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ETHEUR: Go long at marketI think ETH has fallen enough here. The euro value of it will turn around, since it has hit the levels associated with the Bitfinex hack. If it doesn't go to 5.96710 within the next 2 months, we could see a monthly scale rally in it, probably due to a change in fundamentals. It's good to see buyers step in here, so, it only takes an increase in activity, and some fundamental news to stage a rally. It's oversold enough, potentially. If you want to buy, you can risk a drop to 5.9671 and enter a 0.5-1% risk long here. Weekly charts show an uptrend, so on any new weekly high, we could see a rally take off. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
XAUUSD: UpdateI think Gold has bottomed here, so, after today's close, we can buy a 0.5% risk position, with stop loss 1 tick under today's low. To be safe, don't place the stop, but watch it. Position size should be based on this, or if conservative, daily volatility. So, two options: Buy a new daily high, after today's daily close, Risk 0.5% if price moves under today's low. Buy a 0.5% risk position, risking a 58 dollar drop from here. Add another position with the same size tomorrow. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
4
SPX: Potential pullback starting, let's watch 2150I think we'll see a retracement next, but I'm not sure about calling for a downtrend in the longer term here. Although fundamentals favor a rally overall, uncertainty over many global events, and proximity to the end of the year, might trigger profit taking, which would drive SPX lower, at least to 2170. If this level doesn't hold, we might test the linear regression channel support, and possibly lower levels, but it's hard to say before hand. It's safer to simply focus on reacting to the key levels and price action in the present. If we don't drop under the election's open, or wost, under the election's daily low, I wouldn't worry too much, but for now, I remain vigilant. I'm shorting a few stocks, booking profits in some longs, and trading the risk off leg using FX and commodities mostly. Shorting SPX is valid, to a certain extent, but there are better vehicles to trade this move. Good luck, and watch the key levels on chart to pick the bottom here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Short
by IvanLabrie
10
USOIL: Intraday viewUSOIL has rallied after the dip that started last Friday bottomed against support. Like I explained in my futures chart, shorts could get trapped if price were to move above the level I labeled in it, and, moving above Friday's close, would warrant a long trade too. The long trade idea is working, and now we're faced with a few possibilities going into the OPEC meeting. Two things can happen: If price doesn't gain momentum and break above 48 within the next 3 hours, we could see it drop back to support at 46 give or take. This would warrant a buy as well, risking a new daily low perhaps. On the other hand, if price moves above 48 soon, and stays there on close, then we can probably get a breakout trade, a 'Time at mode' signal in the daily timeframe, taking off after the OPEC meeting is out of the way (this is probable, but I'd rather buy more on dips). If you're flat, wait for a dip to enter against 46 give or take, or, wait for the breakout trade signal...or short $USDCAD at market with a half position, and stops above at least 1.35125 (or higher) and be willing to add after today's close, if we get a retracement over 1.3450 with the same stop. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
20
AUDUSD: Monthly range expansions show sellers get trapped higherLooking at monthly ranges, we see that months with sharp selloffs, that surpass the previous true range, as measured from the open to the low, have been causing sellers to get trapped at increasingly higher prices. This is bullish and shows accumulation, and shakeouts taking place. The monthly chart shows a mode near the highs, and now we're testing support at the bottom of the monthly range, so we have a great opportunity on the long side, after the market got extremely one sided. Sellers might get trapped here again, this time higher than the previous range expansion months, which is bullish overall. Daily and weekly RgMov readings are bullish, and we have massive lag relative to copper and iron ore, which eventually will play out, so I remain bullish. The entry to add to longs is described in my 4h chart, see related ideas for more information. Keep these levels in mind, once above, they act as support on a retest. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
TSLA: Correction potentially overI'm long TSLA from here, risk is $19.83 per share. I expect a short squeeze rally to come after the merger news come out. If price drops lower, I'd look to buy near $150, but I doubt it'll happen. Long term, buying in this wide range, between 150 and 200 is possibly a great trade. Technically wise, price appears to have formed a falling wedge, maybe the last wave of a correction before more upside. If that's the case we'll see a very rapid rally back to the $270 mark in 1/4 of the time it took to fall down from it. Additionally, we're up for the day here after testing a low volume support level from the weekly, so we have a low risk long opportunity in play. Refer to Tim West's TSLA Elliott Wave count for more information. (keep in mind this is my interpretation of the chart. If you have any doubts about the wave count, contact Tim. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
35
BTCCNY: Daily viewBTCCNY has a longer term uptrend, but here I'm looking at the daily linear regression channels we can draw on each swing. If you extend the lines, after a high pivot happens, you can see where price can bounce, to maintain the uptrend progress. The pink arrows show this, and the channel changes with any high pivot that is broken on retest. I think we have a chance to get action like the green pathway implies, but I'm open to a larger consolidation or even a pullback lower, so I'll react to whatever happens next. For the time being I know where to place my stop if I get a buy agains the support zone between 4953 and 5102: 4805.26. This is a weekly level though, and we also need to wait for one more week to determine if the uptrend speed is sufficient to keep this pace, else we'll see a correction for some time. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
19
USOIL: Hold longs!USOIL is tracing a daily uptrend, and broke above the recent downtrend's linear regression channel. If we hold the current uptrend pace, we can expect the top key level resistances to be hit in a day or two. I'd assume we'll stall while holding support above the monthly downtrend mode in blue, so, I'll be monitoring the uptrend progress to add to it if viable, and to time our exit. I think it's possible we get an OPEC production cut agreement, which could squeeze most shorts, who don't believe it is possible, and the overall bearish retail traders. Trump could play out as a wild card here as well, so it's worth it to keep some long exposure to energy, oil and gas in particular. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19
XAGUSD: 2-month timeframe and weekly timeframe analysisWe have an interesting juncture in Silver here. Next week, if we don't hit 16.075 on close, bear momentum validation will have failed, giving us a buy signal. This happens to match the time expiration of the recent 9 week downtrend signal, which has already exhausted it downside potential ahead of time. If we don't hit 14.881, the long term chart has a potential buy on any drop below 16.412, so it becomes increasingly interesting to go long Silver with this confluence of technical setups in multiple timeframes. Now, the uptrend signals in lower timeframes, might lead to longer term selling by big players, and if that's the case, we could be seeing longer term downtrend continuation, but that remains yet to be seen. What we could glean so far from activity, is that commercials are long term bearish, and whenever they tip the scale too much towards net short positions, silver and gold break down massively, crushing the gold bugs hearts. I think it's not possible to have a long term reversal, before all of them give up, but it hasn't happened yet, and it's unthinkable almost, to see people give up on gold and silver, so I always remain skeptical with long term buys in metals for this reason. Good luck riding the shorter term waves here, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
3
XAUUSD: Gold about to rallyWe have fulfilled my initial expected outcome (check related ideas) and broke below 'everyone's stop' like it has been customary in gold this year. I think we're in the prescence of a sideways/megaphone pattern style thing, where we have a false breakout before each turn. The arrows show the false breaks, and the green X's show the turns. I think we can expect to retest the election day range, or the Brexit day key level zone before going back down, so that's what I aim for. Risk here is a $26 to $80 dollar drop. The thing here is that we haven't managed to break above the long term downtrend mode, since we're back below it, and we have risk of a rate hike in December, so the rally that we get here, could be a pullback in a longer term downtrend. I'll be looking to add to my longs that I opened here (1186 entry) if we get progress and then sell, and sell short at the top, using longer term chart levels for my entry and stop. I've bought EURUSD at 1.0534, with stop at 1.0397 as well, since both are at potential spots for a bottom, after making a 'false break'. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
6
EURUSD: Small long active, adding if we get strengthI think we can get a significant retracement in the Euro until December at least, so I'm currently long from 1.0534, risking a drop to 1.0397, and will look to manage the position and add to it on strength. The key levels here illustrate where to monitor for a reaction on retests, and can give you an idea of what to expect. After today's close, if we get a smaller range day, we could look to add to longs on strength, or alternatively, wait for 3 daily bars to confirm the bearish momentum has faded. I'll be monitoring it and updating this chart once I add to longs. Once the rally is done, I think we will be able to resume the long positions in the dollar, against the SEK and JPY in particular, but possibly against the Euro as well. We'll have to wait and see, but for now, my preferred shorts are SEK and JPY, once viable. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie