Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 341)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
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Consensio: Bullish. 50 EMA posturing for golden cross with 200 EMA.
Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | 4h ascending triangle
Horizontals: R: $5,341 | S: 5,150
Trendline: 1h channel
Parabolic SAR: $4,800 and accelerating fast
Futures Curve: Contango
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like an A&E bottom, starting to build significantly over the past few hours
TD’ Sequential: Daily G4 | Weekly just closed a perfected G9
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bullish
Relative Strength Index: Testing all time highs
Average Directional Index: Weekly still trending down. Daily is very bullish
Price Action: 24h: +6.05% | 2w: +38% | 1m: +39.08%
Bollinger Bands: Hugging the top band
Stochastic Oscillator: Weekly entering overbought territory
Summary: It has been a very long time since we have seen a weekly candle like this!
Markets are moving and it is time to pay close attention but we do not want to get ahead of ourselves. The weekly just closed a perfected green 9 and there is major resistance overhead. It starts getting heavy around $5,600 and it will become much bigger at $5,800.
If prices get to that area while being this overbought then it will be the best selling opportunity of the year. That being said I did enter a small long this afternoon at $5,190 when the price confirmed the ascending triangle. The target from the triangle is $5,669 which is right in line with where horizontal resistance is marked.
If we reach that target then I will be taking full profit and looking to go short. Despite entering long I have market this update as neutral because I wasn’t to post it in time. At $5,190 the risk:reward was slightly less than 1:2 and now the price is testing $5,300. That makes it far less attractive.
If you missed out on this current pump then make up for it by preparing to sell very soon. If we rally to $5,600 - $5,800 then I do not expect those prices to last for long. The market will be extremely overbought at major resistance and that usually results in a strong / fast reaction. The risk:reward of opening a short in that area will be at least 1:5.
Timeframe
FTSE MIB Elliott Wave Analysis UpdateThe FTSE MIB has consolidated the double WXY correction of Minor grade that we were following. The longer-term scenario has affirmed the conclusion of the bearish movement started in May 2018 and the structure that seems to be forming is that of a triangle ABCDE. Therefore the main scenario is that of a triple correction of WXYXZ Minor grade, agreeding with the bull market scenario in the American markets. The Minor correction that has been formed so far is a double correction, composed of a flat (W), an expanding triangle (X) and a zig zag (Y). Inside we can highlight the following Fibonacci ratios: X = 0.382 * W and Y = 1.618 * W. Within Y, the sub-wave B retraced the 0.382 of A and C ended on level 0.618 of A. Within C Minute: 3 = 2.618 * 1 and 5 = 0.5 * 1. Currently, we are inside the first sub-wave of X Minor. From the central graph we note that the correction has already touched the 0.236 level from which it rebounded. At least another short-term move is expected in the short term before the end of the first sub-wave of X Minor.
BTCUSDT H4 Uptrend ContinuationThe pair have a good uptrend run since it's sharp decline on 23 Feb 2019. I am seeing it to continue somemore if it breaks and closes above the immediate resistance line (blue dotted line). Major supply level at 4162.
If price comes down to my prz levels between 3892 - 3912 I am interested to take a long position. Take note these harmonics completion levels are also near the bottom of the trend channel. For those who studies Supply and Demand will know this range is around the Demand Level as well.
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Up, Up & away for USDCADI use multi-frame technical analysis to support my set-ups as higher time-frames are always more reliable. Therefore, lets look at UC by starting on the monthly time frame.
Monthly time-frame:
The ascending trendline, indicates that the current trend is bullish, thus looking for longs will be better than shorts
Weekly time-frame:
When dropping down to the weekly time-frame, it can be seen that the pair is moving in an ascending channel, due to its consecutive higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). further approving that looking for longs will be better than entering any short trade.
daily time-frame:
The last daily candlestick in the yellow bubble (15/03), indicated a reversal of the downtrend that the pair was currently in from the weekly key level 1.34500 to the monthly key level 1.33250. therefore a long position is now finally presenting itself.
Explanation for long-prediction:
1. the pair is showing an uptrend on both the monthly and weekly timeframes (higher time frames = more reliable & never trade against the trend)
2. the reversal candle around the resistance-turned-support key level 1.33250
3. last daily closure indicated a reversal in trend
long trade setup:
in the long term, i predict the pair reaching the 1.38750 (trendline), or the next major monthly key level 1.40000
however, in the short term, multiple TP's will be placed at the upcoming weekly and monthly key levels of
1.34500, 1.36500 and the final TP (that of the long term prediction)
i will look for an entry on the 4hr time frame, once it rejects the 1.33250 region again.
risk:reward ratio is within my trading plan.
EUR/USD: Weekly overview! Timelines and technical details!#SellHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to a weekly overview of Euro / US Dollar.
It`s been very boring during the past weeks and the market had to choose a path
fighting inside a range of the wedge.
Neither EURO or USD had the final say yet but it looks like the EURO is going to loose this fight since
we`ve seen another attempt to break out of the range and stopped at the previous support which could be an
evidence of an S&R-Flip.
The previous two weeks do look like a desperate "try hard" of the bulls to push the euro towards north but did not even make
it to the strong tested resistance at 1.14525.
The defense of team bulls at yard 1.13 was very strong but at the end not good enough to prevent team bears to
shot the next goal.
The big picture shows an S/H/S-Pattern which should be a strong evidence for another sell-off after this breakout
towards parity down to a possible price of 1.06.
Timelines:
The timelines are pretty accurate and harmonic and do indicate time for a downtrend.
Comparing the divergences of them do show us a common happening.
During a trend we`ve seen at least 2 waves with a "settlement" with Wave A which indicates the time of the primary trend.
The right shoulder shows a settlement of Wave B, Alpha and Beta and indicates a correction of Wave A.
Amplitude and lenght are pretty accurate.
After that correction we`ve see a harmonic agreement of Wave A, B and alpha.
The next attempt to correct indicated by the Alpha-Wave did not get its support of Wave B anymore and wasn`t able to break out of the wedge.
This divergence often confirms the weakness of the opposite direction of the Wave A + Wave B combination.
Right now we will head into an another "agreement" of all waves.
Overall we see a very bearish chart and can expect a new sell-off to start soon in ordewr to complete the S/H/S-Pattern.
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Peace and good trades
Irasor
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S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis UpdateThe scenario dictated by Elliott Wave Theory remains bullish. In particular, as in the last update, the American index is in Intermediate wave 3, but with the difference that the sub-wave 3 seems to have ended. The latter has an extension greater than that of Minor 1, this will allow wave 5 to be longer than 3. The main scenario implements the wave formation of Minor 4 and its sub-wave C. On the graph central, the lower trend line of the channel should act as a dynamic support and target of Minor 4. Moreover, respecting the principle of alternation since wave 2 was a zig zag, now wave 4 seems to be a flat, or at least a lateral correction like a triangle.
GBPJPY outlook: Short term & Long term view.1W:
GBPJPY broke out of a descending trend line last week, exposing the pair to further potential upside movement.
A retest of the trend line may occur before price starts to increase.
4H:
On the 4H chart we can see price broke and closed below a short term ascending trend line, opening up possibility for a short term decline in price.
Trading plan:
Going into the week ahead we would like to sell the pair short-term upon a retest of the broken 4H trend line & a bearish 4H candle close.
We would then wait for bullish price action signal when price reaches the reversal zone & find entries to long-term buy trades.
Be aware of any upcoming high impact economic news for GBP & JPY. Brexit speeches/news which may cause large spikes.
Updates will be posted as this trade plays out.
Pattern Analysis; incorporating timeframes (USOIL)Understanding trends within a pattern gives analysts the ability to better understand sentiment and directional pressure.
In this example, pattern extremities were highlighted. Then, on a lower timeframe, trends within said pattern drawn.
Overlaying timeframes is a necessary part of a complete analysis, and a complete commodity analysis can help piece together economic factors affecting commodity-sensitive currencies such as CAD and AUD.
Channel Analysis (USDCAD)Using proximal and distal lines to mark channel extremities takes emotion and guess-work out of swing trading! Furthermore, using multiple timeframes allows for more accurate timing and thus more control over risk/reward.
As can be seen here, proximal and distal lines were used to highlight reversal areas on both the top and bottom of the channel. Then, using a smaller timeframe, an area of price-interest was highlighted to get a better understanding of direction.
Outlook: Bullish to 1.37~
Void if price <1.31~
GBPNZD H1 Bearish BatH1 Bearish Bat Harmonics Pattern
The pattern will complete at point D however I am entering trade on a deeper price represented by the black dotted line. Reason for this is because this is GBPNZD - GBP cross pair and tend to be more volatile and higher broker spread.
I saw bigger Bullish Harmonics Patterns on H4 and Daily on the Higher timeframe and gave me added reason to short this pair at this level.
Entry: 1.8965
SL: 1.9032 (-67pips)
TP1: 1.8846 (+119pips)
TP2: 1.8780 (+185pips)
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GER30 Semi-MarkUpI took a quick glance at the GER30. If price breaks the 11066 price level (looks like it's about to) I would look to go long at the 10965 price point. That's if everything else aligns accordingly. I would take profit at the 11044 price point. *DISCLAIMER* THESE ARE JUST MY HUMBLE OPINIONS. NOT MEANT TO BE TAKEN AS TRADING ADVICE
EURUSD MarkUpThis is my EURUSD mark up. I'll follow these zones 'til Feb. 15th, 2019. Color coded so there's no confusion since I use multiple time frames. I could go in depth with how I view my charts, but we're all different when it comes to trading. However, I love feedback as long as it's not negative.
EURJPY MarkUp UpdateFresh DZ (124.988-124.858) formed on the 1H. Looks as if price is heading in the direction of the zone that was spotted earlier. If so, I would look to go long if zone is "respected". However, if a breakthrough occur I would look for a reaction in price around the 124.720-124.707 region.
GBPCHF - New Daily Trend??1M - We saw last month close with a strong bullish engulfing bar off of a historical support level. This is a key level that price action has failed to break below numerous times. It is all time lows for GBPCHF and a strong rejection off of this level could mean we may see price action continue higher over the next couple of months.
1W - After a double bottom, price has rallied up over the past few weeks and has now broken some key levels. We are currently seeing price retesting the weekly 50 ema and some horizontal S/R. If we get a higher low form at this area, it could be confirming a bullish trend continuation based on the monthly timeframe.
1D - Recently a lot of bullish pressure has come in and we currently have a nice pullback retesting some S/R and the daily 20 ema. Based on previous testing, the 20 ema seems to act as great dynamic S/R when there is pressure coming from the higher timeframes (monthly chart specifically). We may see a new daily bullish trend develop once we get a confirmed higher low around this area.
Summary - This is a longer term position that has bullish indications from the daily all the way to the monthly chart. Based on everything that we are currently seeing, we could see bullish pressure come in on this pair over the next couple of months. Main target is the next S/R level on the weekly chart and a new higher high. This would still be well below the monthly 50 ema too, so we would consider it to be a conservative target for this pair. The main concern is the daily S/R zone around the recent high. We will be keeping an eye on how price reacts to this area.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 320)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P closed > S & M MA but instantly reversed to the downside. L MA still bearish
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel | Symmetrical Triangle
Horizontals: S: $3,377 | R: $3,472
Trendline: Symmetrical triangle inside bear channel
Parabolic SAR: $3,336
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 1.90% spread
BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like they are pulling back for a 21,650 retest
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0126%
TD’ Sequential: R4 | 3D just closed R9
Ichimoku Cloud: Paying attention to how the Tenkan-Sen just angled down sharply.
Relative Strength Index: Continuing to trend down below 50
Average Directional Index: Still resisting below 25
Price Action: 24h: -0.1% | 2w: -3.2% | 1m: -13.9%
Bollinger Bands: Trending down, squeezing with price below MA. As bearish as it gets.
Stochastic Oscillator: D threatening to recross bullish (always find it amazing when it does this on bearish price action) 3D is making bullish cross and that has been a very good indicator in this bear market.
Summary: I feel confident that volatility is coming in the next 24 hours. The violent reaction following today’s close is what makes me feel so certain. The daily closed at $3,429 and then there was an immediate influx of selling volume.
The high volume combined with the bearish wick is something that I pay very close attention to. Either support will hold strong and provide the foundation for a significant bounce, or it will tear right through the support and go for a retest of prior lows.
It is still too early to induce which direction is most likely from here, however I do not think that will remain the case when it comes time for tomorrow’s daily update. The most important chart to me is still the LTCBTCSHORTS which continue to create new all time highs.
That looks like very low hanging fruit to me for someone with enough money to execute a short squeeze. If that happens then I believe in will lead the entire crypto market into a 1+ month dead cat bounce up to the $5,200 - $5,800 area.
The 3D Stochastic is provided a nice confirmation of that bias. Look for yourself at how well that signal has worked throughout this bear market! The 3D red 9 is another good confirmation that a bounce is coming.
GBPCAD 500+ pip move potentialGBP has been dominating all week and is, imho, overextended.
GBPCAD is now at a Daily Resistance level that has been rejected 3 out of the last 4 times (75%)
Need to see compression on the 60 min chart below the resistance level and then
a strong bearish candle for entry.
Entry = not yet ???
the stop will be 10 pips (+2 for spread above the last swing high)
PT = 1.6668
* both sides of this pair have news release that will effect this trade. GBP retail sales at 4:30 est.which is forecasted for -0.8 which can easily be beat
and CAD CPI at 8:30 est .Please take this into consideration
** A more aggressive entry can be made if there is either multiple testing of the resistance level
or a tight compression below but at it, for at least 8 hrs.