TIP
Ratio US10Y bond with protected for inflation oneReflation trade entering possible supply area $IEF, $TIP
GBPJPY Breaking out the WedgeHi Friends, as you can see that GBPJPY is in pressure from last week and now I think I will break the falling wedge If it breaks and close in a BEARISH below the RED ZONE it's a good opportunity for a short here with target of 50.00% Fibo Level.
Good Luck.
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DXY USDOLLAR INDEX : LONG : FIBONACCIWe are currently bouncing on support right now so expect bullish movement very soon. I'm deadass guys. Especially because price hits the 618 fibonacci retracement on our 4hr chart when using the last swing like I did. You're welcome ;)
TIP monthly - fully bullish look - 7/30/2016TIP breaks out of the range. Since bottomed last December, TIP appreciated almost 7%. Rising inflation expectation is good for precious metal and commodities.
TIP monthly - breaking out - 6/30/2016TIP is now having fully bullish look. This may confirm the bullish case for commodities and precious metals, and this may spell trouble for bonds.
TIP weekly - breaking out - 3/18/2016TIP finally breaks out. It validated the weak dollar, strong gold, and maybe anticipating some form of QE (given the weakening economy).
TIP monthly - still looks weak - 2/9/2016A weaker inflation indicates weak demands, and weak economy. And it will be bad news for housing, for commodities, etc. So let's hope this thing can turn around soon.
TIP monthly - where is the inflation? - 8/19/2015TIP lost another dollar and change this month (so far), 10 month MA is pointing downward. RSI broke trend and MACD is negative. So Fed can raise rate at this point? I do not think so.
Also no point for Fed to raise rate at a time when commodities are crashing, and China is floating their currency down.
I expect more unwinding of rate hike expectation, and thus weaker dollar, stronger commodities, stronger emerging market and stronger bonds.
TIP monthly update - bearish - 6/5/2015TIP started June with a bearish tone with support broken (tentatively). Note the serial lower highs since last October and downward pointing 10 month MA. RSI is weakening with broken support and MACD is turning negative (so far).
With this backdrop I highly doubt the Fed will raise rate any time soon, as that makes no sense.
TIP monthly - bearish - 5/20/2015TIP is weakening since the start of the year and is now breaking the red support. TIP usually is used to hedge inflation risk for bond investors (it has 13.68 B asset with a yield of 1.63%). Note the 10 MA is rolling over and now pointing down.
If TIP is falling, meaning investors do not worry about unexpected inflation. I think this is one reason the Fed may not raise interest rate any time soon.
TIP monthly - inflation gauge - 4/15/2015going a bit higher since last update... will be very bullish if blue lines are cleared (meaning higher inflation figure, and/or expectation). Note 10 MA is already cleared.
DXY watch - 11/26/2014Dollar faces double resistance with lost momentum. Meanwhile assets inversely correlated with dollar seem to be doing better.
If dollar is weakening in the next several months, these assets may be favorable. Conversely if dollar breaks out and continue to strengthen, these assets will be pressured even more. I will watch the red support lines closely.
Dollar vs. inflationDollar is getting stronger recently, but a stronger dollar does not mean much if it is weaker than inflation. This DXY/TIP ratio chart tries to show that technically dollar is rising but is still weak comparing with inflation protection bond. Before I hold dollar for long term investing, I would like to see at least:
. the ratio breaks the blue resistance line to the up side.
. Stoch turns up above 30.
. MACD turns up and above 0.
. RSI breaks the blue resistance line to the upside and the value is above 50.
Assets that performed well during first half of 2007 bear marketEnergy (VDE), material (VAW), commodities (DJP), inflation protection (TIP), gold (GLD) and bond (TLT).
I am not certain why (probably because of weaker dollar, as shown on the chart), given this, current dollar and rate on their monthly charts are indeed very weak so can these assets perform well during first half of next bear market? Only time can tell. Good Luck!
GLD/DXY indicates that GLD is more favorableCoincidentally, TIP has a reverse head and shoulder breakout. This seems to suggest inflation expectation is on the rise, and owning GLD is more favorable than owning DXY (dollar).
