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TLT - Extreme Losses Ahead / Bond Market Peak March 2020Yields rising will only serve to further drive - ZN (10 Yr Futures), ZB (10 Yr Futures), and TLT into the Abyss. They have all broken down, with the 10 Yr Yield moving up significantly Friday back towards 1.8. We indicated over the past 7 Month the day of reckoning for Bonds was fast approaching. In November I doubled down with further warnings explaining in great detail the larger Issues for Bonds to reiterate the Intermediate and Long Term Risks. My Thesis for Bonds was they would become "perpetual" Instruments whereby Holders would be able to clip their Coupons but unable to redeem them one day in the not too distant Future. The Debt cannot be serviced, even with cheaper Dollars. We see the effects of all the excesses sloshing around. It will continue to choose valueless propositions outside of Real Estate, Equities, Metals, Commodities, Energy and Meta in the Wings. The Wind cried Mary over and overstating it was lunacy, Bonds would benefit in any serious Selling of Equities. In Sum, I was the fool, idiot, and wrong in the absolute. This has not happened, instead, the conventional analysis, dependent on a Paradigm that no longer exists... it failed and very badly. The Curve is not steepening. This is where the Bond Participants, Touts, and YouTube Tribe - got it 100% wrong. It is quite simple - there are Capital Stocks for rotation, Equities will eventually see inflows as Bonds continue their collapse. TLT will be decimated as will ZN and ZB. As Captial from Bonds flows to Equities once the breakdown finds Bond Buyers exiting the Complex as they realize their mistake(s) - this will serve to drive Equities far Higher for a short period of time. This will be the 5/5 of the Larger 5/5 for the Equities Complex. We will see a parabolic melt-up in Equities once this begins - after this correction completes. It will be the Fuel for the Final move up in the Equity Complex. The Federal Reserve will, at some point, go too far, make a large Policy mistake and then Equities will collapse. ________________________________________________________________________________________________ It takes time to turn a Battleship. Bonds have turned from the Historic End of their Supreme reign for decades. Price may range for a short period of time, but make no mistake, Bonds have entirely lost their Status Globally. If you somehow believe the Federal Reserve will support the Bond Complex, you have had multiple opportunities to see the Forrest and no longer trip on twigs. It has been detailed here since July of 2021.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
8
Leading Indicators not bullish, slow deterioration observedReviewinig the Leading Inidcator Weekly panel... The JNK has a Sell signal, retraced and may break down to a lower low target, as previously expected. Not yet happening, but with a lower high, the bias is closer to the downside. The IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) also has a Sell signal and lower high. Waiting for a lower low confirmation with a break of support. The DJT is also similar. The Value Line failed to close the recent gap, suggesting downside bias. The TIPS clearly broke down through two support levels with a system Sell signal. So this one committed. All the above have MACD technically bearish bias. The TLT is oddly breaking down too. No comments about this at this point of time. Just unusual. The VIX is also unusually complacent, being <20. Technically seeing a possible spike some time in the next two weeks or so. I just added the Copper futures in the panel... according to Russell Napier, Copper futures is also one of the leading indicators we can use. For now, it is ranging and not committed to any trend. I hope we get some committed trend soon! Stay safe!
COMEX:HG1!
by Auguraltrader
Leading Indicators point to more the obviousLeading Indicator panel update: JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high. IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle. DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover pattern. Value Line - Similar outlook to DJ Trans, with bearish candlestick that failed to close the gap. TIPS - Totally bearish Marubozu that broke two supports, with MACD bearish. This market forerunner is not boding decisively bearish. TLT - Instead of the expected bullishness in a bearish market, we see TLT being dumped with a gap down marubozu. VIX - still low, coiling to spike perhaps? ES1! - The S&P500 futures had a Bearish Engulfing last week... indicative of a follow through downside in the weeks to come. So... the leading indicators overall are bearish, and getting more so, with the S&P500 just became indicative of some real retracement potential in motion.
NYSE:DMT
by Auguraltrader
TLT - 20Yr Bond ETFThe Monthly Chart continues to expand in Range. This is interesting as the Range Broadens the implications are quite Dire longer term. TLT was sold heavily prior to the ROC SPike in TNX. ZN was sold on Volume as well, an Instrument we have repeatedly discussed for its weakening structure. __________________________________________________________ Attempting to apply "Convention and Rationale" to an aging Trend is generally, an Idea whose validity should begin to come into question. FASB 56 alone is enough to bring the operations within the Shadows of the Bond Market under duress over time. It is clear the BIS is backstopping this operation - at what cost, we can only surmise. ___________________________________________________________ The Real Issue moving forward for the Bond Complex is one of simplicity. Rates will, in the Short Ter react to Policy and the perceived threat of Inflation. Shadow Operations will require time to unfold, but we believe this process has begun, it will not be brought into he light of Day any time soon, but will eventually, appear in the form of unexplained loss of confidence around the Globe. This will, of course, be devastating to the US Dollar. rendering it a 50 Level once 82 and then 77 are broken. _____________________________________________________________ The competition between China and the United States is well underway and is accelerating on many fronts. With the US Losing its advantages due to its inability to produce Value across former dominant Sectors of Global Trade - a 22nd Century pivot to Asia will continue to gain in both scope and scale, as well as velocity. Financial Isolationism within the approaching rebalancing of Global financial Arrangements will render the US to a weighted SDR status with less than favorable terms and conditions. This will have a devastating effect on the US Bond Market. The curve will be converted to a Perpetual Duration with Principals retired. A balance sheet liability which cannot be reduced without far greater and far more insidious distortions. It can never be eliminated. Never, it is not mathematically possible. Therefore it will be erased to bring balance. Think of it as the FDIC/SPIC coming to save $250K of your $20 Million. You lose, they win. They default in an extraordinary manner and provide token assurance that... one day... they swear to make you whole. It will never happen. ___________________________________________________________ This is axiomatic, pure, and simple. Regardless of the Gyrations... The Future is not "Uncertain" with respect to Bonds and how they will be all but eliminated.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
TNX - Monthly Historical Chart 40 Year ChannelThe Event which will provide relief to the Bond Complex is the Federal Reserve walking back its most recent Policy Statement. The Short End of the Curve witnessed an aggressive move of 6-9 Bips. This doesn't appear to be much on the surface of it. Unfortunately, it is. ______________________________________________________________________ The Yield Curve is not effectively communicating at either end and throughout the Curve. Far too much is made of prior Paradigms, with a real lack of understanding of the Glacial movements in the Bond Complex. 40 years is a long time - an unparalleled Bull Market in Binds coming off the Volcker Era after the Whip Inflation Now Era. Price in trend - it remains in Trebbt as the sheer largess of the Bond Market is 11X that of Equities. _______________________________________________________________________ The Risks remain to Rates rising. Hopefully - there is not a disorderly eruption as it would wreak havoc in ways we have not seen in a very long time.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
TLT - Daily / 3 Drives @ 149 and Fails Currently the 10 Year Note Yield @ 1.725 -0.008 -0.47%. What seemingly took a long time to begin to complete finally did. __________________________________________________________ There is a great deal in the Wind with respect to TLT presently. LArger Daily Gaps well below with Price Objectives extending to the 134 to 139 Levels - attendant Gap FIlls included. It will depend on ZN's breakdown and whether Yeidls simply Sky to our overhead Price Objectives 1.82 / 1.91 / 2.02 / 2.12 / 2.28 to 3.50 The Inflation Recalc will provide cover for a Retracement next week. Exceeding the 2021 Highs will be a stark warning for the Bond Holders who have been smoked for 1000 Bips in several Months. Chasing Highs while the Inflation persistence was building in all Core Data... generally unwise. We have maintained that Wave 4 would be an Everything Must Go Sale. SO far, so good, it's a THesis that time and again has proven to be correct and how long it extends will depend on a number of factors. We don't see a larger Equity Sell as supportive in a rising rate environment. The SHort end of the Curve appears to be supportive as well. _______________________________________________________________ McDonald's entered 2022 with 14.5% price increases across the Menu. Big Mac's in Bonds give way to Filet o' Fish.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
18
$TLT selling off to $138-141 before rallying higherTLT looks to be close to finding a bottom. I could see TLT finding a bottom in the $138-141 range then basing for a couple of weeks before rallying higher in early November. Key dates and levels on the chart. My macro thesis is that we're at the start of a larger pullback in markets and money will flow to treasuries as a safety net. Dates align on both the S&P bottom and TLT top around March... Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
3
Bitcoin, Treasuries, USD Retesting, All Telling Same StoryWhatever your opinion of these assets, they're all behaving in a fairly similar fashion, and they all have been behaving somewhat similarly over the last 3 years. No surprise, bitcoin and foreign currencies ten to outperform when financial conditions are loose and loosening. The vice versa is likely true as financial conditions tighten. Interestingly, if you pull up the charts on an individual basis, they all are retesting flags on a technical level. That doesn't mean they won't break back up and rally, but all three showing the same sign seems to add more weight behind likelihood that markets are in for a break upward in real rates and reduced liquidity / financial conditions.
TVC:US30Y
by GTStockmaster
TLT - DailyRemarkable how poorly this has performed. The 2 / 10 is causing some issues as there is a fear of contagion. After $12 Trillion in Corporate Junk Issuance to BUY Shares in 2021... Convention would lead one to assume UST's would be bid in greater size and yet the Short end is now catching the attention as 2Yr's went off without a hitch, No Fed, No Need. The ISsue is the Long end of the Curve is eating itself as it believes Inflation will be a persistent RISK. Housing... another issue Globally. ___________________________________________________________________ ZB isn't wrong, nor are the Buyers on Strike with 3 back to back failed auctions. TLT breaking the 50 with ZN Pointing South require a wait n' see position. The AO has dipped into Negative territory... while the price struggles to hold. Neagtive Divergeences abound.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
14
TLT - Ranging for nowLike everything Else the 007s are contending with an aggressive FED which is hell-bent on Full control. Long End 30/20 Cross, Short end muted to heavily Intervened, to put it mildly. Regardless - in Real Terms, Inflation continues to Eat and Feed on everything. ___________________________________________________________________ Even the DX is confused as to where to go and what to do there. Crypto continues to perform its SOAK FUNCTION. Sopping up excess liquidity in order to prevent errant behaviors elsewhere, by example AMC GME NOK and Penny's. ____________________________________________________________________ Keeping everyone and everything in a "Manic State" is working well for them. Not so much for Us...
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
Bonds Vs BTC and Equities What does everyone think about this? This is the conclusion forecast of all the previous ideas I've been working up to I don't see many people talking about the bigger picture of what is actually happening with Smart Money VS Retail TNX and BTC show the correlation TLT and the NDX show a similar but opposite correlation Bonds lead then Risk assets follow accordingly Wouldnt this make sense fundamentally? BTC Is a hedge against inflation so it copies the 10-year bond outpacing inflation Equities especially growth stocks are not a hedge to inflation so they have an opposite correlation to what interest rates are doing I think something big is going to happen and a lot of people will get shaken out. You can see the big fear narratives all stacking up before the new year! The whales have been trick or treating this holiday season and I think this X mas rally was a big trick for all the retail shrimp to get caught in the feasting season.
by AxeCapp
The Only Trade You Need to Make This Year. #SteeplongendThe long End Of Yield Curve will steepen. Inflation running hot and CB can't hike rates. Nobody will buy 20-30Y. Yields Run, TLT Plummets Double Top with Divergence. Both, fundamentals and Technicals there. This may be the only trade you need to make this year. Everyone will continue to believe inflation is under control until they don't. This is a trade we can actually see happening in front of us but, nobody has this priced in yet.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by CptSafety
19