BTC bottoming and in consolidation until SEP 2019Based on -77.7% retracement
2218 bottom
1452 alternative bottom
Consolidation timeline: July 2018--SEP 2019
14 month negative momentum profile from 2014:
Based on the length of time the negative momentum persisted in 2014-2015. Extrapolated forward to the time momentum first went negative on 25 June 2018, + 14 months = ~September 2019. Just gives an idea of how long the consolidation might last. Not a prediction or guaranteed to happen.
Timeframe
CHFJPY Buy @113.3CURRENCY: CHFJPY
ENTRY: BUY @ 113.3
MONTHLY TREND: BUY
WEEKLY TREND: BUY
DAILY TREND BUY
ANALYSIS: Alignment on Monthly, Weekly, Daily Trends, Enter at 8 Hour Bollinger
VALID PERIOD: 64 Hours or if daily trend shift
STOP LOSS: No Stop Loss, exit according to Valid Period positive or negative
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 275)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: “we appear to be creating a new bear trend and I am feeling skittish . Moved my stop to breakeven well before my guidelines suggest.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778
Patterns: Bear channel (4h) | Is that a 4h c&h off the bottom of the channel?
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,70 & $3,858 | R: $4,035
BTCUSDSHORTS: After closing outside trend resistance we quickly retracted > 50% and closed back below which is a strong indication of a trap.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0352%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Price close below + sell signal with 9 MA
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Two candles closed below but 9 is still trending up
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down
Overall trend: Yet again the short and medium are having trouble making up their mind while the long is in a serious bear trend. Indicates no trade zone for me and suggests that we will range in a Wyckoff manner for another 1-2 weeks until we retest the 33 MA around $4K.
Volume: Seems to be more buyers than sellers < $3,800 and more sellers than buyers > $4,000. Another indication that further consolidation is necessary. Look at the weekly selling volume! 2nd only to the selloff on Feb 4th.
FIB’s: Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Bullish spinning top
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud is very interesting to me, showing thick resistance from $3,900 - $4,000. Makes me wonder if you could make a similar indicator for support to indicate which is thinning out faster. Ex: cloud on top and cloud on bottom. Used for ranging markets, while the traditional cloud is only useful in trending markets.
TD’ Sequential: Daily & weekly r4
Visible Range: High volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 holding as resistance. Surprised we haven’t fallen through the gap down to $2,977
Price action: 24h: +1.28%
Bollinger Bands: Last two candles are entirely below the bottom weekly band. Daily MA as coming down fast and may provide resistance before my 33 MA.
Trendline: 4h channel we looked at yesterday is holding as support and so far price is resisting somewhere around the median instead of retesting the top end.
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Turning up after price was reluctant to stay below. Was bearish for 2 days and appears to be turning around
Parabolic SAR: $3,586
RSI: Could be finding support at 30. Also could be creating a h&s.
Stochastic: Did a great job yesterday crossing bullish when we selling off.
Last Day Rule: Trigger day for bulls: <$3,476 | Trigger day for bears: > $4,430
Summary: Yet again the short and medium are having trouble making up their mind while the long is in a serious bear trend. Indicates no trade zone for me and suggests that we will range in a Wyckoff manner for another 1-2 weeks until we retest the 33 MA around $4K. I will also be watching the Bollinger Band MA to act as resistance before the 33 MA is able to.
When the price gets choppy after a selloff and works it way towards bearish trending MA’s then high probability positions can usually be found. My guidelines triggered a full short entry with a close below the 4 MA, 9 MA, 33 MA & a bearish crossovers with all of them.
However the stop loss was not favorable and I still think it is two early. I am watching for continued chop and will hope to enter at a better price, better risk ratio or hopefully both.
A good example is the current ADA setup.
Broke down a descending triangle, formed a bear flag / channel as it cleanly retested. Consensio just signaled the same full entry is outlined above in Bitcoins close. Today is also a red 2 that quickly fell below a red 1. It also appears to have broken down a key psychological level of 1,000 sats.
All that being said I could be wrong on both accounts. It impossible to know / control the direction or timing, However it is possible to know and control the pot odds.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 273)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: Expecting 1-4 month bounce due to the TD Sequential on the 31d chart, along with short term trends turning bullish
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Long LTCBTC from 0.00812
Patterns: Peter Brandt labeled this in i h&s and I can’t say I disagree. 4h symmetrical triangle. The 1h c&h from yesterday’s post failed to confirm. Now it looks like it could be forming a down trend
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4.046 & $3,875 | R: $4,181
BTCUSDSHORTS: Shooting star at resistance + close below 4 MA
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0715%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Closed below and trending down
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Close above and trending up
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down at $5,239
Overall trend: Clear no trade zone for me due to short and medium trends disagreeing
Volume: Continues to decrease as we consolidate
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Bearish doji
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily Tenken-Sen & Kijun-Sen are hovering right around the 33 MA | 4h continues to hold as support
TD’ Sequential: Daily r2 = r1
Visible Range: Testing high volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 and finding resistance
Price action: 24h = -3.94%
Bollinger Bands: MA is coming down fast. Now it’s at $4,486
Trendline: Higher lows on the daily could be the start of new trendline
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bearish
Parabolic SAR: $3,546
RSI: Failed to get oversold on the weekly
Stochastic: Bullish recross
Last Day Rule: Waiting to trade above $4,384 for trigger day
Summary: It is starting to look more and more like we will pullback for a retest of $3,750. The higher volume that we saw in the area last time along with the daily parabolic SAR lead me to believe that we will double bottom before bouncing, something like what was outlined in day 270.
I like the risk reward of a long in that area. Profit target would be the 33 MA, which is expected to be around $5,000. Stop loss would be slightly under the parabolic SAR at $3,524 for a 5.53:1 reward to risk ratio.
It is entirely possible that we continue to fall from here without getting a bounce, however I do not like the risk:reward on a short at these levels and I am going to pass on the sell signals in hopes to re open ~33% > the current prices.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 272)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: “I am still expecting a retest of $3,750 support before getting a bounce.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Long LTCBTC from 0.00812
Patterns: 1h c&h
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,900 R: $4,250
BTCUSDSHORTS: Hanging man + shooting star at trend and horizontal resistance
Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Barely closed below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Flattening out nicely
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): At $5,319 and trending down
Overall trend: Long term is very bearish. Short and medium and turning bullish. With the close above the 9 MA I expect the 34 to get retested
Volume: Weak buying volume around half of the MA
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Bearish marubozu closed on the monthly
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h acting as clean resistance
TD’ Sequential: 31d chart is on a perfected 9. It has been brought up in Tone’s chat that this is preferable to the Monthly. It closes on Dec 7th. This mornings rally topped on a perfected 9 (1h).
Visible Range: Nobody wants to talk about the enormous node at $1,000
Price action: 24h: +5.03%
Bollinger Bands: If you don’t want to talk about the node at $1,000 then you definitely don’t want to see the bottom band on the 31 day chart.
Trendline: Broke trendline didn’t quite get retested.
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) bullish | On the other side of the token the 31 day chart is threatening to close below the 33 MA for the second time ever. Last time was Jan 1, 2015
Parabolic SAR: Daily is at $3,511
RSI: Weekly is bouncing from 30. We we so close to getting oversold and capitulating.
Stochastic: 31d is entering oversold territory
Last Day Rule: Yesterday was the setup day, think I missed that yesterday. Trigger would be trading below Nov 30ths close.
Summary: While analyzing the longer term charts I got a little sad. It looks like we were very close to finding a bottom and now I have started to change my outlook significantly. The main reason I say that is because we did not capitulate and now I am expecting a bounce that could take 1-4 months.
I think this bounce could be a lot sharper than most people expect and that is because I’m expecting a major breakdown in alts. A flight to safety could pump BTC back above $6,000 before it eventually creates a new low below $3,500.
I’m not saying this is what I expect, I am saying that this is what I am prepared for over the next 1 - 4 months.
Trading against the trend is extremely dangerous, so if I don’t get my ideal long entry then I will have no problem passing on it and waiting to re enter my short positions. The risk:reward is not attractive on a long at all right now.
The target I would use is the 33 day MA. It is at $5,300 but will probably be closer to $5,000 if we retest it ( moves down every day). The tightest stop loss I would use is the daily SAR at $3,513. The way I see it the risk:reward is 1:1.18 and I do not put my money at risk for those odds even when I’m trading with the trend.
Now I should probably explain the LTC long. Not it's not a typo, it's actually a sweet set! I trade the daily chart and the 9 & 33 MA's are getting a golden cross while today closed above the 4 MA. It also appears to be breaking the bear trendline which is a pretty reliable signal in and of itself.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 268)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: "Until then I am looking to short alts vs BTC and I am preparing to buy back spot BTC (time horizon is > 2 years)."
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434
Patterns: Symmetrical triangle inside a bear channel (4h)
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,542 | R: $4,066
BTCUSDSHORTS: At trend resistance slightly below my alert. Very interesting to see if we get a short sqeeze here.
Funding Rates: Longs receives 0.115% (10X the normal rate)
Short term trend (4 day MA): Found resistance below on the close indicating that a long is unwarranted right now based on Consensio.
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Right in line with the top of the bear channel
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Key area of resistance for me when we get a bounce (not saying it will be here, am saying that is dialed in to catch the top of bounces)
Overall trend: Bear
Volume: Largest volume was November 20th, watch for the bottom of that candle to be a key area of resistance on a bounce
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $,4056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Hammer. Very important how this candle responds. Opening and staying above the top of the body is bullish. Breaking down the bottom of the body is bearish.
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud was clean resistance and is thick from here to $3,960
TD’ Sequential: Current candle is price flipping
Visible Range: Broke down the bottom of the high volume node (HVN) at $3,877. Refilling the gap below is to be expected. Next HVN = $3,077
Price action: 24h: +2%
Bollinger Bands: Starting to come off the bottom band. Watch for a return to the MA.
Trendline: Trendline from symmetrical triangle (blue) is right under the 34 MA (4h chart) at $3,900. The top of the bear channel = $4,120
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Starting to flatten after trending down hard
Parabolic SAR: $4,412
RSI: See a small bull div’ following the high volume selloff.
Stochastic: Was finally trying to get up and now it looks like it wants to recross again
Last Day Rule: Watching for close above $4,112 for setup day.
Summary: If we can breakthrough the 4h bear trend and support a throwback then it would be a very good sign of an incoming bounce. The daily close below the 4 MA puts me in a no long zone until a candle closes above.
There are a lot of indicators showing a short term bounce to $5,000 or above, however there are some very strong indicators that say it is too soon to buy. There is too much resistance and momentum for the 14 day trend that started on November 14th.
This is a clear no trade zone for me and I will leave my small buy orders set at $2,700 - $3,000 (greater than 2 year time horizon).
In the mean time I continue to expect alts to start falling like dominos. I have been holding my EOS:BTC short in the red for over a week. It feels great to finally see a red candle close below horizontal support. Entering a short on a retest for resistance looks like a good play to me.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 258)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis : Reiterated views from previous post and warned about alts pumping before falling off a cliff
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32
Patterns: 4h bear pennant with $4,557 target
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,200 | R: $5,518
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back hard from shooting star
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0263% | Was not expecting to see that based on the BTCUSDSHORT’ chart. Makes me wonder where all these shorts are? According to blockchainwhispers.com the long:short ratio is 54:46 therefore I cannot understand why shorts are paying longs. If anyone knows please leave a comment!
Looking at 4h trends today
Short term trend (3 day MA): Price recently closed below
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Recent sell signal with 3 crossing 8
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Angled down sharply, will be apart of resistance cluster if we bounce to $6,000
Overall trend: bear
Volume: Volume has died down following the spike, another volume spike should be following soon.
FIB’s: High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th') 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224
Candlestick analysis: Failing to bounce off high volume dragonfly is very bearish
Ichimoku Cloud: Thick 1 hour cloud shows strong resistance at $5,570 - $5,780
TD’ Sequential: Daily red 9
Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $5,000 due to the gap in volume
Price action: 24h: -0.75% | 2w: -12.97% | 1m: -14.42%
Bollinger Bands: Watching for price to stick to bottom band after closing outside
Trendline: Bear pennant
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: After breaking all of the down fractals in 2018 we found support above the next one down ($5,122)
RSI: All time low on daily. Watching closely for divergence
Stochastic: Daily looks like it is recrossing bearish
Summary: The first consolidation after a move is often redistribution (or reaccumulation) and it is starting to look like BTC’ will following that pattern instead of bouncing to retest $6,000 for resistance.
The 4h chart is forming a bear pennant with a $4,350 target. That will confirm with a close below the previous candle ($5,410 on USD exchanges).That would also give the daily chart a chance to form the bull div’ that I have been watching for.
That also lines up very nicely with my prediction that $5,000 will breakdown without providing a bounce due to the gap in volume. If that happens then $4,200 - $4,500 would be very likely to provide support.
If all goes according to plan then I will be closing my shorts in that area and looking to open small longs. In the meantime I am stalking alt’s looking for short positions. EOS’, LTC’, XRP’ and TRX’ are at the very top of my list and I think the next 1-2 days will provide some prime entries.
EURCAD 60 Cloud BreakoutMonthly direction is down
Daily is in the Sell zone
All requirements are met for a cloud breakout;
1. Have a cloud breakout
2. Have a TK cross
3. The Chikou is below price
4. Future kumo is bearish
2 Potential entries:
First, the breakout entry is 6 pips below the breakout candle (however, since the next candle was a little lower I used that low of 1.4916);
Breakout Entry = 1.4910
Stop = 10 pips + 2 for spread above the Senkou B at 1.4965 = 1.4977
Risk = 67 pips
Second, Pullback trade:
Their is a very strong Resistance level at 1.4956 (blue line) which is a great place to place a limit order
Entry = 1.4956
Stop = 1.4977
Risk = 21 pips
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 256)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / Death cross with 9 and 34 MA’s, close below symmetrical triangle and a breakdown of horizontal support triggered a full entry
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 and short ETH:USD from $205.20
Patterns: $5,600 target from symmetrical triangle was hit within 48 hours of breakdown
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,522 | R: $5,875 - $6,150
BTCUSDSHORTS: Bouncing hard and fast but still plenty of room to go before resistance
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.224% (wow!)
Short term trend (3 day MA): bearish
Medium term trend (8 day MA): bearish
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): bearish
Overall trend: Death cross provided an ideal short entry yesterday evening.
Volume: Finally!!!! If anyone tries to say that this is a bear trap / shakeout before breakout then refer them to the daily volume. When using a combo of the 5 major USD exchanges this is the highest we have seen in ~ 3 months.
FIB’s: (High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th')
Candlestick analysis: 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h appears to be lining up with my horizontal resistance at $5,868
TD’ Sequential: Today closed a red 7 and we just opened a red 8
Visible Range: Gap in volume at $5,000 makes me think there will not be the support there that most expect
Price action: 24h: -10.24% | 2w: -10.59% | 1m: -9.28%
Bollinger Bands: Dat' bulge we have all been waiting for : )
Trendline: Connect top of May 5th to top of July 24th. I expect this to be the top of the down trend.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Took out every last down fractal from 2018
RSI: Record low! High alert for bearish divergence. One one other time daily RSI was < 19.6 and a 18.32% bounce followed. If that happens again then price would rally to $6,332 (probably while alts have a flight to safety) and that would create a very similar bear trap that we saw in 2014 - 2015.
Stochastic: Monthly is falling into oversold territory. Monthly buy signal + RSI < 45 will be strong indicators of the bottom. Should be combined with weekly RSI < 30. All things to pay close attention to.
Summary: Already took profit on 25% of my BTC’ and ETH’ shorts due to RSI reaching record lows along with the daily TD 8 opening (will often get a 1-4 candle correction on a 7 or an 8 instead of a 9).
Now I am preparing for three options: a bounce that retests $5,868 - $6,150 for resistance. If that happens then I will be considering it the highest probability entry of the year. I expect there to be so big volume waiting to exit their longs at that price range.
Nevertheless I am paying close attention to the bear trap that followed the support breakdown in the 2014 - 2015 bubble (see charts above). The markets have a strong propensity to rekt both bulls and bears whenever possible. A short term bounce back to $6,300 would do exactly that and it is something to prepare for.
The main catalyst that could cause that is a flight from safety out of alts and back into BTC’. Could also see another pump caused by traders exiting Tether. That premium is back to 5% and has been inflating the price on USDT exchanges.
The last option I am watching for is a divergence in the daily RSI like the one that followed the last time it reached < 19.6. If that happens then I plan on exiting 80% - 100% of my position with the intention to re open at 10% - 18% higher.
EURJPY Potential Cloud BreakoutPotential cloud Breakout
The Monthly direction is down
Pair is in the Sell zone on the Daily
and is at major resistance levels
Since this trade is several hours away from a
set-up I can not provide specific order details
That said there is 2 ways to enter this trade:
First, on a 60 min close below the Daily Kejun Sen (blue line)
Second would be a cloud breakout satisfying all the criteria;
1) a Cloud breakout
2) A TK cross
3) The Chikou is below price
4. A future Kumo twist
** Also the close of the breakout candle must close below the Daily Kejun Sen
Possible USD/CAD Short PositionSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Chart time frame - H8
Timeframe - 1-2 weeks
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
Currency Pair creating a Double Top. USD will move north again over the next couple of weeks which will help line up the trade
B – Beliefs
Market will be rejected at @1.33314 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 1.31 level.
FX:USDCAD
Trade Management
Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation
Stop Loss @ 1.341
Target @1.31
Risk/Reward @ 3:1
Happy trading. Will let you know closer to the time if or when executed
CHFJPY 60 Cloud BreakoutMonthly and Daily direction is down and have met a ll the requirements for a Cloud Breakout:
1. Have a break below the Cloud.
2. Have a TK cross
3. The Chikou is below price
4. The future Kumo is bearish
2 Potential entries for this trade:
First; The Breakout trade. Entry is 4 pips below the low of the Breakout candle (in this case we have to adjust for round number support)
Entry = 112.98
Stop = 113.45
Risk = 47 pips
PT = 3xR = 141 pips = 111.57
Second: a Pullback to the 60 Kejun Sen at 113.31 (turquise line on chart) This entry while providing better risk/reward decreases the probability of success.
Entry: 113.31
Stop 113.45
Risk = 14 pips
PT = 10xR = 140 = 111.91
** The Blue line on the chart is the Daily Kejun Sen and represents a major Support/Resistance level