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S&P500 against Bonds during Rate Hikes.This chart displays the ratio of S&P500 against the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF on the 1W time-frame. The green trend-line represents the Federal Funds Rate. The RSI on the pane below the chart, is illustrated on the 1M time-frame and based on the Channel Down it has been since May 2021, it resembles more the price action of late 2003/2004. Interestingly enough, it was in mid 2004 that the Fed Rate has started to rise following the stock market recovery from the DotCom crash. The Fibonacci Channel with the 0.236, 0.382, 05, 0.618, 0.786 retracement levels is applied on this ratio and since the stock market recovery from the 2007/08 Subprime Mortgage crisis, the Fib 0.618 band was the Resistance. Now it appears that we have moved a level higher on the 0.786 Fib. This model shows that there is no major crash ahead of us and most likely we will trade within those bands for a few years more before a bigger correction/ recession on the stock market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
5
ZN - 10 Year Note 2 HourNews this coming week will impact Markets in a broad fashion. ZN can see a larger RT to overhead POs as can ZB (30Yr) should The FED engage in larger YCC interventions, and I believe they will intervene heavily. Macro Data Ahead: MONDAY, MAY 16 8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index May TUESDAY, MAY 17 8:30 am Retail sales April -- 0.8% 8:30 am Retail sales excluding vehicles April 9:15 am Industrial production index April 9:15 am Capacity utilization April 10 am NAHB home builders' index May 10 am Business inventories (revision) March WEDNESDAY, MAY 18 8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) April 8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) April 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index May THURSDAY, MAY 19 8:30 am Initial jobless claims May 14 8:30 am Continuing jobless claims May 7 10 am Existing home sales (SAAR) April FRIDAY, MAY 20 8:30 am Advance services report Q1
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
TLT - 2 Hour PThe 20 Year ETF Bond has declined significantly in 2022. Longer-term I anticipate 6% as the Primary PO for the 10 Year Note. TLT will head well below 100 into October 2023, breaking 92s will provide an immediate break - an immense break. ______________________________________________________ Sub 50 is an absolute on Mid Curve to 6%. Declining from 173.69 to 112.62 is simply the 1st in a Series of lower lows ahead. I do, however, anticipate a counter-trend to 2.12 to 2.26. TLT remains the JUNK ETF, chased by the inexperienced traders seeking safety. Hopefully, this herd is beginning to see the Cliff ahead as the Bond Buffalo will be run up the plains mesa to their ultimate deaths. 132 should limit the Upside ST.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
Leading Indicators Reversal Still BearishThe JNK ETF looks like it is heading further down still -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow through after closing at a low -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF looks a tad bearish too -> Bearish for equities The VALUG looking to fail support, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF continue down draft-> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is still diving -> still not seeing any flight to safety. The VIX just broke out above the trendline -> very Bearish for equities The HG1! copper futures downtrending Overall, rather Bearish bias on equities
TVC:VIX
by Auguraltrader
Have Bond yields Hit the High?I'm not an expert here, but this level of bond yields has not been breached to the upside since 2018, and before that 2011. look at the lovely way the Fibonacci levels hit every pullback in the recent rise and culminate precisely here at 2.95% If we do continue to the upside, the last level of support, which would now become resistance is marked at 3.89% Another interesting fact... The SPY and QQQ have both erased all gains of the prior year. Look at a percentage chart for 1 year and you will see we have MAYBE 2-3% drop left. Fact #3 the market (spy/qqq) will drop on average 10% for every full point rate hike forecasted. We have very nearly priced in two FULL rate hikes or every single bit of expected rate hike forecasted by the Fed so far.
TVC:US10YLong
by Sacyourking
1
TLT (Elliot Wave - Analysis) Applying simple Elliot wave analysis, I see an ABC pattern with a failed 5 wave move up marked as X wave, the first ABC is then labeled as W and projected 1:1 ratio from top of (X) brings us down to the box area, where TLT is most likely to find support (1:1 & 1.236 Fib ratio). I see the price dropping without retest of major resistances that it broke through, and a price fall in a straight line is unsustainable, its like stretching a rubber band and eventually price will rebound violently. I would give it a 60% probability of reversal at that point and daily bullish divergence should be a very strong sign of imminent reversal. Cheers
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by Elliot618
Bond yields in the era of high inflationAs you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as all kinds of maturities are rising at the same time and are rising pretty fast. The trend is showing no signs of exhaustion and this could get pretty ugly for the world economy, as the Fed has barely raised rates so far and they are threatening to raise rates by 0.5% at every meeting in 2022. Many analysts claim that the bond market is broken and that yields will rise even further, but are they correct? Well the truth is that the way bond market topped (yields bottomed) in March 2020 is definitely an indication that a bull market is over. Currently the market has broken below most major support lines and seems to be accelerating rather than decelerating, while the correction from the peak is indicating that the bull market is over, as during bull markets corrections tend to stay within a certain range, and this correction is way larger than any previous corrections. At the same time the 2y year yields are above 2.5%, a level that they 'shouldn't' have broken if the bond bull was intact. The reason behind this is that usually 2y bond yields would never go above the peak of the Fed Funds Rate and during the last hiking cycle the FFR had peak at 2.5%. Currently the 2y yields look like the formed the perfect round bottom (bullish technical pattern) and have broken above their downwards channel and could also be headed higher in the medium to long term (an indication that the bond bull could be over). However not everything is really bearish for bonds at the moment and there is some hope for the bull market, even if that means we only get a strong bounce before going lower. As the 10y and 30y yields haven't broken above their resistance levels yet, it might be a good time to start buying bonds. Why? Well as yields are at resistance, bonds are close to support. The actual bonds are so oversold, that the current move might be getting totally irrational. Yes inflation is going up, yes inflation could go higher and inflation expectations keep rising, but the rate of inflation could come down. Not only that, but the Fed is so trapped that everyone knows they can't really raise rates much more or sell bonds without breaking the market. Financial conditions have already tightened so much, that investors will eventually run to the safety of bonds which finally have a pretty attractive yield. Of course my reasoning doesn't just rely on some random fundamental analysis, but also some technical factors. The first one has to do with how this break of the trendline could be a trap and this move is headed straight into a very important area in which there is strong support. On TLT there is a major gap at an area that was support, it was broken and then the market quickly closed back above it. That's the perfect place to go long. The second one has to do with the fact that the yield curve had inverted and has now un-inverted itself. Usually inversions happen close to the bottom of the bond market (peak in yields) and therefore this could be another useful signal that a bottom isn't far away. Again this doesn't mean that someone has to go long right now or go long big, just that maybe its time to cut down shorts and put on some small longs. Personally I like to move between being a bond bull or bear based on the data and not have dogmatic views about what will happen in the future. Finally I'd like to talk a bit about junk bonds, which are at the same level they were when the Fed had raised rates at 2.5% and kept saying that they would keep hiking. With so much debt in the world, the Fed threatening to keep hiking rates and the global economy being in shambles due to Covid-19, aging demographics, supply chain issues, lockdowns in China, the Russia-Ukraine war and commodity shortages, it is hard for someone to really see how owning junk bonds is a good long term bet here. Shorting junk bonds is probably the best bet someone could take at this stage, if he/she believes that there is going to be a major collapse either in the stock market or the bond market. What I find very interesting is how resilient American companies have proven to be, and how after so many major crashes since 2008, now junk bonds are rallying against treasuries. By looking at the HYG/TLT ratio, we can see how they have outperformed since the March 2020 crash, potentially due to how much the US government has support those companies and how much more the private sector has benefited from low rates and money printing compared to the public sector. By adding to the mix how strong stocks have been over the last 2 years despite all the negative events, we can make sense of why junk bonds are outperforming us treasuries. Maybe this is also a major sign that buying stocks is a much better idea in the long term than buying bonds, and that the stock bull market is still intact, but that's a topic which I will discuss in another idea. In conclusion, the bond bull could be over. There are several signs indicating extreme weakness in bonds as inflation expectations keep rising and the Fed is unwilling to support the bond market. Yet we are at levels that not buying bonds seems like the wrong decision, even if buying them would only for a short time period only.
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro
2's 10's INVERSION - THE TRUTH😲 2's 10's INVERSIO N😲 A journalist's favourite recession indicator, the “2’s 10’s curve” inverted earlier this month… As the story goes, 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙖 𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 within 12-24months 😲 👉 But this time… it’s different 😅 Here’s the chart -> (FRED-FRED:T10Y2Y) To clarify, I’m not saying there won’t be a recession, or NSDQ100 crash, in fact it’s a real possibility. But the 2’s 10’s chart is not a good indicator to rely on. WHAT IS THE YEILD CURVE ⤴ The yield curve is just a curve plotted on a graph of the interest paid on debt. The X-axis being the duration of the debt (e.g. a 2yr loan and 3yr loan etc.) and the Y-axis being the interest (e.g. 1%, 2%, 3% etc.). 2️⃣ - 2’s is shorthand for the 2 year US Treasury Note (a 2 year loan to the US gov.) 🔟 - 10’s is shorthand for the 10 year US Treasury Note. 🤔 HOW STRANGE It’s an odd phenomenon that a shorter term loan could pay higher interest than a longer term loan - because why would someone want to lend money for a longer time at a lower interest rate 🤷 But this - otherwise accurate signal for a recession - is no longer credible as a market indicator. Currently the yield curve is (heavily) distorted, with central banks around the world purchasing their own bonds (treasury notes). On top of that the FED has clearly stated they expect the funding rate to get to about 3% in 2023 - but expects a long term rate of 2.5%. So the FED is indicating intentional inversion. It’s possible the yield curve could continue flattening or inverting, further fuelling these “recession imminent” articles. It's good to remember a small inversion is not a concern in this case. There are clear signals of what will trigger a recession, I'll cover those in a future post. (remember to add me to a Watchlist to be notified) HOW COULD YOU TRADE THIS You could short the SHY and go long IEF or TLT to take advantage of the curve normalising over time. In fact, from here, the IEF looks good even without the $SHY short position (saving fees and keeping capital free)
FRED:T10Y2YLong
by woozy-laser
1
NQ CorrolariesThe Nasdaq 100 is closely correlating to a number of Instruments - LQD UUP (DX< DXY) and TLT. JNK to a lesser degree as well. TLT has served to be the better of these corollaries. ____________________________________________________________________________________ I am waiting for a capitulation even in TLT with 10-year yields reaching 3%+ to 3.265 as the potential High. This would serve to drive the 20 Year ETF to a flush down low while providing a similar washout for NQ. It would need to happen this week, perhaps earlier than later. TECH is the weaker component relative to the ES and YM, the RTY is trading on its own and leading the drive lower - although it may be consolidating in this tight range, a breakdown would imply 16x' below 1911. This would be very bearish and reduce the probability the Indices have put in a Sustained Low.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61