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TLT

Weekly Leading Indicators: BEARISHManaged to streamline down to these couple of charts for a set of leading indicators. Simple trend analysis and techincals are being used here for Weekly charts and so weekly analysis is appropriate to set the stage for a top down view. First up (on the top right corner) is the Combined US equities chart that shows a strong marubozu the previous week (from elections outcome). However, the following week was not a confirmation, but instead casts doubt on the sustainability of the spike to rally on. Point being, the massive breakout is met with a Dark Cloud Cover that breaks back into the Decision Box (purple box) which was previously marked out for the consolidation range boundaries. Typically when a breakout is followed by a breakin, it tends to follow through to the other end... a break down from the box support. Yellow circle is where it should go through or bounce at. What gives on this is that the following Leading indicators are eluding to... SG10Y Govt Bond Yields The uncanny correlation of this to the US Equities Indexes is remarkable and have been a hallmark of my recent posts and analyses. Here we have a breakout of the trendline resistance. Means equity markets are going Bear. RED Flag High Yield Bonds ETF (JNK) JNK looks to break the uptrend trailstop line, with a lower high that now has a Dark Cloud Cover as well. AMBER Flag TIPS and TLT Both have broken uptrend trailstops and are downtrending with a recent low. These are well known market leading indicators. RED Flags Semiconductor ETF (SOXL) Noted, and personal favourite, SOXL is clearly bearish from simple candlestick patterns. RED Flag So, overall, we have Leads telling us it is BEARISH again. Heads up!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Time to buy $TLT for a trade to $100?I think we could see a short term rally in $TLT. On low timeframes today, it looks like we've formed a double bottom and that price is bouncing off of the lower trend line. I think we could see a rally up into the $100-102 region from here. My base case is for price to reject that region and then form one more leg lower before a sustainable bounce in bonds. Let's see how it plays out. I marked off both levels to the upside and to the downside to account for both scenarios once price has broken out of the structure.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
1
The Best Explanation of The Bond Market You're Ever Gonna Get12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea. The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very large and complex system does. It has a trend around which it travels but in decades and centuries not years. It isn't complicated, but it is extremely slow. There are 2 phases and a 5,000 year long trend. It goes up. It goes down. Over the course of centuries it declines. In the down phase, it stays below trend and does the exact opposite in the opposite phase. A kindergartener can trade this thing. Currently the phase is turning over from a down phase that lasted from 1980 to 2020, and entering into a new up phase that will most likely last for 3-4 decades. Trading it: buy secondary market long duration government bonds at the bond yield 3 standard deviation line and sell at the trend. Repeat for the next 30-40 years. Easy peasy.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
Opening (IRA): TLT December 20th 88 Covered Call... for a 86.84 debit. Comments: High IVR at 74.8% plus weakness. Looking to grab both the November 1st and December 1st dividends here while I twiddle my thumbs waiting for the general election to pass, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 86.84 Max Profit (Excluding Dividends): 1.16 Max Profit (With Dividends): 1.80 ROC at Max Excluding Dividends: 1.34% ROC at Max (With Dividends): 2.07% Immediately post-fill, I put in a GTC order to take profit at .20 short of max or 87.80, but may take if off after the December dividend drops if something more "sexy" gives me that come hither look.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Market Leading Indicators - suggests DOWNThis is my most summarized panel of leading indicators which I use to assist in the determination of market projections, over and above technical indicators. The SG10Y is about to break out The JNK bonds are breaking down Both TIPS and TLT have already broken down the uptrend support (bearish trend now) The SOXL (semicon ETF) and the combined US Equities are just about to keel over. Leads have turned down or are at the turning point. Heads up!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed AwakeningStocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced. Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February. These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table. Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2. The main technical chart is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format/ With 11782 total number of holdings, AGG is US bond market in miniature. Fears & Greed Awakening. 👉 VIX and VXN are sitting closer to their important levels, 20 and 25 points respectively. 👉 VIX to 50-Day VIX SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months. 👉 VXN to 50-Day VXN SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months. 👉 Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns slumped almost to Zero. Technical observations 👉 AGG technical graph indicates on huge developing Reversed Head-and-Shoulders, with 2-year highs breakthrough. 👉 The nearest target could be considered is multi top, around $108 mark. 👉 In mid- to long term it could be good for stock indices and markets, despite of possible turbulence and seismic activity.
AMEX:AGG
by Pandorra
TLT +50% Every Time This Happens and It's Happening NowTLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close) It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on allocation, as in Bonds plus Equities, you start making some progress. That's exactly what this chart represents; where the money is going and when. Hint: it's going into Bonds. Soon. BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time) is here
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by MarkLefevre
2