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$MSTR: From leader of men to outcastMichael Saylor used to be revered by Bitcoin fanatics, since he was mega bullish their favorite asset class and loud as hell. The ultimate degenerate gambler in the space. His other people's money gambling habits are nothing new, as he battled with fraud allegations back in the hey day of the Dot Com bubble. Now he's making yet another fund raising round to buy yet more Bitcoin, this time not using debt, but rather issuing new shares. There's a very clear technical trend signal that formed here and indicates a rally has started and can extend until either the $551.38 target is reached or the October 28th deadline is met. Another thing to keep in mind is that the monthly down trend signal in the stock expires during October, which could be a sign of a general recovery in crypto for the next 10 months as well: There's an interesting resistance level higher, see the red line on chart, it indicates the price zone where Elon Musk bought Bitcoin back in Jan 2nd 2021. The SEC filing announcing it publicly didn't come out until February 8th, and that was the very top in $MSTR, who was the loudest proponent of putting Bitcoin in companies' balance sheet as an inflation/doomsday hedge. I'm not in the stock, and option premium is historically astronomical so the smartest way to play it is to buy or sell stock in general. The weekly trend signal activated on Friday when price moved over $258.97. Entries at that price or lower would be good, invalidation for the signal would be on a drop under $219.39. I have a hard time going long here, same as everyone I talk to regularly about markets, but it seems like the right thing to do. I'm personally long Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as $COIN, but not in $MSTR yet. I'd trade this one small to be safe, since it's a far riskier play than the other 3 I mentioned. Perhaps a 1% long shot gamble would be adequate. 6.6%+- would risk 1% give or take. Risking 0.1-0.2% seems ok to me here. If this were to be a more long lasting bottom, upside would be significant and make it worth it. We can figure that out over time, as we get more cues from price and fundamental events. Best of luck if you're entering this one, if it gaps up on Monday, then it's probably best to just let it go. Chances are you followed my Bitcoin publication and bot that near 21030, so that would be more than enough exposure really....Still interesting to track this chart and fundamental events as Saylor can have a significant impact on Bitcoin, considering the amount he holds. Risks floating over Bitcoin's head like a Damocles sword are mainly Saylor's bag needing to be liquidated in loss over time, and MtGox creditors being repaid. I'd keep an eye out for those events. Once out of the way, Bitcoin has far less risk and way bigger chances of achieving sustained, long term upside. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by IvanLabrie
2
$TSLA: Weekly and Monthly turned upAs per my prior post, $TSLA started to reverse the decline from the market top, after Elon sold shares back then. Recently, Kimbal Musk exercised options to purchase shares, and we had a series of interesting developments. The last report was very good considering the lock downs in China affecting $TSLA Shanghai as well as sales in China, as well as high commodity prices weighing in on input costs. Despite this, $TSLA surged after reporting earnings which showed they generated $621M in free cash flow despite factory costs and China lock downs impacting them. They raised $936M from selling Bitcoin, which also helps reduce risk and correlational impact from down days in crypto markets, and might ease some PM anxiety regarding the company (and mine). Weekly trend turned bullish last week, I am long, holding here, but interesting to note the new monthly signal, which points to a price target of $1625 by May 2023. Upcoming fundamental catalysts are interesting as well, and combined with the new spending plan, set the stage for a rally provided my general market view is correct here. I don't consider the stock split a big deal, but it will help trade options safely for people with smaller accounts, that's likely coming during August, then we have a potential credit rating upgrade as well. By October, the $TWTR trial is a risk but might help get rid of some risk in the stock, as Elon could need to sell shares if forced to acquire the company. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
3
$DXY: New weekly signal spotted...The dollar index has flashed a buy signal in the daily and weekly timeframes here, I've bot some exposure to it via long calls in $UUP expiring by late September. The weekly Time@Mode trend signal forecast implies a substantial move lasting 6 weeks from here onwards. Downside risk is small, the signal suggests a 3.65 times reward to risk ratio, if the target is reached and the stop isn't, since the signal popped on Thursday this week. Trading FX signals like this adds a nice source of alpha to a stocks portfolio, I like to focus on the dollar index for simplicity's sake, but at times there's good opportunities in cross pairs as well, for those avid with macro analysis. Best of luck if buying the dollar here, expect a strong rally until the target is reached at least, with +60% odds. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$UNG: Next leg up in Nat Gas pricesI think we may see a rapid advance in Nat Gas here, the technical setup in $UNG paves the way for a 18.4:1 reward to risk potential trade. I'm long equity here, but you could trade this with options, or an equivalent fund in the EU or UK (if you're EU based). Futures or options on futures are also an option, but more complicated to execute with maximum efficiency. I suggest you explore this if you're more experienced, and able to determine which strategy to use to maximize RR and performance vs capital allocated to this idea. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:UNGLong
by IvanLabrie
6
$DXY: Trend is up, hard to stop the advance...The Dollar offers a nice reward to risk entry as a continuation trade here. I'm long via FX pairs and a Dollar Index position. Eventually, it might take coordinated intervention to stop this advance, fundamentals are firmly in place for a continued trend in the Dollar against foreign currencies, given the limitations to affect the energy market and of monetary policy itself in the Euro area. Japan benefits from increased competitivity for their exports, and won't be able to stop the advance if they wished to do so on their own. Perhaps at some point we will get coordinated intervention similar to what transpired in 1985 with the Plaza Accord. The rally here in quarterly and yearly scale is potentially of huge scale, so I'll be ready to trade any continuation signal to the upside while the trend variables remain in place. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
2
$AAPL: Bubble popped...again?I'm short $AAPL here, I think it is at risk if tensions escalate further with China, after $NVDA and $AMD were banned from exporing sensitive AI related gear to China. The chart shows a weekly down trend has popped and a monthly decline can confirm on close if it stays down long enough. Downside is substantial, as seen on chart, the last weekly trend hit the target, before staging a rapid relief rally following the expiration of the trend. I identified the bottom when Goldman Sachs cut their target for $AAPL downgrading it before an epic rally ensued. They have a pretty good inverse track record historically in this regard. Best of luck if taking this trade, Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by IvanLabrie
2
$TLT: Preparing to buy when safeI am monitoring bonds here, as we are approaching the target of a weekly down trend signal that fired recently, while the monthly timeframe trend is about to reach its end. By the end of September, the odds of a reversal in bonds will be very high, while equities are looking like they could crash lower from here possibly, and we could get inflation to come down, likely due to the effect of recessionary forces at play thanks to Powell's hawkishness. Since the Federal Reserve is hell bent on killing inflation hiking rates, and the data they use won't make them worry about this course of action until it's likely too late, odds of something breaking badly here are substantial. As such, I'm eager to spot the bottom in $TLT / $ZROZ to invest. We have a decent enough juncture here, where it starts making sense to pay attention to reversal cues in multiple timeframes and monitor signals closely to go long big time when confirmed. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by IvanLabrie
$NQ_F: Looks like a weekly uptrend could triggerIf prices hold up during next week, equities can stage a substantially strong weekly advance. The same pattern is visible in $ES_F and $SPY overall, and also crypto. We might have seen a long lasting major low set in stone in markets across the board. Prices of oil have come down more than 30% since the top 6 months ago, this gives equities a boost over time with a 3-6-9 month lag to reap the fruits of the lower cost of energy as a tailwind for the economy going forward (as depicted in @timwest's publication on the subject, see related ideas). People had reached peak pessimism lately, and even though meme stock gamblers still are around, I believe they might not represent a significant contrarian signal for the broad market but rather simply be the latest incarnation of the penny stock gamblers and pump and dump forum users of old, as a new generation of traders joins the market. Over time we will know more but I suspect this is a meaningful juncture longer term and we should all be paying VERY close attention to the developments in energy, the war in Ukraine, China and the fate of Xi's leadership and zero COVID, renewables and EV adoption and monetary policy of course. Going forward we have various headwinds as well, potential increase of labor costs if deglobalization/reshoring takes place, higher than target sustained inflation rates and gradually higher bond yields after being suppressed for years in a world in a state of lull for a decade, etc. I like the idea of focusing on a few core themes and managing risk in concentrated bets to milk said themes in the event of a rally, so my positioning is spread across a small list of individual names, rather than index products. Although it's interesting to track developments in index charts as well. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$ETHUSDT: Merge incoming, uptrend in the daily$ETHUSDT is interesting, I've been bullish relatively vs Bitcoin for a while, but got out of my latest attempt at riding the pair trade in minor loss of 0.15% yesterday. I had secured some gains since my last publications before, and tried buying back after a dip. See related ideas for the last post. There is a lingering chance of forming a monthly uptrend in $ETHBTC, so I do like the idea of having some $ETHUSD exposure (although smaller than my Bitcoin long given the higher volatility and risk). Fundamental events are interesting, as we approach the timeline for the Merge of the Beacon chain (secured by POS ) and the old chain secured by POW, which will occur at some point between now and the next 9 days give or take. Following this change, issuance of Ethereum will go down dramatically as most people know, and given the changes introduced with EIP1559, could eventually even become deflationary over time as fees are burnt at a greater rate than coins are created. Staking can result in an APR of 4.5-7% potentially, which might make it attractive if inflation rates come down over time. For price to form a long term uptrend, a larger than 10 month bar signal must fire, which isn't yet doable, but depending on how things evolve, could be achievable after October. Just a low probability scenario for now, but given the low risk of buying down here vs potential upside in that scenario, is something that I'd evaluate over time. As more and more data points confirm we are safe to hold, we can let the trade run and capture a big trend landing us huge reward to risk multiples. Hence my interest in being relatively early with buying strength after big declines, when people are not as interested as at the peak euphoria we had in April 2021 or in Dec 2021. Let's see how it evolves, owning $ETH spot with say 5% of your capital might be a good decision here. Be wary of the average price level at which people staked coins a while back, that level can act as supply and slow down or even reverse any advance, if price were to test it next. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$NVDA: Short it, the death of GPU mining is a nice catalystThe chart here looks perfect for a short in $NVDA, and as a bonus we have #Ethereum transitioning to Proof of Stake for transaction validation, which together with high electricity prices will make GPU mining go extinct overall. I'm short, as part of my long/short stocks portfolio. The other shorts are crypto currently, which are likely the riskiest of all risk on assets, and might act as a nice hedge for other stock longs. The trend is clear from a technical stand point, and we have many macro headwinds, so I can see the stock plummeting even if index charts stay sideways or not go down as much. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by IvanLabrie
5
$BTCUSD: Weekly uptrend signal...We now have a weekly uptrend signal in Bitcoin suggesting a rally to $28k is possible here...I was skeptical with this possibility but there's a similar rally in various risk assets, and we even had some strange sentiment signals lately (Pomp removed laser eyes from his Twitter profile). Everyone hates this rally, at least among my close circle, which is interesting as well. I'm long, since risk is small, with an invalidation a bit below 20k. Don't risk more than 1-5% in any trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
3
$ETHBTC: Bullish in the weekly chartWeekly trend has now turned up in the $ETHBTC ratio, while the bearish trend in the daily failed to hit target and was completely erased. It seems buying into the merge event is driving the ratio higher here. I can see the 0.092 target zone being hit quickly here, while you may also qualify to receive some free coins if there is a fork (you can see how much it's worth using the $ETHWUSD or $ETHWBTC symbol from Bitfinex). Coincidentally, there's a bullish time@mode trend signal in the $ETHWUSD and $ETHWBTC charts that just flashed today, as this signal in $ETHBTC triggered in the weekly. Might be an interesting move. Best of luck if buying. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$ETHBTC: Ethereum peaked...short it.The pre merge enthusiasm caused a big rally in both the ratio and dollar charts, both charts just flashed a short signal in the daily chart with very tight stops and big reward to risk, with open ended downside if it keeps trending down after the 1st range target is hit here. I'm long $SPY vs a long $BITI position as a pair trade currently, but will also add an Ethereum short as well. (probably ok to do a naked short or own puts) Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
1
$LCID: Short it to $0...cash burning like there's no tomorrow.I'm shorting $LCID here, nice weekly setup, downside targets are $9-10, and up to $1-2 by December 2nd or sooner. I'm long puts to ride this move, since the stock is hard to borrow. Worth a shot, you could also consider a portfolio where you long the relatively safe EV names vs shorts in EV startups that are burning cash and unprofitable, which will likely continue to pay off (long $TSLA, $F, $RIVN maybe, vs shorts in $NKLA, $LCID, $ARVL, $FFIE, $FSR, etc)
NASDAQ:LCIDShort
by IvanLabrie
9
$XLE: Weekly and monthly uptrendNice signal in energy names. Macro and fiscal policy are sure making the Fed's life hard. The trend in commodities, energy, value vs growth remains bullish, same as the trend in the Dollar vs the Euro. The recent drop in inflation and oil created a very low risk buy opportunity in commodities in general. I've rotated away from my growth focused portfolio in the prior week, and am long $XLE and other names in my portfolio. I suggest you do the same, very interesting time, where the easy money disappeared from markets and people will likely get schooled time and time again trying to gamble in the same garbage names as between 2020 and 2022. Stay safe out there! Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:XLELong
by IvanLabrie
$FTTBTC: Pair trade setup...I think we can go long $FTTUSD against a same size short in $BTCUSD, the ratio chart shows there's 95% upside with 5% risk give or take, historically, in bear markets, exchange tokens have done well vs Bitcoin (like $BNBBTC did in the prior bear market back in 2018-2020). It might be worth a punt here...Betting on Sam might be a decent gamble, relatively vs Bitcoin at least. You can stake your $FTT as well, while you hold the $BTCUSD short, but need enough collateral to not be at risk. The bearish case in $BTCUSD might still be valid, judging by the action today, which erased yesterday's up bar. It's worth a shot. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
$BTCUSD: Weekly trend confirms on close...We have an interesting situation, crypto related stocks and altcoins have rallied far more than $Bitcoin has so far, and now the weekly chart is flashing what could be a big buy signal in the mid to long term. I'm personally skeptical of sentiment, since it seems a bit confusing given what I observe (anecdotal) but the macro backdrop and technical chart give a cue to go long here, risking a 10% drop to make between 17% and 57% within the next 4 weeks. Overall, most setups in weekly charts are similar, and point to a risk on rally until late Sep to early Oct. Markets will be watching labor related data and inflation prints to try to assess what the Federal Reserve will do by Sep FOMC. Inflation could start to come down given the drop in commodities and the demand destruction effect of high mortgage rates and high oil prices affecting the economy broadly. (which likely kickstarted the decline we are seeing since the top in commodities). A lot of the 'stagflation bros' and similarly aligned perma bear types who have been gloating at the bottom and calling bulls stupid as markets came back up, are expecting the latest NFP report to be an indication of persistent high inflation but there could be deflationary cross currents that might not be on the spotlight now (like potential increase of labor force participation given that the people who expected to retire from crypto and stonk gains got totally destroyed at the depths of the decline and will need to get a job, as well as the demand destruction in commodities and lack of stimulus in China). I think such people are biased, and decided to stay wrong given their rigid thinking rather than act based on data to verify the validity of a thesis with new data points, as they should be. I strive to do 'post-pattern' verification of technical setup expectations and fundamental predictions to stay right, after a thesis of mine generates some positive PNL over time. This is the best way to manage risk and achieve good returns in trends. In the case of #Bitcoin, it's hard to give it a role as a portfolio diversifier, but it's an interesting asset class to trade speculatively based on technical analysis to manage risk and generate positive reward to risk trades over time. I would never advocate hodling it, as there is no substance other than some potential use cases that could remain viable at any price due to the mining game theory which Satoshi brilliantly laid out. I do like the potential in Lightning network for scaling over time, but that is not going to bring demand by itself magically and is still not here yet. So this remains a tactical trade. Best of luck gentlemen! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
#AUDNZD: Keep an eye on the basing pattern here...The weekly down trend signal in $AUDNZD expires next week, this means a potential reversal can be setting up. At the same time, the daily chart is basing and can flash a bullish signal in a day or more. I'll be watching this pair closely in the coming days, after today's close in particular. The recent bout of #NZD strength courtesy of RNBZ's hawkishness has droven the cross pair too far in my opinion and is bound to mean revert substantially, as we recover from peak pessimism when it comes to Australia and China... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
$WKHS: interesting junctureI will list a series of facts, which make me think we can gamble a small amount of money on a long shot trade entry in $WKHS: The new climate spending bill includes items that could benefit EV names, and there could be renewed interest in names that could end up landing the deal with the United States Postal Service to provide them with vans. www.bloomberg.com cathiesark.com Cathie Woods sold. Bullish. Long term mode retested, after the prior long term bullish trend signal peaked at the target as per my forecast published here ages ago, it has come all the way down and it's basing, could be a bottom in the making, as we had 13 months elapse since the expiration of the last monthly trend, which was at the end of June, weekly trend turned up since and monthly put on a strong candle, with a range expansion move signaling strength. I'm long, small 1% position as a 'long shot' trade. Potential reward to risk is interesting, but worst I can lose is 1% if it goes to $0. (that's what I call a 'long shot') Let's see how it goes, my other positions here are $TSLA, $F and a small bet in $RIVN as well. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:WKHSLong
by IvanLabrie
$NGAS: Natural gas can go 90% higher from hereIt's clear Nat Gas can gain traction fast here, I'm long since yesterday, via $UNG shares. Looking to add an options position here, since weekly charts are now bullish, I pre-emptively took a trade based on a daily signal, speculating on the weekly and eventually monthly kicking off. I commented about it in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom here and offered it to my clients as a signal as well. With last night's shelling of a nuclear plant, escalation seemed likely, and the next step could be to enact sanctions on natural gas exports, which could deal a blow to supply and create a dramatic move to the upside as a side effect. Fundamentals aside, reward to risk and probability are on our side, so it's a good idea to get some decent exposure here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$TSLA: Held the S&P500 inclusion level$TSLA has a bottom signal in the daily here, I'm long as of yesterday, time and price target is shown in yellow. Until the next earnings report, price might glide higher. Considering the $TWTR merger, risk of Elon needing to sell more shares is a scary but not impossible bearish catalyst that could rain in the bull's parade soon. Partnering with a PE firm would be a safer bet for $TSLA shareholder's cardiac health, but it's not yet clear what route Elon will go with yet. Earnings might not look too great this quarter, considering Elon's recent sayings about new factories still being a source of losses for the company (clearly gonna be a negative factor until they produce at full capacity, not a demand problem yet). Also have to factor in risk from recent down time in Shanghai due to lock downs and potential impact of the economy on sales with rising inflation and fuel prices affecting consumers. This last point might be what Elon talked about when referring to the economy being at risk of entering a recession soon. I'm sure that if a recession occurs, $TSLA might stay sideways or go lower over time until the market bottoms. To be safe, I'll only trade the stock in the short term. I don't see a huge reward to risk trade in long term exposure to the stock here, all things considered. Long term technical targets are all reached, and price has formed a bearish trend signal in the weekly/biweekly/monthly timeframes, with only the daily trend reversing now. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
2
$AMZN: Down trend slowing down...There's a possibility of further downside for $AMZN over time, but currently, price action and the drop in commodities suggest that $AMZN is likely to go higher for a while. Until the next FOMC meeting, market participants might bet on a Fed pivot taking place sooner rather than later, given the drop in commodities suggesting inflation might be under control already. I personally think what comes after it is a recession, particularly if the Fed stays in the same hawkish course for longer...For now I'm out of bearish positions and went long using options in a few select names, as well as stock positions in names like $TWTR and $TSLA, etc. Upside here is good, see the yellow boxes for time and price targets in the immediate short term. What comes after this relief rally until mid to late July is to be seen. Will know more when we get there. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by IvanLabrie
1