NZDUSD: Potential turning pointNZDUSD is at a good support zone, and could turn up from here, following gold, which is very oversold. I'm waiting to enter long here, I'd like to see how today's bar acts, to buy into strength going forward. You shouldn't rush into gold or NZDUSD longs right away, but, should monitor how today behaves first.
The negative news surrounding New Zealand serve as an extra ingredient, to give us enough bearish sentiment for a bottom in here: www.bloomberg.com
Live cattle and milk futures remain bullish, and gold might be about to bottom after stopping out longs and making perma-bulls give up, hopefully, very soon.
If you want to learn more about the trade entry, and risk management, contact me via pm.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Timeatmode
INTC: Great correction to buy more or enter for the first timeINTC gave us a nice correction after the earnings report, sending it close to support at 34.90 and also landing on the lower deviation of a linear regression channel that I started from 2016's low, and anchored the other end to the highest high on October 10th. The new Key Earnings Level should act as a magnet propelling prices back up to 36.50 quickly. Once we break above it, and start moving up again, price will resume the long term uptrend.
Check related ideas for more information regarding the trend duration, targets and more.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
EURUSD: Neutral long term stance, potentially bearish long termIn this chart I show you the time at mode signal active on chart. Currently, there's a 6 month timeframe downtrend that demands price to hit 0.91505 by May-July 2019, or sooner, and a 2 month signal that is very close to confirming.
Confirmation for this signal can come if we hit 1,07422 during October, or if November-December closes with a high that is lower than 1.10971.
There's a kicker here though, the RgMov indicator -which plots a visual representation of investor sentiment, obtained using a proprietary calculation developed by my mentor, Tim West- is showing a deeper decline than the one observed on the previous bottom, which could be a bullish signal, if we get further confirmation, or simply an increase in bearish sentiment.
If we don't see 0.95047 hit during the next 2 months, this would constitute a bullish signal on close, and I could envision this happening if the Fed disappoints the bears by not hiking interest rates on the December FOMC meeting.
For now, I'm flat EURUSD, but I have long positions in USDSEK, USDJPY, USDCHF and USDNOK.
I'll be monitoring the progress in the dollar to either hold my trades anticipating the lofty long term targets seen here, or, look to flip long if we get reasons to do so.
The best thing is that we will get a big long term signal within 2 months. Stay tuned for updates.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
IBB: Go long, hedge or notSame theme as SPY, we have an excellent long opportunity here. I like the VIX and pseudo-VIX activity today (USDMXN if you might ask), so I think we have a bottom in place here. Stop is a new low, risk 0.5% going long at market open, add to reach 1% risk on dips in the following 3 days. You may or not hedge with either a half size LABD position, or IBB puts at $255, Dec 16 expiration.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Australian Dollar AUDUSD set up for a 10% rallyUsing a mechanical-only approach to analyzing the market can provide disciplined, unbiased and unemotional projections.
The AUDUSD has been building a base down here for the last 9 months where every single month has traded between 0.75 and 0.764. The trend-indicator "RgMov" hit a new 44-bar high in early 2016 which pointed to opportunities to buy 11-week oversold (using CCI(11)) and two signals have occurred so far. We are close to a 3rd signal.
The last 6 months have been a period of diminishing volatility as the monthly ranges have tightened. Notice the reduced ATR% line at the bottom. You can also see it in the size of the trading ranges on the monthly boxes.
The potential fundamental lift here is for the expectation of a rebound in commodities as investors look for a Gov't led infrastructure spend here in the US.
The "ENTRY LONG" for AUDUSD will take several steps, but I like my odds here even though the market hasn't started moving away from the "white box" "mode" on the chart. If we hold above the yellow line at .7476 the market is in very strong hands and if above .7640 there is a strong chance for acceleration up. If we see acceleration up, then you want to force yourself to jump on board and to be prepared to buy dips, as labeled in the green rally forecast to the "target zone" shown.
Stop loss 0.7400
Target 0.84-0.87
Time frame: 3-7 months
Tim 11/11/2016 .75519 last
USDMXN: Fading the irrational rally, viva Mexico!This morning I bought an $MXF stake at the open, and shorted USDMXN at 20.0022. I think we might be in the presence of an 'ending diagonal triangle', or terminal wedge, in Elliott Wave parlance, in particular according to the Neowave rules. If that's the case, we will a see brutal rally in the Peso, sending USDMXN down to 16.43 in approximately the time the arrow indicates on chart. My clients are long MXF but not in the USDMXN trade, it is a higher risk trade, so only take it if you have higher risk tolerance and don't risk over 1% on it.
The initial move in equities and the peso made absolutely no sense in my opinion after discussing it with Tim West. We've been buying on weakness today, along with my clients and the people over at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom -and with great results if I may add-. Apparently Carl Icahn tagged along, buying a neat 1 billion worth of stocks today.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BAC: Massive cluster of earning levels aboveThe short term chart shows very bullish signals in BAC, we can enter longs here, on dips to 15.45, and/or add on a break of 15.85. Stops for all positions should be at 14.81.
There is a giant resistance zone above, so if crossed, we can let this trade run for a good while.
Most traders are not in stocks from this sector, and it's not a good idea right now.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Copper: Monthly uptrend ready to triggerIf copper doesn't retest 2.116 on close, it'll confirm a long term uptrend, and possibly even a long term reversal. This could bode extremely well for the Aussie dollar, and as a general bullish signal for the global economy.
Keep an eye on this powerful signal here.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
SPY: Brave call - Bottom's inJust want to document this call. I'm long with 20% of my portfolio here.
No hedges now, you can jump in and risk 1% with either a 3 ATR stop loss, or a new daily low if bold.
SPX cfds are a good option for FX traders who don't trade equities, you may enter here if not in.
Stop at today's low +1 tick is ok.
You can simply go with no stop and size it to fit 20% of your cash in an equities account.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
AUDUSD: Breaking above the rate cut key levelAUDUSD is set to start accelerating as the massive long term accumulation pattern leads to a rally of monthly scale here. If not long, jump in now with 0.5% risk. Your downside risk is 60 pips give or take, for aggressive traders, and a drop back to 0.76 for more conservative long term positions.
Once we move above 0.7350, we'll have further confirmation that the long term rally I predict is underway and we can expect prices close to 0.84 to get hit.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
DXY: Bottom of the pullback spotted, watch out ComeyI believe we can reenter longs safely, or add back to long term positions here and specially tomorrow on strength.
If interested in learning about the risk management used here contact me, you could do it in different ways, depending on your risk appetite, and timeframe.
I'd say that Comey has a mean right cross, but dollar is back up and ready to fight back...let's see how it goes.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
STLD: Massive uptrend in steel comingSTLD's chart is massively bullish, the same as copper, iron ore futures, AUDUSD, and other correlated instruments. The setup here confirmed some time ago, but it's relevant as an analysis piece now. Most people are bearish on equities but I believe we're seeing the bottom here, or very close. Rising commodity prices seem likely going forward as well, which will benefit the AUDUSD bulls like me.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Gold/Silver ratio: Long term bearish declineThe Gold/Silver ratio shows an interesting setup here, and correlation to inverted SPX, which points to the nature of the ratio's movement tied to risk off/on phases. This has to do with the real world applications silver has as an industrial metal, compared to gold's function as a store of value and risk off protection.
I think we can see a long term decline, implying the price of silver will either appreciate or depreciate less than the price of gold, in comparison to it at least.
It's probably a good trade to take as a pair, which if you're using futures, implies you use a 2 to 3 ratio, selling 2 GC contracts and buying 3 SI contracts to enter the trade with reduced margin requirements. (I think there's a new contract for the ratio alone, but not familiar with it). You should size the trade based on risking 1% to 2% max if the price were to go against you coming back to 70.43.
In the case of CFD or FX traders, you could open trades in the XAUUSD and XAGUSD instruments, or using this XAUXAG or XAGXAU contracts if they exist in your platform. If you own physical gold, exchanging it for silver makes sense at this point (if you didn't already).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD index: Buy dips, sell partially on rallies, rinse/repeatThe BTCUSD index chart here depicts an interesting price pattern, a cup and handle in the making.
This pattern usually is powerful, specially when the signal coincides with a 'Time at mode' trend signal and is coherent with all the technical and fundamental observations we can make here.
I don't personally use it for trading decisions, but it's certainly visible, specially if you look at the highest daily lows, and lowest daily highs on chart (refer to my educational piece for info on how to use that information).
The weekly time at mode setup is shown in the related idea below, as well as my trade calls posted here lately.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
CLX: Clorox bleeding cash, structural shortI think this is a really good short setup. The company is bleeding cash, funding their huge dividend with debt, not complying with regulations regarding the usage of sustainable palm oil on their products and the technical chart shows an ideal entry against resistance here.
The entry is very tactical, a perfect technical setup, paired with bad fundamentals for this company, with only a 1% earnings yield, a 1.2% free cash flow yield, and falling free cash flow and after tax margins.
Good luck if taking it.
Ivan Labrie.