TLT
OPENING: TLT AUG/SEPT 119/126 DOWNWARD PUT DIAGONAL... for a 4.83/contract debit. Fading the treasuries move higher ... again.
Here are the metrics:
Max Loss On Setup: $483
Max Profit On Setup: $217
Break Even on Setup: 121.17
Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 69%
Theta: .32
Delta: -42.26
Notes: Will look to take profit at 20% max. Ordinarily, I like to do these skip month (e.g., Aug/Oct) to give me an additional roll opportunities, but wanted to keep things small (going out farther in time requires a wider spread to achieve a break even at or above spot). The Aug/Oct setup would be the 119/129 for a 7.72/contract debit, max profit on setup of 2.28, debit paid/spread width ratio 77% ... .
WEEKEND REVIEW: Gold over Bitcoin, easy decision!Hi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
A Fed Buzzkill Ends Ambitions for An Overbought MarketA poor reaction to a hawkish Fed ended the overbought period at 2 days. The S&P 500 is now poised for a pullback.
A Fed Buzzkill Ends Ambitions for An Overbought Market drduru.com $SPY $QQQ #VIX #T2108 #AT40 $ITB $LEN $AAPL $TLT $DXY #forex
SPY Official Daily Prediction (Bullish)This is a very simple but powerful roadmap of what to expect. Looks to be a big move coming to the upside this year.
TLT Bullish bat pattern combination with a daily hammerIt's a new try to apply harmonic patterns to treasure bond ETF.
While recently people are discussing the yields, which is wildly convinced that it led to the Gold's slump yesterday.
With this harmonic patterns combination in TLT, and it gave a daily hammer yesterday, it's quite a nice long trade with patterns and reversal sign combination.
It worth noticing, not necessarily worth trading, but short-term speaking, if this is where part of the the bearish emotions for non-USD currencies come from,
take some profit for the short is not a bad idea yo!
Let's see how it goes!
Charts That Make You Go Hmmmm (Pt. 2)Chart is in Log.
Tried to hold myself accountable to not take any liberties with adjusting trendlines ever so slightly to make it appear 'more' bearish. Trendlines are lows and highs absolutely.
I like the simplicity here. Just two trendlines.
TLT: Mother of all short squeezeEvery hedge funds and their wife, dog, cats, kids are short bonds.
Everyone is trapped in the narrative of the FED's rate hike.
The bus of short 10 year treasury is full. Its time for a train derail.
In a risk-off environment, do you think the FED will ever hike rates further?
Adding another level of uncertainly is the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore. Including the recent crash of Italian bonds, EU drama yet again (potentially 5x bigger than Greece)
The only place funds can reposition themselves are the US dollar, and US debt/treasury. Uncle Sam.
The VIX is currently near lows once again. ~13
It is time to counter-trade that, and reap the rewards of the short covering along 117 support line. You have only 2% to risk.
Just buy August 2018 - June 2019 call/ bull spread and close your chart. No stop loss.
If it doesnt get there, you lose your investments. If it does, you get back 5x~20x your investments.
All conditions are perfect.
Charts That Make You Go Hmmm... (SPY/TNX)Thank you to all my followers that take the time to read this with me.
Some historical background on the importance of the 10 year Treasury Note Yield Index. (Hey, we all need to brush up on it from time to time)
This is a ratio chart of SPY/TNX with a 9 year trend. As is the case with most charts related to interest rates, it's pretty technically perfect.
I've always found this interesting because this is a market that is almost 100% Fundamentally driven, yet produces the cleanest technicals, but I digress.
I just stumbled across this ratio chart, as interest rates are increasingly on my radar. I think the chart is self-explanatory for the technicians out there.
Lastly, let's play 'Guess-That-Pattern' on the weekly 9-Year chart. Good luck to all.
TLT H & S Formation TLT is ready to fall very soon and we should see this around 100 by end of year unelss we have an unforseen event occur.
TLT study still in tact I am expecting a pop here before the major drop. Short term bullish reveral in play
TLT may have one more leg up before the big drop TLT is setting up perfetly and by the looks of it, we will be ready to go short by the end of the month
TLT Extreme Daily Analysis 5/4/18I have really worked the TLT Daily chart and would like to share with you my thoughts exactly. Enjoy!
OPENING: TLT SEPT 21ST 113 LONG/JUNE 15TH 117 SHORT PUT DIAGONAL... for a .07/contract credit.
Taking a directional shot here at long-term horizontal support, with some flexibility to roll the short put aspect down in the event I'm wrong.
Notes: Will roll the short put aspect "as is" on 50% decrease in value and look to exit for 20% the width of the spread in profit.
Bonds Going DownLong term downtrend about to resume. On the TLT play, I see under 108 by Jan 2019 option expiration.
TLT - Bear BatB = 50% Retrace of XA Leg
C = Still forming but should start to slow down and head upward to D
D = Green boxes are profit targets 1 and 2, then yellow is potential reversal zone
Long entry until "CD" leg completes.
Treasury bond futures/TLT: Interesting place to buyThis might be worth a shot as a hedge for equity holdings here.
Risk 3 ATR down from here.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
TLT Short Term Outlook Hourly This is a great analysis and an over all great opportunity to ride the wave up.
SPX got rejected S&P 500 getting rejected for retest at the weekly neckline. VIX is also forming a double bottom. TLT and treasuries in general got smashed today. Risk on!
ZB - Bonds on the waySo Forkers - here's your Bond Trade I've mentioned in the free ForkTrading Group Weekly Outlook.
Next Station, WL4.
P!
