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TLT

Bullish Bonds: Technicals vs. NoiseContrarian bet against the onslaught of bond bears. RH Technicals vs. WallStreet - Clean, MACD Bullish Divergence - Descending Triangle, Completed E-wave signals new trend. - 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement hit; Also referred to as the Golden Retracement . It is, after all, based on the Golden Ratio. - And potentially a False Breakdown, likely to mirror the False Breakout of the B wave in the E wave. Implications for the S&P go without saying. Best, RH
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by RHTrading
Bond Update #bondsThis breakout trade out of the December range (rectangle)to the downside to the lows set back in March has been even better then expected but as we approach those lows it is decision time again. Because I have good trade location I am going to hold the short position even if we get an immediate term bounce. I am watching to see if we can hold below 169'00. If we can the downtrend is still intact. How price reacts here at 167'00 will be interesting to watch though because if rates are really going to rise this time, the down move could be strong if we can make it below 167'00. Despite the FED and the economy not fully being open, bond yields are certainty indicating inflation for now.
CBOT:ZB1!
by IngenuityTrading
2
Market Crash Inbound? TLT WILL DECIDE $TLT $SPY | Play of YearTLT (inverse gov bonds) looks like it's ready to make a move within the next few weeks, after forming a pretty nice wedge. This will ultimately be a very important indication of what direction the market will be heading in Q1 21 and beyond... (scroll for options play idea) Just looking at the fundamentals on TLT, we can predict a market-wide dump (nice correction) with the next 4 months, nailing it on the head will be the difficult part which will most likely involve some type of fundamentals like another rate cut for example (what happened back in Feb and March). TLT is an extremely slow mover, which makes a extremely profitable during higher volatility moves. This will predict the direction of almost the entire market. TLT would give an indication of a bullish market and economic bounceback if it falls off below $154.63 , but would be confirmed with the break below $148.9. TLT would indicate a potential market-wide correction if it were to break $159.7 as it should make a quick move toward $170 once broken. The economy might get sketchy If TLT were to break $172.15. Back in February, we entered TLT after the gap up and continuation past $148.90, leading us to a 19% move at highs from that level. Now we will watch $159.7 for a potential breakout which will ultimately result in a similar move as we saw in Feb. THE EASY LOOT PLAY: |BULLISH| : TLT $170 CALL 4/16/21 @ $140 AVG (I like) or TLT $170 CALL 3/19/21 @ $90 AVG (higher reward higher risk) |BEARISH| : Not gonna touch it, sit on hands and find other great growth Timing is key, don't jump the gun DCJ | Jack
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by DotcomJack
7
Bullish Flag On Gold - New Highs In 2021?Low interest rates and QE from central banks caused strong bullish trend across different assets. But what we see for the last few months is pullback on gold and US bonds, while stocks are printing new highs due to covid-19 vaccine that brings back optimism for move” back to normal life and economy” in 2021. However, stocks are very high and they may face a retracement next year, maybe even based on “buy the rumour sell the news impact”. In such case investors may look to hide in bonds or metals. From a technical point of view we see US Treasurys bullish on a weekly scale, and they are unfolding five waves up from 2018 low where 5th wave is still missing as shown on 10 year US notes chart. If you are familiar with Elliott Waves, then you know that impulses need to be completed with five waves so new highs can be in the cards in 2021. In fact, current price action since March on the 10 year is slow and sideways, so based on personality and characteristics we believe it’s corrective wave 4. If we are correct, then more upside on 10 year is also going to be supportive for gold that may breakout of a bullish flag. Some traders and investors may also look at TLT here around current trendline support. Happy holidays and all the best in 2021. Trade well! GH
CBOT:ZN1!
by ew-forecast
1
ROLLING (IRA): TLT JAN 15TH 165 COVERED CALLS TO FEB 19TH 163... for a 1.00/contract credit. Notes: A continuation of my TLT covered calls. (See Post Below). Rolling out at >50% max to the strike paying around 1% of the strike price, which is the 163 in February, currently valued at 1.66. I'm fine with being called away, since my last acquisition was around 110, and I think the buying power could be better utilized in something with higher implied volatility (30 day is currently 14.9% here). By the same token, that 1.66 for the 163 short call is 7.67 annualized or 4.9% as a function of stock price. That isn't hugely sexy, but when you add that to TLT's current yield of 1.56%, I could think of worse places to park my money for a little bit while I ramp up other positions in the new year.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
It's All About the BASE - DXY $94 by end of Jan 2021The US dollar as represented by DXY has reached critical support (more evident on quarterly chart), and will now being to squeeze upwards. Directional change in dxy usually happens around political catalysts and I believe the bottoming of DXY here lines up a little too perfectly around inauguration. We're targeting $94 by the end of Jan 2021. Further confirmation of this can be seen in TLT and BTC. TLT has also reached LT support and has been trading within a tight channel, which it should move out of in the next 2 weeks. BTC usually tops where DXY bottoms. And it has been on a historic run as of late. Every major index has topped, uvxy has found support at ~10.8ish and should squeeze out of it's descending triangle soon. Targeting $40 by January 8. Enjoy! (
TVC:DXYShort
by sapientosapien
(DXY) What Really Is Driving Gold (Yields)There is much speculation across the investor universe about what influences Gold prices and vice versa. Today I will be focusing on the false theory that Gold prices lead treasury yields and that by extension, Gold signals market crashes. The Financial Solar System Taking a look at the chart it is clear that sometimes Gold prices parallel and slightly lead treasury yields. However, if we overlay the Dollar index it is astronomically clear that the only times that Gold does this is when the Dollar's gravitational pull temporarily alters Gold's trajectory. Gold prices at the root are inversely corelated with Treasury yields. It is really that simple. The Treasury market is the Sun while Gold, the Dollar, and the Stock market are planets. As treasury yields ultimately dominate and inversely lead Gold prices, the Dollar acts as a secondary force. Yields are the only pre-signal for Market crashes and it looks to me like another leg down is imminent. However, it also looks like the dollar is setting up for a relief rally which means Gold would plummet along side stocks before the Sun sling shots it to new highs.
TVC:GOLD
by trade-God
1
S&P 500 Risk Off? Watch the Put-Call Ratio and US DollarHello traders and investors! As we all know the stock market has recovered very sharply and fast since March when we saw a strong drop following coronavirus lockdowns. The monetary policy has quickly changed and caused a rebound on financial assets after QE, stimulus packages, and lower rates. Stock indexes are higher, some even beyond March levels even though COVID is not anywhere near the end; in fact, we see more and more lockdowns and restrictions happening globally each day. It is clear evidence that QE is driving the markets and not the real situation of the economy. But we have to realize that the stock market does not represent the economy; stock prices are driven by supply and demand, and it looks like more money printing obviously means more buying power. I think that stock market is a good indicator for overall market sentiment, and currently we see more and more investors trying to jump on the train despite prices printing new all-time highs. On the put/call index ratio, we can see that investors are buying a lot of calls as they believe that prices will be higher in the future. When calls move to an extreme, it usually means the opposite as we know that the market moves from pessimism to optimism and vice-versa. So if we respect past shifts in trends on the S&P 500 due to the PUT/CALL ratio extremes then we shall also be aware of a reversal now. I think there can be a risk-off, perhaps in 2021. It can be only temporary turn or pullback before we go even higher, but I think that it will provide a much better opportunity to look for investments when PUT/CALL will be at the other end of the extreme. We know that when there is “risk-off” that cash is king, so normally the US Dollar will rise. Some may not agree because of money printing that drives down the value of currency. However, I believe there will be pullback even if the Dollar is going to crash, and this pullback may not be far away if we consider that DXY/SP500 ratio is seen in a fifth wave of a drop from March high. Based on Elliott Wave theory, the market is in final leg of current bearish development so next reaction is a counter-trend, normally in minimum three legs. And this goes perfectly with the PUT/CALL ratio view above. The reason why people move into cash during a stock market sell-off is because of fear; they feel much better and safer with “cash in hand” rather than invested in some stocks during volatile and uncertain times. However, some will look to hide in precious metals or bonds but this requires patience. I think Gold is very interesting from the fundamental perspective, but when looking at the price and upward potential I really love Silver. Silver has a support here at 21/19 where current pullback can come to an end. TLT is also one option but there have been times when even bonds and metals fell “during stock market shock” but then quickly stabilized. The TLT is looking quite interesting while it trades above the trendline support, but falling trendline shall be broken to confirm the resumption of an uptrend. That’s it for today. If you love the analysis or you are interested in market-sentiment cycles then you may want to look at our Elliott Wave charts!
TVC:SPX
by ew-forecast
14