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TLT

YIELD CURVE FLATTENINGhedgopia.com Hedgopia reports that the long 10 years and short 30 year position is starting to reverse. Short interest on a 30-year is decreasing, short interest on the 10-year is increasing. This could signal a reversal in the macro trend. - This a bet on a raise on short term interest rates and a decline in long term interest rates. Yield curve flattening. - A flattening yield curve may be a result of long-term interest rates falling more than short-term interest rates or short-term rates increasing more than long-term rates. - A flat yield curve is typically an indication that investors and traders are worried about the macroeconomic outlook. One reason the yield curve may flatten is market participants may be expecting inflation to decrease or the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate in the near term.
SP:SPXShort
by NicTheMajestic
TLT H8: THE BEST investment into US Election Day (SL/TP)(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -24/7 uptime so constant updates TLT H8: THE BEST investment into US Election Day (SL/TP)(NEW) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: TLT D1 market overview/outlook ::: revised/updated outlook ::: accumulation in progress right now ::: expecting more short term losses ::: going into US Election Day ::: HOWEVER buying LOW is THE BEST ::: INVESTMENT into US Election Day ::: 150/155 best reload zone BULLS ::: BULLS should get ready to BUY LOW ::: from range lows / premium level ::: we are setting up for 15%+ PUMP ::: it's a slow process into US election ::: currently stay out / wait for better price ::: then get ready to SHIFT to BULL MODE ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: BUY/HOLD setup for patient traders ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: N/A ::: N/A 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BEARS/downside ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS/15% GAINS
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by ProjectSyndicate
1
TBT - Next Big Mover?Without too much noise, interest rates appear to be creeping up. In comparing with other trading instruments I watch, it appears to have the biggest potential for a move. As the rising rates indicate an increase in inflation, I've also had my eyes on a few commodities. Inflation has too long been downplayed but we all know the reality of inflation because we are exposed to the reality, not the engineered inflation figures that show there is none. Soybeans have looked interesting (SOYB). Also watching DBA for a broader commodity play. Oil as well. Started taking positions in some like XOM. Could be testing a long term low. Politically, the oil industry appears toxic but such fears often prove to be great buying opportunities. I'm taking some shots here across the inflation spectrum.
AMEX:TBTLong
by Glewis54
1
TLT D1: THE BEST investment into US Election Day (SL/TP(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -24/7 uptime so constant updates TLT D1: THE BEST investment into US Election Day (SL/TP(NEW) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. Tagged as SHORT because short-term I expect more losses before reversal (BULLS) at 150/155. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: TLT D1 market overview/outlook ::: revised/updated outlook ::: accumulation in progress right now ::: expecting more short term losses ::: going into US Election Day ::: HOWEVER buying LOW is THE BEST ::: INVESTMENT into US Election Day ::: 150/155 best reload zone BULLS ::: BULLS should get ready to BUY LOW ::: from range lows / premium level ::: we are setting up for 15%+ PUMP ::: it's a slow process into US election ::: currently stay out / wait for better price ::: then get ready to SHIFT to BULL MODE ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: BUY/HOLD setup for patient traders ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: N/A ::: N/A 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9/Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BEARS/downside ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS/15% GAINS
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by ProjectSyndicate
2
Regional Banks On the Move!Regional banks have been an absolute dog as of late. They lag almost everything, other than energy. This sector has shown some strength since the “Tech Wreck”. So why do we focus on this group? Well it is part of a larger story…. interest rates. Let’s hop on the chart. So here we have the charts of KRE. We have seen a downward sloping trendline that was intact for months break. Now we are going to test an area of overhead supply. If we break through at that area, that is bullish for stocks. If we break down at that level, we would be looking for a higher low to confirm the trend reversal. We are also seeing the RSI break through some overhead resistance which is bullish. We want to see participation from financials, even the small ones! Now this is also part of a larger story of interest rates. If KRE is rising, we can assume rates will rise as well. At least in the short term during reversals, these two trend together. We are seeing utilities break out too, which is another leading indicator of rates increasing. Happy Trading!
AMEX:KRELong
by derzzycharts
1
Small Cap Outperformance is HealthyWhen looking at equities, there are always clues in the intermarket world. Today we will look at small caps breaking out. Let’s hop into the chart! The first thing I notice here is the overhead supply that we have been struggling to break through. It now looks as though we have broken through. Now we just have to see if it is a fake out or a breakout. If we can turn this resistance into support over the next weeks, this will likely push the IWM to macro highs. The same goes on the RSI. If we can break this level of 60, we can see higher prices. If we are seeing small caps break out, that is a healthy sign of bull market rotation. Bull markets are hard to spot at the start, but this is something that we look for. By the way, small caps breaking out is good for equities and crypto, bad for bonds and the dollar. At least in the medium term of 6-12 months. Happy Trading!
AMEX:IWMLong
by derzzycharts
OPENING (IRA): TLT NOVEMBER 20TH 160/170/172 JADE LIZARD... for a 2.64/contract credit. Notes: A bet that TLT doesn't move much with no upside risk (the credit received exceeds the max risk of the two-wide short call vertical) and a downside break even of 157.36 (the short put strike minus the credit received). Additionally, even if it blows through the long call strike at 172, the credit received exceeds the max risk of the call side by .64, so I could still make money if that happens. Will look to take profit at 50% max.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
2
TRADE IDEA: TLT SHORT CALL DIAGONALWith (a) the Federal Reserve telegraphing "lower for longer," but (b) not much lower, given the practical limitations of cutting rates from here; (c) overhead resistance at ~172.50; and (d) the fact that the Fed interest rates will hike rates (modestly or otherwise) "at some point" going forward, I'm looking to short the 20 year + maturity treasury exchange-traded-fund TLT, preferably on strength back toward the 172.50 level. While I can naturally take a short position via covered put, short via short call vertical, long put vertical, or long put diagonal,* my preference is for a setup that will give me some flexibility to roll short options out for additional time and credit if my timing is off and/or I want to re-up with a short option out in time after a given leg is pulled off at or near worthless. Consequently, I'm opting for a short call diagonal here with a slight twist: laddering out the short calls and buying fairly cheap longs equal to the number of contracts in my ladder. Here, the back month longs are going for .30 a pop, so I'm giving up some credit to define risk and/or make it "street legal" in a cash secured environment, where most brokers won't allow you to sell naked shorts, and for cheaper than I could potentially do a covered put. That being said, this setup isn't "cheap": buying power effect: 96.10; max profit on fill: 2.97, which is 3.09% ROC, assuming everything expires worthless, and I don't re-up any short legs. Naturally, the ROC%-age will be better if everything expires worthless, and I can re-up with the short call a couple of additional times. The November short call's paying 1.06; the December, 1.34; and the January, 1.47, so it's conceivable I could milk another 2.00 in credit out of the thing for around 5.00 total over the life of the setup, assuming I don't have to roll broken calls out in time. Alternatives: (a) Buy the January 21st '22 160P (b) Sell the January 21st '22 160C ... for a 3.25 credit at the mid price. This creates a static -100 delta short position. (c) Sell the November 20th 159P ... for a 2.06 credit. Manage like a covered put, but without being in the stock. This setup should be way cheaper to get into, at least on margin; it's likely a prohibited setup in a cash secured environment for most brokers. * -- The long put diagonal is generally my go-to when I want to take a short position, but want time for it to work out or to reduce cost basis over time. Unfortunately, long-dated back month high delta long puts were unsatisfactorily illiquid to do this, although maybe I'll have better luck pricing things out during live market hours.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by NaughtyPines
5