EURUSD – Is it doing an about turn for the worse? - Update In my previous chart of EURUSD, you will find lots of details explaining why I am anticipating a new bearish cycle in which the wave 4 (in circle) was about completed and wave 5 (in circle) was about to commence. There are lots of additional charts in comment section to help validate longer term view. This chart is linked below for your reference.
We did not have the follow through to initial decline. Instead a new high was pasted last week. At present, I do not think that this has really changed much for the longer term. In the short term wave 4 was still in progress.
So this is a second attempt to identify possible completion of wave 4, which could now be in place or will be shortly. If correct then wave 5 will follow as anticipated.
In addition to details describe in the earlier chart referred to above, here is the summary of updated technical:
1. We have a trendline from July 2008 high, connection April 2011 high (but ignoring May 2014 as over throw) which comes in to proximity of current price that might mark wave 4 high.
2. We have an uptrend line on RSI from 2013 and August 2017 peak appear to suggest a hidden bearish divergence along with normal divergence with price making new high above August peak and RSI making lower high.
3. In addition to that, we have possible time symmetry shown on the chart – namely April 2011 High to March 2014 closing high measures 150 bars on weekly charts, which equates to approx 149 bars measured from March 2015 low to current high.
4. Fibonacci time relationship between Waves 1 – 3 and wave 4 is approx Fib ration of 1.3618 as shown in the chart.
5. Open Interest and Net Long by Large Speculators is even more extreme now than the one we noted at previous peak in August/September 2017, see chart below.
Short Entry: You can drop down to daily or 4 hour time frame to time short entry on confirmation using your normal method. Just keep in mind that it might can chop about before it gets going in anticipated decline.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps the me most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
