TLT | SPY Combo Chart - Bonds Look Ripe, Nice looking TriangleAlways amazes me how clean the charts look on some asset classes.
TLT
SPX500 future for coming weeks Long story short. New highs incoming.
I went long today before VIX loses its mind from the good ole "EVERYTHINGS GANA CRASH" people and premiums on calls/puts go wild.
---Indicators:
RSI is trending up. not over bought yet.
Gold sold off hard today. Still down trending off a massive weekly resistance
TLT had money go into it and its rise got smacked back down to almost even with its weekly open
emerging markets had a great week - always good
vix is vix - My assumption is we see volatility go crazy as we swing around the monthly resistance. Then it will die down until election time.
$TLT Testing Rising Support 4 timesThis trend line in $TLT has held 4 times since late-'18, the last time crossing at horizontal support. RSI remains positive with a breakout & retest. This is one possible wave count, but rising support is key here.
TLT weakness & bond weakness, TLT down to $132TLT is a 20+ year bond ETF that made strong highs throughout the rate-cutting cycle and rightfully so. The inversion of bonds vs the equity market has caused bond yields to drop and because of that since the price of bonds is directly inversely correlated to their yields, prices in TLT and other bonds have been increasing. The low rates have come to a halt as the rate-cutting cycle has stopped, or so we think it has. TLT has since then entered a downtrend in a channel and looks to be continuing in that respect. Bond yields are so low, that the convergence with the SPX is imminent, we've seen a slow increase in yields which will further push the price of TLT down. Another factor is that the equity market is continuously showing strength and looks to be on the rise for the next few months based on FED policy to pump more money into the economy. The volume on TLTto the upside has decreased as well and every swing lower is accompanied by strong volume.
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only, this does not constitute investment advice. TRADEPRO Academy is not liable for any market activity based on this idea.
US 10 yr treasury rate ROC signal says major rate spike comingSell bonds signal is very extended similar to Operation Twist era. I guess we are waiting for a catalyst to start the spike higher. Bonds are a long term sell here
Bond H&S updateupdating the previous chart to look at how this is behaving. Keeps retesting neckline, yet it keeps getting rejected. If broken, this will rally a bit, but I still expect this to head south significantly.
Treasuries are about to see a great rally hereThe squeeze in Treasuries is coming soon. Right now, it's just getting started and testing the break. The narrative of deflation has picked up steam strongly in the past 2 months with oil now clobbered, Powell going dovish (today), stocks down, and many many other reasons.
TLT bearish cross indicatorThe cross is using the 20 and 50 exponential moving average.
$136.5 --- short term support
If we brake down, the next support is close to the 200SMA ($130).
The rate cut tomorrow with Powell's speech will most likely move this indicator.
TLT - Important Support LevelTLT has fallen back down near support. This area is also an intersection of the triangle support line & the horizontal level, formerly resistance but now acting as support.
TLT LongTLT has pulled back to a very key trend line with additonal supports coming in below. On the hourly chart, we have positive divergence on TLT meaning we should see upside soon in the short term. Given the postures of the markets and how treasuries act as a flight to safety asset, it is reasonable to assume they will go up in price as stocks fall.
For this trade, I advise picking up TMF (x3 leverage) with a stop anywhere from 28.00 to 26.60. I also recommend scaling into the position with 2 or 3 batches comprising your total allocation that you are willing to invest.
4H)TNX DOWN WITH BULLISH BAT PATTERN!Short $TLT, my last 15min setup was full of crap but this gotta be working.
Long live equity!
TLT - Staying sideways but should resolve higher thenWe are in a consolidation, currently in possible wave B of (4) and should soon see a push lower for wave C to around 133 before going back up again one more time for wave (5) before we see any deep retracement.
Notice that waves 4 are tricky as they can take any form of corrective pattern, zigzag, triangle or flat.
One more option is that wave 4 is in at 136 and we continue higher but for that I'd first like a move above 148.
Copper / Gold ratio - 25 Sep update - No signalCopper / gold ratio is in line with 10 year Treasury yields at the moment. So no actionable signal right now
Recover ahead for TLT if SPY dropsTLT been on a tear to the downside with how bullish SPY has been. I like this one to the upside if SPY settles and drops back to EMAs. TLT also about to touch the 89d EMA which has always been a great buy area.
TLT Top of ChannelComing off of the highs that tested the long-term channel. Will be watching for a test of this top in November-December. A failure to break out might lead to a trip to the bottom of the channel.
