bond buying?volume increasing in 20yr treasuries. broke the downtrend, looking for higher high $IEF $SPY
TLT
TLT the market has lost confidence on the FED ?$TLT let's see if TLT can hold this breakout from the decending triangle by the time January close.
TLT Possible Reverse Head and Shoulders - long termTLT may find resistance at the 123 level and trade in the 116-123 range for several months, completing a reverse right shoulder. A push above the 123 level could see the top of a downward channel at 126.
Blowoff Top in TLTDespite continuing equity market weakness today, TLT had a reversal on it's daily candle (not shown). Looking at the resistance line shows that it was violated, but only briefly before racing back below, indicating a reversal of direction. Should easily come back down to around $119 and potentially $116 as a more aggressive target. Could even indicate a reprieve from equity market weakness for a short period. If you don't want to go short or buy puts, you can also buy TBF the short 20+ treasury ETF.
TLT - broke outIf past cases work again, a 6 months to 12 months 15% to 30% rally can be expected. Quite likely bottom is forming, and thus good time to scale in. What can go wrong? price dips below 40 week moving average and back in to the downward wedge, that would be the signal to bail.
German Real Estate looks attractive despite econ slowdownGerman Real Estate has been highly correlated with XLU and bonds while benefiting from flow of liquidity into equities. In previous slowdowns it has performed quite well. At least it has behaved quite predictably where buying the dips around KC and RSI o/s levels proved profitable.
Next Week Trade Plan: $82 Expected Move + Gravity Points + ExtraFor what it's worth, I don't have any Gravity Points identified under the "Gravity Point Very Hard"
Chart Dump this week. See what I see.
Last Week's Post
Other Relevant Charts:
(One Last Rally)
(Interesting Development)
(Kings Crown)
(Extremely Useful)
(Combo Equal-Weight Indice Chart)
(Extremely Useful)
(Should've made it public)
(Semi-Useful)
(Just for fun)
Sector & Indice Trendline Watch:
I use a fan of different trendlines from different anchor points (candle wick, candle body, Day prior, Day after, ect.) and connected them in a similar way to 2015/2016 Lows to capture a more complete picture of the trendline. That way I'm not second guessing if the trend is broken or not because I have all of the possibly variations already displayed. See Below:
Indice:
(Broke?)
(Very Weak)
(Hanging on)
Sector:
(Strong)
(Very Weak)
(Struggling)
(Broke)
(Still Well Above)
Trying to Figure Out Bond Market MovementThe bond market looks like it is reaching it's peak overbought condition in the short term. This might bring some stability to the stock market. I am closely watching the 50 DMA line which is flat and might reverse it's trend to start moving higher. I would sell TLT in the short term and buy on dips. I will watch for a break in the downtrend line I highlighted which will indicate a bullish move to the upside.
The Curve Is Falling, The Curve Is Falling $TLT God bless the legacy financial media because their uselessness is a blessing.
Headline to headline is no way to live through live whether you trade oil or bitcoin. The click du jour is how the 2s/5s yield curve is now inverting, and the 10s/2s are at a mere 11 bps.
I have been one of the largest flat curve-ers out there. Why? Because my process shows why the decelerating in rate in change in both growth and inflation will sink the back-end and the front steepening eases.
On Sept. 6, I wrote in "Cognitive Dissonance: What the Yield Curve Is Saying:"
"A lot of headlines have fluttered across the wires on the 10s/2s yield curve on a continuous path to inversion. Neckties on legacy media continue to say a flat or inverted curve doesn't mean much.
I reckon, given the directional trajectory of both the curve and MVR inflation matrix that the curve is signaling market's expectations on inflation.
Generally, this would make sense given that the steepening from a curve inversion is triggered by the fed's policy stance on interest rates during the end of the cycle."
The concerns about increasing U.S. supply in paper is valid, but the concerns of too much debt issuance over demand becomes "where do I put my money" concerns.
That's likely treasuries, increasingly so as investment and junk credit continue to breakdown.
TLT Short setting upTLT's longterm trend is down (see higher TF's).
The daily TF presents a pullback.
If price can break through the tiny (orange) shelf, we have a nice trade on the plate, at least down to the Centerline (my personal TGT1).
P!
10y yield wants to break down from 3 year rising wedgeNothing huge here, just watching for this trend to break as many others have recently. Major trend breaks = regime change. If this falls out of the pattern here, I expect the yield curve to invert not all that long afterward.
TLT: Bottom's in...Just documenting my call here. I think it may rise 8-10% from here. A significant drop in bond yields awaits.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Post 2016 rising wedge in 10y yields (log scale)Just another anecdote of how this trades much better using a log scale than a non-log scale. This will likely break out to the downside within the next few months. See my longer term chart for reference.
The bond bear is not here yet.... use a log scaleThere have been a lot of talks of a bond bear market over the past year. That would be a big problem, but it's not here yet. The biggest problem is that too many chartists are using and circulating charts of trend resistance breaking in bonds that do not use log scales. I get that it seems intuitively dumb for a yield chart to use a log scale, but that's how this has traded for the better part of the last 20 years. Trade what is, not what you think should be.
Turns out we haven't yet hit the top channel here, so we're not in a bond bear. It also turns out that touching the top channel occurred every time the fed quit hiking rates over the past 30 years, which preceded the last 3 recessions / bear markets by 1-2 months at least.
Short term, we're in a rising wedge that the bond market has obeyed quite well. If we rise directly to the top of the channel, that would imply a May 2019 break of this uptrend and a recession / bear market starting around mid 2019 into 2020. Who knows how this actually plays out, but I know we haven't hit a true bond bear yet, and even when we do, it'll probably be far less exciting than people want to believe.
SPY 30 min Chart the battle will be won or lost here The infamous inverted h and s will be won or lost late this week or early next...
SPY Weekly 30 Years overall Look #BigPicture #MeasuredmoveThis is a carefully crafted study! I have demonstrated the angles that we will likely see in the future based on what we have seen in the past. Details in the chart... Hope to get 1K views on this
Long TBT (Short Treasuries and Long Rates)Daily TBT shows bull flag and seller exhaustion. Weekly bullish cloud ahead.
All major EMAs supporting the move higher, which means rates going to explode much higher. Bullish dollar $DXY and bearish gold $XAUUSD and miners $GDXJ $GDX
