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Up, Up & away for USDCADI use multi-frame technical analysis to support my set-ups as higher time-frames are always more reliable. Therefore, lets look at UC by starting on the monthly time frame. Monthly time-frame: The ascending trendline, indicates that the current trend is bullish, thus looking for longs will be better than shorts Weekly time-frame: When dropping down to the weekly time-frame, it can be seen that the pair is moving in an ascending channel, due to its consecutive higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). further approving that looking for longs will be better than entering any short trade. daily time-frame: The last daily candlestick in the yellow bubble (15/03), indicated a reversal of the downtrend that the pair was currently in from the weekly key level 1.34500 to the monthly key level 1.33250. therefore a long position is now finally presenting itself. Explanation for long-prediction: 1. the pair is showing an uptrend on both the monthly and weekly timeframes (higher time frames = more reliable & never trade against the trend) 2. the reversal candle around the resistance-turned-support key level 1.33250 3. last daily closure indicated a reversal in trend long trade setup: in the long term, i predict the pair reaching the 1.38750 (trendline), or the next major monthly key level 1.40000 however, in the short term, multiple TP's will be placed at the upcoming weekly and monthly key levels of 1.34500, 1.36500 and the final TP (that of the long term prediction) i will look for an entry on the 4hr time frame, once it rejects the 1.33250 region again. risk:reward ratio is within my trading plan.
Long
by YajnaR
EUR/USD: Weekly overview! Timelines and technical details!#SellHey tradomaniacs, welcome to a weekly overview of Euro / US Dollar. It`s been very boring during the past weeks and the market had to choose a path fighting inside a range of the wedge. Neither EURO or USD had the final say yet but it looks like the EURO is going to loose this fight since we`ve seen another attempt to break out of the range and stopped at the previous support which could be an evidence of an S&R-Flip. The previous two weeks do look like a desperate "try hard" of the bulls to push the euro towards north but did not even make it to the strong tested resistance at 1.14525. The defense of team bulls at yard 1.13 was very strong but at the end not good enough to prevent team bears to shot the next goal. The big picture shows an S/H/S-Pattern which should be a strong evidence for another sell-off after this breakout towards parity down to a possible price of 1.06. Timelines: The timelines are pretty accurate and harmonic and do indicate time for a downtrend. Comparing the divergences of them do show us a common happening. During a trend we`ve seen at least 2 waves with a "settlement" with Wave A which indicates the time of the primary trend. The right shoulder shows a settlement of Wave B, Alpha and Beta and indicates a correction of Wave A. Amplitude and lenght are pretty accurate. After that correction we`ve see a harmonic agreement of Wave A, B and alpha. The next attempt to correct indicated by the Alpha-Wave did not get its support of Wave B anymore and wasn`t able to break out of the wedge. This divergence often confirms the weakness of the opposite direction of the Wave A + Wave B combination. Right now we will head into an another "agreement" of all waves. Overall we see a very bearish chart and can expect a new sell-off to start soon in ordewr to complete the S/H/S-Pattern. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
Short
by Trading2ez
S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis UpdateThe scenario dictated by Elliott Wave Theory remains bullish. In particular, as in the last update, the American index is in Intermediate wave 3, but with the difference that the sub-wave 3 seems to have ended. The latter has an extension greater than that of Minor 1, this will allow wave 5 to be longer than 3. The main scenario implements the wave formation of Minor 4 and its sub-wave C. On the graph central, the lower trend line of the channel should act as a dynamic support and target of Minor 4. Moreover, respecting the principle of alternation since wave 2 was a zig zag, now wave 4 seems to be a flat, or at least a lateral correction like a triangle.
SP:SPX
by LucaDallago
GBPJPY outlook: Short term & Long term view.1W: GBPJPY broke out of a descending trend line last week, exposing the pair to further potential upside movement. A retest of the trend line may occur before price starts to increase. 4H: On the 4H chart we can see price broke and closed below a short term ascending trend line, opening up possibility for a short term decline in price. Trading plan: Going into the week ahead we would like to sell the pair short-term upon a retest of the broken 4H trend line & a bearish 4H candle close. We would then wait for bullish price action signal when price reaches the reversal zone & find entries to long-term buy trades. Be aware of any upcoming high impact economic news for GBP & JPY. Brexit speeches/news which may cause large spikes. Updates will be posted as this trade plays out.
Long
by JallenForex
Pattern Analysis; incorporating timeframes (USOIL)Understanding trends within a pattern gives analysts the ability to better understand sentiment and directional pressure. In this example, pattern extremities were highlighted. Then, on a lower timeframe, trends within said pattern drawn. Overlaying timeframes is a necessary part of a complete analysis, and a complete commodity analysis can help piece together economic factors affecting commodity-sensitive currencies such as CAD and AUD.
TVC:USOILEducation
by TRADINGTRADER22222
2
Channel Analysis (USDCAD)Using proximal and distal lines to mark channel extremities takes emotion and guess-work out of swing trading! Furthermore, using multiple timeframes allows for more accurate timing and thus more control over risk/reward. As can be seen here, proximal and distal lines were used to highlight reversal areas on both the top and bottom of the channel. Then, using a smaller timeframe, an area of price-interest was highlighted to get a better understanding of direction. Outlook: Bullish to 1.37~ Void if price <1.31~
Education
by TRADINGTRADER22222
GBPNZD H1 Bearish BatH1 Bearish Bat Harmonics Pattern The pattern will complete at point D however I am entering trade on a deeper price represented by the black dotted line. Reason for this is because this is GBPNZD - GBP cross pair and tend to be more volatile and higher broker spread. I saw bigger Bullish Harmonics Patterns on H4 and Daily on the Higher timeframe and gave me added reason to short this pair at this level. Entry: 1.8965 SL: 1.9032 (-67pips) TP1: 1.8846 (+119pips) TP2: 1.8780 (+185pips) Do like and share this post. Follow me if my trading style suits you as I will be posting new trade ideas and analysis regularly.
Short
by TradeWithWayneYia
GBPCHF - New Daily Trend??1M - We saw last month close with a strong bullish engulfing bar off of a historical support level. This is a key level that price action has failed to break below numerous times. It is all time lows for GBPCHF and a strong rejection off of this level could mean we may see price action continue higher over the next couple of months. 1W - After a double bottom, price has rallied up over the past few weeks and has now broken some key levels. We are currently seeing price retesting the weekly 50 ema and some horizontal S/R. If we get a higher low form at this area, it could be confirming a bullish trend continuation based on the monthly timeframe. 1D - Recently a lot of bullish pressure has come in and we currently have a nice pullback retesting some S/R and the daily 20 ema. Based on previous testing, the 20 ema seems to act as great dynamic S/R when there is pressure coming from the higher timeframes (monthly chart specifically). We may see a new daily bullish trend develop once we get a confirmed higher low around this area. Summary - This is a longer term position that has bullish indications from the daily all the way to the monthly chart. Based on everything that we are currently seeing, we could see bullish pressure come in on this pair over the next couple of months. Main target is the next S/R level on the weekly chart and a new higher high. This would still be well below the monthly 50 ema too, so we would consider it to be a conservative target for this pair. The main concern is the daily S/R zone around the recent high. We will be keeping an eye on how price reacts to this area.
Long
by fx_technician
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 320)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P closed > S & M MA but instantly reversed to the downside. L MA still bearish Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel | Symmetrical Triangle Horizontals: S: $3,377 | R: $3,472 Trendline: Symmetrical triangle inside bear channel Parabolic SAR: $3,336 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 1.90% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like they are pulling back for a 21,650 retest Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0126% TD’ Sequential: R4 | 3D just closed R9 Ichimoku Cloud: Paying attention to how the Tenkan-Sen just angled down sharply. Relative Strength Index: Continuing to trend down below 50 Average Directional Index: Still resisting below 25 Price Action: 24h: -0.1% | 2w: -3.2% | 1m: -13.9% Bollinger Bands: Trending down, squeezing with price below MA. As bearish as it gets. Stochastic Oscillator: D threatening to recross bullish (always find it amazing when it does this on bearish price action) 3D is making bullish cross and that has been a very good indicator in this bear market. Summary: I feel confident that volatility is coming in the next 24 hours. The violent reaction following today’s close is what makes me feel so certain. The daily closed at $3,429 and then there was an immediate influx of selling volume. The high volume combined with the bearish wick is something that I pay very close attention to. Either support will hold strong and provide the foundation for a significant bounce, or it will tear right through the support and go for a retest of prior lows. It is still too early to induce which direction is most likely from here, however I do not think that will remain the case when it comes time for tomorrow’s daily update. The most important chart to me is still the LTCBTCSHORTS which continue to create new all time highs. That looks like very low hanging fruit to me for someone with enough money to execute a short squeeze. If that happens then I believe in will lead the entire crypto market into a 1+ month dead cat bounce up to the $5,200 - $5,800 area. The 3D Stochastic is provided a nice confirmation of that bias. Look for yourself at how well that signal has worked throughout this bear market! The 3D red 9 is another good confirmation that a bounce is coming.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
1
GBPCAD 500+ pip move potentialGBP has been dominating all week and is, imho, overextended. GBPCAD is now at a Daily Resistance level that has been rejected 3 out of the last 4 times (75%) Need to see compression on the 60 min chart below the resistance level and then a strong bearish candle for entry. Entry = not yet ??? the stop will be 10 pips (+2 for spread above the last swing high) PT = 1.6668 * both sides of this pair have news release that will effect this trade. GBP retail sales at 4:30 est.which is forecasted for -0.8 which can easily be beat and CAD CPI at 8:30 est .Please take this into consideration ** A more aggressive entry can be made if there is either multiple testing of the resistance level or a tight compression below but at it, for at least 8 hrs.
Short
by AGold54
USD/JPY 1:8.6 RR SETUPHere's my scenario for USD/JPY using Multiple Time Frames Analysis : 1. Price Broke H4 Support then retesting the Support (In a Down Trend) 2. I move down to M30, I see Double Top (M) Pattern as my setup 3. Wait the price breaking M Pattern then entry at retest zone 4. - Stoploss would be above M Pattern - Take Profit would be at Daily Support which is also consider as Monthly Support at that time - Move to Breakeven when M30 Makes new Strucuture (LL) You can see my setup obviously in the chart, Hopefully this will help you Happy Trading All :)
Short
by AndyMilliano
1
Comprehensive Trading ProcessDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Consensio: (King) 5% when Price crosses Short Term MA | 10% when Price crosses Medum Term MA | 15% when Short Term MA crosses Medium Term MA | 20% when Medium MA turns over | 25% Price cross Long Term MA & Long MA flattens / turns over| 25% Golden Cross Patterns (Queen): Favorites: hyperwaves, parallel channels, descending triangle, head & shoulders, Wyckoff’s, double bottoms & tops, flags | Least favorite: symmetrical triangle Horizontals (Rook): Horizontals > trend lines Trendline (Bishop): Very powerful when used in combination with Consensio. One of my favorite setups is a trendline break alongside a reversal in Consensio. Parabolic SAR (knight): Best tool I have found for setting / adjusting stop losses. Can also be used as no trade zone. For ex: if wanting to go long and SAR is bearish (above price) then could / should wait for SAR to break before entering. BTCUSDSHORTS (pawn) : If shorts are at / near ATH’ levels then I do not want to be short and will actually have a bias for going long. Funding Rates (pawn): Helps me to understand supply / demand. When shorts are getting expensive then I expect a short squeeze to be around the corner. Contango / Backwardation (pawn): Not a timing indicator. Is used to determine bullish / bearish bias and can help to identify tops / bottoms / support and resistance. Watch the video series and Google “Ugly Old Goat Backwardation” to learn more. TD’ Sequential (pawn): “The trend is your friend until it’s about to end” -Tom Demark | Used to identify when a trend is becoming exhausted which can be very helpful to confirm or deny an entry. Ex: if wanting to go long on a green 7/8/9 then would strongly prefer to enter on correction that is expected to follow. Average Directional Index (pawn): Used to identify when trends are becoming exhausted. When ADX’ reaches resistance / ATH levels then it is likely that the trend is reaching a point of exhaustion Ichimoku Cloud (pawn): Starting to use traditional settings across the board. Crypto settings seem to make the cloud useless when markets are volatile, whereas the traditional settings seem to line up nicely with the MA’s I use for Consensio. Price Action (pawn): Helps me understand when markets are overbought / oversold in the short term. In my experience it is very rare for Bitcoin or Ethereum to move more than 10% in 24 hours. Therefore if I am wanting to enter long and the price is + > / = 7% in the past 24 hours then I will be very cautious and usually wait for a pullback / consolidation. Bollinger Bands (pawn): Very helpful for recognizing when a trading range is coming to an end, which can be very useful for spotting trends that are just starting / about to start. Also like the Bollinger Band % to help illustrate extremes. Relative Strength Index: Divergences can be very useful for understanding short term price movements and potentially full on reversals. When markets are moving I like to check the RSI on the 1h and 4h charts and pay close attention to divergences as indication that a trend could be exhausting. Stochastic Oscillator: Very useful in trending markets that have not gone parabolic. Can be helpful in ranging markets as well, but not nearly as much. Can get some very good signals on the 3d chart. If there is a buy / sell signal then I think it is best to wait for %K and %D to cross the boundary lines before considering it significant. Hierarchy of Indicators The best traders know which indicators are most important at which times. A trader is like a carpenter and the indicators are akin to his toolbelt. Through experience he or she knows which ones to reach for, exactly how they are used and what adjustments could be required for a specific circumstance. It is one thing to understand that an MA rolling over is an indication of a trend reversal. It is entirely another to fully believe it and be able to act on it. Next is understanding which indicators can be disregarded at which times and which should always be taken into account. Above lists my indicators by order of importance. However that is only a default and it will change based on market conditions. For example: if a hyperwave is present then patterns become more important than Consensio and trendlines become more important than horizontals. If market is parabolic then I find the Stochastic useless and will adjust the settings on the RSI to 30. If no trend is present then the Bollinger Band can go from a pawn to the King. It would take much too long to go into all of the different variables I can think of and how it can change the hierarchy of indicators. What is important is that you start to develop the feel for it yourself. The only way I know how to do that is through checking all of them on a regular basis, in all different types of markets (bull, bear, flat, parabolic). Learn -> Practice -> Fail -> Learn -> Practice -> Understand -> Apply -> Internalize -> Believe -> Achieve -> Fail -> Learn Monthly, Weekly & Daily Processes Daily Check daily close every day. If entry or exit was signaled then make sure to get filled within 30 minutes of close. If passing on an entry signal then notate why. Never pass on exit signal. Update trading ledger to reflect any changes (I will be posting my results in the 2 > 20 Bitcoin Trading Challenge). Go through the TA Process listed above on a daily basis (I post my analysis in the Bitcoin' Daily Update). Make sure that you are highly focused during the candle close otherwise the mistakes will compound. I prefer to go to the gym on a daily basis and be disciplined about my diet in order to maintain a high level of focus. I have also committed to a daily hot springs meditation session that has proven extremely valuable over the past year. For anyone that watches Mr. Robot think of Tyrell Wellick chopping wood while confined by himself in the forest. Having a task that is repeatable on a daily basis provides balance, perspective and focus. I find a consistent sleep schedule to be vital in my performance as a trader. I make sure that I am in bed by a certain time so that I wake up feeling refreshed / energized and ready to trade. Weekly On Sunday I will analyze the weekly chart instead of the daily chart. Trading ledger that gets updated daily is used for weekly PnL statements which get done on Saturday morning instead of preparing for traditional markets to close. I keep an excel spreadsheet for each exchange I trade on and include sections for Date, Entry, USD Inventory, BTC Inventory, Withdrawals, Delta, PnL, Unrealized PnL, In position. When I first got into crypto I completely disconnected from my friends and family. To ensure the first doesn't happen again I commit to two social activities per week and for the latter I commit to calling my mother every Sunday. Monthly Review biggest trades from prior month. Dissect entries, exits and position sizes. Everything should be repeatable / explainable in hindsight. If it isn't that means I didn't stick to the guidelines and that is mistake. I cannot expect to be a perfect trader, however I can expect to learn from my mistakes. Monthly Best & Worst Dressed List. After reviewing the trades find the best and worst examples. Print out the charts, notate why they made the list and put them in a binder. In the short term, how I trade is exponentially more important than how much money I make or lose. Therefore if the monthly PnL was subpar but very few mistakes were made on the worst dressed trades then I consider that a huge success and will expect the variance to even out in the medium - long run. Weekly PnL statements is used for monthly PnL statements -It feels really good to make a lot of money and it can feel very frustrating when results do not meet expectations. This is why I believe that is it vital to focus on the process and improving instead of the results. A few good results could be the byproduct of luck. One good / great process will lead to sustainable results as long as you can remain disciplined / diligent. While some may prefer to be lucky rather than good I strongly prefer to put in the effort that it takes to be good. Furthermore luck seems to be attracted to those who put in the consistent effort. Nevertheless I still track short term results because I have bills to pay. Eventually I would like to only pay attention to annual results. “So you want to be a carpenter, do you? Well it takes more than a hammer, boy, you're gonna need blueprints and a will to build, and Straighten your cap! you look like you've been through a war. Wipe that grin off your mug, you got a sturdy frame? Sluggish posture just won't cut it. You're gonna need schooling, and, and, and take notes! And god if I catch you yawning again you're gonna regret ever asking for my help, And dammit you gotta hustle, this is a slacker-free zone And, where's my pencil? go get your hard-hat, here's a nickel, go get us a ruler and a saw and a drill and lots of graph paper!” -Aesop Rock
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Sawcruhteez
5
Near-constant price level ratios and time rangesAfter some time of painting in larger supports and resistances, it occurred to me that they look to be almost equidistant in the logarithmic chart, like a chess board pattern. So I went back and tried to find other larger support and resistance lines which there are: 131.0, 209.0, 306.3, 470.5, 788.0, 1216.0, 1852.5, 2995.2, 4495.4, 5830.9, 8384.7, 11855.1, 19906.9 The percentage increase between these level are in order: 0.60, 0.47, 0.54, 0.67, 0.54, 0.52, 0.62, 0.50, 0.30, 0.44, 0.41, 0.68 and sorted by size: 30%, 41%, 44%, 47%, 50%, 52%, 54%, 54%, 60%, 62%, 67%, 68% The average increase between subsequent levels and its standard deviation is (50 ± 10)%. Next, I tried to find out the time ranges the price stayed in a certain range between two levels. These are in order from oldest to newest and in days: 162, 121, 113, 302, 204, 205, 117, 111, 134, 156, 171 and sorted: 111, 113, 117, 121, 134, 156, 162, 171, 204, 205, 302 It might be argued, that the outlier of 302 days at the bottom in 2015 might actually be two 151 day time ranges right after each after trading in the same price range. With that assumption the average and standard deviation for the time ranges is ( 150 ± 30 ) days. With this analysis, the price action might be actually viewed as a kind of binary walk which every 6 months or so executes a larger +50% or -33% move. Using this assumption, it seems highly likely that Bitcoin won't break the 4500$ mark right now and will stay in the 3k-4.5k range for at least another 3 months. Other things to note: This kind of "charting" might be highly arbitrary for some price ranges and time ranges Sometimes, like in October 2013, May 2017 and especially November 2017, the price skips multiple price ranges in one time-range, so selling after the average 50% increase might miss out many gains. It is eery how the two upwards triangles in the first and second half of 2016 have almost the same time range and percentage increase As Bitcoin trades 24/7, there are no real gaps. The drawn gaps are price-ranges which, on the daily chart, were moved over in one fast bull- or bear-run without any retraces "sufficient" retraces. This kind of classification is also highly arbitrary.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by buijgvb