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TLT

TLT - Beyond the Flamingo's Velvet RopesIn the Shadow of the Flamingo's Cheetah cordon, Casino Royale's Buy-In has begun. A Global Game of Chance? No. Baccarat, amongst the Participants, is simply a matter of Bank / Player. The Bank has a 2.5% edge. Wealthy Participants are enjoying the "Vesper" - an elixir of extraordinary mixology - Three measures of Gordon's, one of vodka, half a measure of Kina Lillet. Fruit and Quinine - Ms. Kina, can be toxic if copious quantities are ingested. _______________________________________ Insiders began pacing Out-Sized Put Bets on 007. We have our next setup for TLT and are engaging it with a large SELL into the weak retracement, which as indicated would fill those overhead Gaps. Never run to the Baccarat Table, walk, saunter, swagger, swill a Kina in rhythm to stride. Our Sells are neatly stacked within our several Racks, to be placed and pay the House Vig. _______________________________________ Looking beyond the Velvet ropes - We are sellers again of Tilt-Lose-Tilt. Perpetual Bonds with Negative Rates of Return... Playa Play played. No time to die. ps. spoiler - 007 Dies
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
4
Trade Idea (TLT): Shorting 20+ Year Paper Via Ratio BackspreadA setup to take advantage of a potential rising interest rate environment without knowing exactly when rate hikes will occur. Typically, this is set up by buying two of the back month 75 deltas and selling the front month 50 delta, such that you create a spread or diagonal with a net delta metric of around 100 (+100 if a bullish assumption spread or digaonal; -100 if bearish). Here, I would buy the June 75 delta 163's, and sell the December at-the-money 144, resulting in a net delta of -101.65. With a buy-in of 40.81 at the mid ($4081), it isn't particularly cheap, but certainly cheaper than shorting 100 delta of TLT shares outright and with multiple opportunities to reduce cost basis by rolling out the short put aspect if a move isn't immediately forthcoming. From a trade management standpoint I either (a) look to roll out the short put aspect to reduce cost basis further if the long put vertical aspect (i.e., one of the long put contracts + the short put aspect) of the setup doesn't converge on max; (b) look to take profit on the long put vertical aspect as soon as it converges on max and allow the remaining long put contract to either "ride" or cap it off by selling a short put against, creating a "new" long put diagonal. Variations: A long-dated, static long put vertical with lower net delta, specifically targeting 136: TLT June 17th 136/155 Long Put Vertical (Buying the 155, Selling the 136) Buying Power Effect: 10.78 ($1078) Break Even: 144.22 vs. 144.13 (Friday's Close) Delta: -33.62 Max Profit: 8.22 ($822)
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by NaughtyPines
1
TLT - Opprotunity Approaching once againTLT is aimless, wandering the desert which is Bonds. ZN has made new Lows for 2021 and continues to squat over the 130 Level. We believe it will fail as 10 Year Yields begin to complete their Consolidation and cross the 1.645 Level - indicating a move back to the 2021 Highs. We will be entering a SELL on Shares only. IV is not tempting enough at present as the Bond Bid has been absent - today's 8AM EST resolution will provide far more information for the larger trade here. BUlls are eyeing the large Gaps overhead, believing they are next. We're not convinced they are correct, the 172s are a which Implies Extreme Negative Returns. Perpetual Bonds is al 007s will Clip while watching the Capital Dissolve over time. To each their very own.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
4
TLT NEW BULL WAVE HAS STARTED 150 AREA CYCLE LOW IN TLT . I am now very bullish the TLT long side into nov 22 to dec 10 . My forecast for the 10 yr to see 1.62 . was seen I took profits and told traders to exit now .We now have a clear wave structure in TLT for a wave abc down for wave B low . this could be why I have the sp 500 ready to crash into a mini panic into its cycle low due oct 18th . BUT for now I would only be on the long side of TLT . I am now long a 50% at 143 and will add on a buy stop at 145.10 25% . We also saw the low hit right on the bottom of the Bollinger Bands best of trades WAVETIMER
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by wavetimer
1
TLT - ThunderBall as TNX trades thru 1.564139s and perhaps lower as this will begin to unravel the Equity markets as we approach the prior highs. The Fuse for the next leg down in the Equity Complex is being lit. And the reason for the RUSH to Wall Streets higher FIlls. Things are quickly coming apart in the REPO Markets as well. This sets up the potential for a large Rug Pull... 1.71 - 1.76 and it's going to get very Sporty. Banks are not lending, higher rates do them very little. Savers are being torqued by Inflation as the Wood Panelers and 007s can't seem to find a Bid for their Junk Paper. This will get nasty in the next 10 days. Very Nasty, they are using the lul between Expiry in VX to hoist price as far as they can only to let it go again. We see 15K on NQ with the Gap at 15.2K and the Ledge 15.4K. NQ has traded the -382 of the 15399 to 14367 decline. With tomorrow's Macro Job / Employment Report, the silliness can get out of hand quickly. IMHO, this will end rather badly as we roll back over and begin the 200SMA assualt.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
10
NQ - ES YM RTY ZN TLT / Final Commentary - 10/7/2021 Macro Observations As the Global Economy continues to weaken, DEBT is beginning to weigh heavily on the same. Inflations have many Vectors - Monetary, Fiscal, and Confidence. Throughout the history of the United States, the "Debt Ceiling" has always been a Glass Roof. At present, decades of abuse since the 1980s have come home to roost. The result of multiple stimulus measures aimed at combating the pandemic's economic impact... Congress will run a budgetary shortfall this year equivalent to 13.4% of GDP or approximately $3.1 Trillion. It is axiomatic, Fiscal and Monetary Policies have failed. The crisis will continue to worsen over the coming years, 2022 it will reach its zenith and fail in the most unimaginable ways. Confidence is nearing all-time lows. A Panic is in the air within the "Investing Complex" - it has just begun for Retail Investors. Buy the Dip, the FED has a Put under the Equities Markets is slowly, ever so slowly giving way to the recognition, All is not at all well. The "Everything Must Go Sale" is gaining momentum. And by "everything" - we, indeed, mean everything for reasons which have been discussed repeatedly here within this sliver of TV. The Boat will tip, list, and capsize into 2022, for now, a healthy correction is ahead as indicated. Higher rates are axiomatic, the Federal Reserve will begin to move further into the Shadows with its Operations. Dark Pools will continue to position into the Sell. It won't be The End, it will, however, "feel" like it. There will be one last high to put bring an end to the Longest Bull Market in History. That will be THE END. For now, Buckle up, the Sportiness is ON. ______________________________________________________________________________________ NQ ES YM RTY ZN TLT The Nasdaq chart above illustrates the larger Daily Price Objective. How it gets there will be quick and dirty, a rather nasty affair as reality sets in, takes hold and dumps the sordid mess on its collective head. Whether or not there is a consolidation zone prior to the large DUMP, will depend upon Distribution patterns and the Budget news cycle as well as the middle of the UST Curve, namely the 10 Year Note. It is not a no-mans land, but the very inflection point on the Yield Curve. It is overdue, for reasons we have covered repeatedly. Over and over and over to the point, they no longer bare repeating. Simply review the past several months of commentary to EDU yourself. We have grown wary of rehashing our Thesis. It has been proven correct and is now in Trade. It takes time to form a top, it is a process until it becomes an event. The Technical Conditions have been growing increasingly weak for several months. 3x and 4x Divergences have been building on Larger timeframes and are now beginning to assert themselves. It will remain choppy to Down and as October unfolds, the larger Sell will arrive. The ES & YM will follow the NQ, the YM will remain the Laggard as will RTY until rotational failure will occur. It is best to observe the Weekly and Monthly TF's there for levels. We believe the 200SMAs, as well, the 400SMAs come into play in October, no later than November. One fairly significant cleansing of Speculative Juices among the Retail Investing Herd. ZN & TLT, again, for reasons we have covered repeatedly are in a confirmed SELL. We believe the 10 Year Note Yield will see new highs, the ROCs we noted are gaining immense traction. An explosive move higher is unfolding. 139s will print on TLT, ZN could dive well into the 120s. Debt Obligations will demand higher rates at a time when the DEBT edifice itself is going to be difficult to string together. Pushing on a string comes to mind. Conventional Correlations are DOA, insisting they are functioning is simply ignoring reality. Yesterday is today shall be tomorrow... best of luck to you in this Dogma. Lagarde and Powell both speak this morning, furthering the All Digital agenda. We will be absent for a number of trading Sessions as we relocate our arrangements over the coming days. Hopefully, to return no later than October 7th. Be well - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
23