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SPX ~6000 if this time is not differentThe SPX chart has 2 goals and one constraint: Demonstrate the VIX / VVIX ratio as an inverse momentum indicator for SPX. The VIX is risk adjusted" by VVIX and the ratio is more useful than VIX alone. "Useful" is similar to 'Statistical Power' and means less data required to identify smaller changes amidst higher volatility. Suggest that an ATH of SPX 6000 is "not unreasonable" considering the pattern and magnitude of prior large moves (corrections, bear markets, and very large dips) . . . Unless this time is different.
TVC:VIX
by gb50k
2
Grand Finale: Wave IV Scenario (Update)This has been a grueling past 6 months trying to complete this corrective Wave IV before beginning the final motive Wave V of a 13 year bull market. Bulls and Bears playing mid-term options have been punished continuously for staying too long. I think it is important to keep the bigger picture in mind here - i.e. SPY will very likely make one last All Time High before entering a bear market. If you read the headlines of mainstream media you'll probably contest that we are already in a bear market because there was a 20% decline off the Jan. highs; however, the mathematical basis for such a definition is unsophisticated. But I am not here to argue the nuances of bear market definitions, rather, to provide a scenario that could unfold over the next couple months to provide a dramatic exit from this corrective Wave IV and on to new ATH by end of 2022 or early 2023. What I am seeing is a WXY double combo, currently trying to complete Y via an expanding triangle. I understand expanding triangles are very rare; however, SPY has been trading with characteristics of such, and expanding triangles are observed in environments of extreme uncertainty - so for me the math and the logic align with this possibility. What does this mean near term? Swing City. Huge 40-60 point swings that I have provided an estimated road map for in the chart above. I will be taking this one leg at a time, as there are layered conditional probabilities dominating the dynamics of the successive expected legs of this scenario (and the sub-waves there within) - so updates along the way will be warranted. Initial Expectations : - dead cat bounce early this coming week to the 406-408 level to test the bottom of the channel that formed last week around leg (c) on the chart. Point initial target 406.91 . This would form sub-wave b of leg (d) and mark a 0.618 retracement from the low Friday, 6/10, which was potentially sub-wave a of (d). Statistically, the move down at the end of last week put SPY in a very over-extended position to the downside and left a gap from 395.78 - 401.44 wide open. At minimum I would expect gap fill, but a perfect trap would be continuation to test the bottom of blue channel - and the latter would make more sense based on the ratios of the sub-waves of realized legs (a-c). - high probability of rejection around 406-408. Rejection around the gap would have the same consequences: i.e., sharp downside to the 362-372 range (lower boundary of expanding triangle. I could see the initial dead-cat bounce to 406-408 unfolding into the FOMC next week around 6/15 (also a Supermoon that day so high volatility to be expected), and then harsh sell off to complete leg (d) by end of June. My point target for leg (d) is 364.49 . Projecting beyond the point of leg (d) is speculative based on the general structure of expanding triangles, but if leg (d) plays out then I think the probability the remaining triangle completes increases significantly.. so I'll just give approximate forecasts for now. - following leg (d), given (d) is realized within the vicinity of expectation, I would expect either a 3-count sub-wave up to around SPY 424, or an impulse (dashed projection) up to around 429-430 to form leg (e) = B of (Y) of IV. Such a move would be an explosive reaction to the sharp downside from expected (d) that would indubitably make us oversold af. Side note*: observe the candle back on May 13, it essentially carved out the levels pre-determined for the gap that was formed last Friday, 6/10.. pay close attention to price action around those levels in the days/weeks to come. - in the event leg (e) is realized in either of the cases above, there would likely be one final leg down to form C of (Y) of IV (and ultimately complete corrective wave IV. Time to completion is speculative at best from here still, but probably around August 2022. By this time everyone will be confused af after getting whipsawed both ways with the huge swings of the expanding triangle, but if you believe me that this is possible and actually the most probable scenario that I see from here, you'll be like "oh... I C (Y)...IV." If you think they'll be mass confusion at the completion of IV, just imagine the reaction when immediately following this completion SPY begins wave V and takes off to new All Time Highs in the 500s. Don't guard the man, guard the ball... ball never lies. Regards, Coach Phil Jackson P.S. watch out for those Bulls in transition #23
AMEX:SPY
by JerryManders
13
The Element of Time - The Most Underrate Technical Analysis ToolMarket timing is an essential tool whether you're a day-trader, portfolio manager and/or long-term investor. I present to you the most underrated technical analysis tool in the space of retail trading. The purpose of this short educational webinar is to open your eyes to something you don't hear about abundantly because it is the most disregarded aspect of trading in my opinion. As an intraday trader, my main focus is on the speculation of "the next daily candle". However, I first analyze and project on "the next weekly candle". Each weekly candle is broken into 5 individual daily candles, and each daily candle is broken down into 3 main market sessions - namely, Asia, London & New York Session. You'll find that my main focus in this lesson is on the day in which you find a lower / upper wick being created on the weekly candle. More often than not, "Tuesday" typically forms the low of a bullish weekly candle, and the high of a bearish weekly candle. Watch the lesson entirely, take notes, but most importantly, let it open up the opportunity for you to exponentially elevate your trading skillset.
Education
by Maroun4x
9
INTEREST RATE DECISION IMPACT II. PARTI think we are nearing the end and just like the Federal Reserve help to put the bottom in in March of 2020 I think they are going mark the top in at the end the this year making (2021). How the mechanisms work in short. At this point in a long-term economic cycles you seen the financilization of everything near the end of the dominance of economies that only global reserve currency becomes one trade. Business Land Stores of valu All move in tandem against the currency at the sole discretion of the Central Bank We've seen in last two years unprecedented money supply in the intervention in our economy by the Central Bank that results have been record high asset prices and record-breaking inflation. Federal Reserve faces unpopular decision holding back on it easy money policy. Its comes in two forms either raising interest rates or selling assets. The FED currently doing which is buying acsetss injecting new money what they will do in near future is selling assets thus they will extract money from the economy . They stated very clearly the economy is not yet strong enough to raise interest rates. Thus the first thing that they plan on doing is reducing assets purchases and then after that point they will start selling and raising interest rate at some point. Timeline for this when will this tapering will happen and when will cause a crash as result of tightening would definitely not happen until at least tigtening begins so its pretty much rules out this year because they've stated that they're gonna let us know when it's going to happen . The earliest that begin to reducing asset purchases is closer to the end of this year but it does take a little bit of time for the effect of monetary policy to be felt in economy. The effect does not will be inmediant, but for you at time need to positioneted your assets accordingly. We have time , which is great but if we step earlie we gonna leave money on the table. FED TIMELINE According to the Federal Reserve with light to have their total asset purchase per month down 0$ purchases by the end of 2022 if not a little bit earlier. Current120 billion dollars ( min) In the next part I will let you know why they need hike rates, and how its connected with Joe Biden agenda. Now the most important things to interpret the coming message from Jeremy Powell on Wednesday. Please look after if you dont know M2 money supply
U
by ElGatoTrade
S&P 500 Numerology - Hypothesis of Major Cycle TopThe concept of numerology is most often not taken seriously for obvious reasons. Most principally, it is because it doesn't make logical sense to the human brain. The human brain (of those rooted in western culture, at least) is more attuned to Newtonian logic, structured systems, or the stamp of approval from some poorly run university journal than it is accepting certain "coincidental" truths. The entire subject of "microeconomics" is a testament to this need to reduce human behavior into four or five hard, mathematical equations. I have personally taken a microeconomics class and I can safely say that none of the concepts can be practically applied to real life commerce. Please refrain from commenting if you disagree; you can instead have more fun trying to calculate individual elasticities for trade idea subscriptions. Wow, got pretty sidetracked there. My point is that keeping an open mind to certain market-related concepts can really broaden your understanding of how price action actually works. If that isn't incentive enough, then it can also substantially improve your timing accuracy and a general sense of market direction. If this still isn't incentive enough, then you might be inelastic to certain trade idea subscriptions. I wouldn't know though, since I dropped the class after lecture number 1. In theme with open-mindedness, check out the numerological proof above. The basis for this idea derives from W.D. Gann's concept of squaring price with time, which can be interpreted in any number of ways and applied as such. Basically, his idea stems from his observation that market trends change direction during those instances where some amount of price is equal to some passage of time. Put another way, the market cannot reverse its trend unless the underlying reaches a certain diagonal distance away from its origin, such that the y-axis distance equals the x-axis distance. Put another way, if the diagonal distance from a given origin point is equally distant horizontally and vertically from either respective axis, then that diagonal distance can be drawn at a 45-degree angle, such that a perfect square can be traced around it. If this still seems confusing, that's because it is. The concept of time and price squared is often misinterpreted, and even more often, applied incorrectly. Ever try using a "square of nine" and wondering what the hell you were doing for that many hours? Classic case of not really understanding the concept of price/time squared. The truth is that Gann's work is extremely intensive and valid educational resources are both difficult to come by and usually quite expensive. If you ever come across something Gann-related that isn't either of those things, then it's likely incomplete and will surely leave you more confused than you were beforehand. To alleviate your confusion about the point of my numerological proof up there, all I did was take the square root of a number of calendar days between March 6th, 2009 and September 2nd, 2021 and compared that quotient with the square root of the number of dollars/share in between the low price reached on the former date and the high price reached on the latter date. If the high of 4545 reached last September really is the top of some major trend, then it must necessarily tie out with a corresponding bottom made at some point X in the past. The two square-root quotients of price difference and time difference between two separate dates must relate in some sort of numerological way for these dates to define the starting point and the ending point of an apparent trend. The more obvious and literal the connection, the more sure you can be that you've nailed the defining start and end dates to a major S&P trend. If you don't believe me, then try it out on another set of dates. Eventually, you will see what I mean (hint: try starting your search on a major round number like the first date that hits 1000 price points). Now, if you've read up until this point, I commend you. Your reward in doing so is knowing that the proof succeeded, which means that the September high will not be exceeded in the near future; certainly not in 2021. You should also know that this is stated in the chart above. -CoinciPig SP:SPX TVC:DJI TVC:IXIC
SP:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
19
The critical importance of time frames INTC exampleAs in life, the questions you ask will determine the answers you get when it comes to trading. We live in an age of "instantism" - we have been conditioned to believe that faster is better – faster price executions, faster trading, faster feedback, faster news, faster food, faster everything! And this need for speed has been translated into trading. I know whereof I speak since as recently as 8 years ago the vast majority of my trading was day trading. But I no longer believe that day trading is viable for most people unless they trade large positions for very predictable small moves. That's what high-frequency trading is all about. I have no need or interest in a 10 second chart. But that is of course personal preference. As an example of what I'm referring to take the current situation in Intel as shown in chart form above. The moving average channel method that I developed many years ago clearly shows the trend has been consistently higher with support coming at or slightly below the moving average channel monthly chart per the methodology. As a long-term trader or investor, I see an opportunity to buy at support. The trader who has been looking at the daily chart has been short. Can both points of view be correct? Absolutely! The short-term trader using the moving average channel methodology has been short. Profit targets have been achieved. The long-term trader or investor using the monthly chart has now switched into "look for a buying opportunity" mode and can switch to a daily chart for timing. RBT NOTE: the two indicators in the chart above are a 10 period Simple moving average of the high, an 8 period Simple moving average of the low. The lower indicator is Williams accumulation distribution and a 57 Simple moving average of Williams.
NASDAQ:INTC
by rulesbasedtrader
My JB 8OC signals on 6 hr S&P FuturesWe know for a fact that moving averages of closing prices are notoriously inaccurate. My variation on the moving average concept, which uses eight SMA close versus eight SMA open is, in my opinion, a better way to go. Here is the six-hour chart of S&P futures showing signal turns in the eight OC "relationship. No, it's not perfect by a long shot but it does have great potential and I've been using it for many years. Additionally what's required is a trigger that is more accurate as well as a target and a profit-maximizing procedure. Why six hours? I don't want to be up all night looking at a five-minute chart. The six hours chart is stable and gives me time to sleep! And six hours is a night of good sleep for an old man like me!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by rulesbasedtrader
2
My JB MA CHANNEL INDICATORWe all know that moving averages, in particular, moving averages of closing prices tend to be highly inaccurate indicators and frequently miss major tops and bottoms. In backtesting, they tend to be accurate some 30 to 40% of the time which is to my way of thinking unacceptable. On the contrary moving averages of opens versus closes for highs versus lows, when used properly avoid the drawbacks of closing moving averages, particularly when combined with a trigger. Shown above is my moving average channel method which uses the 57 SMA of Williams accumulation distribution as a setup or trigger. As shown by the arrows two consecutive price bars completely below the MA channel low and triggered by Williams below SMA constitutes a sell signal. Conversely, two consecutive price bars or more above the moving average channel high accompanied by Williams above its moving average constitutes a sell trigger. The moving average channel high, the red line is a 10 period Moving average of highs. The Moving average channel low, the green line is an 8 period Moving average of the low. There are at least a dozen applications of this methodology including its ability to spot trend changes, support, resistance, swing trades, market strength, market weakness, and more. I will post some of these additional uses of the moving average channel as they present themselves. Do note that in this chart there were two instances above the moving average channel high but these were not triggered by Williams AD and therefore the trend remains down for the duration of this chart. The methodology associated with my MAC is completely rules-based and works in any timeframe. Thank you my friend Larry Williams for developing your excellent version of accumulation distribution. Thank you Dan Wall here on TV for your brilliant coding of my work. Jake Bernstein (RBT rules-based trader) www.jakebernstein.com PS to see the MAC in a bull market take a look at a daily chart of Netflix (NFLX)
NYSE:GOLD
by rulesbasedtrader
JB 8OC channel width as a LEADING INDICATOROne of my favorite indicators for short-term trading as well as longer-term investing is the 8 open/close relationship. As I have explained it in previous postings the concept and the coding are incredibly simple. We are looking at two moving averages eight SMA close versus eight SMA open. The concept makes sense logically because in a rising market there is pressure to the upside by buyers, therefore, causing the close to be greater than the open in most cases. The reverse holds true on the downside. Clearly, this is not a 100% relationship but it is a significant tendency. Given this tendency, we can help identify trend changes when they happen and in many cases before they happen. As the balance of power changes from bears to bulls, the difference between the eight close and the eight open becomes smaller and the channel therefore narrows. As the balance of power changes from bulls to bears the channel narrows and the trend changes. I have illustrated this narrowing tendency in the accompanying chart. The key, as I have stated earlier in postings, is to determine a profit target. Once the first target has been hit we take action to reduce our risk effectively to zero with trailing stops. Let me know if this is concept is making a positive difference for you in which case I will continue to share my trading experience and indicator usage with anyone who has an interest. No guarantees. Just simplicity. Just logic. Just a little bit of thought but not too much! Jake RBT
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by rulesbasedtrader
My JB 8OC timing trigger on BITCOIN/USDIt's easy for a timing indicator or a market forecaster to look good in a trending market. As long as the trend remains bullish with low volatility virtually any timing indicator will be bullish and appear to be valid. The same holds true of down-trending markets. We all know that to be true. The real significance of any indicator or forecasting methodology is determined by how it performs in volatile and/or sideways markets. This chart shows bitcoin versus US dollar, certainly a volatile market and certainly a market that has had several uptrends and downtrends. When the chart bars turn green the averages cross and signal an uptrend. When they turn red that indicates the eight close has moved below the open and signals the start of a downtrend. As you can see the JB 8OC captures meaningful up and downtrends but also gives some back during periods of whipsaw. This is not unusual. Remember that with any indicator you must use it in time frames where it performs best. In my experience, JB 8OC performs extremely well in weekly time frames. I will also post a few charts showing JB 8OC in intraday time. Finally remember that every methodology, at least in my opinion, must contain three elements: set up, trigger, and follow through. As I have shown it in its present state JB 8OC is only a setup. We can increase overall profitability and accuracy and eliminate many losing trades if we add a trigger which I will show over the next few days. Jake RBT
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by rulesbasedtrader
2
My JB 8OC WEEKLY on UNG Nat Gas ETFThank you to those who have responded so kindly and favorably to my postings on the JB 80C indicator that I developed (quite some time ago). The JB 8OC indicator is based on a simple but powerful concept. Specifically, in bull markets no matter what the timeframe, closing prices of a given time bar tend to be higher than opening prices. In a bear market closing prices tend to be lower than opening prices. It's a simple supply and demand relationship. The JB 8OC algorithm takes this relationship into consideration, constructing an indicator to assess the relationship mathematically and visually. As in the case of many indicators, and in fact most indicators, there will be some choppiness but we can eliminate much of that choppiness by adding to the methodology a trigger which will filter out a good percentage of erratic trades. I will show a trigger in later posts if people have an interest in them. If so let me know. Now with regard to timeframe I realize that most traders want to trade very short-term time frames and I have no issue with that but my days of ultra short-term trading are over. I would rather work smart and take my time for bigger moves than work hard for smaller moves. Of course, it's a personal preference. The good news about this indicator is that it's adaptable to all time frames but remember- the bigger the timeframe the more stable the result. Best of trading. Jake RBT (rules based trader)
AMEX:UNG
by rulesbasedtrader
1
Platinum ETF PLTM 8OC WEEKLY triggers buy last weekPlatinum prices surged higher today as did all precious metals. My weekly 8oc indicator triggered a buy signal last week when the 8MA close ended the week above the 8MA open. Signals are only valid at the end of each price bar because they can move back and forth during the price bar but that would not be indicative of a change in trend until the bar is over. Generally speaking a first target for this method would be the range of the largest bar in the last 10 prior to the signal. In this case, for example,that was approximately $1.06 three weeks ago. Adding that to the closing price on the trigger bar would be our first target. Although the 8oc is not perfect (and nothing is), it is an effective way of spotting trend changes early in their inception. Jake RBT
AMEX:PLTM
by rulesbasedtrader
My 8OC trend indicator on MSFT dailyFor many years traders have used moving averages of closing prices to trigger trend changes. Historically crossovers such as the 50 day/200 day methodology are extremely inaccurate and tend to be late in picking tops and bottoms. I find that a more fruitful approach is to compare averages of closing prices versus moving averages of opening prices. Of course this approach also requires a trigger, a stop, a target, and a prophet maximizing methodology. Although it can be used in any timeframe, the larger time frames such as weekly yield are stable results. If you're interested let me know and I can provide more granularity. RBT
NASDAQ:MSFT
by rulesbasedtrader
Gold Timing for next 4 daysRed line expected down candle green is expected up candle ,THE MOST IMPORTANT HERE , when the bearish or bullish hour is closer to TESLA PRICE LEVEL , start the opposite direction, Please note this method accuracy is about 80% , I have another personal indicator , for tomorrow we have a starting Bearish direction till 9 am , the Gold will start go up , will comment day by day as my indicator is daily based , below will list the Bearish and Bullish hours with date from my excel output where I did plot on this chart, some hours are crossing UP/Down , mostly are reversal hour , below also I will list the reversal TESLA , which has no relation to Gold , but is something general. 1- Bullish hours: 19/7/21 8:00:00 AM 19/7/21 10:49:28 AM 19/7/21 1:38:55 PM 19/7/21 4:28:23 PM 19/7/21 7:17:50 PM 19/7/21 10:07:18 PM 20/7/21 12:56:45 AM 20/7/21 3:46:13 AM 20/7/21 6:35:40 AM 20/7/21 9:25:08 AM 20/7/21 12:14:35 PM 20/7/21 3:04:03 PM 20/7/21 5:53:30 PM 20/7/21 8:42:58 PM 20/7/21 11:32:25 PM 21/7/21 2:21:53 AM 21/7/21 5:11:20 AM 21/7/21 8:00:48 AM 21/7/21 10:50:15 AM 21/7/21 1:39:43 PM 21/7/21 4:29:10 PM 21/7/21 7:18:38 PM 21/7/21 10:08:05 PM 22/7/21 12:57:33 AM 22/7/21 3:47:00 AM 2- Bearish Hours: 19/7/21 3:00:00 AM 19/7/21 5:49:27 AM 19/7/21 8:38:55 AM 19/7/21 11:28:22 AM 19/7/21 2:17:50 PM 19/7/21 5:07:17 PM 19/7/21 7:56:45 PM 19/7/21 10:46:12 PM 20/7/21 1:35:40 AM 20/7/21 4:25:07 AM 20/7/21 7:14:35 AM 20/7/21 10:04:02 AM 20/7/21 12:53:30 PM 20/7/21 3:42:57 PM 20/7/21 6:32:25 PM 20/7/21 9:21:52 PM 21/7/21 12:11:20 AM 21/7/21 3:00:47 AM 21/7/21 5:50:15 AM 21/7/21 8:39:42 AM 21/7/21 11:29:10 AM 21/7/21 2:18:37 PM 21/7/21 5:08:05 PM 21/7/21 7:57:32 PM 21/7/21 10:47:00 PM Expect in the comment the personal timing indicator output for each day by day
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ElGendiGoldMan
3
HOW-TO Exit Trades Correctly? Important LessonsTrading is a game of mental challenges You don't just need to have a great method You don't just need a great indicator or an algorithm What you need is the ability to make the Correct Decisions at the Right Time. I Executed a Trade on ESI right at the breakout point. It was a good entry. Held it long enough But later lost discipline got too aggressive with SL and moved it BE. The next day it flew today it hit my 2R profit target number 2. Lessons Lessons Lessons Meanwhile, I held OII through to Target point 2... In the related ideas below you will See another such trades I messed up. I took Long on NYSE:GAB and got out early. Watch where it is now. It is very important to execute your trade plan as much as it is important to have a good plan based on a solid strategy. An Alternative Method of trading this Pattern I have an alternative method here. See if you can make sense of this? comment below if you need clarifications NYSE:ESI NYSE:OII NYSE:CBRE NYSE:GAB
NYSE:ESIEducation
by iTradeAIMS
2