Bond futures signaling a recession?Bonds are at a long term trendline and may be signaling a rush into bonds in months ahead.
This makes me approach equities very cautiously right now.
$TLT
TLT
Part 1) Don't Fight The Fed with 30 Year Interest Rate Target.There's an apparent "reverse head & shoulders pattern" on the Monthly 30 Year Yield Chart. The implication of the broken neckline is a reversal of the previous downtrend. Dow theory teaches us that the minimum upside target is the depth of the neckline to the peak of the "head." I see potential resistance at the downward resistance trendline and then again at the previous swing high. If the trend breaks back below the neckline then the whole pattern is suspect. If the reversal is legit then we can suggest the time frame to reach the target would be the width of the "head & shoulders" along the neckline. In this instance the chart is suggesting we get to the price target in about three years give or take.
Thoughts?
$TLT, Bonds long ideaAfter the whole round trip that started when covid hit, I think we are getting closer to a big, long position in bonds. The price range on the chart is where I will start buying and expecting to see seller exhaustion and trouble pushing it down further. Sentiment is really weak and you have people late to party trying to short right now to pick pennies in front of a steamroller. As an ideal target for $TLT we are talking $150 at least, so, due to the magnitude of the move, we are talking about a long term position or around 6 months out. Obviously seeing the volatility in this period and the little liquidity in markets I could be wrong, meaning the move much quicker. GL
Don't fight the FedHow many times have you heard "Don't Fight The Fed"
Well, the Fed is throwing us a gigantic fat slow-ball pitch. It's up to us as traders to hit the ball. JPow said he's raising rates. JPow said he's going to stop inflation. JPow said he's going to be data dependent. Are you fighting the Fed? Short Bonds. Stay Short on Bonds. Don't FIGHT THE FED.
Fed's Catch-22A Catch-22 is a problem for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance inherent in the problem or by a rule. This is exactly the problem the Federal Reserve faces.
Historic inflation continues to accelerate, becoming embedded into the market's expectations and risking a spiral effect
In order to stop rapid inflation, and achieve its mandate of price stability, the Fed must raise interest rates as rapidly as inflation is rising.
The Fed cannot raise interest rates as rapidly as would be needed to slow rapid inflation because it would rapidly begin to freeze liquidity in the corporate bond market.
Rapid tightening would spillover to corporate earnings, asset prices, consumer borrowing and spending, economic growth and ultimately employment, countering the Fed's mandate of maintaining stable employment.
The last time that investment grade corporate bond prices fell below their monthly EMA ribbon support was in March 2020, when the Fed made emergency purchases of corporate bond ETFs to ensure liquidity. Now the bond prices are falling below their monthly EMA ribbon support and the Fed is taking the exact opposite measure by calling for accelerated rate hikes.
Is it possible to avoid a recession at this point? Only time will tell but the charts seem to doubt it.
VIX vs TLT/LQD suggests bear is near. Back away slowly! VIX has been spiking with TLT/LQD, but the last few times just seemed to help turn it around. Looks similar to the new year, in orange. Volatility has been exploding, per usual. Every 2 years since 2008, Vix has made a new support 3pts higher, shown in solid white. I just read an analyst saying 18 is likely the bottom for some time. TLT/LQD has also been on a years long up trend as well, at a similar pace. So I'm inclined to belief this is a good spot to watch for a long scalp VIX entry, and shorts on the indices.
TLT BreakThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning.
The monthly exponential moving average (EMA) ribbons have experienced their worse violation in the fund's 20 year history. Typically the monthly EMA ribbons act as very strong long term support. The lower 55 month EMA band can act as a low risk to reward long entry. The price at which the monthly candle closes is determinative.
Fortunately, there is roughly an 80% chance that the 20-year bull trend in the price of TLT will hold in March 2022. (This probability comes from the standard deviation from the monthly mean). So for now, at least, the trend is likely to continue. However, the chart suggests that the decades-long trend is dangerously close to breaking.
TLT - Daily / An Abomination of DebtEventually, perhaps... the 007s will come to understand and accept that the Bond Bull has ended.
TLT will be reduced to a Double-Digit Midget - another JunkcCo ETF used to entangle the Kingdom of
the Rain Dilletanttes.
Nixon knew it back in 1973.
Volker knew it in 1979 when Debt to GDP was nearly Nada.
Now it's well over 200% by Non-Fuzzy Math.
Unsure how anyone conceives of buying this using any/all rationale metrics but they do.
Simply an amazing denial of reality.
To each their own.
Treasuries Continue to Toss their Cookies20-year US Treasury bonds already broke an important level of support (red arrow) and yet again, the ETF finds itself at a crucial crossroads as rates continue to rise, punishing the long-end of the yield curve.
"We" have been taught (as a country) to think "bonds are safe," yet we can clearly see that these 20-year bonds, backed by the full faith of the U.S. Government, are getting curb stomped, losing almost -20% over the course of the last 18 months.
But are bonds "safe," really? It's a seriously problem in our industry - at least I think so...
For any investor with a "Balanced" (i.e. - 60/40) or worse yet, "Conservative" (40/60) portfolio model, how do you (as the investor) react to a portfolio that's losing money, not only because stocks are falling in value, but because bonds are getting taken to the cleaners as well?
Not to go out on a limb here, but I'm going to make the assumption that most of those on TradingView are a little more knowledgable than the average investor. Furthermore, I'd go so far as to say that most are probably avoiding the bond market like we avoided COVID-19 in March of 2020.
I won't make blanket advice here and say to that, "Well.... good, then!"
However, I WILL say that at our office, we've been underweighting bonds, overweighting stocks and commodities, and tweaking the target allocations a bit (to all our models) to make up for the possibility that we might be coming out of a 35-year bull market in bonds, as the pendulum swings toward higher long-term rates 3, 5, 10+ years from now.
While we don't own any 20-year Treasuries at our office, if you DO, I'd be looking at the horizontal line in the sand below current price, which could act as a potential level of support... but if broken, all bets are off.
SECTOR ROTATION CHEAT SHEETIf bonds, stocks and commodities rotate above and below the 12 month ma then I'd assume we are in stage 5. Feel free to comment. Comments are welcome.
Leading Indicators messyWith the current global situation where there are day by day developments, the Leading Indicator panel offers similar dichotomy...
The JNK ETF is heading further down -> Bearish for equities.
The IWM ETF is likely to push down in a somewhat limited fashion -> Bearish for equities
The DJT ETF appears to be bouncing up -> Bullish for equities
The VALUG looking for more downside -> Bearish for equities
The TIPS ETF is spiking after a gap up, bullish for TIPS -> Inflation is exploding! Ususally bullish for equities, but in this instance, not likely.
The TLT ETF is bottom feeding, and there is a MACD bullish divergence -> this suggests that the fear is not yet great enough for a flight to safety. Not yet.
The VIX just broke out of a trend line and is pushing towards 45.
The HG1! copper futures suggest an anomalous accumulation of copper, maybe forerunning the equities market upwards, but otherwise, if a general reflection of commodities rocketing in prices.
Overall, Bearish bias on equities, with the chance of a quick rebound soon... but not before a spike down first.
Totally tied to the Russian Ukraine events for now.
TLT gave the DEATH CROSS last weekWe currently Bear flagging post the cross. I know fear holding bonds at the moment but honestly we need to trade the bigger theme. Bonds in bubble of all bubbles. This is going to get brutal. GOLD screaming tell, I am right.
BTC and JNK/TLT ratioI plot BLX (which is BTC) along with JNK/TLT ratio.
JNK/TLT ratio is (Junk Bonds ETF) / (20 year bond ETF ) . This ratio can serve as an indicator, to show if the market is loving risk or loving safety on a macro level. Risk on to risk off ratio. You can see that the JNK/TLT ratio correspond with market bull & bear cycles. Notice the JNK/TLT tops form a trend line, and have some correlation with BTC tops - though not to the exact day or week.
I used the green box to mark a kind of fuzzy area, where the JNK/TLT did not top at the same time as BTC.
Notice the end. Will it touch the trend line as BTC tops out? Or Is it possible it plays out like the green box range, where BTC tops, and the JNK/TLT dances along underneath the trend line a bit further, because the stock market hasn't finished its run yet? Or did BTC top at $69k already? Make your own conclusions. I'm in alt coins. :-))))))
Green lines indicate JNK/TLT tops and red lines JNK/TLT bottoms. I then drew them up to BTC looking for correlation.
I learned this chart from "Game of Trades"
debt is the problem, debt to gdp and debt to $spy too hiWill the market just stall for a decade or 2 as we work through the debt and allow the economy to catch up?
at which debt to gdp and sp500 levels will the debt level be healthy? SPY GLD SPX QQQ TLT IEF DIA VTI AAPL
TLT - JunkCo ETF / Not a BuyAs the protestations grew and delusions spread, the Wood Panel
Cult learned the hard way, it's never Sunny at the Loch.
Take heart Bond Dgens, as soon as the Equity Complex reaches it
Lows in March so will the Tilt O' Whirl.
Until then, enjoy.
You received exactly what you indicated you would not.
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2.5% will push this Junk ETF to 134s.
Leading Indicators Reversal in ProgressInteresting... in the last couple of weeks, as the Leading Indicators signaled a retracement, it appears that it may be time for a technical bounce...
JNK broke down as expected, and exceeded target. Last week's candle had a long tail recovery, and this current week is forming a rebound.
MACD still in bear territory.
IWM, DJT and VALUG all seemed to have retraced hard, and bounced off a support. MACD crossed and still in bear territory... may not be over. sus.
TIPS failed a support and does not seem to be recovering, not bouncing for the matter. MACD appears to be recovering though. This one is rather odd, so I would just note and leave it for now.
TLT is not bullish as one would expect it to be. In fact, it looks bearish, which is favorable (bullish) for the equity markets.
VIX failed a solid break out and looks to be finding 16 again, signalling the interim volatilty is over and more bullish markets to prevail.
/HG Copper futures are held in a tight range and appear to be recovering this week - if it can hold steady and break out. MACD is not yet bullish.
Overall, the leading indicators are signalling an interim bottom. perhaps a larger than expected rebound should follow in the coming weeks...
TNX - 10Yr Yields Sell Offers and Bond VX / Trouble
Bond Bagholders just never learn - this Secular Cult is doomed to extinction.
The two-year Treasury yield posted its biggest single-day jump since the
market volatility of March 2020.
Of course, this was after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell promoted
the Policy Flip Flop that the Fed will raise rates in March, and left the screen
porch door open for a quicker than-anticipated pace of rate increases.
The Dot Plot is wiggling in excitement.
IN reality, the FED will begin to Temper expectations.
It is what they do - Lie Cheat Steal / Delay.
10 Yr Yields have seen another fantastic ROC-driven Spike which advanced
well ahead of the Pre-Spring Meltup in 2021.
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TNX will provide a very large indication as to how the preset Wedge on the ES/NQ
resolve, likely this week...
Keep it in purview at all times, sudden violent reactions are to be expected.
Gamestop - MOASSIdea for GME:
- The MOASS is here.
- There is a global shortage of both US dollars and high quality collateral for debt (10-year US Treasury bonds). Why would the dollar be rising despite the high CPI prints? It's simple. To borrow, one must have collateral.
- CS's Zoltan Pozsar explained in Nov. 19th Global Money Dispatch that currently, this demand is caused by Europe. "the ECB bough too much , reducing net supply via QE, and it topped it up with TLTROs... This week, the collateral shortage in Europe spilled over into the FX swap market: on Tuesday it became cheaper for a euro deposit holder to pay a premium and swap euros for dollars and buy Treasury bills with those dollars than to buy German bills."
- While I won't go into it, it is speculated that Citadel has a great short exposure to 10-year US Treasury bonds, through their repo market arm, Palafox. May or may not be true, but it is evident that someone (probably every hedge fund) is short USTs and they are also short GME. GME by extension is a bond market volatility proxy. As long as the correlations hold, it can be traded.
- What is also true is that Large and Small speculators are record short 10 Year T Note futures, while commercials are record long. Bond market volatility is reached a level where VIX was trading at 50+ previously and is higher now than what it spiked to during GME's first squeeze to 500. Somebody is about to get to get blown up.
Bond Market Options Volatility (MOVE) leads GME by 15 days. Timing of MOASS, Dec.3:
GME losing correlation with IWM and gaining correlation with VIX and USTs (new regime):
You might get one more smash down (I expect a smash in bonds in a risk parity event before a squeeze), but I am confident this is about to happen. I'm not even going to give a price target, but it's over 4 digits for certain.
When I did analysis for my AMC trade, I correctly read the psychology of the large market participants, after reading into it more and connecting the dots, turns out they were BlackRock and Citadel:
If you are short GME, do you even know who is on the other side of your trade? Retail "apes"? No no no!
BlackRock, who manages the US assets of foreign sovereigns, and ICBC China, with a 100% correlation to GME. China is about to enter an easing phase:
GLHF
- DPT
Causation always produces a correlation. Liquidity takes time to flow through the economic machine.
NASDAQ BIG PICTURE ... ROTATION INTO VALUE IS STILL EARLYA look at the Nasdaq, SP500, and bonds after the fierce selloff that took place to start January 2022.
TLT A RUN TO SAFETY BULLISH We hit the targets this morning in tlt would trade net long from here out
