Get started

TLT

THE WEEK AHEAD: NFLX, EBAY, IBM, XOP, EWZ, TLT/TBTWe're back into the thick of earnings season again ... . NFLX (rank 64/implied 52) pops the top on Monday after market close, so you're going to want to slap anything you want to do on before session end to take maximum advantage of a volatility contraction play. Pictured here is a 20 delta iron condor in the weekly with a buying power effect of 6.59 per contract, and a max of 3.41 (a smidge greater than one-third the width of the wings). Naturally, you'll have to adjust the strikes shortly before fill, since it's a mover. Look to take profit at 50% max ... . EBAY hits the bricks on Wednesday after market close. I'd rather have background implied at >50% (it's currently at ~33%), but it may be worth watching to see if it ramps up in the Monday through Wednesday sessions. IBM gets its party on on Wednesday after market close, too, but that background implied of 25% doesn't exactly get my motor running. On the exchange-traded fund front, there isn't much premium to be had, and what there is to be taken is to be found in the places where it's been over the past several weeks: Brazil (EWZ -- 33.5% background), and petro (XOP/OIH -- 30%). Me personally, I'm hand sitting on those until I can see the whites of September's eyes (it's still 68 days out). That being said, if you're willing to go a little more long-dated here: the XOP Sept 21st 43 short straddle is paying 4.36 with break evens at 38.64/47.36, theta of 3.12, and -7.82 delta; the EWZ Sept 21st 34 short straddle: 4.06 credit, 29.94/38.06 break evens, 2.9 theta, -6.74 delta. Other "Major Food Group" Directionals: TLT continues to bop annoyingly along horizontal support/resistance near 122.50 like a toddler kicking the back of your seat in economy class. My tendency has been to short on retrace in a tightening rate environment, with the preference being for more flexible, longer-dated setups like diagonals where I've got time to reduce cost basis, as opposed to using static one-off spreads where you could find yourself in the middle of a short-term risk off event that ruins your day. Inversely, TBT is holding on by its fingernails to 35.25. I could see pulling the trigger on either here -- a long-dated TLT downward put diagonal or covered short combo/a TBT upward call diagonal/covered long combo. (See TBT Upward Call Diagonal Post, below).
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
4
Strength in Investment-Grade Debt Shows Flight to Safety$TLT #Bonds #bund #gild #treasuries These custom support resistance indicator lines show decent places to enter or exit. The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter. If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long. If your instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting. For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts). Find out more. Send Private Mail (PM) to @MasterCharts
FX:BUNDLong
by mastercharts
ES1!: Wedge Wedge Wedge for potential -10% Right, I have articulated previously on how I feel fundamentally about S&P500 earnings growth and think the anti-trade rhetoric is not going away till Nov mid-terms. ES1! is trading at the top of a mini-wedge tucked within a medium term wedge. Drawing on my Dr Suess instincts to try to explain this: Wedge 1 is mini wedge which I believe is a continuation pattern from the short-term peak on 14 June Wedge 2 is the medium term wedge which I believe is a continuation pattern from the Jan - Feb correction If you recall, the Jan - Feb correction represents a trend line break of the seemingly improbable Fibo-busting 2-yr bull run from Feb'16. So a breakdown from Wedge 1 will give us a -2% downside target to 2660 which happens to the the lower boundary of Wedge 2. A breakdown from Wedge 2 will give us a -10% downside target to 2440/60 which happens to be the 38.2% retracement of the Feb'16 uptrend. Follow me so far? This reinforced the signal from my UST/SPX relative return model which is in deep buy territory for UST, hence my earlier calls to buy TY1!, TLT and did I talk about T US? Hang on to your breeches!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WellTrainedMonkey
1
TYA Long: Potential 20% upsideWhat does the last 2 troughs in the TYA channel has in common with the current? Equity markets were at all-time-high. SPX CY'18 is expected to deliver +26% eps growth this year thanks to the tax cuts and budget deficits. Next year, it is expected to deliver something closer to norm, 10% growth. That is if the Trump's FART bill (google it, not kidding, there is a FART bill in circulation) does not kill growth growth. TLT is also trading at the bottom of a multi-decade range and has a +40% upside.
TLong
by WellTrainedMonkey
TRADE IDEA: TLT AUG/SEPT 120/27 DOWNWARD PUT DIAGONALShort on strength/horizontal resistance ... . Metrics: Max Profit on Setup: $208/contract Max Loss on Setup: $489/contract Break Even: 122.08 vs. 122.11 spot Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 489/700 = 69.9% Notes: This assumes that this level (122) sticks around or is available at NY open. Ideal profit would be ~20% of what you put it on for (.20 x 4.89 = .98/contract). Roll short put out on significant decrease in value (generally 50% max).
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: EWZ, EWW, CPB, BOXThis week: three candidates for directionals and one nondirectional premium selling play ... . CPB: Although timing could have been better to catch the absolute bottom in this, implied volatility rank and background implied volatility remain quite high in this underlying (61/35). Given price weakness coupled with high implied volatility rank, I would think that a bullish assumption directional would be the way to go, with the most straightforward strategy being via short put. Pictured here is a "Wheel of Fortune," at-the-money short put that's paying 1.85 at the mid with a break even of 36.15. The basic strategy is to take the short put all the way to expiry and, if assigned, proceed to cover at or above your cost basis and work it as you would any covered call. Naturally, if price finishes above 38, you walk away with the entire premium. Variations: 30 delta short put: Aug 17th 36, 1.05 credit at the mid, 34.95 break even. EWZ: The Brazil exchange-traded fund has absolutely been crushed, with price within 5% of its 52-week low. With a rank of 50 and background at 35, here's another play where you've got weakness coupled with volatility, so a bullish assumption play makes the most sense. The Aug 17th 32 "Wheel of Fortune" pays 1.65 with a break even of 30.35; the Aug 17th 30 delta short at the 30 strike, .87 with a break even of 29.13. EWW: If you're already in Brazil, EWW (rank 65/implied 27) is also at the bottom of a fairly long term range between 43 and 56. Wheel of Fortune: Aug 17th 46 short put: 1.75 at the mid, 44.25 break even; 30-delta: Aug 17th 44, .98 credit, break even at 43.02. BOX: With earnings 25 days in the rear view mirror and high rank and implied (76/53), I'd probably opt for a Plain Jane nondirectional: the Aug 17th 24/32 is paying 1.78 with a 69% probability of profit, break evens at 22.22/33.78 (wide of the expected on both sides), delta of .72, and theta of 3.34. Defined risk variation: Aug 17th 22/25/31/34 iron condor is paying 1.26 (I had to bring in both sides a smidge because the highest strike in Aug expiry is currently at 34 ... ). OTHER ACTIVE ALERTS: TLT, short on retrace at 122 (downward skip month put diagonal; horizontal resistance) or TBT, long on retrace at 36 (upward skip month call diagonal; horizontal support). XOP, short on retrace at 44.50 (downward skip month put diagonal; top of range).
C
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: TLT AUG/SEPT 119/126 DOWNWARD PUT DIAGONAL... for a 4.83/contract debit. Fading the treasuries move higher ... again. Here are the metrics: Max Loss On Setup: $483 Max Profit On Setup: $217 Break Even on Setup: 121.17 Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 69% Theta: .32 Delta: -42.26 Notes: Will look to take profit at 20% max. Ordinarily, I like to do these skip month (e.g., Aug/Oct) to give me an additional roll opportunities, but wanted to keep things small (going out farther in time requires a wider spread to achieve a break even at or above spot). The Aug/Oct setup would be the 119/129 for a 7.72/contract debit, max profit on setup of 2.28, debit paid/spread width ratio 77% ... .
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by NaughtyPines
3
TLT Bullish bat pattern combination with a daily hammerIt's a new try to apply harmonic patterns to treasure bond ETF. While recently people are discussing the yields, which is wildly convinced that it led to the Gold's slump yesterday. With this harmonic patterns combination in TLT, and it gave a daily hammer yesterday, it's quite a nice long trade with patterns and reversal sign combination. It worth noticing, not necessarily worth trading, but short-term speaking, if this is where part of the the bearish emotions for non-USD currencies come from, take some profit for the short is not a bad idea yo! Let's see how it goes!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Trader_Joe_Lee
TLT: Mother of all short squeezeEvery hedge funds and their wife, dog, cats, kids are short bonds. Everyone is trapped in the narrative of the FED's rate hike. The bus of short 10 year treasury is full. Its time for a train derail. In a risk-off environment, do you think the FED will ever hike rates further? Adding another level of uncertainly is the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore. Including the recent crash of Italian bonds, EU drama yet again (potentially 5x bigger than Greece) The only place funds can reposition themselves are the US dollar, and US debt/treasury. Uncle Sam. The VIX is currently near lows once again. ~13 It is time to counter-trade that, and reap the rewards of the short covering along 117 support line. You have only 2% to risk. Just buy August 2018 - June 2019 call/ bull spread and close your chart. No stop loss. If it doesnt get there, you lose your investments. If it does, you get back 5x~20x your investments. All conditions are perfect.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by LastBattle
8
Charts That Make You Go Hmmm... (SPY/TNX)Thank you to all my followers that take the time to read this with me. Some historical background on the importance of the 10 year Treasury Note Yield Index. (Hey, we all need to brush up on it from time to time) This is a ratio chart of SPY/TNX with a 9 year trend. As is the case with most charts related to interest rates, it's pretty technically perfect. I've always found this interesting because this is a market that is almost 100% Fundamentally driven, yet produces the cleanest technicals, but I digress. I just stumbled across this ratio chart, as interest rates are increasingly on my radar. I think the chart is self-explanatory for the technicians out there. Lastly, let's play 'Guess-That-Pattern' on the weekly 9-Year chart. Good luck to all.
SP:SPX
by RHTrading
1