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AUDJPY - short at H4 (Symmetry Wave)Look left, We have two zones for a sell. 1. Group wave daily I, II, III... Now the AUDJPY is at the wave V go to wave VI. 2. Group wave H4 (1), (2), (3)... Now she is at the wave (3) to wave (4) and she reaches the Potential zone of group wave (80-100% the magnitude). Plan: Trade 1: wait for a signal at the smaller H1, 30 minutes ... * Invalid is at 120% Trade 2: When she reaches zone for a sell of group wave Daily, wait for a signal at the smaller H1, 30 minutes ... * Invalid is at 120% Target 1: is at 61.8 Fibonacci Target 2: is at 80 Fibonacci
Short
by dinhchien
2
DE30EUR - Down again at H1Look left, the downtrend signal is activated (drop beyond 120% of the biggest Retracement of the uptrend) Two group waves for sell: 1. At the H4 timeframe (group waves (1)(2)(3)...). 2. At the H1 timeframe (group waves 1,2,3...). Early entry: 80% Fibonacci (80/20% rule) Reasonable entry: Sell limited at 90-100% Fibonacci Late entry: Wait to signal at the smaller timeframe (new price action, double top, head&shouder...) The stop loss is at 120% Fibonacci Extension. When DE30EUR down again, should be moving the stop loss to accord the next rule symmetry wave of the downtrend. Plan: Move to the stop-loss at 80% of the biggest retracement of the Uptrend (group wave Weekly (I)(II)(III)... Good luck with All.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by dinhchien
4
GBPAUD - long after break daily group waveLook left the group wave weekly (I) (II) (III) (IV) (V) (VI) is at Uptrend because wave (VI) wasn't beyond 120% of weekly resistance (1.72039), then She goes up and passes over 120% Fibonacci extension (1.79902) of group wave Daily I, II, III, IV. Thus I predict he will go follow the weekly trend. The group wave Daily have to restart count wave, now she is at wave I. At the present, GBPAUD has a rule at group wave H4 (1) (2) (3). We should wait he drop at zone wave (4) for Buy. If GBPAUD drops beyond 1.7768 he will go down with previous Daily magnitude (1.7060 - 1.73811) zone of group Daily wave II Thanks for look my ideas. Have a nice weekend.
Long
by dinhchien
Security - Version 2 vs. Version 3Visualising the difference. Let's take a look at the security function, the differences between version 3 and version 2, and hopefully help give people a better understanding of how these work. As many will know there are differences in how version 2 and version 3 handle the "security()" function. Confusion around the mechanics of this function can lead to headaches for people testing scripts and trying to intuit how it works. So we’re just going to run through some examples to give a visual along with some explanations. First, let’s look at 2 instances of the following code, one in version 2, one in version 3. //@version=2 study("My Script", overlay=false) num = security(tickerid, "60", n) bgcolor(num%2==0?orange:na) plot(num) This will use the built in variable “n” on the 60 minute timeframe using the security function. The variable “n” assigns each bar a sequential number. We will use a 5 minute resolution for our chart and plot the 60minute bar number and change the background color to orange if the bar number is an even number. Let’s see how that looks. So there’s 2 important points to mention here. The first is that the highlighted areas are almost exact opposites to each other. This is because in version 3 the security function uses the value of the previous bar when looking back at historical data. So in our example, at the time that version 2 painted the 14454 bar, that was the correct bar number. In version 3, it was using the previous bar of 14453. So with historical data version 3 essentially has 1 bar of lag. This is to avoid issues of the bar using “future data”, which we will show an example of shortly. The second thing to note is the time at which the bar begins. Using the above example again, notice that the beginning of the new 60min bar has a 1 bar difference on the current timeframe. In version 2 the new bar starts at exactly 09:00, whereas in version 3 it starts at 08:55. Note that this is because we are using the 5 minute chart, if we were using a 3 minute chart the version 3 bar would begin at 08:57, or a 15 minute chart would begin at 08:45. Why? Well, perhaps the following chart will help explain. We will use the following simple bit of code that again use a 5min chart and plot the 60min high value. The purple line is the code in version 2, the green line is the code in version 3. h = security(tickerid, "60", high) plot(h) There’s a lot going on here but we’ll go through it step by step. The first thing to notice to make sense of this picture is that the green bar is exactly the same as the purple bar, but just shifted to the right. This is the lag we mentioned, because the green bar (version 3) is using the value from the previous 60 min period. Now, notice the red circled areas. These areas show the beginning of the new bar for version 3 and the end value of the bar for version 2. **In version 3, the new bar begins as soon as we know the final value of the previous bar.** So using our first chart example, the final closing value of the 08:00 – 09:00 period is the closing value of the 08:55 bar (on 5min chart), so the 08:55 value is where the new version 3 bar begins. The version 2 bar uses future data as default. You can see examples of this where the orange ellipses are on the chart above. Remember, the purple line is charting the high of the current period, but with version 2 the high of that hour is painted on the chart before that highest value is reached, as highlighted in orange. Using the high value from our security function at any of those highlighted points would give us inaccurate back testing results because our indicator would essentially be looking into the future. So what are the practical implications of this? Well, it means if you’re using version 2 you’re going to get inaccurate back test results because of the future data issue, which is the main reason this was changed for version 3. If you’re using version 3, however, that’s not a magical fix either. For instance if you’re using an hourly chart and pulling the daily data with the security function, the “daily” value last Wednesday will actually be using the values from last Tuesday. So with our examples of using the period “high”, it will be possible for the current hourly high to be above the security data’s daily high, because it’s using the previous day high. Difference between real time and historical data Everything we’ve talked about so far has been dealing with historical data. Real time data for both version 2 and version 3 work the same way and work correctly. That is to say if you’re using a 5min chart and pull the data from the hourly with security, then the real time data from the security function will match the real time data from an hourly chart. But how does that work if the version 3 data uses the value from the previous period? Well, as soon as you plot security values in a chart you’ll notice that the newest bar value will change. As soon as new data starts getting painted it will switch from the previous period’s value to the current value. For example, this is a minute chart plotting the 3 minute high via the security function. Purple values are version 2, green are version 3, and you’ll see as soon as we hit real time data (when we clicked “add to chart”, signified by the pink dotted line) the 2 are identical. The version 3 data switches from lagging by 1 period to real time, and the version 2 line stops using future data. But this is where repainting comes into play. This is the same chart moments later, after refreshing the indicators. Now they will again show both indicators in their historical form. The version 2 purple line is using future data again, and the version 3 green line is lagging again. Simply using version 3 is not enough to avoid repainting, if that’s what you’re trying to do. So what do we do? Well, how you deal with this depends on what you’re trying to do. What I’ve tried to do is explain exactly how it’s behaving and why. How you then use that is up to you. There’s nothing “wrong” about any of this data or behaviour as long as you understand what’s happening. For those of you trying to match up automation with back testing or just current values with back testing, bear in mind that these discrepancies are due to the differences between how real time and historical data are handled in the security function. If you’re comfortable with only ever using the most recently closed bar from the higher timeframe, use version 3 and you can simply add to the end of your expression within the security function, and all these problems go away; no repainting, no future data used, real time data matches historical data. You just have to embrace the lag.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by HayeTrading
6
USDCAD - Buy Rating (1.19000) Blue: Price has formed a megaphone pattern indicating increasing volatility overtime. Red: Has acted as resistance in the past, however it has previously been crossed and has had its upside flirted with recently - not the strongest. Pink: Large counter-trend move in the form of a bull-flag. Price has recently broken upside indicating a potential uptrend resumption. Orange: Price consolidation - Evident bull-bias in overall direction and support angle - Resistance most likely triggered by Red. Elliot Wave: Indicates the corrective-wave (A-B-C) has recently ended and that continuation will likely resume. Recent flirting with the upside of Red and Pink, having come in contact with Orange on the downside, as well as Elliot Wave are reason for a buy rating for USDCAD as of ~1.19000. Price has potential to encounter resistance upon coming in contact with Orange/Red on the upside, however, price is expected to break through. A break over ~1.38000 would confirm Continuation-Wave II (1-2-3-4-5) is in effect.
Long
by DELETETHISACCOUNT111111111
1
Significant Reversal in WEF?1. Daily chart shows "Three White Soldiers" or three bullish candles. Price is closed out quite well. Three such candles haven't been seen before at a low point in the downtrend. This suggests that this may be a significant low point. 2. Weekly chart show a bullish hammer followed by a week with a higher high and higher low. 3. On both time frames, bullish price action is happening at the lower bollinger band . Go long at 2.40. Stop Loss at 2.21. Projected price range is 2.75-2.85. Give it a little extra room, in case of a immediate pull-back.
TSX:WEFLong
by AnishBadwe
BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 160)Previous analysis /position: Strong support at $6,800 and falling $1,250/15.21% over the last week led me to believe we should get a bounce to retest $7,250 - $7,500. Remain short ETH:USD from $450. Patterns: Wyckoff distribution with spring indicates that $6,800 is about to breakdown. 1h - 2h bear flags indicate that as well. Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,784 - $6,884 | weak R: $7,016 | strong R: $7,250 | $7,500 | $7,750 BTCUSDSHORTS: Back above 21,500. Currently testing 50 and 128 day MA’s. | 60% long: 40% short Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12= -6.41% | 26 = -5.68% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = Currently acting as support | 128 = -8.13% FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 Candlestick analysis: If current daily candle trades below $6,880 it would be a bearish engulfing. 12h dragonfly and hammer (on top of 128 MA). Ichimoku Cloud: Wicks continue to piece the bottom of the daily cloud, but we still have not closed outside of it. Tenkan-Sen still diverging above the Kijun-Sen when I would expect them to be posturing for a bearish crossover. 12h cloud is bullish and currently acting as support. TD’ Sequential: R-2 < R1 on 3d | Daily R-7 | 12h R-7 Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h is $7,015 | POC over last 5 days is $7,551 with a low volume node between $7,000 and $7,325 | POC over last month is $7,451 | POC over last year is $8,258 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -2.02% | 24h = -0.57% | 1w = -14.89% | 2w = -16.54% | 1m + +6.65% Bollinger Bands: Testing bottom band on daily while the band starts to angle downward. Below MA on weekly. Testing MA on 3d for support. Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: UP = $8,284 | DOWN = $6,068 On Balance Volume: Moving down faster than the price, indicates smart money getting out. ADX: 1d - 1w are bearish w/o any trend present. Chaikin Money Flow: Dumped from 0.2 to < 0.05 in the last week. In agreeance with OBV. RSI (30 setting): 1d and 1w are < 50 Stoch: %K is finally crossing below %D on weekly. This is establishing a lower high. Daily is cooled off and back in oversold zone. Summary: 1h Wyckoff distribution (w spring) and/or the bear flag are indicating that $6,800 should breakdown before we get a bounce to $7,250 - $7,500. Personally I am having a hard time believing that we will breakdown the major level of support after being oversold and still think we will get a bounce. The 12h reversal candles above the 128 MA would agree with me. The 3d TD’ Sequential and the daily cloud are potentially disagreeing with me. The TD’ is providing an entry with a Red 2 below a Red 1. If we close a daily candle below the cloud then it would also be suggestive of an entry. I would pass on the TD’ entry due to being on a daily Red 7. I would pass on the kumo breakdown due to the bullish TK' Cross. If not in a position then I would wait patiently for a bounce and would be prepared to sell the shit out of it. Thanks for reading!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 158)Previous analysis /position: Trading below the volume profile point of control with a 1 month look back period gave me very little confidence in a bounce, gave it a 15% chance. Thought the most likely was to range between $7,250 - $7,500 and form a h&s pattern. Short ETH from $450. Patterns: Nice Wycoff distribution on the 1 hour. Pointed out that we were in the re distribution phase yesterday after re testing the broken down support. 2nd markdown came this morning. Horizontal support and resistance: Found support at $7,000 but it should be weak. Strong support = $6,800 and strong resistance should be waiting at $7,400 - $7,500 BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to build after finding a double bottom at 17,500. Currently testing trend resistance Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0483% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -7,89% | 26 = -5.74% | Both are angling down sharply 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = Current support | 128 = -7.52% FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 Candlestick analysis: Dragon fly, hammers and inverted hammers on 1h show support holding strong at $7,000 Ichimoku Cloud: Just pierced bottom of the cloud, and now it appears to be providing support. C clamp on 5 day cloud. TD’ Sequential: Price flip on 3d. R-5 on daily. Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h = $7,375 | POC over last 5 days = $7,528 | POC over last month = $7,444 | POC over last year = $8,190 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -5.94% | 24h = -4.94% | 1w = -14.72% | 2w = -5.08% | 1m = +6.9% Bollinger Bands: Bottom band on daily = $6,791 | MA on 3d = $6,931 | Back below MA on weekly. Bottom band hanging around $5,500. Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Just took out another daily down fractal. Up remains at $8,367. Next down = $6,085 On Balance Volume: If price fell as hard as daily OBV then we would be back at $6,300. ADX: -DI just crossed above +DI on weekly. Recent cross on daily with ADX > 25 (trending down) Chaikin Money Flow: Finally created a lower low on daily. RSI (30 setting): Just crossed below 50 on daily and weekly. Stoch: Recent sell signal on 3D. Daily re approaching oversold territory. Weekly still looks healthy Conclusion: Yesterday I expected a fall straight to $6,800 if we broke down $7,250 support and was surprised to see the reversal candles on the 1 hour chart. The 50 day MA and psychological support coming from the round number is the only reason why I can see the price finding support here. Conversely the daily cloud could provide a short sale entry in the very near future. We briefly pierced the bottom a bearish cloud, and now it appears to be providing support. However be careful here because we do not have a bearish TK' cross (yet) and we are near significant support. The daily TD' Sequential indicates 4 days left to the downside. If we get a red 9 at $6,800 then a bounce would be highly probable. If not in a position then I would pass on selling a kumo breakdown and wait to sell the bounce from $6,800 - which should take us back to $7,250 - $7,500.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1