How to take advantage of a trade multiple times? Check it out!Hi guys!
Just published my very first educational post, I hope you will like it!
This is a trade which I took yesterday and I thought it would be interesting to "dissect" it into 4 steps in order to understand why and when is the "best" moment to buy and/or to sell.
I have incorporated the explanations in my chart.
Please note that this is an "ideal" trade and it doesn't happen like that all the time... but it gives you an idea of how I analyze it.
Feel free to comment/like it if you find it valuable!
TIP
Be-careful long traders on ITC. Price can be trade in range.
long-term trend is downward
expected no trading activities above attraction line.
price can rest between lower bound and attraction line.
project will help to how stock can perfect.
Advised to traders and investors: be careful to take long.
The possibility of something is cooking in Bitcoin kitchen...!All the major resistance and support plotted on the chart.
The price breaking out any of these R 9083 and R 8398 will give us new direction of trend .
The excess/penetration has been seen out side of parallel channel/value area. The price can be dump and damp between Upper Bound: Parallel Channel and Lower Bound: Parallel Channel.
Traders can trade both either buy at pepper bound or sell at lower bound until breakout the channel with confirmation.
Let take a closest look with different angles:
Very Low Volume
Narrow range in price with series of almost no body of candle.
price rotation
remarkable point: price falling with vol. volume before the price rotation.
---> You will get big move shortly with volume surged .
Inflation Expectations vs DXY vs Oil update - Feb 2020Inf Expectations and DXY are saying Oil's bounce is unlikely to last
=> Short Oil ???
GLD: SPDR Gold TrustM timeframe long-term BULL
W timeframe overbought mid-term BEAR
D timeframe overextended short-term BEAR
SUPPLY price reached suppy zone short-term BEAR
CORRECTION 50% fib retracement short-term BEAR
RSI overbought short-term BEAR
MACD divergence turning negative short-term BEAR
EXPECTED INFLATION after rate cuts long-term BULL
GDX short interest increased BEAR
GOLD/DXY ratio decreasing short-term BEAR
GLD shares otstanding decreasing BEAR
TIP lagging behind GC1! futures NEUTRAL
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How to compare various instruments in one chartIt is good idea to compare instruments to get a deeper insight into potential big moves. In this 3 min tutorial I show how to create four scales on the right of the chart for four instruments.
To add instruments you use the compare button.
Then us a drop down arrow on the instrument at top left to find Pin to scale.
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: Possible Top. Sell opportunity.TIP has potentially priced a top on the 2019 aggressive rally that started last with last November's bottom. 4H is already pulling back STOCHRSI = 8.271, STOCH = 41.432). The Golden cross took place in March and the MA50 has been acting as a Support since then. Based on the last two occurrences, the price should now consolidate around the 1D MA50 before making a more aggressive sell move into the new bear market. Our first TP is 113.30.
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Treasury Inflation-Backed Securities Sending a Signal #Gold $TIPIn "Emerging Markets Lead U.S. Inflation," it was pointed out that emerging market equities (EEM) act as a leading indicator to U.S. inflation by an average of 6.5 months. In 2018, emerging markets peaked in January, and U.S. inflation saw its multi-year high roll over.
In higher inflation environments, capital inflows to emerging markets primarily due to the fact many are commodity producers. When looking at capital flows into EM-nations and real treasury term premia, inflows are partly responsible for driving up interest rates.
Money flows into emerging markets continues to has a strong relationship with Chinese monetary policy.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) may be sending the signal that last year's deflationary push in asset prices and commodities aren't over. These bonds are indexed to inflation and backed by the U.S. government as the bond's par value adjusts with the inflation rate.
TIPS generally move with the trajectory with consumer prices (CPI), but instruments like iShares TIPS Bond (TIP) ETF gives a real-time, market-based look at inflation expectations; and it's not stellar.
TIP price action has traded sideways since the 2012 all-time high that coincided with the sharp rebound in real yields (nominal interest rate minus inflation). The quick breakdown in 2018 was largely due to the rapid rise in real yields, which is something I predicted going back to December 2017.
The inverse correlation with 5-year real yield and TIP is quite apparent and directly affects gold prices. If TIP remains under 110, price action will be consolidating underneath a decade-long former support - now resistance - that will likely play out unless the Federal Reserve reverses their monetary tightening, which is disinflationary by nature.
5-Year Real Yields & TIP
The further breakdown and selling of inflation-protected securities will probabilistically become unavoidable unless the trajectory of both growth and inflation accelerate and inflation, currently 190 bps in the U.S., outpace consumer prices.
If I were to apply the TACVOL process to 5-year real yields, the risk would be to the upside 122 bps/79 bps. This is not to suggest real yields could not fall, but that would be up to how the macro drivers filter throughout the data. In that case, TACVOL would be updated immediately.
What it is suggesting is that real yields are approaching the intermediate range bottom, and the combination of tighter financial conditions/monetary policy and falling consumer prices are not done running its course.
Unless, TIP can gain momentum from current levels, we could see a repeat of 2015.
Subscribe to The Macro Strategist and find out more about real yields and how they affect a currency and gold prices.