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LTCUSDT: Litecoin is accumulated, probably sideways for nowLitecoin has been acting stronger than $BTC, I assume it might grind sideways like practically all coins, until all hell breaks loose by August 1st. Most people are worried, or bearish overall, and in the recent bottoms, we saw traders unload long positions in loss, to quickly realize they had fallen for a bear trap. Until fundamental risks aren't out of the way, it is highly unlikely to see a strong trend in the cryptocurrency space, so, safest bet is to accumulate longs with the smart money in your preferred basket of solid fundamental picks in this market. I'll share my entries with my clients as usual, and we will continue to build our portfolio in preparation for the eventual resumption of the weekly rally in crypto, which might culminate in a blow off top, specially if it hits my weekly targets before the long term timeframe time expires for $BTC and $ETH. The closer we get to 29.54, the safer the long entry in this range...Try to average in gradually, specially when traders become vocally negative, and specially if oversold, on dips. Coins like $LTC and $XRP, have been accumulated for long periods of time, and might be extremely resilient, despite being affected by short term volatility and bear traps/shakeouts during periods of negativity. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclaimer: I'm long $LTC, $BTC, $XRP, among other currencies and tokens.
Long
by IvanLabrie
15
Oil: Might have bottomed here, next week the downtrend expiresAs discussed in the KHL chatroom, it is likely that oil has bottomed here, considering the sentiment extreme and the situation in Saudi Arabia, with Mohammed Bin Salman appointed as the next in line for the throne, replacing his uncle: www.bloomberg.com This is an interesting signal in its own right, maybe signaling a bottom, which Tim West pointed out as logical. Sentiment is very negative, with analysts claiming oil is basically a 'worthless commodity'...do your own due diligence. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19
BTCUSD: UpdateI think we will see a sideways range in $BTCUSD, as anticipated in my last publication. Having bought a position very close to the recent correction bottom, I can comfortably wait it out until the weekly trends are ready to rally again. The timing for this event interestingly approaches August 1st, so, it makes me think the market will grind sideways for longer. There are two targets I came up with, after processing information from weekly and daily charts, which indicate that we can hit prices between 4000 and 6000, so, it won't surprise me to see prices rally rapidly, once fundamental risks are out of the way. I aim to build a 20% position in $BTC by then. Longer term charts imply a rally is likely all year, which is even more interesting, since the SEGWIT2MB date for a hard fork would be by the end of the year, this could be a cause for a correction or consolidation, cooling off after a 2 year rally. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8
XRPUSDT: Uptrend still active in the long termWe have been accumulating $XRP positions lately, and now awaiting the breakout by the 26th, courtesy of potential announcements that will take place during the European Money 20-20 conference, and/or the interledger meetup in Geneva on the same day. Here are some links: www.meetup.com www.xrpchat.com Potential upside is tremendous, as derived from the T@M signal on chart. I expect the rally to rapidly progress after the 26th. Best of luck if joining me and my clients on this trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
153
TWTR: Shot in the dark...Maybe this time is different. I'm back in the $TWTR long trade, with a small 2.95% stake in it. I think there is a chance to start a rally from here, after the recent daily downtrend time runs out tomorrow. While above the levels in yellow, we could trigger a monthly uptrend, at any time, so, it is a good idea in my opinion to enter prematurely, and see if we gain traction. Perhaps stories about acquisition finally surface, and this time, we do hit our top targets succesfully. Potential monthly upside shown by the red dashed lines on chart, by year end. Now that even my president uses $TWTR for policy announcements, maybe things become more positive for the company. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by IvanLabrie
10
Mexican Peso: Weekly uptrend triggered, above resistanceThe Mexican Peso is now trading above the US Presidential Election key resistance level. Price could soar from here, we can enter longs and add on dips, or average in during a few days to a month. Returns are over 10% at the very least, in the coming 2-3 months. Negativity against the Peso kept many traders skeptical of this rally, all the way up. This is usually the case with any trending market. It's key to identify which are trending to ride significant moves. We can find very low risk entries using the T@M methodology created by my mentor, Tim West. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
DXY: Logical bottoming area according to KHL and T@MThe Time at mode analysis of the dollar shows an exhausted downtrend in the weekly, hitting a long term uptrend support, paired with extreme pessimism according to RgMov, which is a trend and sentiment analysis proprietary indicator that we use to assist us in our trading decision making. I think the dollar can bottom here, and this could prove to be bullish for US equities. Interestingly, I see gold, oil and other commodities like corn as potentially interesting on the long side too. I mostly use gold to hedge my risk on trades, so I don't mind buying it when the chart gives an opportunity, even if I lose, since it means that my risk on trades will cover that loss more than handsomely. This chart was born out of a discussion with @zhipengcfel in the KHL chatroom. Feel free to stop by or contact me if interested in the methodology that we use, which was created by my mentor, @timwest. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
4
ETHBTC: Chillax, once more...I'm flat and monitoring the action in $ETHBTC. I think we need to get some kind of sentiment reset to be able to buy it again. In general, I don't advocate shorts in cryptocurrencies, it is a lot more productive to trade the long side only. There are some fundamental risks at play, which would be interesting to see Vitalik Buterin and friends iron out succesfully. For now, I remain skeptical, and the market's exhuberance doesn't do much to calm my anxiety. I will let it form a new buy signal and follow the developments closely to buy back when viable. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
15
XBTEUR: Sideways consolidationPeak sentiment helped us find the top a few times. The last one was a nice bear market in BTC for a few days. I covered my shorts, and bought part of my BTC position (10% of net worth). I aim to have a maximum of 25%, after we get all the scaling news out of the way, and once we have a new weekly uptrend signal. For now, we are under pressure, and we might see a volatile sideways range ensue. The daily chart shows a potential uptrend starting, which points to a sharp 10 day advance, today being day #1, which could top and reverse back down to support, be it at the starting point of the move like the previous 9 day rally, or maybe to the 2170 mark. I noticed people were starting to become negative a day ago, when we were hitting support, and traders who were complaining about being in cash, and even worse shorting, started to complain about NOT being in a short anymore, and missing this action. This is typical behavior at turning points. The thing is that sentiment is rapidly switching, turning 180 degrees over the course of 2 weeks...Interesting to say the least. Combine the crowd behavior, with the fundamental information available to us from multiple sources and we can paint a vivid picture of what's going on, and what we can expect from this or any market. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. ps: this is the signal I sent to my clients to long: imgur.com "Let's try buying a 10% long in BTC now. We will add back to longs gradually."
Long
by IvanLabrie
34
XBTEUR: To the gamblers, latecomers, and bubble chasersI think it's a good time to reevaluate divesting from crypto once again. We have considerable risks, yet no one even bothers thinking about them. Anyone aware of fundamentals knows that we can see some nasty scenarios in the coming weeks and months. I would reccomend taking a break from crypto, and for instance, holding only 25% of your capital in it, be it in the shape of some cryptocurrency or cash at exchanges. The former induces risk from potential volatility to come, the latter, from 3rd party risks. Either way, it is a risky proposition, so however you look at it, try to use reason, and not emotions to decide how to protect your wealth. Upside vs downside risk favors being in cash, or even short. Fundamental risks, and sentiment extreme in BTC, and the broad crypto markets make me think the technical setup is likely to materialize, and that we can get a correction any time soon. Perhaps after June 16th, since that is the earlierst known date where we might encounter 'scaling risks'. After August 1st, some risky scenarios might ensue, some of which could cause difficulties to exchange operators, and all of which can cause this market's value to decrease significantly. The technical chart called for a rally to 3000 euros, by the end of Dec 2017, or sooner. In this case, I could assume that we have two main scenarios going forward: #1: The time duration of the rally is valid, and we get continued upside. This doesn't imply a correction won't happen. The market can take many detours before finally topping by year end. Sentiment and shorter term signals would be our guide, to navigate trends while risk/reward is positive in the short term and sentiment still negative or neutral. Sentiment is extremely bullish now, which is a contrarian signal and a cause for concern for any astute investor. In this positive scenario, we get a healthy correction during this time and going into August events, and maybe lasting for a while longer until sentiment resets, everyone panics and we bottom in the weeky timeframe again. Then we launch into a rally for the duration of the year again. #2: This was IT, the crypto bubble peaked, we get a nasty 2 year+ correction or consolidation akin to 2013 to 2015. If this is the case, which I fear might be, we might never hit the 3000 euro mark or we hit now before the time expires for the long term rally. This could easily form a top any time soon, and the fundamental events to come would exacerbate the selloff causing the newcomers to lose all their money, longs to get margin called, maybe some exchanges to go bust, and then get a continuous chain of negative events, and increasingly negative sentiment...some possible events include problems after the scaling solutions are implemented in BTC, ETH facing technical design problems that cause the rally in it to peak and massively decline back to monthly support at 11 eur after PoS gets delayed again, China to regulate ICOs, maybe harsher regulations take place broadly accross crypto markets globally, etc. People should be wiser investors, and not gamblers who chase momentum. This never ends well, or at least is not a wise investment strategy. The insanity in sentiment has made people very critical of my work, I get ridiculed, insulted, mocked often. When all is said and done, I might be proven right, to the permabulls dismay. Disclaimer: I think BTC and cryptocurrencies are of tremendous utility in the world, and a new asset class in their own right. I would like to maintain 25% exposure to this market at all times, but it's wise to diversify into 3 other asset classes to store and grow your wealth. (local and foreign stocks, bonds/gold/silver, cash, real world businesses/passive income sources). Specially after a huge win in one market, pour the gains into equalizing your exposure in other fields.
Education
by IvanLabrie
80
DASHUSD: Potential upside is significant stillThis is my updated analysis for $DASH, seems like we have a new uptrend signal kicking off today. The action is very explosive and suggests immediate upside. The weekly targets are potentially 2, $280.3 and $646.28. The quarterly chart implies that upside to $757 is possible too. I am long $DASH, and will look to ride this trend as best as possible while it lasts. The fundamentals of many altcoins present opportunities, specially when paired against a $BTC short, so, it is a good time to trade the BTC ratio pairs. Comparing $BTC's current scaling and sentiment exhuberance risks, with other offerings in this space risks, which are better in your opinion? Comment below. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
14
XBTEUR: Top didn't last long...China rescued bullsIn my previous chart I had determined that Bitcoin was due for a correction, due to sentiment and a potential weekly top signal. What I didn't account for was the impact of unknown news at the time, of the timely addition of ETH to the big three chinese exchanges (Huobi, Btcchina, Okcoin) and also, a few days later, the normalization of Bitcoin withdrawals from these sites. This together with the current japanese and korean craze, triggered a failure of the forming distribution, and created a bullish signal (which I missed). Prices have continued to progress higher but now we approach the forecasted time and pice targets for this rally. I wonder if we do get a correction after this since people believe Bitcoin can rise forever, pretty much, and are openly mocking sellers. There is a potential fudstorm coming, as people in this biz would call it, associated to the scaling debate, that is bound to intensify. Since I have given up on shorting, it is prone to correct, which would frustrate me and other bears who got margin called recently (I simply got out of shorts unharmed, but some big players got margin called at okcoin lately, in the order of 13 million dollars+). Seeing a new daily low, specially after this rally time and price are exhausted, would potentially be a valid short signal to take with a tight stop above the highest high. Try not to risk more than 1%. I would even go as far as to risk only very, very small, like say 0.1-0.3% but it's up to you. Once we get the actual top, and after June's monthly close, we can determine two levels to potentially cover and buy back into long positions, ideally by July 31st or later. There is a date set for Segwit activation, by August 1st, which interestingly coincides with the time required to absorb the supply after the end of the last weekly 'Time @ mode' uptrend signal expired, so this would give us extra reassurance to go long by then if conditions are ripe for it (ideally paired with extreme bearish sentiment, which could come in anticipation of all the risks the scaling solutions present). This is a good article for people unaware of potential risks that could become a concern, once investors remove their bullish blinders (if they ever do): medium.com Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
59
Gold: Potential daily/weekly/monthly rallyGold is now rallying sharply and above the mode of these 3 timeframes, already triggered a daily rally, will confirm a weekly uptrend on close this week, and can trigger a monthly uptrend next month. I'm holding physical and paper positions, and looking to add periodically when viable. This trade is meant as both a hedge for my equity positions, and also a take profit from cryptocurrencies after massive gains this year. Best of luck if following this idea and my previous gold long reccomendations. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
14
XBTEUR: Long term forecast updateI have corrected my weekly chart for $XBTEUR, since I had made a small mistake on the intermediate term forecast. The weekly chart shows we can rally for one more week here, before getting a consolidation or correction, and the target for it matches the long term top target for this pair. There is a catch, if we convert the Bitstamp long term target, from USD to EUR, we get roughly to 3000 Euros for the top, so, I am inclined to aim for this lofty target in this pair as well. I will continue to hold BTC, and add if we get a correction in a month or so. My goal is to maximize my exposure to BTC when it counts, which is, right at the end of a correction or consolidation phase. So far, my timing using Tim West's proprietary trend analysis and trading methodology has been impeccable, so I expect it to continue to work until this trend tops. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
22
AUDUSD: Potentially breaking above the monthly resistance soon$AUDUSD appears to be about to rally for the intermediate to long term, judging by how the pair has been acting lately, as well as how fundamentals are setting up. With oil in a strong advance, commodities are potentially rallying higher, which would boost currencies like the Aussie dollar. The technical chart here shows the pair is coming up after being heavily oversold and very washed out, with shorts covering, helping bulls lift off. Weekly and monthly charts show good potential, with a monthly uptrend signal pending confirmation as a potential development, as well as a weekly buy signal from Tim West's proprietary indicators. Best of luck if trading it, and ideally, trade the long side with me. Cheers, Ivan Labrie. Disclaimer: I am long $AUDUSD.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
ETHEUR: Long term view, chart of all chartsThis is how the Ethereum chart looks, plotted against the Euro using Kraken data. It has been the most reliable instrument to perform analysis on this pair, together with $ETHBTC from the Poloniex feed. Currently, we are tracing a daily, weekly and monthly uptrend. Periodically, smaller timeframes might be in a consolidation or retracement phase, to then rejoin the big picture trend in the monthly. Right now, we can anticipate higher prices all month, courtesy of the daily and weekly signals depicted in yellow and turquoise. This weekend is loaded with fundamental events that can further boost this rally, so I think it is logical to see $ETHEUR hit the daily and weekly top target zones in time or even earlier than expected. After the time expires for these signals, we could commence a consolidation phase, which can take a myriad of shapes, and isn't predictable yet, other than on a time duration basis. Normally, the market will absorb supply from profit taking, which takes a proportional amount of time to the rally itself, so it is logical to observe what Tim West has noted in his 'Time at Mode' proprietary method. So far, this methodology has served me well, and I would be glad to share the benefits of it with people interested in trading these powerful trends. Tim is working on new material currently, you can pm me or him to learn more about it. Now, on to the trading reccomendation aspect, if you're long, consider average volatility to determine your position sizing. During a trend, it is reccomended to gain exposure, and while consolidating, trimming it back down, or outright taking profits. Don't risk more than a 10% drawdown on a worst case scenario basis if trading long term, it will be hard to recover otherwise. Keep your coins safe in hardware wallets like the Trezor or Ledger nano, and make sure you do your due diligence when it comes to cybersecurity, and exposure to centralized exchange risk and margin trading. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Education
by IvanLabrie
34
ETHBTC: Ethereum is in an uptrend in the intermediate term$ETHBTC shows a strong uptrend in place, with a good chance of accelerating after this weekend, which is charged with news, as the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance group releases a demo of the technology they have been working on, and a series of important events take place during next week and during June. If we hold up here, and just close here or higher, the weekly will confirm a new uptrend signal, with a considerable target, which I have labeled on chart here. At the same time, we have a monthly uptrend currently active, which indicates two targets as logical and highly likely to be attained, 0.14 something and around 0.25 BTC, in the ratio chart here. Refer to my other $ETHEUR posts for the fiat targets and analysis. Although the chart is slightly different, strong trending moves in $ETHEUR will correlate with the $ETHBTC ratio going up for the most part. Good luck if already long, if not, buy into it during a few days, price shouldn't drop below 0.0359 technically speaking, and any retest of the zone below would warrant a buy, but hopefully, it doesn't happen and it just trends up from here onwards. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10
XBTEUR: Update and potential weekly targetIn this chart I examine the trend since $XBTEUR bottomed after the Bitfinex hack induced correction. The weekly chart reveals an uptrend time and price target that can guide us in the coming weeks. It appears like we can reach a peak in sentiment and consolidate or get a correction after we reach this zone in the next 2 weeks. The daily chart will guide us in the next few days, keep an eye on sentiment and news stories related to $BTC. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclaimer: I'm holding longs in $BTC among other cryptocurrencies.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10