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GBPUSD: Waiting and watching closelyGBPUSD is really interesting here, with potential upside, together with the dollar, if Brexit ends up being a positive in the long term. It has a lot of shock value, and I'd like to play it like a contrarian once viable. Right now, I think we can have a repeat of the 2009 bottom, and a big sideways range, but first we could see a rapid short squeeze rally, and a retest of the Brexit day range, or even the top of that day's range. I'm looking to go long on dips, for the most part, and perhaps look to short EURGBP when viable, or long GBPCHF. If we do get this scenario, we could see a massive rally shortly after the Brexit votes are out of the way. Lots of potential volatility revolving around French elections and other developments in Europe as well, so I'm watching with keen interest. The daily chart has a downtrend and two potential targets, Range Movement is in a strong downtrend, but also suggests sentiment is at an extreme, in speculative bearishness, so, we could see a rapid squeeze of the shorts soon. I'm vigilant, and monitoring the daily developments to fade the extremes. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
USOIL: Hold longs, long term uptrend signal triggeredThe oil uptrend signal finally triggered here, after OPEC agreed to cut production accross the board today. As more details come out, we might see some kind of pullback, or not, but it's clear we have to hold our long positions for as long as possible. I'm trading the swings in the short term using $UCO, and aiming to capture the longer term trend with my $OXY and $TSLA holdings, as well as the CFD/Futures positions. Those might need to be managed more actively, taking profits, reentering, adding, trailing stops, due to short term volatility, rollovers, etc., but for now, I'm holding. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
OSUR: More long term picksThis one is one of Tim West's findings. After exhaustive technical analysis on my part, I noticed we had a great chance to enter right at the start of a quarterly rally in the stock, so I took the plunge recently, ahead of earnings, at 8.87. I reduced my position to 3%, down from 13% to book some profit and in case we get a dip to add back to longs. I did swap some of it for other positions, to improve my portfolio, so, it's all good. Naturally, Tim's stock picking prowess once again shined here. The chart here is really constructive, and you could jump in here, on any setback, or even on a breakout of the earning day high perhaps. I'd reccomend entering a position gradually, if you're interested in riding the long term advance to $24. Buy each day for 2 weeks to a month, until you complete your desired exposure to the stock. Size is up to you and your preferred risk parameters. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:OSURLong
by IvanLabrie
1
XBTEUR: Slightly different setupXBTEUR has a similar setup to BTCCNY, but the chart differs in how accumulation and distribution patterns formed. Right now, there's an active daily uptrend signal pointing to 1067 euros, but it's likely going to fail. The market also built a potential new uptrend mode up here, a re-accumulation level, which could trigger a rally from here, or alternatively an uptrend failure and a brief pullback to support below. We'll need to monitor this and btccny, and check the uptrend speed lines on each, as well as the reaction to scheduled fundamental events, by March 1st, and 11th. See the chart annotations for more information. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
7
USDCAD: With oil rising...I think we can get a rapid selloff in USDCAD, given how volatile it is. I entered shorts on Friday with tight stops, and looking to add at market open. It also serves as a hedge against my other positions, short SEK and JPY. My currency positioning is as follows: long USD, AUD, CAD, short SEK and JPY. Fundamentals might create interesting opportunities, both long and short in majors, so I'm open to hedging my profitable trades and keeping balanced positions between currencies. (USDSEK and EURSEK are in good profits now for instance) I'm open to shorting oil against this position additionally, but not right now, when it's expanding the daily range shooting up. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
ETHEUR: Long term uptrend updateIn my previous chart, in related ideas, I had outlined a set of conditionals that had to pan out for confirmation of further upside in ETH. For now, we're seeing a myriad of bullish signals, and most of the different conditions are becoming true. If we manage to hit 13.2332 during February, we will have full confirmation of a monthly advance that can take us up by over 2000%, or even 2700% eventually. I'm holding longs from the 8.23usd mark, and I recently added, by taking profits from part of my 80% account Bitcoin long at 0.01102: I think we can hit the DAO hack key level soon, which would have us hit the required bullish target to trigger the monthly advance signal. There's also a 3-day timeframe bullish signal which suggests we can hit over 17 euros soon, so, I think all pieces align for this move to happen now. Good luck if you're long with me. If you want to receive more specific alerts and signals, send me a pm. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
16
BTCCNY: Daily update - Uptrend speed line support nearbyBTCCNY is in an uptrend in multiple timeframes, from the 2-month timeframe, down to the weekly. The daily recently encountered supply after retesting the resistance from the initial PBOC induced selloff. Now, it is absorbing the sellers' orders down here, and it could resume the move up, or simply remain choppy until the end of the month. A good strategy will be to buy when bearish momentum slows down, on any significant setback, and look to book profits retesting overhead resistance levels. Naturally, I'm reserving the exact entries, timing, and risk management to my signals clients, but you can get an idea of what to expect here. If the uptrend speed line (white) holds, we could see a sharp advance here, and a retest and potential breakout of resistance at 7048. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
2
DXY: Long term analysisIn this chart we can see the two main uptrends in the dollar, one from a 6-month timeframe setup, and the one in the 2-month timeframe which recently got confirmed surrounding the US Presidential election. The long term one, has time to evolve until well into 2020, and the one in the intermediate term could last until May-June 2018. Target for the first uptrend signal was hit, but it could extend to twice the range without much problem, and the 2m signal offers two targets, one that was almost hit and lies right above a strong low volume resistance zone, and two potential top targets that sit against 2m and 6m resistance, and close to twice the long term chart's target range. If we don't fail the recent intermediate term advance, and hit the target, and don't rebound instantly, or even worse, fail here and simply drop lower without hitting it in time, we can expect the dollar to rally for a good while, potentially hitting the most optimistic targets, in the long term. What I'd like to see, is that, since I'm long, and would be one in a life time risk/reward trade for me. If this fails, which is what fundamentals could suggest, according to my mentor, Tim West, then I'd have to change my mind and be flexible to trade against the trend. A failure in the 2m signal would be catastrophic, and would involve some kind of massive correction in equities probably, as the 'Trump trade' unwinds, and carry trades unwind. I'd rather not see that for now. As a precaution, I'm switching to a long only stance in metals, the Euro and bonds, whenever possible, taking short term swing trades to catch the recovery after any washed out, oversold declines. This strategy could coexist with maintainig a long only bias in my preferred USD pairs: $USDSEK, $USDGBP, $USDNOK, $USDMXN and my long equities portfolio. I did introduce some shorts too, so I'm open to trade both sides, based on valuation and different opportunities that might arise from changing fundamentals and news stories in the short and intermediate term. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
3
F: Ford can trigger a weekly uptrend next weekLet's enter longs here at market open. A good option is to go long stocks. A 19% account position would be a good starting point, you can build this position during 3-5 days. Or you can simply long calls at the money for 1 month to use up less margin. You can buy the equivalent of a 20% account position, for only 5% of the cost. I'd reccomend the 12.00 strike, March 17th call options. That's rather economic right now, but you would be in a risky position if price doesn't hit the weekly uptrend trigger level at 12.86 quickly. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:FLong
by IvanLabrie
AUDUSD: Potential monthly uptrend spottedMaybe AUDUSD can rally even while DXY is moving up...I think it's possible that Trump's border wall could boost iron ore prices indirectly, thus giving AUDUSD the push it needs to detach from the now 11 month mode at 0.75248. If we don't retest this level during February, we could expect a sharp rally towards 0.82787 in the long term. Sentiment is extremely negative for AUDUSD, which doesn't make any sense, given the relative strength in this pair, and the current daily uptrend, as well as the bullish signals in multiple timeframes, copper's strength, the relentless iron/steel rally, and Australia's fundamentals, both regarding GDP growth, as well as rate differential against other currencies, weighing in political risk, and also demographics. It's a bit hard to justify shorting it, so, let's try going long once more. The daily offers a tight stop at 0.75827, but if you want, you can just use the monthly stop at 0.75248 for now. Good luck, Ivan Labrie. PS: As a reminder, I'll attach the monthly copper chart, I think the lag in AUD against iron ore and copper can resolve in a violent breakout in this currency pair, effectively closing the spread with these commodities they export.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
USDJPY: Better to leave it alone until the 24thUSDJPY daily charts indicate we're temporarily in a downtrend, and the weekly chart suggests it's wise to wait for bearish momentum to slow down in this time scale, before attempting to go long. Weekly and monthly trends show an uptrend, according to the RgMov indicator, and have good potential, once the downside is exhausted. If we don't hit 109.536 by Feb 24th, we could assume the bears have lost steam, and buyers will be taking control once again. I'll update this chart with future developments. For now, better buy TLT, or some other bond proxy, perhaps even short $USDJPY, but it's simply safer to leave it be, and wait to buy at the bottom. Sometimes, doing nothing is the best thing to do... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
2
PBF: Excellent 'Time at Mode' signalsPBF is tracing a downtrend, sadly, since it didn't bottom at the recent low...I had to take a loss on my recent entries, and I'll wait for it to hit the lower targets to reenter. My idea is perhaps to short put options at the target, and either get assigned, or get profit from the premium on expiry. Either way, it's a great trade if we take the long side. Fundamentals are good, and this is a good addition to any portfolio, we just need to time a good entry here and let it ride. The yield is worth it. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:PBFLong
by IvanLabrie
2
USDSEK: Last chance to go longUSDSEK has traced a sharp decline, correcting the recent breakout. Now it appears to have bottomed against a low volume support level, so we can start to go long here. You can buy gradually over 5 days, or risk buying when price breaks above a previous day high, with stop at the lowest low here. If we happen to break down and move past 8.5479, I would be tempted to assume that the long term dollar uptrend is failing, and we can expect a massive selloff in the dollar accross the board. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
BTCCNY: Daily uptrend intactBTC has hit the bottom of the linear regression trend, from the Bitfinex hack to the top before the PBOC news, and we can clearly see that the support held, and we moved back up for now. I wanted to see no new low after my last publication, and it already happened. The sellers indeed got trapped, and the downtrend that started on 1-11 failed. Once we see prices tread above today's high, we'll probably see a strong short squeeze rally. Longer term, I'd like to see a consolidation, proving investors are accumulating positions in this zone once again, and that we're not seeing a repeat of the 2013 top (dynamics are completely different). What I envision happening would be a repeat of the consolidation after the sharp fall that followed the initially rally that retested $500 for the first time after Bitcoin bottomed. Alternatively, we could see a shorter consolidation, before shooting up again. The exact timing doesn't have to much, since we already triggered a continuation of the initial uptrend that lead to the 2013 high, which wasn't the case in the period I reference. So, don't read too much into this, we need to see how it evolves from here, but if we stay above 5667 and march higher gradually, we'll surely see WAY higher prices in the future. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
32
XAUUSD: Gold broke the weekly downtrend speed line!Gold is acting quite bullish in the daily and weekly now, and we have different signals in higher timeframes as well. Potential upside is significant, but we need to see a few things happen next. The most immediate one is breaking above the 1241.65 resistance, and holding there. After we do that, we'd need to go up to 1289.80 and test that level, break it and hold above it. That could initiate a massive uptrend, with upside over 1800 in the long term. That could in turn, evolve into a continuation of the long term advance in gold, which would have massive upside in the cards for us. I'm holding speculative longs with a tight stop, and looking to get confirmation of higher timeframe signals. I'm long miners, CFDs and CEF. If and when we confirm the long term rally, we could be well positioned. But we'll also be ready and aware of what to look out for, to rule out the rally, and turn bearish on gold if needed. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
6