We have Topped the Stock Market!Clear Reversal in the Bond market, Buying Volume along with an Almost Full Hammer indicating a very likely possibility of a top in the stock market.
The Buying Volume this week was high and as strong as the Buying Volume Just BEFORE the March 2020 Crash.
After such a long run-up , it is about time we have that MAJOR Correction.
Short the Market, Long the Bond Market
TLT
To Me Its Just That "One" Move...Its just the way Bitcoin moves gets me seeing the dollar. Really, It reminds me so much of the dollar. Oh speaking of which how'd y'all feel about that assertion of strength that the DXY had today? Hate it or love it DXY looks like the Nerd in the cafeteria that knows he won't be giving up his lunch money. It's happened one too many time and enough might really be enough now. LOL Let the Assets laugh all they'd like this Nerd knows he'll rule the world. LOL
What are your thoughts? Is it bad that people like to realize gains say "Cool! More Dollars now!"
-No advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 6 years in the world of "CRYPTO"
""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK!""
Bullish Bonds: Technicals vs. NoiseContrarian bet against the onslaught of bond bears.
RH Technicals vs. WallStreet
- Clean, MACD Bullish Divergence
- Descending Triangle, Completed E-wave signals new trend.
- 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement hit; Also referred to as the Golden Retracement . It is, after all, based on the Golden Ratio.
- And potentially a False Breakdown, likely to mirror the False Breakout of the B wave in the E wave.
Implications for the S&P go without saying.
Best,
RH
Bond Update #bondsThis breakout trade out of the December range (rectangle)to the downside to the lows set back in March has been even better then expected but as we approach those lows it is decision time again. Because I have good trade location I am going to hold the short position even if we get an immediate term bounce. I am watching to see if we can hold below 169'00. If we can the downtrend is still intact. How price reacts here at 167'00 will be interesting to watch though because if rates are really going to rise this time, the down move could be strong if we can make it below 167'00. Despite the FED and the economy not fully being open, bond yields are certainty indicating inflation for now.
Gold will continue to be under pressureAfter a 10-year yield breakout higher Gold has set a new lower high only to re-instate its bearish trend since August 2020. Gold has a perfect correlation with TLT, and this relationship rarely fades out. With the breakdown in TLT (150 level), Gold will probably establish a new lower low in the short-term.
Leading Indicators Part 2 - an early warningIn this second set of LEading indicators...
The TLT (Bonds ETF) see a sell off trend starting... this is actually bullish for the equities market
The TIPS appears to have possibly topped.
The VIX and VVIX are bullishly divergent. IMHO, due for a spike soon.
Overall... bullish until it hits the fan. It appears that we may be in for another surprise.
Just be cautious if you are bullish.
Market Crash Inbound? TLT WILL DECIDE $TLT $SPY | Play of YearTLT (inverse gov bonds) looks like it's ready to make a move within the next few weeks, after forming a pretty nice wedge. This will ultimately be a very important indication of what direction the market will be heading in Q1 21 and beyond...
(scroll for options play idea)
Just looking at the fundamentals on TLT, we can predict a market-wide dump (nice correction) with the next 4 months, nailing it on the head will be the difficult part which will most likely involve some type of fundamentals like another rate cut for example (what happened back in Feb and March). TLT is an extremely slow mover, which makes a extremely profitable during higher volatility moves.
This will predict the direction of almost the entire market. TLT would give an indication of a bullish market and economic bounceback if it falls off below $154.63 , but would be confirmed with the break below $148.9. TLT would indicate a potential market-wide correction if it were to break $159.7 as it should make a quick move toward $170 once broken. The economy might get sketchy If TLT were to break $172.15.
Back in February, we entered TLT after the gap up and continuation past $148.90, leading us to a 19% move at highs from that level. Now we will watch $159.7 for a potential breakout which will ultimately result in a similar move as we saw in Feb.
THE EASY LOOT PLAY:
|BULLISH| : TLT $170 CALL 4/16/21 @ $140 AVG (I like)
or
TLT $170 CALL 3/19/21 @ $90 AVG (higher reward higher risk)
|BEARISH| : Not gonna touch it, sit on hands and find other great growth
Timing is key, don't jump the gun
DCJ | Jack