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GOOGL: Rich valuation, long term uptrend time ran outI'm flat GOOGL, but seeing the valuation up here makes you wonder: How long can this momentum last? There was a long term 6-month timeframe signal that expired recently, and we now have a daily uptrend that lasts until March 22nd, with a potential target at 884 give or take. I would find it hard to short this, but I would definitely not want to own this stock up here. Some risks include the possibility that the long term uptrend signal expiration drags price back down to the mode (a lower probability event), or that after the daily time at mode signal time and price target is met, price falls back down to support, which is likely after the end of Q1. Wikileaks recently published information that puts many tech giants in the spotlight, as part of a nasty violation of privacy, and surveillance (and recklesness) worthy of an Orwellian police state...with far reaching implications, like, for instance completely nullifying 'digital evidence' in any court case. This makes me wonder: will this affect the companies involved? or will people continue to not care about their rights and security? Any agent could hide their identity, while perpetrating attacks over the internet, if they use the CIA toolset. Everything connected to the internet, is at risk of being tapped. Will this boost Bitcoin and Ethereum further? Curious to see what happens next. Let's see how this evolves... Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by IvanLabrie
1
BTCUSD: FuturologyThis is another very prophetic post, like my ETHBTC one. I think that we will get an approval by the SEC, but, since the ETF won't bring money into Bitcoin right away, price will fall back to weekly support at 1139 give or take. Bottoming there, while big players accumulate positions, until the market is ready to trend up vigorously again. The market is likely to frustrate the most people, so, I think first, it'll spook the short sellers by going up after the news, to then fall and stop out all longs, right before bottoming for some time. My game plan, I'm holding my positions for 1 year at least, so, I'll trade around them using margin. My preferred vehicle to hedge the BTC decline is ETHXBT longs. I'll be looking to accumulate a hefty ETHBTC long position, in the order of 30%, when we have a decent enough retracement in it. It's close to weekly support, and in a weekly uptrend, with potential for a monthly rally after May, which would align with this prediction taking place, if ETHEUR rallies or doesn't fall, while BTC falls or doesn't rally as much. Reccomendations: If conservative, sell down from 50% to 20% account long in BTCUSD and do nothing. Sell also down from 50% to 20% account in ETHEUR and do nothing. Then add back on dips or if they keep trending up proving you wrong. If more brave, follow my game plan. Don't sell but hedge the decline with ETHBTC longs when safe. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8
USOIL: 9 week downtrend signal, watch for support belowOil has started a weekly downtrend, which we accurately predicted, monitoring the positioning, sentiment and the spreads in oil against other instruments (energy sector, Canadian dollar, etc). I think we can hold our position for some time, we're short from 53.25. Since we already hit the first 'clone' of the weekly mode range, we could stall here. I'm monitoring it, since we have a few fundamental key levels below price. If these levels don't hold as support, the market will test the next levels below, over and over until it is bid, after finding a floor at levels where OPEC might feel compelled to intervene again. I'm watching both the technicals, and the CoT report data, to determine where to exit the shorts. Good luck if already in, if not, better stand aside and wait to either go long at support, or simply do nothing until oil bottoms again. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILShort
by IvanLabrie
8
ETHXBT: Just a predictionI can make an informed guess on how long it will take for ETHXBT to surpass Bitcoin in performance dramatically. The monthly chart indicates we could expect a major breakout only after May, or as a worst case scenario, July. There are two possible top targets, and an estimated time duration of the rally as well. The targets are 0.095937 and 0.228555, with a rally that could last until February, 2018. I'm going to hold my positions as long term trades, and I'll continue to trade around them with margin, to make my holds risk free, and only risk part of my profit from holding the trades open all this time. I'd reccomend keeping a 50/50% weight with BTC, and perhaps if you want, investing small in some ICOs. or other alts along the way, but only with 1-5% positions at best. Focus on this and BTC, since the charts and fundamentals favor continued growth in them. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
AUDUSD: A traders' marketThe key levels on chart give an excellent idea of what's going on in $AUDUSD. My bias is the long side, so I'm buying each chance I get, on dips against support with tight stops. It's fairly easy to close in profit in a day or two most of the time. Longer term, we could be building a rally of monthly scale, but we need time to break above the resistance zone here. While buyers defend the lows, we're safe and can join them after any adverse excursion, but book partial profits each time until we really move. I'd reccomend using no stops, but sizing trades based on average true range values. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
ETHBTC: Add on dipsWe're long already, after trying to capture the bottom of this pullback and suffering a slight drawdown (our average buy is around 0.01140). The trend seems to be turning up in this chart, and it presented us with a good opportunity to hedge half of our long BTC position at least. After today's close, we could add to it on dips, so, keep an eye on it and be ready to buy ETH with BTC. I reccomend using margin, but just swapping part of your BTC for ETH is ok. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
10 Year T-Note Futures: Uptrend in motionWe have a strong uptrend signal in treasury notes and potential for a big upside move. I'm currently long $TMF, as my proxy for this move, since $TLT was lower than 10 Year Note futures, offering a more interesting risk/reward (as per Tim West's posts). Right now, I think the move to the upside is confirmed, so, if you're not in, you could look into buying either instrument on dips. Stop losses can be tight, but you're better off without one, and simply adjusting size based on volatility (1-3 times the daily ATR -11 periods- for your 'stop' distance, and thus size to fit your risk criteria). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZNH2017Long
by IvanLabrie
BTCUSD: Monitoring developments going into MarchThis is the Bitfinex chart. I'm currently using this one, due to having the highest liquidity of all exchanges. It seems like we have reached the last day of the recent daily uptrend signal we had in our charts, so we can expect a decline back to the uptrend mode, if the market is due for a breather to resume the long term rally. If BTC doesn't fall under either the uptrend speed line support, or any of the support levels on chart, we could aim to add to longs, and cover our ETHBTC longs perhaps, although I think Ethereum will simply outperform BTC, if it continues to rally. We'll have to see how things develop until March events are out of the way. Keep these levels in mind and see how the market reacts to them to act. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8
XAUUSD: Daily uptrend updateGold is rallying after breaking out of the strongest local resistance level (red box). There is a new uptrend continuation signal that got triggered yesterday, and I reentered longs on the breakout. Currently in profit, and looking to trail stops and add if viable. Keep an eye on the developments from here onwards, it becomes extremely interesting the higher we go. If you own physical gold, do pay attention now, since we approach a huge 'make or break' zone in the long term charts. The level outlined by the orange line here represents the strongest and most significant resistance in Gold, which if breached could signal a resumption of the long term advance in the yellow metal. See related ideas for more information. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
XAUUSD: Quarterly 'Time at Mode' decline can failI'm bullish for the most part, but we have risk in this zone. If we do break higher on close, and stay there, we could see a massive short squeeze rally in gold and silver. In the case of gold here, the target would be 1714.28, initially, but could evolve into a resumption of the long term advance in gold, so, I'd reccomend simply owning some physical gold, on top of any investments in miners, or funds like CEF and the like. These could be a good addition to any portfolio under the right circumstances, and a daily timeframe entry setup. We have to monitor the quarterly close here, which could give us further clues, about the direction of the trend. We could be seeing a reversal of the decline since the 2011 top, so, let's keep an eye on it and remain unbiased in our analysis, and acts. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
3
SPX: Monthly 'Time at Mode' analysisThe monthly 'Time at Mode' analysis of S&P500 -0.12% suggests we can top at just shy of the analysts' forecast for end of year closing price. This which would frustrate them to no end, and possibly make them give up and turn bearish , downgrade stocks/reduce the forecast target price, or even turn 100% bearish . That would give us the right elements for a bottom once again, at the end of this potential correction, after hitting our current target price, eventually triggering a new uptrend signal and forecast. If we do correct, and then hold the support as outlined on chart, we could have the scenario on chart, extending the upside to over 2700 by Quite a few assumptions involved, for now, but logical I'd say. The next couple months will confirm my thought process here, which is purely technical, but also based on Tim West's analysis and yearly forecast, which you can read in the related ideas section. Tim always has some amazing insights on the market. My game plan would involve shorting the market against my individual stock holdings, as my 'hedge', aiming to profit from market outperformance mostly in that case. And covering shorts on a retest of support. After February's close we will obtain more information about potential targets to validate the bullish momentum , which would aid us in finding the market top. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500
by IvanLabrie
1
TSLA: Long term uptrend in motionI still think $TSLA will violently outperform the market, since we triggered a quarterly uptrend signal recently, and I expect it to rally to 3040, in the long term, but, right now we could form a sideways range, as the smart money accumulates buys, before going for the next batch of short squeezes. Shorts have been extremely stubborn in $TSLA, and continue to cling to their bearish fundamental views, despite being massively in the red. The short interest is 26%, and the days to cover, roughly 8-9 based on the average volume . TSLA 1.22% can still rally rapidly to 375, but, it'd be good to be careful and await further signals to add, like, seeing how earnings affect $TSLA in the coming months. In the long term, the stock has potential upside to 3040. Cheers, Ivan Labrie
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
16
AUDUSD: Update - Consolidating here will give us continuationIf AUDUSD is to hold here, and eventually break out, and cross the overhead resistance, we can see a massive rally take off, which you definitely don't want to miss. If you missed my previous entries, you may go long here, risking a drop under 0.7811. Keep risk to 0.5-1%. This is a swing trade setup. If you want, additionally, or perhaps if more conservative, you may use our monthly setup stop loss: 0.75248. Upside is significant, so don't miss this opportunity! Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
EURUSD: Potential bottom hereI'm hedging my USD longs with a long Euro trade here. I don't disclose the specific entry and stop loss here, I'll reserve that for my clients for now, but you can get an idea of what to expect. It might turn into a H&S type bottom signal if we rally back to the neck line. It'll be interesting to see, and it's also a good hedge against equity positions, not only USD longs. Tim West has outlined potential reasons for a turn in the dollar, in the KHL chatroom and his USDCAD short idea post, so make sure to check those out. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
VLKAY: 35% upside in the stock$VLKAY has triggered a monthly breakout from a massive accumulation base, and after a good pullback into earnings support, flashed a buy signal for us, in the monthly, weekly and daily timeframes. Such an opportunity is not to be missed! Let's enter longs at market open gradually over 3 days, aiming to build a 14% position. The stop loss orders are not required, since we could manage risk with options in the long term. For now, entering the stocks position is more important, and the odds of holding this support are very high, due to both technical as well as fundamental variables. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
VLong
by IvanLabrie