TLT Complex (W), (X) , (Y) pattern On the Daily time frame, TLT in a complex (W), (X), (Y) measured move targeting the 175-180 level. Looking to close out all longs on TLT into 175-177 range.
TLT
OPENING: TLT OCTOBER 16TH 156/169 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 2.34/contract credit.
Notes: A bet that this doesn't move a ton in the next 45 days. Break evens at 153.66/171.34; delta/theta .31/5.80.
Shiller Version 2 for Wk Open 9/14 In 1998, Robert Shiller--the Yale economist and Nobel Prize winner-- formalized that idea in a paper, "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook" and a book, "Irrational Exuberance." The latter made Shiller something of an economic prophet. In his book, which came out shortly before the dotcom crash, he warned that stocks were overvalued.
What is the CAPE ratio? It describes the price-earnings ratio over 10 years, rather than on a particular date. Called the Shiller P/E, it is calculated by dividing the price of a stock by its average earnings over the past 10 years, adjusted for inflation . It can also be used on an index such as the S&P 500 .
Qtrly (3m) Real Yield vs. Gold (Divergence vs Convergence)Qtrly (3m) Real Yield vs. Gold (Divergence vs Convergence)
I wonder WHAT is coming next? 1) RSI elevated
2) Volume diminishing
3) Bonds picking up momentum
4) SPY close to all time high
On the fundamentals:
1) Unemployment at record high
2) Stimulus ending with no replacement in sight
...
The question is not WHAT but WHEN?
I vote for soon, VERY soon!
Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
Copper/Gold RatioWe might start to see longer term US bond weakness as the copper/gold ratio rebounds off the lower extreme of it's descending channel. In this example I'm using TLT, an ETF. These two have an inverse relationship and also correlate with the US dollar. Long term US bonds and the USD tend to have a positive correlation giving both a bearish outlook. This is more for analysis than trading and can provide another piece to the USD bear picture. Over the coming months or year we may see USD continue it's bearish trajectory, keeping it weak against it's major counterparts. My relative analysis says USD is currently weak and stronger currencies to pair against are AUD, CAD and NZD.
Bond Market Warned of Corrections 9/6/2020TLT at the daily view.
This is a project that my trading team and I are conducting. This is 8 of 9 charts (available on Trading View) that searches for clues for an imminent correction by using both June and September 2020 cases. It's a comprehensive overview that connects the charts volatility , trends, divergences, credit, and currency strength.
The bond markets warned of a correction in the stock market a few days before June and September's correction. Bonds ripped to the upside a few days prior to the ES, NQ, and RTY correcting. The previous top and fall back in August 7th was due to the inflation scare by the PPE report.
As we saw before, they can't both be right. Take your pick!SPY and TLT have been trending up since june (red line), for close to 3 months. Which one is right? My money is on the smart money like in March. Also note that the dollar shows signs of bottoming.
Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
Bonds are on the move again?! Follow the smart money.
Nice inverted head and shoulder!
What will it mean for stocks you think?
Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
Bonds slipping away (bearish indicator crossover)The cross is using the 20 and 50 exponential moving average .
Every time the shorter exponential moving average crosses the longer one, this indicates a bearish signal.
You can see the times this has worked in the past, in the same chart.
'A Normal Distribution': August 23 /ZB UpdateThe convergence of multiple references. Though it depends on timeframe and approach, this is a fantastic way to get chopped up.
OPENING: TLT SEPTEMBER 18TH 155/167/168/180 IRON FLY... for a 5.96 credit.
Notes: A risk one to make one stays-within-the-expected move setup betting that treasuries don't move a ton in the next 59 days or so. Since it's "almost a straddle," will look to take profit at 25% max.
TLT Bullish wave (Y) still in Play TLT is setting up for one more push higher into wave (Y) upside reagent of 190-195. So far this triangulation suggesting the complex wave higher to continue this bullish outlook on Bonds.
TLT BUY OR LONG , TARGET UP TO $190The TLT triangle pattern is completed, the target is confirmed at $ 190 .
Buy TLT : $165
Target TLT : $190 +-2
Stop loss : $160
Wish you good deals!
Inverted Head and Shoulder? Load up on USDThe dollar has been hit very hard lately with all this money printing from the Fed but some argument support the theory that it will soar one last time before the true descent.
The stock market (SPY) is climbing its wall of worries. It will break new highs if not done already by the time you read this. But then when it corrects, bonds are going to soar and cash will be king for a short while.
First Target $27 but could soar well above that. I am loading on UUP September 18th calls. They are are cheap and it offers sufficient time for the plan to work itself out!
Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
All Time HIGH! Things you can do instead of shorting SPYThis craze could go on for a little while. who knows when the reality will catch up with the stock market, In the meantime, you can position yourself for a couple of potential explosive moves.
- Long bonds, they are declining today, could be a good entry price soon? No need for an idea here, just look at the March TLT chart.
- Long USD (see related story)
- Long Gold before the big drop (see related story, to be followed by bullish trend. This one has worked out faster than I thought! I am up 33% on a position I took today)
Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
"All Time High's"This was the first chart that signaled a recession in April of 2020 when the curve first inverted last year in May. This was pure luck, by simply drawing a fractal of previous yield curve inversions from past recessions from May, which was around 360 days from the TA that suggested the market would recess in April of 2020. Obviously covid is a black-swan--unpredictable and un-speculative--however the bond markets continue to get this all correct, 6-12 months in advance.
Keep your tabs on the curve.
4 VS 1 / DJI, SPX, IXIC y RUT Versus TLT (BONDS 20 YRS)
Cuando las acciones suben, los bonos deberían bajar. Es simple porque los bonos son como una inversión poco rentable pero segura en tiempos difíciles. Pero cuando comparamos 4 índices con un ETF para bonos a largo plazo, me viene a la mente que en el futuro, la mayoría de los inversores están apostando al mercado a colapsar, (no ahora). Podemos ver la línea de convergencia (por ahora) entre ETF "TLT" (BONOS 20 AÑOS) y 4 índices importantes de USA.
Obviamente, si vemos la imagen macro de "US 10 Y", descartamos cualquier riesgo en el corto plazo.
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As we know about opposite, when stocks go higher, Bonds should Go Down. It is simple because Bonds are like a low profitable but safe investment in hard times. But when we compare 4 indexes against an ETF for Long period bonds, it comes to my mind that in a future mostly investors are betting market to crash, (not now). We can see the convergence line (for now) between ETF "TLT" (20 YEARS BONDS) and 4 important indexes of USA.
Obviously, if we see the macro Picture of "US 10 Y" we are very solid at this time and we discard any risk.
S&P may sink again sparkingA few things.
1. Over the last 2 years every time S&P has made a higher high and reached RSI down trend it has fallen hard.
2. Bonds are currently signaling stress and deflation despite trillions of QE. For reference see; US2's/10's , TLT.
3. Many eyes are on the DXY breakdown however that is mostly skewed toward EUR, Yen, GBP. The broad trade weighed USD is still very bullish.
4. Net USD positioning is net short. If there is a wobble in stocks safe haven demand for dollar will cause a massive short squeeze in USD.
5. Golds correlation with negative yielding debt confirming much higher bond prices (lower yields).
