many companies, but other stocks do justify the concern, to name a few, $NFLX, $AMZN, $AAPL, $GOOG, $MSFT, $NVDA, $WYNN, $WST, $HD, $BBY, $MU...The recent talk of net neutrality, and now antitrust laws, might stifle some volatility in internet related stocks, and specially big behemoths like $AMZN. As a counter argument to this, sentiment remains negative for the most part, which could imply further upside to be tapped soon, according to the AAII sentiment survey data: www.aaii.com The government and the fed can pull the plug though, ultimately, and if $AMZN does trigger a reformulation of the antitrust laws, it is in for a heck of a drop. In the long run, we will have losers, but it's always good to take a valid trade opportunity, as scary as it may seem, specially if it helps balance our portfolio risk, and help bring us down into reality again after being right in most things. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by IvanLabrie
ETCEUR: Monitoring the consolidation hereI came to the realization that ETCEUR potentially offers us more upside than $ETHEUR, once both trigger a new T@M uptrend signal, probably by the end of the month. According to my projections, $ETCEUR could go as high as roughly 210 Euros within 10 weeks, after breaking a previous week high, during the week starting on July 31st. My reccomendation is to hold off from buying until then, specially if it consolidates here, showing that it is being accumulated for a new mode higher. This trade will offer a nice hedge, against our intended $ETHEUR long positions too. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
26
ZEC: Potential bottom of the correctionI'm long $ZECEUR from 225 euros here. I think we might have seen the bottom of the current correction in it, after a 6 week uptrend ended, despite extending gains a bit higher and for longer, it took 6 more weeks from the end of the first forecasted rally, to apparently form a bottom, so, it looks reasonable to assume that the spike in $ZECEUR isn't really significant (specially when pitted against $ZECUSDT for example, or $ZECBTC pairs). I will include those charts below to further illustrate my point. As you know, I trade using a method developed by my mentor, who is a hugely succesful trader and investor, called Tim West. One of the strategies developed by him, lets you determine the trend, and predict the time duration, as well as potential targets for the current trend in the instrument at hand. As fundamentals go, I think $ZEC is interesting to say the least, but, it raises some concerns among investors when you consider that there can be some hidden supply in it, that the market isn't aware of. I like the underperformance lately, relative to $XMR and $DASH, at least in the last month, probably related to fears connected to Alphabay ( themerkle.com ). Overall, I think this can resolve positively, and would induce a positive shock, and push $ZEC up again. I expect positive developments from the EEA, and Ethereum in the next month, there should be no shortage of bullish news for this and the broad crypto space. Keep in mind that sentiment is extremely negative right now, which is a good enough reason to pile in on the long side in our cryptocurrency basket again. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
TEO: Telecom is a longI'm holding longs in $TEO (via $TECO2 in the local stock market) before the big breakout happened, after the news of the Cablevision acquisition surfaced. Cablevision is a private company, leading internet and cable tv service provider. $TEO's acquisition would make it the largest firm in all of these spaces in the country. The chart is constructive for further upside, and I think fundamentals warrant strong growth in the stock. If you examine the monthly timeframe, or even yearly, we have a significant breakout there, so, I expect this to be a huge long term uptrend. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:TEOLong
by IvanLabrie
2
ETCETH: Interesting pattern here$ETCETH implies that $ETC will outperform $ETH to the tune of 200%, give or take. By this week's close, we will trigger a 14 week rally, the daily chart is already in a strong uptrend here, just taking off. I added to my $ETC position, now holding a half position, and waiting to add some more on dips, after making some more progress. I think this is an interesting trade right now, with $ETCEUR's upside potential, and also as a hedge to our $ETH exposure. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
32
GOOG: Go long at market open...I'm initiating a position in $GOOG at market open tomorrow. There was some kind of glitch, and the chart looks really funny, so I decided to post it for posterity. The folks at Zerohedge were gloating, looking at the stocks limit down after this glitch, it's actually just that, and in fact, trades that might have taken place were reversed as far as I know. Either way, price hit support -before charts got messed up- so it's a really reasonable place to enter a 10% long position in $GOOG once more. For reference, this is the way the chart looked on close: Happy Independence Day to all Americans, and remember to go long burgers... www.zerohedge.com Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by IvanLabrie
4
EURUSD: Republishing my forecast and long entry hereIn one of my previous publications, I had indicated that the Euro needed time to break above the monthly downtrend resistance zone. We have spent enough time grinding below resistance now, and the market shows it's ready to shoot higher. A tight stop long is possible here, now, and on dips after today. See my previous publication here: It becomes interesting if this is indeed a trend reversal of the scale I had foreseen back then, since it implies a steady uptrend for months to come in the Euro. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9