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TLT

Opening (IRA): TLT March 21st 81 Covered Call... for a 79.98 debit. Comments: Adding a "rung" in March at a break even better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 79.98/share Max Profit (Excluding Dividends): 1.02 ROC at Max (Excluding Dividends): 1.28% Generally looking to roll out-of-the-money short call down and out for a credit that is greater than the amount of strike destruction at expiry to generate a quasi-free cash flow setup consisting of (a) short call premium; and (b) dividends. This differs somewhat than what I would ordinarily do, which is generally money/take/run at 50% max.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
2
TLT long, long and only long, don't give up and keep it with youAgain me and again my TLT))) First of all we should keep safety and creditworthiness U.S. Treasuries are backed by the U.S. government, making them one of the safest investments globally. They are considered risk-free in terms of credit risk, as the U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt. The second one and the most important point - we have ATTRACTIVE Yield Opportunities 10y 4.77% 20y 5.041% 30y 4.959% Starting from the 1980s, this is the second time the Fed is cutting interest rates while yields are rising. Of course, this carries certain risks, and experienced investors know that the 1980s were not the best times for reliable investments. The market is anticipating a new wave of inflation, and professional participants do not agree with the Fed's 1% cut. Especially with the 50-basis-point decision in September. Up to this point, many believe that the fight against inflation has failed, and some banks even fear that not only will the rates remain unchanged, but further hikes are possible. No, no, and once again, no. With inflation at 3% or a bit higher, rates of 4.5% cannot logically rise further. They might remain unchanged for an extended period or be reduced slightly, taking macroeconomic indicators into account. Currently, the market is not moving out of fear of a strong labor market or high inflation but exclusively out of fears related to the Trump administration. These include promises of new sanctions, tough measures against migration, and tax relief. I honestly believe that of the aforementioned, only the tax relief will be fully implemented. There will be a few formal sanctions, primarily targeting China, while migration policies will remain election promises and not actionable programs. In the face of all this, we have very low TLT and very high yields for 20+ or even 10y, which are truly worth our bid.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
2
Strategy Winter — Spring 2025. S&P500 Index Choking DiagonalUS markets were shacked on Friday, January 10th, after the December NFP jobs report came in much stronger than expected. The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in November, although it remains above its 6-month simple moving average. The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023. The strong payrolls report further strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates again until at least 2025. The move in stocks and bonds is a continuation of what has been happening in recent weeks: After a period of mega-euphoric optimism, investors have begun to expect higher inflation driven by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade and fiscal policies. If bond yields continue to rise, Americans will feel the brunt of it. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets now expect just one rate cut of 25 basis points this year, down from as many as three at the end of last year. The odds of no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled to 28% on Friday morning. The dollar index TVC:DXY skyrocketed to the Moon, while the yield on 10-year U.S. sovereign bonds TVC:TNX stays well above 4.5%. Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such turbulence for a long time, as discussed in the previously published idea “Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point” . I have to remind that the financial market had tough weeks in December 2024, but it could also face a tough year in 2025, as I noted then. The market was on track for its worst weeks in years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market internals, it was clear that the damage had been done well before the December Fed meeting – and this signal was a historical indicator of tough times ahead. Thus, Dow Jones Futures CBOT_MINI:YM1! ended 2024 with the 3rd RED WEEK in a row, forming the Bearish Candlestick Pattern "Three Black Crows" on the weekly timeframe, which developed, remarkably, from the all-time highs of the Dow Jones index. Last week, Dow Jones Futures ended with the 6th RED WEEK in a row - and this is a rather rare event. Historical backtest analysis over the past 25 years shows that this can lead to a further (at least) 10-percent drop for the Top-30 stock club. Bulls have done a lot of work, advanced more than 2,000 points in 2023-24, for the S&P500 index. However they were unable to finalize their achievements confidently above the round 6-thousand mark by the end of 2024. By the way, the same inability in Bitcoin to finalize 2024 above the round 100,000 mark is now repeatedly throwing the market back to lower price marks, as discussed in the recently published idea. The main technical chart indicates a suffocating bearish diagonal in development for the S&P500 index, with targets for decline down to 5'250 points.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Pandorra
DJIA Index. Shake it. Bake it. Booty Quake It. Roll It AroundMarkets were shaked this Friday after the December employment report came in much stronger than expected. The economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. The Nasdaq 100 immediately dropped by about 1%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield spiked nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, representing its highest level since October 2023. The strong payroll report further strengthened the case for no more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, at least for 2025. The moves in stocks and bonds are a continuation of what's been seen in recent weeks: Following a period of euphoric optimism, investors have started to anticipate higher inflation stemming from President Donald Trump's proposed trade and fiscal policies. If the upward move in bond yields continues, Americans will feel it in a big way. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets now expect just one 25-basis point interest rate cut this year, down from expectations late last year of as many as three. The chances that there will be no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled Friday morning to 28%. Dollar index TVC:DXY rockets to the moon, while the 10-yr TVC:TNX strongly above 4.5%. Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such a turbulence, as it's been discussed in earlier posted idea "Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point" . I remember, the financial market has had a tough weeks in last December, 2024, but it might also be in store for a tough year in 2025, as I noted those time. The market was on track for its worst weeks over years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market's internals, it was clear that damage had been inflicted well before the Fed's Wednesday meeting — and the signal is a historic indicator of tough times ahead. Dow Jones Futures has ended 6th straight RED WEEK in a row - the quite rare event. The historical back test analysis over last 25 years indicates, it could lead to further (at least) 10 percent decline for Top-30 stock club. The major technical graph indicates on a bearish trend in development, where major 200-week SMA support is nearly 35'700 points in this time.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Pandorra
$TLT long to 110 on February 20, 2025Everything is on the chart. I am calling for TLT to rally from today's closing price of $86 to $110 by Thursday, February 20, 2025. The Javier Milei Argentina experiment has been a huge success for Argentina, who is buddy buddy with the J's and Elon Musk, both of whom are buddy buddy with Trump. At the time of this writing, $105 calls for 2/21/2025 are .05 each. If the target hits, they will be worth $5.0, for a total return of 10,000% (10X). On the weekly chart, you can see the 200 week SMA coincides with my level on that date as well. Feel free to share.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by FomoFutures
4
Weelky Leading Indicators are NOT BullishThe Weekly Leading Indicators have had broken into Bearish mode. SG10Y have broken up of a trendline TIPS and TLT have broken down support JNK similarly broke down of support The combined US Equities weekly chart are at an indecision range, but daily chart analyis tells of a more bearish story. SOXL is holding up somewhat though. So while all 4 Leading Indicators are red flagging. The Indices have yet to respond. Watch for it... and be careful. Happy New Year 2025!
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
Opening (IRA): TLT April 17th 82 Covered Call... for an 80.60 debit. Comments: Laddering out at strikes better than what I currently have on (Feb 87's, March 84's). Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short calls. Plus, gotta be in shares to grab that divvy. Metrics: Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 80.60/shares Max Profit: 1.40 ROC at Max: 1.74% (excluding dividends) Ordinarily, I take profit at 50% max, but will wait until the dividend immediately preceding the monthly expiry drops before considering taking profit.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Update: TLT March 21st 95 Covered CallsA "refresh" of a fairly long-running cash flow setup, with the cash flow emanating from (a) short call premium and (b) dividends. As of the 12/18/24 dividend, my break even is at 85.81 (including dividends). (See Post Below). One of my New Year's resolutions is to be a little more patient and roll out the short call on approaching worthless, targeting the short call strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit, but my mouse hand occasionally seems to have a mind of its own ... .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Weekly Indicator Panel WARNED last weekend...ALL Red Flags already, as warned by my panel of leading indicators. You would see that all threshold have been triggered and are clearly red flags IF the week closes at current levels. The week has not ended, but it appears bad enough. There should be an attempt tp recover somewhat, but overall appears that Santa Claus might crash this rally this year. Furthermore, the year end and year start are keen indicators of the year ahead as well... so watch closely.
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
Opening (IRA): TLT February 21st 87 Covered Call... for a 85.97 debit. Comments: Going long at or near November lows, selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, with the built-in defense of the short call. I'm also looking to snag the January and potentially the February dividends here. This is a bit longer-dated than I ordinarily like to go, but I'm not doing a ton here besides waiting for January setups to come in/be managed. The obvious variant is to sell the standard -30 delta against: TLT Feb 21st 94 covered call, 89.72 debit, 4.28 max. 4.77% ROC at max where the short call is paying >1% of the strike price in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 85.97/share Max Profit (ex. dividends): 1.03 ROC at Max: 1.20% 50% Max: .52 ROC at 50% Max: .60% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max after at least the January dividend drops.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Weekly Leading Indicator Panel warns...Reviewing the Weekly charts, especially for the leading indicators, it appears that there is a warning of downside risk imminent. SG10Y bond yield are about to break out. JNK TLT and TIP all have bearish engilfing that covers the previous gap up. Thing is, the coombined US equities chart is somewhat bullish, with a rough bearish harami at the bearish best indication. Even SOXL appears to be bullish somewhat... No action needed, but just an early warning given to set the boundaries yet again... looks like the Christmas Rally just fizzled out.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
Risk-On or Risk-Off? Stocks vs. Bonds Introduction: With stocks reaching new all-time highs and market sentiment edging into euphoria, it's an opportune time to revisit a classic risk-on/risk-off indicator: the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . This ratio provides a clear view of investor sentiment: Risk-On: When SPY outperforms TLT, investors favor equities for their higher potential returns. Risk-Off: When TLT outperforms SPY, it reflects rising risk aversion and a move toward safer assets like bonds. Analysis: Uptrend Intact: Currently, the SPY-to-TLT ratio remains in a clear uptrend, defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. This sustained upward momentum signals continued confidence in equities. Ascending Channel: The ratio is also rising within an ascending price channel, a bullish continuation pattern. As long as this structure holds, the market can be interpreted as firmly in risk-on mode. What to Watch: Channel Support: A breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary would be the first sign of caution. Higher Highs: If the ratio continues to push upward, it would confirm further bullish sentiment in equities. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite, and its sustained uptrend within the ascending channel is a clear signal of the market’s risk-on posture. As long as this trend holds, equities remain in a favorable position. However, traders should stay vigilant for any signs of a breakdown, which could hint at rising market caution. Are you aligned with this risk-on outlook, or do you see potential cracks forming? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key trendlines for support and resistance) Tags: #SPY #TLT #RiskOn #RiskOff #Stocks #Bonds #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
Opening (IRA): TLT December 20th 88 Covered Call... for a 86.84 debit. Comments: High IVR at 74.8% plus weakness. Looking to grab both the November 1st and December 1st dividends here while I twiddle my thumbs waiting for the general election to pass, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 86.84 Max Profit (Excluding Dividends): 1.16 Max Profit (With Dividends): 1.80 ROC at Max Excluding Dividends: 1.34% ROC at Max (With Dividends): 2.07% Immediately post-fill, I put in a GTC order to take profit at .20 short of max or 87.80, but may take if off after the December dividend drops if something more "sexy" gives me that come hither look.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
2
Risk Appetite at a Crossroads: SPY vs. TLT Nears Key ResistanceIntroduction: A classic market indicator for gauging risk appetite is the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . The premise is simple yet powerful: when stocks outperform bonds, the market is in a "risk-on" environment, favoring equities. Conversely, when bonds outperform stocks, it signals a "risk-off" environment, favoring safety. For years, this ratio has trended upward within an ascending price channel, reflecting the dominance of equities over bonds in delivering superior returns. However, the ratio is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a critical juncture for assessing the next phase of market dynamics. Analysis: Risk-On vs. Risk-Off: The SPY-to-TLT ratio provides a clear view of market sentiment. A rising ratio reflects confidence in equities, while a declining ratio indicates a shift toward safety in bonds. Long-Term Uptrend: The ratio has been in a well-defined uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. This trend underscores the market's preference for stocks over bonds in recent years. Current Situation: As the ratio nears the upper boundary of its price channel, the potential for a slowdown or reversal increases. While the long-term uptrend remains intact, a pullback could signal a temporary period where bonds (TLT) outperform stocks (SPY). Interest Rate Outlook: With interest rates potentially declining next year, bonds could see increased demand. However, as long as the ratio remains within its channel and continues to rise, the "risk-on" environment remains dominant. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is nearing a pivotal level that could influence market sentiment in the coming months. While the "risk-on" trend remains intact for now, a shift in dynamics could occur if the ratio fails to break through its resistance. Traders and investors should monitor this ratio closely to navigate potential shifts between equity and bond performance. What’s your outlook on this key indicator? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key resistance and support levels) Tags: #RiskAppetite #Stocks #Bonds #SPY #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed Awakening. Series IIIt's gone 3 weeks or so, since Mr. Trump has secured a win over his Democrat-rival Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as it declared by the Associated Press. Since that, a lot of stocks soared in a meme-style mode, while Bitcoin almost cleared $100,000 and Dogecoin soared amid Trump-fueled crypto rally. However macro data still stoke fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too slow with cutting interest rates. Non-farm payroll added just 12K new places last month. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.5%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. Fresh ISM release is scheduled on Dec 02, 2024 (47.5 points forecasted), and labor market data is on the radars on Friday, Dec 06 (+183K non-farm payroll forecasted). The main technical graph is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format, and it indicates on Reversed Head-and-Shoulders technical structure in development, as it's been discussed in earlier published ideas. Moreover, huge 200-Week SMA breakthrough is on the investments radars also. What does it mean for Bond Market?.. Potentially "Good", to jump to all-time high. ... and for Stock Market?.. Potentially "Also Good", until it reach the fever pitch.
AMEX:AGG
by Pandorra
Weekly Leading Indicators: BEARISHManaged to streamline down to these couple of charts for a set of leading indicators. Simple trend analysis and techincals are being used here for Weekly charts and so weekly analysis is appropriate to set the stage for a top down view. First up (on the top right corner) is the Combined US equities chart that shows a strong marubozu the previous week (from elections outcome). However, the following week was not a confirmation, but instead casts doubt on the sustainability of the spike to rally on. Point being, the massive breakout is met with a Dark Cloud Cover that breaks back into the Decision Box (purple box) which was previously marked out for the consolidation range boundaries. Typically when a breakout is followed by a breakin, it tends to follow through to the other end... a break down from the box support. Yellow circle is where it should go through or bounce at. What gives on this is that the following Leading indicators are eluding to... SG10Y Govt Bond Yields The uncanny correlation of this to the US Equities Indexes is remarkable and have been a hallmark of my recent posts and analyses. Here we have a breakout of the trendline resistance. Means equity markets are going Bear. RED Flag High Yield Bonds ETF (JNK) JNK looks to break the uptrend trailstop line, with a lower high that now has a Dark Cloud Cover as well. AMBER Flag TIPS and TLT Both have broken uptrend trailstops and are downtrending with a recent low. These are well known market leading indicators. RED Flags Semiconductor ETF (SOXL) Noted, and personal favourite, SOXL is clearly bearish from simple candlestick patterns. RED Flag So, overall, we have Leads telling us it is BEARISH again. Heads up!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Time to buy $TLT for a trade to $100?I think we could see a short term rally in $TLT. On low timeframes today, it looks like we've formed a double bottom and that price is bouncing off of the lower trend line. I think we could see a rally up into the $100-102 region from here. My base case is for price to reject that region and then form one more leg lower before a sustainable bounce in bonds. Let's see how it plays out. I marked off both levels to the upside and to the downside to account for both scenarios once price has broken out of the structure.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
7