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TLT

Rate of Change in Eurodollars Signalled 10-Year Yield RolloverSubscribers were able to front run the rollover in U.S. yields as the rate of change in the eurodollar complex signaled a higher probability move. This as knock-on effects to yield proxies like USDJPY, TLT, XLU, XLRE etc. This exerpt is taken from "The Powell Put Pause" by The Macro Strategist: "Since January 14, the SPX is up 3.84 percent higher; but due to TACVOL's dynamic design, the range has been expanding since given as it takes in data. TACVOL score is bullish, and the range top is currently 2,730. The frustrating part is it conflicts the macro which should be supporting higher risk assets. Risk management is key. The move in policy expectations were hinted in Monday's "Charts to Ponder," which subscribers receive at the beginning of the week. The EDZ 2019 (eurodollar) has tightened after a massive pivot in November, which caused yields to collapse. However, the 7- and 20-day rate of change is beginning to drift higher. The 7-day ROC is above to flip from negative to positive and could see an inflow into eurodollars. This would be net-negative for the U.S. dollar; 10-year yield would roll over." Current near-term TACVOL range for SPX: 271.81/246.52; 1.42 score (bullish)
TVC:US10Y
by TheMacroStrategist
Next Week's Expected Move ($47) + Gravity Points + Economic DataNext week will be perhaps the most important week of the year. Given the number and size of companies reporting, I can't emphasize enough to keep your seatbelts on. Thursday is the biggest earnings day. Important Economic Events that happened last week: 1. The Economic Forum in Davos was downright pessimistic. Maybe a little bit overdone, but still these are CEO's, hedge fund managers, ect. all gathering in one lump sum all coming out with one idea, and that was that 2019 has got a lot of pessimism to it. 2. The week began with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and for those of you who don't know the IMF came out and downgraded 2019 Global Growth. This is the 2nd time they've came out and downgraded global growth. 3. The largest semiconductor company - INTC - came out with bad Earnings. Semiconductor's are a leading indicator of the Technology sector. And it shouldn't be anything new when I say that the Technology sector leads the broader stock market. It's really not just Intel. I can't really remember any other time in my career where so many CEO's are displaying so much uncertainty in their projections moving forward. 4. China is pumping serious liquidity into their system. They're out there with a firehose just spraying massive massive liquidity all over the place like there's no tomorrow. As a trader, this makes me nervous. When China is spraying liquidity like that, that means they're seeing major major headwinds. Take it for what you will, this is all just my interpretation. All I know is that when you start hearing a week or two of discussions on the mainstream news about the market heading for new all time highs, it's probably time to put your seatbelt back on. Goodluck out there next week gentlemen, RH Last Week's Post: Beautiful example of why I use this on a week-to-week basis.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RHTrading
2
Business Cycle points to more downside in Steel and Rates Business cycle has turned down again as depicted by steel prices and long term treasury yields. Last time, it was Chinese money printing that kick started the cycle again. This time Chinese are still slow to inject meaningful liquidity to the system. Once they get going, it takes 9-12 months for the economy to feel the real impetus. Hence, business cycle is likely to put pressure on rates and risk assets at least until the end of 2019. LONG TLT and SHORT Steel Companies
HShort
by quixilver
Blowoff Top in TLTDespite continuing equity market weakness today, TLT had a reversal on it's daily candle (not shown). Looking at the resistance line shows that it was violated, but only briefly before racing back below, indicating a reversal of direction. Should easily come back down to around $119 and potentially $116 as a more aggressive target. Could even indicate a reprieve from equity market weakness for a short period. If you don't want to go short or buy puts, you can also buy TBF the short 20+ treasury ETF.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by The_Pain_Trade
1