TLT
XLF Ascending Triangle Level of Resistance $31Purely a speculation on my behalf that XLF will reject again at this $31 level like it has done several times thus far. Alternate plays would be $TLT to the upside. Bitcoin USD showing risk off action that leads me to believe the selloff isn't over and the reversal from the big upside at the open this morning for the QQQ, etc. also leads me to believe that we're not done with the selling. (I'm wrong more often than I'm right on the timing of things so may not happen immediately). But I've been using bitcoin as my compass here lately and it's been an accurate direction indicator for the broader market. Goodluck.
These are my opinions only, and not trading advice.
TLT is challenging Oct'19 high at 146TLT resumed the year-long rally, after a four month long consolidation, extending toward 146, Oct'19 high. Above the latter, TLT should retest the 149 peak in Aug'19. reaching the 150 area. However, momentum indicator is in the overbought territory. The ETF could consolidate under the current resistance before attempting higher.
Happy Trading!
TLT - Potential Long SetupQuick setup that i am watching (but not going to take due to portfolio skew is already net short)
Ticker: TLT
Position:
- March 20th 2020 Expiry
- $137 Strike Call
- Delta = 0.70
- Cost = $4.18/ contract (mid offer)
Profit Target/ Exit:
- Initial target = $144
- Exit = close below the daily 200 SMA
Short $SPY $SPX $SPX500 to FEB 5: 4 Possible TargetsWe saw massive block trades today in Daily Edge Live at the upper red dark pool level. We had these blocks on Friday as well. Bearish.
See attached TV idea below for additional reasons.
Jan 21
📈 $SPY
📊 2,873,655 😱 ⚫️ #DarkPool
💵 332.14
Jan 14
📈 $TLT
📊 6,683,190 😱
💵 138.82
Inflation Expectations are too high vs DXY Inf Expectations are too high vs DXY
Oil is already rolling over catching down to DXY
Inf Expectations should roll over soon unless DXY collapses soon => Long TLT
SLV - Progress ReportSLV has completed a five wave up move. As my overall price objective for the main move is at least 19.58, it's my assumption that this was just a larger wave 1. A wave 2 may have already completed with a .382% retracement. There do appear to be 3 waves signifying a corrective wave. Or a larger A-B-C correction might take price down to the 50% fib level of 16.33.
I had previously bought Jan 2020 15-17 call spreads and on the rally, sold off the 15 calls, leaving me short the 17s. One more week is left until January expiration. These short calls closed at 0.13 indicating that the market expects SLV to rise to 17.13 next week.
Strong relationships have been noted with stocks rallying and silver and bonds falling, and vice versa. Could be that stocks have completed a major five wave move up and may begin a corrective wave. IF the correlations continue to hold, one can expect strength in precious metals and bonds.
$TLT Target Remains 157-158I'm not convinced that $TLT has given up the ghost. Looking at weekly close only TLT remains in rising channel from June '18. Support still holding.
I still think this goes to 157-158. Bull case fails below 134 imo. (FYI - Using secondary highs/lows for Fib extension)
Thoughts?
SHY-1 to 3 year Treasury ETF-Trendline breakdown Forming H&S TopTreasury yields have been rising over the past two months, with 2-10 treasury yield spread reaching 29 bps on 12/20/2019, highest level since June 2019.
The 1 to 3 year Treasury ETF - SHY broke below the June-November 2019 trendline last week, forming a head-and-shoulder top. Based on the project, the treasury bond ETF prices could target 83.95 area, retracing 50% of the 82.85 (November 2018 low) and 85.12 (August 2019 peak) swing in the next few months.
Happy Trading!
SHY-1 to 3 year Treasury ETF forming H&S top Treasury yields have been rising over the past two months, with 2-10 treasury yield spread reaching 29 bps on 12/20/2019, highest level since June 2019.
The 1 to 3 year Treasury ETF - SHY broke below the June-November 2019 trendline last week, forming a head-and-shoulder top. Based on the project, the treasury bond ETF prices could target 83.95 area, retracing 50% of the 82.85 (November 2018 low) and 85.12 (August 2019 peak) swing in the next few months.
Happy Trading!
S&P Next Week Expected Move ($27.5)Melting up. Next week shaping up to be a fairly boring neutral holiday week.
Goodluck Next Week
- RH
Recent Charts Worth Watching:
Unemployment Rate:
Bitcoin:
EM relative strength:
Value > Growth:
SKEW:
Bonds:
REPO:
VIX + VVIX:
VIX vs. VIX3M:
Industrial Production:
www.tradingview.com
Homebuilders:
Regional Banks:
China:
Emerging Markets:
EXCELLENT Risk to Reward TLT TradeAs described within the chart, there is an excellent opportunity here with going long TLT (20 year bond etf)... Oil took a small turn down today (still expecting sub $50) and could be seen as an indicator of further downwards price action for risk on assets... Equities continue to grind higher with little news propelling it forward... Gold is also looking towards completing a 5th wave higher with TLT... Stop loss is indicated in red and target is indicated in green...
Thanks for checking out my idea!
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