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Timing

Timing Mkt Entrance from RSI, Stochastic & Bollinger BandsI am eager to buy this stock because of its strong financials, its strong dividend, exemplary stewardship, and its current valuation, which is significanlty less than its fair value estimate (~$21/share current, compared to ~$29/share est. fair val.). However, due to its recent price increase I am not confident to buy this stock now because I have a gut feeling that this stock will decrease in the short-term, thus minimizing my prorfits. Furthermore, with the market being as high as it is, I would like to mitigate the effects of any impending stock market slumps. Many believe that another crash is imminent, and I dont want to be caught in a situation where I paid a price for a stock that it may not reach again for several months. This will tie up valuable income that could otherwise be used to make bargain purchases should a stock market slump occur. My analysis of this stock is as follows. I first indicated the prolonged overbought status of the RSI indicator, further confirmed by the stochastic indicator beginning in middle-to-late November. Then, I took note of the repeated top-Bollinger band penetration by the price signal, beginning in the first week of November, and continuing until mid-December. Finally, I looked at the volume oscillator to look for signs of divergence. I know that if strong upward moves are supported by a strong positive shift in volume, that the current trend is likely to continue. However, I know that if a strong upward move in price is backed instead by a strong negative shift in volume, that a price reversal may soon follow. Further to my point about volume movement, I observed that the volume oscillator's value at the close of December 11 was ~-4%, and more, that the rate of change of the volume oscillator was decreasing. This is especially apparent in the DEMA-9 of the volume oscillator signal. Since volume is an inherently noisy signal, especially in the 4h chart used in this analysis, I prefer to analyze a smoothed, DEMA-9 on the volume oscillator instead. This makes it more straight forward to assess volume movements and not be distracted by strong peaks and valleys seen in the un-smoothed signal. Thus, I anticipated that a further volume decline would ensure, despite the fact that the price appeared to be increasing rather strongly (but deceivingly so). I thus held off on buying this stock on November 24, where I began my analysis, despite my strong urge to do so given the attractive price increase. I am not certain when I will buy this stock, as the point I made about an imminent market crash is still valid. However should the price continue to decline significantly - the current decline sits at -2.3% in 3.5 hours since mkt open - it will look much more attractive to buy at that time.
NYSE:EPD
by nicholasbdurham
11:30 InflectionsYears ago when I was learning to trade and studying under my mentor he told me that day trading was best done in just the 90 minutes from 10:00am EST to 11:30am EST. This makes a lot of sense. The 9:30am to 10:00am opening time is very volatile for stocks. Traders are rushing to open or close positions before many have made their decisions to put orders into the book so price can swing wildly. This could present opportunities if one were on the right side of them but finding consistency within this time gap is more challenging. Around 11:30am is getting close to lunch hour but more importantly when the European markets close. The logic is that trading is about to decrease as traders take a break. More importantly though with the close of Europe there will be less volume coming from across the pond. In my Discord I have often been asked "when should I take profit???" which is a question I always avoid. Every trader is responsible for their own trades. When this question comes up though I will share the wisdom of my years which is "look for an exit around 11:30am". "Not always" but "often enough" this is where price will tend to do an inflection. It is a simple timing mark to watch and it does in fact work as a good guideline. NYSE:LLY was a good example of this. The 11:30am timing element was amplified by the fact that it was also a Friday meaning not only was Europe closed for the day but also closed for the week. LLY is an international company so there was undoubtedly international trading going on with the stock. Now that you've seen it remember to take note of this timing element in your own trading!
NYSE:LLY
by norok
8
UNG may have bottomed...From the chart we see a near perfect hit of a 1.27 extension of an impulse wave in the 11.5 region which may have marked a bottom in Natural gas, I say this because in recent weeks we are not seeing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows take hold. Furthermore there has been aggressive buying in related stocks such as SWN and RRC which may be an early indication of a change in the market trend. Using a Fibonacci trend based timing tool (horizontally w/ regard ot time as opposed to vertically for price) we see had relevance in predicting price reversals (from the 1 marked with a long vertical line in the graph) we are coming up on the 1.27 this Monday, it will be very interesting to see how the next few weeks play out.
AMEX:UNGLong
by TNasr
BREAK IMMINENT BE READY FROM 6AM TO 10AM CST - GOLD- GC1! - 30MNThan you for your likes and shares! Much appreciated! __________________________________________________ The market profile at the moment is providing opportunities to trade the Gold GC1! from 6AM to 10AM. Time when we observed huge movements recently. The market used again that time frame to jump from the previous range to the new one. The market is at the moment very flat. The Support and Resistance lines are very important. A break could possibly lead to a another range in the upper side or in a fall in the down side as we can observe that the historical uptrend support in passing through the New gold Range. Beware: If the market decides to break the resistance , then we can possibly reconsider the dotted green uptrend line as new point of support for the price calculation.The market has approved that hypothesis several times has shown in the presented graph. Every time it has touched it, we have noticed a nice movement following.
COMEX:GC1!
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
I Was Right...But At The Wrong TIME! - 05/14/20 RECAPHi traders, What a day! I took a record of 7 trades (my average is about 3) and all of them were beautiful setups. But most of the time the market went immediately against me and pushed the stocks I traded the other way! Key point here is not to give in and blame the market - it doesn't care at all and you can't sue it :D Reduce the size so you don't exceed your maximal daily loss but stay in the game if you are mentally in a good state (for beginners I'd suggest switching to DEMO after 2 consecutive losses, though!). Yes, being down for the week again sucks, but thanks to good risk management it's just over 1 percent - a single winning trade away from turning green. This is why RM is your priority. It's much harder, if not almost impossible digging yourself up from 10, 20 or 30% Drawdown My Trades: 1) CODX - LONG @28.39, -0.95% 2) Z - LONG @46.53, +1.18% 3) MRNA - SHORT @61.95, -0.75% 4) AMD - LONG @53.03, -0.93% 5) UNFI - SHORT @18.89, -0.04% 6) DDOG - SHORT @62.78, -1.08% 7) SYF - LONG @17.02, -0.65% *In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR ). Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the trades' description.* Total PnL for the day: -3.22% Total PnL for the week: -1.37% Good trades, Tom | FINEIGHT
AMEX:SPY
by Fineight
IMW may bottom out in mid-MayFor context please note we are dealing with weekly candlesticks here, I'm pointing that out b/c people are used to seeing shorter time frames and I don't want anyone to be confused. Overall I think we are in the beginning stages of a large degree C-wave in an ABC correction. I am neutral on the Russell as of now b/c I think we need a smaller degree B-wave up in the ABC pattern of the C-wave itself. Also note that a curved arrow in my chart represents a huge gap that must be filled sooner or later. Once IWM starts to dip again I am targeting the 123 region in May of this year, price is based on the notion that the large degree C-wave may be roughly equal in length to the initial A-wave and duration may be similar as well, Obviously this is a rough guide and once she starts to bottom we may take note of bullish divergences and/ or volume patterns indicating it may be time to reverse up. Again, I am bullish short term and bearish months out. Please ask any questions and share any thoughts, thanks.
AMEX:IWM
by TNasr
Gold needs to dip and resetCongrats to anyone who has been long gold and if you have now is the time to take profit. Overall I am bullish on the metal but its plain to see it needs to dip a bit and reset a base from which to continue up further. Three arrows on this chart point to a pair of highs and a low in b/w them that combined we can project Fibonacci timing points from that have served relatively well thus far as far as trend reversals are concerned and we can see that we are upon a 2.382 extension that will probably mark a dip that is already potentially happening. I would like to see pullback hold the upper 140s from which we can go long again.
AMEX:GLDShort
by TNasr
10
OSK BTD off Symmetry SupportThis came to me in meditation, and this is a good thing, usually. The chart is ugly with no great trend, but this is what I'm given. I do technicals and then a "reading" with my pendulum and cards. What I'm seeing: - weekly timing just counting bars, and it appears to be in a weekly timing window. - 200 EMA at $83.42, 50 week MA $82.45, weekly ATR trailing stop just above there and Symmetry support at $81.76 - I like the zig zag pattern down. - The "reading" indicates we expect to dip below last week's low ($83.62) and reverse. I feel good about the message and the way it lines up with the technicals. I'm looking for a 5% gain this week ($86.55 from entry) and then I'm out. - Entry ~ $82.43 near 50% retracement - Stop is a daily close below $81.76 (sym. support)
NYSE:OSKLong
by JenRz
1
When will BTC peak in the next parabolic rally?This is another iteration of a previously published chart, but simplified to drive the point home. Motivation Predicting the peak of BTC's next parabolic rally is critical for the profit-taking strategies of speculators and hodlers alike. For speculators, it's about knowing when to get out. For hodlers it's about how to grow your bags. Really, knowing the timing of the peak is more important than knowing the potential price levels. BTC is a deflationary asset. As market cap continually builds, flow is being squeezed on a pre-set schedule and real value continues to grow. So, we know price will rise. Whatever levels we may reach ($50K? $150K? $250K? 1 million?), taking profits requires knowing WHEN those peaks may be attained. Two Perspectives There seems to be two primary camps in the timing debate. In the first camp, there are analysts who note that the time between each previous peak has grown. For these analysts, the first all-time high of around $30 in 2011 is key. The subsequent ATH in 2013 of nearly $1,200 came only 2 years 5 months later (884 days). In contrast, the next ATH took 4 years and 1 month to arrive (1491 days). This 40% expansion in time between peaks logically leads some to believe we will see a similarly expanded time frame as we wait for the next peak, with many predicting peaks delayed until 2023 or even 2024. Such predictions, however, seem to discount or devalue the underlying architecture of BTC growth, the built-in halving cycle in which the flow of new BTC into the system drops every 4 years when the reward to miners is cut by 50%. The 2017 peak arrived 4 years and 1 month after the 2013 peak (1491 days). Was this a signal that the parabolic price cycle had become calibrated with the 4 year halving cycle? If so, the cycles seem to be offset by approximately 18 months, which would make the target for the next peak in or around December 2021, or some 18 months (1460 days) after the 3rd halving in May of 2020. The Upshot Obviously there are so many attenuating factors that can influence the market, and when and where we'll find peak price discovery is anyone's guess, but smart profit seekers would do well to monitor the market closely as we approach December 2021. Even if the peak is delayed, this should be a key profit-taking window for speculators. For hodlers, it will be an opportunity to strategically pull capital from overvalued BTC before the inevitable 75-85% retracement in which we can grow our bags with an eye to 2025 and beyond.
BNC:BLX
by DragonFish1969
Timing the Peak of the Next BTC Bull RunWhen will Bitcoin reach the peak of its next parabolic advance? Probably at roughly the same time it did in the last rally. This seems straight forward enough, but other trend analysis on this platform has variously projected the next bitcoin price peak from sometime just after the third halving in May 2020 all the way to sometime in 2023. While the earlier prediction is highly unlikely, the extended prediction is supported by the fact that, peak to peak, the third bull run of 2017 was much more extended (1491 days) than the previous bull run (884 days). Therefore, we may assume that subsequent parabolic moves will also play out over longer and longer time frames. However, the simplest answer is probably the best in this case. If we consider that the halvings are roughly 4 years apart, it is notable that the third peak came just over 4 years after the second peak. This suggests that in fact the peaks have become calibrated to the halvings and that the next all time high will come near the 4 year mark (or day 1460) as well. Bitcoin is unique in that the stock to flow ratio can be very precisely projected, unlike any other traditional market, making this rough prediction of the timing possible. This probably doesn’t help us predict price discovery, however. Government regulation, current events, technological disruption, etc., etc., all affect market sentiment and make it nearly impossible to guess where the price will go. That said, we do know that the halvings will become more and more priced into market valuations in the future as the market gains a greater awareness of the halving algorithm, and this process has probably already started. Futures markets (CME & Bakkt) will also act as tempering forces on BTC volatility (apparently the intention when futures trading was launched on CME in 2017). And as the value of BTC has become more tagged to store-of-value than currency utility, volatility and price discovery have naturally been tamed (relatively), a process that will also continue. This is to say that conservative predictions may fall closer to the mark. On the other hand, the mere fact that flow is dramatically cut after each halving as demand continues to grow gives BTC bulls a lot of hope. Whatever the peak of the next parabolic rally, it is likely to be tied closely to the halving cycle and stock-to-flow models, and trend lines will probably remain inside the general channel indicated by history. In other words, we're probably not going to the moon, but we are still holding the best performing asset ever seen. Hopefully these observations aren’t too obvious. They are just meant to help us all keep our eyes on the big picture as we hodl into the future. DF
BNC:BLX
by DragonFish1969
$XAU Daily uptrend analysis #Sequential #GoldHello everyone. Gold remains in a bullish trend and found some exhaustion points recently: - S13 and A21 on 08/08 - C13 on 08/13 - Nested S21 on 09/23 Despite these last exhaustion points, the daily main bullish sequential countdown has not been invalidated. This bullish countdown is currently on a bar 5/13 and its last increased bar was on 09/04. With the remaining countdown bars, price could then reach once again the upper limit of the bullish channel. For now, price is forming a small consolidation pattern (blue), which looks like an ascending triangle. If this pattern fails, the price could fall in a wider pattern (gray falling wedge) and find first some support on the middle line of the channel. The TDST Support is @ 1400 USD and could coincide with the lower limit of the channel, so this is also a level to watch. Best! MATHR3E Sequential indicators: MATHR3E TD Multi Sequential MATHR3E TD Setup Trend MATHR3E TD Sequential Fibonacci Extension MATHR3E TD Aggressive Fibonacci Extension MATHR3E TD Combo Fibonacci Extension
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MATHR3E
Lets be honest guys. $tsla $spy it was a good run. Especially if you've been long from the lows. more than an 80% rally from the bottom. Tesla will dominate the auto industry as well as the energy sector. But just looking at the new range we find ourselves i can't help but consolidate on these gains. I have exited more than 50% of my position now and might continue to exit. overall not bullish on the stock, and the market anymore. my instinct is always to follow the trend, but nobody went broke taking profits. Thank you guys but im pretty much closing my fiscal year for stocks. Wont be looking for any positions until i see a correction in markets overall. Im comfortable now derisking from tesla and would like to see a new entry point. I have a little exposure left but anymore upside and i will continue to sell. \ Investing is my life now and im so happy to be part of a community that is so generous in offering their insight. Blessed for everyone that comments, likes and views my posts. i appreciate it so much. We are all going to make it if we continue to be constructive and thoughtful in our posts. Ill still be seeking out ideas and if you want to follow me on my youtube channel tagalong where i cover a few more markets like crypto. Thanks guys :) www.youtube.com
NASDAQ:TSLA
by xueq
$BTC Bull Flag vs Bear Trend continuation #SequentialHi everyone, BTC is still forming a bull flag, but this could be insufficient to cancel the daily bearish countdown. If the countdown has to complete first, this means a bearish target of at least: - $7.993 on Coinbase - $7.470 on Bitstamp There is a countdown shift between the 2 platforms so it is actually quite difficult to predict a target. I would favor the coinbase target as it coincides better with the 0.764 Fib retracement... Targets are not a guarantee! Countdown can be cancelled by these 2 conditions: - A new Sell setup (After a bullish TD Price Flip, there must be nine consecutive closes, each one greater than the corresponding close four bars earlier) - A candle low completed above TDST Resistance @10.379USD On the 12H chart, we had 2 nice potential Buy points indicated by S13 and S21. Here also the main bearish sequential countdown has not been canceled so we could reach the next S34 exhaustion point. Best! MATHR3E Sequential indicators: MATHR3E TD Setup Trend MATHR3E TD Sequential Fibonacci Extension MATHR3E TD Aggressive Fibonacci Extension MATHR3E TD Combo Fibonacci Extension
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MATHR3E
5