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TLT

Next Week Trade Plan: $82 Expected Move + Gravity Points + ExtraFor what it's worth, I don't have any Gravity Points identified under the "Gravity Point Very Hard" Chart Dump this week. See what I see. Last Week's Post Other Relevant Charts: (One Last Rally) (Interesting Development) (Kings Crown) (Extremely Useful) (Combo Equal-Weight Indice Chart) (Extremely Useful) (Should've made it public) (Semi-Useful) (Just for fun) Sector & Indice Trendline Watch: I use a fan of different trendlines from different anchor points (candle wick, candle body, Day prior, Day after, ect.) and connected them in a similar way to 2015/2016 Lows to capture a more complete picture of the trendline. That way I'm not second guessing if the trend is broken or not because I have all of the possibly variations already displayed. See Below: Indice: (Broke?) (Very Weak) (Hanging on) Sector: (Strong) (Very Weak) (Struggling) (Broke) (Still Well Above)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RHTrading
4
The Curve Is Falling, The Curve Is Falling $TLT God bless the legacy financial media because their uselessness is a blessing. Headline to headline is no way to live through live whether you trade oil or bitcoin. The click du jour is how the 2s/5s yield curve is now inverting, and the 10s/2s are at a mere 11 bps. I have been one of the largest flat curve-ers out there. Why? Because my process shows why the decelerating in rate in change in both growth and inflation will sink the back-end and the front steepening eases. On Sept. 6, I wrote in "Cognitive Dissonance: What the Yield Curve Is Saying:" "A lot of headlines have fluttered across the wires on the 10s/2s yield curve on a continuous path to inversion. Neckties on legacy media continue to say a flat or inverted curve doesn't mean much. I reckon, given the directional trajectory of both the curve and MVR inflation matrix that the curve is signaling market's expectations on inflation. Generally, this would make sense given that the steepening from a curve inversion is triggered by the fed's policy stance on interest rates during the end of the cycle." The concerns about increasing U.S. supply in paper is valid, but the concerns of too much debt issuance over demand becomes "where do I put my money" concerns. That's likely treasuries, increasingly so as investment and junk credit continue to breakdown.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by TheMacroStrategist
The bond bear is not here yet.... use a log scaleThere have been a lot of talks of a bond bear market over the past year. That would be a big problem, but it's not here yet. The biggest problem is that too many chartists are using and circulating charts of trend resistance breaking in bonds that do not use log scales. I get that it seems intuitively dumb for a yield chart to use a log scale, but that's how this has traded for the better part of the last 20 years. Trade what is, not what you think should be. Turns out we haven't yet hit the top channel here, so we're not in a bond bear. It also turns out that touching the top channel occurred every time the fed quit hiking rates over the past 30 years, which preceded the last 3 recessions / bear markets by 1-2 months at least. Short term, we're in a rising wedge that the bond market has obeyed quite well. If we rise directly to the top of the channel, that would imply a May 2019 break of this uptrend and a recession / bear market starting around mid 2019 into 2020. Who knows how this actually plays out, but I know we haven't hit a true bond bear yet, and even when we do, it'll probably be far less exciting than people want to believe.
TVC:US10Y
by GTStockmaster
2
OPENING: TLT NOV 16TH 112/2X114/115 BROKEN WING BUTTERFLY... for a .71/contract debit. Small bet that treasury sell-off is overdone here and/or there will be some risk-off running into mid-term elections. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 51% Max Profit: 1.29/contract Max Loss: .71/contract Break Even: 112.71 (no downside risk) Notes: Will begin to look at taking the entire setup off as a unit at 25% max. You can also look to strip off aspects of the setup, with the ideal goal being to get what remains for free (e.g., strip off the short call aspect at or near what you paid for the entire setup, allow the long call vert aspect to "ride").
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Is $SPY / $TLT Ratio Repricing Lower Inflation?U.S. equities bounce from initially being down 15 handles, but volatility is expected. However, is recent move expected? Yes, in my opinion, as markets are ultimately forced to re-price growth and inflation . Step back from the earnings headlines because that's literally old news. Although Q3-18 earnings growth is up nearly 20 percent, over 60 percent of companies that have reported are seeing negative FX impacts (i.e. rising dollar). There is also a solid concern on Q4-18 negative guidance going forward. That's not to say earnings will be horrible. Too early to tell, but the rising DXY will impact overseas earnings (remember 2014-15?). Furthermore, late cycle increases in wages and other employment costs will continue to crimp margins. If we look at D-R-I-P (disinflation/reflation/inflation proxy), the inflect is clear and largely impacted by the commodities and FX components and diverting from yields. This proxy is important when considering SPY/TLT ratio in terms of "risk-on/risk-off" market mentality. D-R-I-P has a strong intra-day correlation to the ratio r=.78 and intermediate-term correlation of r=.72. Given this, if we put up the proxy to the test of the TACVOL range, there is a strong probability of a 3.52 to 7.33 percent decline versus 2.5 to 4.92 percent to the upside. The ratio has been able to work off most of it's oversold move, but another three percent lower is in the cards. The COT data shows 209,584 contracts net-long of SPX, the second largest position of crude oil's massive 500,000+ contract net-long (bad idea). Compare this to the 30-year bond's net-short positioning of 118,924 contracts. If there is any disappointments on the macro front, this will get fuglier quickly.
AMEX:SPY
by TheMacroStrategist
Mid-Term elections and forecast based on game theory - A divide Game theory has the elections outcome pegged, and based on that, this is the market prediction. I have upgraded this AI to include the new chaos theory. Very interesting results and are playing out exactly. Such as "a divide within" Here's a taste: The democratic party division of the party itself. When and where? For more, you can contact me. Now custom game theory runs are available for corporate events, other parties, etc....
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Marek99
3
Oversold Conditions Deepen In Stock Market As Breakdowns WorsenAT40 = 11.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #2) AT200 = 31.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs () VIX = 23.0 (an increase of 44.0%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish (change from neutral) Commentary The market sell-off is unfolding quickly. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), plunged ever deeper into oversold territory. This time AT40 fell from 16.7% to 11.2% to end the day at closing levels last seen during the epic January, 2016 sell-off. {AT40 (T2108) fell off a cliff these past two trading days!} Now that AT40 is so low, AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, becomes a lot more important to monitor as an indicator of longer-term health. The weekly chart below shows the multi-year overall downtrend is well-intact. So just like almost every other rally from oversold levels, I expect the next rally to end at an even lower AT200 high. For now, the question is just how much lower will sellers push AT200. {AT200 (T2107) last closed this low in early 2016. Sellers still have plenty of room for pressing their points downward.} As the breadth indicators continue to drop deeper into oversold territory, the major indices are following gravity into new or worse breakdowns. The S&P 500 (SPY) wasted little time in breaking down below its 200DMA. The index stretched further below its lower Bollinger Band (BB) as it neared flatline with its 2017 closing price. {The S&P 500 (SPY) lost 2.1% to close with a 200DMA breakdown and a 3-month low.} Note well that for 2018 there has only been ONE Fed meeting where the S&P 500 did not tumble soon thereafter. The February swoon was of course the worst incident as the panicked selling started the day after. This time around, the panic took six trading days to get started. The NASDAQ extended its 200DMA breakdown with a 1.3% loss. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) gave up its 200DMA support with a 1.2% loss. {The NASDAQ closed at a 5-month low as it confirmed its 200DMA breakdown.} {The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) closed at a 3+ month low as it broke down below its 200DMA for the first time since June, 2016.} Small caps are leading the way in erasing 2018’s gains. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) lost another 1.9% and closed just one point above its 2017 close. {The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) closed at a 5-month low and is nearly flat year-to-date. IWM confirmed its 200DMA breakdown.} Much to my dismay, the volatility index continued higher today. The VIX gained 8.8% and was up as much as 25.6%. While the volatility faders were active for the 5th of 6 trading days, the VIX’s momentum is clearly higher. I added to my put options on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) by rule, but the prospects for profits by next Friday are dimming. {The volatility index, the VIX, closed at a near 7-month high with an 8.8% gain.} I made my first purchase of call options on SPY soon after the index broke down below its 200DMA. Per the aggressive oversold trading strategy, I will continue adding to this position during the oversold period. However, I started with an expiration for next Friday, so it is possible I will be forced to reset my strategy (likely for November expiration). Until then, I will only add after the VIX has spiked at least 10% from my last purchase. At some point (soon?), I will also buy shares of ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO) to hold through the extent of the recovery from oversold conditions. Given the extent of the technical damage across the entire market, I have to assume a new bearish phase is unfolding where I will be setting price targets for taking profits at important resistance levels. Still, shorting at key resistance will be very case dependent.
SP:SPXLong
by drduru