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Timeatmode

USDJPY: Inside daysThe market seems to be awaiting news, since we have two days in a row, contained by a previous day's true range. This has only happened 12 times since the top in 2015, so you can tell that the market awaits major news to decide on direction, or resume the pace it had. Price action until we break out of this range might be erratic, so don't caught up trying to navigate the murky intraday noise waters and focus on the big picture here. Just a heads up. Check the news calendar, and then trade. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
9
TWTR: Weekly uptrend still viable, target is 29.13Expanding the analysis, this is what I'm looking at in TWTR right now. We're already in the long, and adding a bit more next week. It's possible that TWTR confirms a weekly 'Time at Mode' uptrend signal, which would propel it (probably due to acquisition talks again) to the target on chart. The cue is when we see price hit 20.01 during this week, probably after earnings, or some news regarding bids. I'd reccomend either buying calls out of the money, or selling puts at the money, or trading bull call spreads, or owning stock, but be careful with the amount you buy (risk is $3,21 per share bought, stop losses aren't viable). You can buy puts to protect your downside here, or short calls once we go higher from here as well, but not for now. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by IvanLabrie
GBPUSD: Long term decline analysisThis is the long term outlook for GBPUSD, we can see that the signal here has been working well, and although I had initially identified it as a quarterly signal, it belongs to a higher timeframe to correctly portray the activity in it according to the 'Time at mode' methodology. For now, we'd have to wait for this year to end to judge the future shorter term targets to validate the bearish momentum, but we can already keep the target in mind, to flip long after covering any short we have once hit, or if the time expires, or, to identify long term resistance levels to short against on rallies. The daily chart tells us to wait, and so does the weekly for now, so, I'll keep an eye on it to short rallies, or the confirmation of a lower timeframe 'Time at mode' downtrend signal like the one in related ideas. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
USDMXN: Uptrend continuation hereUSDMXN has fired a nice buy signal here, so we can enter gradually over a couple days. If it doesn't move back down under yesterday's open, we can expect significant upside to emerge from here. The fundamental key levels will tell you what prices will probably do with good accuracy. Please refer to my educational chart on the subject, or ask, for more information. Going long USDMXN here is a good idea overall, since it acts a bit like a hedge against SPX during risk off events. Good luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
SPY: Weekly analysisSPY shows a new 14 week uptrend signal here, confirmed on close this week. The current price action suggests that we should see 226.18 hit within 1 week, to maintain this pace, else we might stall or pullback for a while before resuming the move up. Note that there is no inminently bearish element, despite what most people think (...people that have been trying to sell this all the way up). Right now, the weekly signal aims for a target slightly higher than this validation I level I mentioned, at 227.47, and we're almost hitting the first signal that got confirmed after the downtrend failed after the election. The blue box shows the downtrend signal that had confirmed 1 week before the election, for those curious, and the failure, with prices coming back above the mode, or most frequent price level from the top, triggered a short squeeze rally that pointed to $222. The last weekly uptrend signal can technically last until either we hit 227.47, or expire by February 24th, 2017. In the background, you can see the long term uptrend signal target, at $251.18 to be hit by or before July 2018. How do we trade this? If we close December up, we can easily expect to buy any dip on January/February. If we get a dip soon, we can take a shorter term entry again, but there's no entry yet. December FOMC might give us an entry on a decline, but we'll have to wait and see. Right now, I'd reccomend waiting, but don't close your active longs in profit, in equities. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
2
TSLA: Confirmed weekly longWe're already long TSLA, but now we have valid incentives to take a weekly long, specially good if you missed our early bird entry at 184 give or take. The weekly trend is shown to be up, as per the RgMov indicator, and we have a clear pattern where we broke back above the correction 'speed line' which is now holding as support, as well as having buyers step in at previous low volume levels. All of this shows underlying strength, and considering our oil forecasts, and the SCTY merger with no one thought would happen, and last but not least, the % of the float that is short, we can expect a rapid and large short squeeze rally here. If not long, you my enter at market, or on dips, with stops under 178.19, or take a longer term style trade, buying a 2-5% account stake over the course of a few days. (I think it's a bit late for that, but not terrible). Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
5
EUFN: European financials are in danger hereI think we can get a retracement in the financial sector, and Europe is in worse shape than the US in general. It wouldn't surprise me to have some negative news pop out, surrounding Italy's referendum, Deutsche Bank, Italian Banks, UK banks, Brexit, etc. Quite a few potential catalysts for volatility, so, if we see this ETF break the linear regression channel support, we will probably see a rapid selloff. Keep your eyes open, it might be safer to stand aside, and book succesful long trades, or maybe even take a couple strategic shorts. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:EUFNShort
by IvanLabrie
WFC: Buy gradually over a weekWFC gave a nice signal to go long here, when retesting the prolongation of the earnings support to the left (dashed line). I'm adding gradually over a week in this zone. I currently hold a 1.5% account position, since I think we might take a while to take off, but we will most likely see a continuation of the Trump induced rally, and as Tim West pointed out in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom, it has a lot of room to catch up to $BAC, so, don't miss it. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:WFCLong
by IvanLabrie
6
USOIL: Daily view, linear regression and range movement analysisIn this chart I graph the linear regression channels that correspond to each leg in this trend. The trend is mostly up, and it's likely that we're seeing the start of the next major uptrend leg here, since we have found huge buying when retesting the bottom of the long term linear regression channel. Technicals are bullish, without even factoring the fundamentals. The yearly SMA matched this spot, as well as the lowest volume level since the bottom in oil, which is a really strong support, so bearish thesis had to be discarded. Factoring in global demand vs the production cut, the dynamics of supply and demand confirm this idea, and we have strong arguments for holding longs. Additionally, range movement, Tim West's proprietary trend analysis and sentiment analysis tool, shows that we had 2-2.3 point drops in RgMov on each correction in the uptrend, and that's what happened here, so, the sentiment declined enough to form a bottom. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
9
Gold/Stocks ratio: Risk off rally?It appears like we're about to see a pullback in equities, or at least a rally in gold and silver, and a pullback in the dollar here. It might have to do with the Italian referendum as well, but we'll know soon enough. Breaking this trendline would signal risk off sentiment, further validating the gold and silver long ideas I've posted. What I'm not sure of yet, is the extent of the rally to come, and wether it is part of a retracement in a long term trend that has turned down (this is possible), or simply the market is sideways and trendless (forming a giant consolidation or sideways pattern, or even a triangle). You can set alert to know when (if) this trendline breaks, set it to 'crossing up', 'once' using tradingview's handy alert system. Once CCI hits +100, we might get a set up to flip short gold, on weakness, so we have to remain vigilant as gold approaches the 1240-1250 zone. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
12
BABA: Good short setupBABA is currently in a downtrend, and it has a good while before price to sales reaches a more sane level, at least until it hits 77.65 or so. There's a 'Time at mode' downtrend signal that got triggered last Thursday, and we shorted on the pullback on Friday. I bought out of the money puts and bought a put spread to reduce costs on my bearish stance. Risk is 1% overall, and aiming for a nice return here. If you wish to join, you can either trade it with options, in a variety of ways, or simply short the shares using the reccomended stop loss for position size (you don't need to actually place the order). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:BABAShort
by IvanLabrie
6
USDSEK: Close to giving a chance to rejoin the long term uptrendUSDSEK is flashing a sell signal here, but the longer term timeframes are in an uptrend, this makes for a great place to look for longs. I'm monitoring the price action to reenter longs gradually until the 14th close, aiming to risk 1% overall, if price were to drop under my stop. For now, if you wish to buy, you can enter here but risk would be bigger, so keep position size small enough to tolerate a 2883 pip decline from here. Once we approach the downtrend time and price target, we'll start to see price action show signs of reversal and that's when we can amp up the size and tighten stops after it's safe. I'd rather not have a stop or have a wide one until then. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
DXY: Pullback gives a good buying opportunityDXY is in a long term uptrend, so, corrections give way to excellent buying opportunities. This way, we can profit from exploiting volatility, while following our long term vision and fundamental bias. There is a correction under way, which I assume can be similar to the previous ones. I think the move up will start soon, but it'll probably gain steam after FOMC is out of the way, not before. I'd reccomend buying into a position gradually, since now we made a strong move down, breaking into new weekly lows, so we'll need to use a wide stop loss (or calculating size based on risking 0.5-3% of the account, if stopped out 3 times the daily average true range value down from the initial entry). Monitor price action in the coming 8 days, it should be clear when it's about to turn up again, so be ready to add incrementally to the position. Let's see how it goes, good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
2
CLF2017: Oil futures updateWe have closed half higher, near the high of the day, and now stop is at entry price. It might take a while to proceed higher, so there is no rush, simply hold the position for the time being. If you want, you can short calls against it until January but you would defeat any possible upside to come. I did reccomend shorting call options for the $OXY trade though, and here we just close half for now. We need to see how price action evolves from here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYMEX:CLF2017Long
by IvanLabrie
EURNZD: Good buy on strengthI'd reccomend against using stop losses here, you may go long on strength after the close. Risk is $3000 per standard lot if entering here. We can aim for a retest of the election highs at least.Risk 0.5-1% buying over a few days. Seeing a new low here isn't good but it might take a while to get going, so I'm open to that happening. The price action is a bit more erratic between December and February in FX, so I'll be trading smaller positions with wide stops or no stop, entering gradually as prices confirm the analysis, not all at once. I'd reccomend this to people to reduce risk. Add to the trades that start to work, else, you have small risk at first. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5