Sell NFP Setup 10/7/22 Decent WeekPatient with the news on the jobs numbers. Immediate drop on the news but it was positive. Being that it was, I decided to wait because there was an opportunity that it could have been a liquidity grab below 3720's equal low and a run for the buy side liquidity.
Sold on news break and on times & sales response. Saw the order flow aim at the ask price and the follow through came in afterwards. Once near target 1, watched the buying come in near the low and looked for a new group of orders to come through on the ask and we saw it. Took off the entire trade at target 2 after an attempted partial closure, a mistake but, that for the moment sucks but oh well! The remaining targets are from the HTF, the 4H+FVG, so I made it to the FVG(H).
Second pending order within the 5m-FVG at 3706.12 missed. Looked for a final tap on the low of the FVG(L) and didn't get it after the ask was hit again just below it.
Good week, not a lot of trading, but finished up pretty well. Most of the moves happened after hours this week or just at a time that I wasn't in front of the screen.
NFP data was positive but, this is implication that the Feds don't have to change their behavior and can extend their stance on monetary polices by a continued interest rate increase.
We'll definitely need to focus on the CPI numbers next week when we get that data.
Timesandsales
SPX Loss 9-30-22 Too early SPX Loss 9-30-22 Too early
Today attempted buying and loss after jumping in too early with a tight SL. Only used about an 1/8th of my normal lot size so the loss is nothing major at all. Was looking for a move off of the 15m+FVG and it moved instead off of the 15m+OB. Wasn't being patient this morning with this setup and jumped in before the orders came through.
NAS orders didn't come in until the 9:45am candle and I entered the trade around the open ahead of the orders. A little more patience and I at least get to close at BE. So today was a missed trade on the drop and a small L. I'll take that!
SPX 9-30-22 News push missNews release dropped us but no clean entry until you get down to the 1m chart. Missed this drop but I'm okay with that. NAS is driving the charts today so far and not a lot of orders have come in on SPX so far. I'm going to sit on this for now until I see something heavy on the bid or ask before I do anything this morning.
SPX Sell 9/28/22SPX Sell 9/28/22
Didn't get a chance to post it and its already at BE and target 1
Adjusted SL on the open to 3688
Partialed at target 2
Mid-week expectation valid and from the highs we have dropped to the area we though it would push to. The question is still, do we stay inside the candle from yesterday on the daily (candle made this week's high and low)?
CPI tomorrow will probably be a good move.
SPX top down short 9/29/22So far we've rejected the weekly high and pushed down into the LTF points of interest. Going into the premarket and NY session I'll be looking for signs of rejection to return to the upside or a continuation of the overall trend.
Mostly favoring a neutral to bearish point of view on this but I don't mind reacting on movement to the upside for a buy if the level 2 data confirms it
SPX 9/28/22 BUY setup and FVG failure exampleToday took a trade based on the 4H setup as the 10am candle opened. Saw that we had a LTF FVG on the 15m (bearish) that failed and became short term bullish and got the entry on the 15m-FVG(H). Order flow confirmed entry to the upside. Buyers hit the bid price at the entry and followed through afterwards.
Stop loss in profits and partialed at target 2 so this is risk free. Target 3 is the 4H-FVG(H) and that where I'm aiming for another partial. I hope this has some legs to keep running.
SPX setup 9/23/22Looking for a retracement at this area for rejection and continuation.
No reason for us to move higher than this but if we do the A/S range left a FVG, an -OB, TDO, and the daily open as supply.
Going to be waiting for the times & sales to show the entry. The pass few days NAS has shown all the order flow except for the afternoon entry on SPX.
Projected low from daily fib level
End of the week so the risk will be reduced and no trades will be at a risk of more than 0.25% for the total of all trades entered.
SPX Breakeven 9/19/22Moved my SL too early and flushed out at BE.
Not a lot of volume on SPX shown until 10:02am at the TDO. NAS showed the volume kick in just before the bell and 9:32am was the actual move up.
NAS made a HL while SPX and US30 both made LL on the daily charts. Then on the 4H we saw the first up candle and price held inside of that candle with volume to the upside.
Things to improve:
Trade management, leave my SL alone, it's there for a reason. When risk is properly established then there should not be a reason to make any adjustments to it. Needed to practice a bit more patience.
Things done well:
The setup, building this hypothesis was well thought out. Both side of the possibility for a continued sell and a rejection buy were setup.
Risk management, even if I'd loss the entire trade I was only wagering 0.25% on the trade