10 yr yield targets are being met into 4.70plus .Bonds are ready for a nice Short term rally be long TLT and do NOT be short stocks
TLT
Rolled (IRA): TLT Jan 17th 2025 Short Calls to Feb 21st... for a .28 credit.
Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my covered calls (See Post Below) a month for a small credit. Cost basis/break even in the setup is now 90.20.
The small consolation prize is that this keeps my break even right around with the underlying is currently trading.
TLT Treasuries Long breaks down under VWAP SHORTTLT on a 120 minute chart has continued its trend down since early December after a suddent
uptrend in November lasting for a two month until the end of 2023.
Inflation data is kicking the rate cut down the road of time.
Price has now fallen under the VWAP and all of the EMA lines including the EMA20.
Relative strength trending correlates with price . I conclude, TLT continues to be set up
SHORT or alternatively TBT LONG . I will take short trades at weekly highs on a 30-60
minute chart until signs of a reversal are seen on the chart.
TLT- #TLT Long Idea- $TLT BuysEntry: Price broke through the 4H and 1D swing highs. Will be looking for longs/buys if the market taps the bullish zone.
Stops: Close below the all time lows will invalidate the idea.
Take Profit: Discretionary.
TLT- Are rate cuts postponed? LONGTLT has been in a broadening wedge and formed a falling wedge within the larger pattern.
Price bounced off the lower supoort trendline in the mid-morning of trading then rising
to break out of the falling wedge. I see this as an opportunity to take a long trade in TLT
and close out a TBT position at the same time. This reversal may be due to the value of
existing bonds with the implications of a rate cut postponed beyond June. The faster RSI line
has recovered to cross the 50 level lending further support to this long trade.
TMF long trade setup 3X Bullish TreasuriesTMF on the 4H chart is set up at the bottom descending support trendline of a symmetrical
triangle in the approach to the apex. Price appears ready to reach for the upper descending
resistance trend line and the Echo Indicator ( Lux Algo ) makes that forecast. Current
ambiguities in a rate cut soon upcoming will make values of Treasuries a complicated matter.
I am taking a long trade targeting 54 with a stop loss at 50 in consideration of the triangle
pattern. I have existing positions in TLT.
Opening (IRA): TLT Jan 17th 2025 100 Covered CallsComments:
Doing something long-dated here in 20 year+ paper to get in at a cost basis that is coincident with a 10 year yield at 4.10%.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis: 91.40/contract
Max Profit: 8.60 ($860)/contract
ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 9.41% (Excluding Dividends)
ROC at 50% Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 4.70% (Excluding Dividends)
Delta/Theta: 49/1.00
Will look to roll out the short calls at intervals if they're in profit to reduce cost basis further. They're currently marking at 7.00/7.25 with the only available expiry to roll out to in Jan of 2026 (so I'll be forced to sit on my hands for "a bit").
Opening (IRA): TLT May 17th 88 Short Put... for a 1.08 credit.
Comments: Laddering out on weakness, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit at or below the cost basis of the shares I've currently got.
IEF: Holding on to an Established Trendline at the 0.382 RetraceThe IEF (US 7-10 year Treasury ETF), has held on to the 0.382 Fibonacci Retrace aligning with a Long-term and Established Trend line and the 200-Month Simple Moving Average with high amounts of MACD Bullish Divergence and a move above the 0 line on the Oscillators. All of these factors point towards lower yields in the 7-10 Year Treasuries and an increase in par value on the bonds themselves. Bullish setups can also be found in other duration ETFs such as the TLT and SHY representing the 20 Year and the 1-3 Year Bonds.
I suspect that all this Bullishness on Bonds will come with the Uninverting of the Yield Curve, which may align in commodities blasting off much higher in the short term, but in the long term could result in the resetting of the Bullish Cycle in Equities and Commodities alike.
Opening (IRA): TLT April 19th 90 Short Put... for a 1.10 credit.
Comments: Although I have a long-dated covered call on in TLT, starting to ladder out some short put at intervals that would result in an improvement of my cost basis in the covered call were I to be assigned shares.
Targeting the strike that's paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
TLT long 85.8 add 82 can keep sl at 78 , inspired by a chart post I saw somewhere I love these the of set ups , catch a falling knife and put in in your socket and save it for a rainy day
US 20 Year Yield: Bearish Harami at Bearish Bat PCZThere is a Bearish Harami at the HOP level of a Bearish Bat with Impulsive RSI BAMM Confirmation. Alongside that, we also have 2 Major Squareups significantly below the current level and also an unfilled gap. If these Bearish Signals at the highs are to play along, this should be the start of an even greater retrace to fill the downside gap and to complete the square ups. This would likely come with some Bearishness in DXY and upside in the TLT which may also spillover into the IEF.
Time to flip short $TLT againWe made good money shorting NASDAQ:TLT into the summer down to the initial target I had of $88. Then we flipped long again and I exited my longs earlier this month on Dec 7th. Now, as you can see from the first chart , we've come up against resistance and I think it's time to flip short again to retest the lows.
How low we go is TBD, but I think this move could go to at minimum $95 and at maximum retest, or barely sweep the lows.
I bought some puts yesterday with a strike of $97 for a few months out.
Note: There is a possibility that we get one more retest of the highs before it starts falling (if this happens, I'll add more to my position).
TLT → Strong downtrendNASDAQ:TLT remains in a strong bearish trend.
After breaking through the 93 zone, the bond price rose.
It has not been able to break the first resistance found in the 103.70 zone, and it has another more important resistance in the 110 level.
At the moment I am not going to buy long-term american bonds, and I am still invested in monetary asset investment funds with an average maturity of these assets of less than 90 days.
And what are american fund managers doing?
American fund managers are again massively accumulating short positions against the american bond.
😳 TREASURY-BONDS COLLAPSE IS JUST ONE STEP AWAY TO COME BACKThe collapse in Treasury bonds in 2021-2023 now ranked among the worst market crashes in history.
Since March 2020 to 2023 fall, Treasury long term bonds with maturities of 10 years or more have plummeted over 40% while the 30-year bond had plunged over 50%.
That's just under losses seen in the stock market when the dot-com bubble burst.
The bond rout was worse than the one seen in 1981 when the 10-year yield neared 16%.
The bond-market sell-off that's sending yields soaring is starting to eclipse again some of the most extreme market meltdowns of past eras.
Those losses are nearly in line with stock-market losses seen during the worst crashes of recent history — when equities slumped 49% after the dot-com bubble burst and 57% in the aftermath of 2008.
Compared with previous bond-market meltdowns, long-term Treasurys are seeing one of the most extreme undoings in history. The losses are over twice as big as those seen in 1981 when 10-year yields neared 16%.
That crash came as the former Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker grappled with historic inflation and pushed the federal funds rate to just under 20%.
While interest rates remain well below that level today, the central bank's aggressive turn toward monetary tightening in the post-pandemic era has caused a similar bond-market rout. And some traders have continued selling amid concerns of rebounding inflation, while a deluge of Treasury issuance this year has also pressured bond prices.
Technical graph for 10-year yield futures CBOT_MINI:10Y1! indicates that 52-weeks SMA support is still important for further T-Bonds pressure, while 10-year yield (unfortunately to T-Bonds holders) is still following major upside trendlines.
TLT: Double Bottom at the 0.382 Retrace with Bullish DivergenceSome weeks ago TLT was trading within a Falling Wedge and Double Bottoming at the 0.382 with Bullish Divergence on the Hourly Timeframe and from there rallied to hit its 0.618 Profit Target. Since then, it has come back down just below the level it started at but in doing so has yet again formed Bullish Divergence near the 0.382, this time on higher timeframes. If the TLT were to start bottoming here, it would potentially be the start of an even bigger double bottom than the last one and could result in TLT testing even higher upside retraces such as the 0.886-1.13 which would take it to around $100
FAZ / FAS a demonstration of ratio-tradingHere on a daily chart the ratio of the Bearish Leveraged Financial ETF to its Bullish counterpart
is showing to be in a descending parallel channel. The chart is marked with comments about
trading considerations of these ratios at a given time. At present, the FAZ is undervalued
and should be bought. On the other hand, Bullish FAS, should be either sold if positions are
held.
TBT- an ETF bearish on bondsTBT on the one hour chart demonstrates a clear round bottom reversal in late June
with a good trend up this past week. Price rose above the POC line of the volume profile
on July 3th showing bullish momentum dominating. Price has continued to ascend above
the Chris Moody sling shot indicator affirming that momentum. Given the current fed posture
hawkish for another rate increase fixed rate bonds will suffer yet again. Other indicators
show rising upward volatility and relative volume which further support the strength of the
trend. Time is ripe for a swing trade in TBT.
TLT Long Treasury ETF- an options straddle idea TLT is here on a 15-minute chart. Price action is orderly and somewhat related to treasury yield
fluctuations and the value of the existing securities adjusting from those fluctuations. There is
adequate volatility. A straddle options strategy can be employed. Positions can be taken
in both directions. Depending on price action, one leg will rise and the other will fall. Overall
the trades make profit so long as there is volatility in one direction or the other. Additionally,
if the instrument is oversold and upward price action is more likely, the proportions between
the two legs can be skewed toward calls and vice-versa in overbought /overvalued scenarios.
Here in TLT, price is near to support and so relatively oversold. The hypothetical setup
is tipped in favor of the probabilities and expectations for a rise in TLT. Options can be OTM
or ITM depending on trader preference. In this example the calls selected are OTM at the level
of a Fibonacci retracement of the prior trend down and the puts selected are slight OTM at
the horizontal support level and the trade is skewed 70/30 ( by AMEX:USD ) toward the calls.
For a more astute explanation see the webpage from the link
TLT Long at VWAP Bounce T- Bills 20 yearsTLT on the 15 minute chart in the past two trading sessions consolidated and then fell into
a pullback to the support of the anchored mean VWAP. Relative volatility spiked and has
now contracted. I see this as a good entry to add to my TLT position having sold a good portion
of it three trading days ago when price showed topping wicks outside the fibonacci highest
band. This will be about $ 1.00 cheaper than before that sale and is part of a zig-zag
strategy for TLT overall.
Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin this yearStock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period.
It's been an unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally.
Shares have delivered a mixed performance so far in 2023, amid SVB crisis, high inflation and interest rate hikes, so while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies.
Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios.
But will 2023 follow the trend?
The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor .
This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 CBOE:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia .
What drives the Santa rally?
Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices
Will there be a Santa rally this year?
Probably, Yes. November "capped off the best three months" for global shares since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. Treasuries rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas.
Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes not.
The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year.
The main technical graph for SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust AMEX:SPY says that we right now somewhere around 460 U.S. dollars per share (relevant to 4'600 points for CBOE:SPX Index), and just one step to break it out to reach CBOE:SPX 5'000 Milestone by the end of the year.
Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken from Q4'22. And that is all.
Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2024 Year! 💖💖
🚚🚚 The first Tesla Cybertruck deliveries are set to be happen The first Tesla Cybertruck deliveries are set to be happen tomorrow, on November 30.
Tesla is finally ready to throw its hat into the most important vehicle segment in the US.
The long-awaited Cybertruck, with its futuristic design and embarrassing shattered-window reveal, is finally set to enter production in 2023. Its arrival could be a turning point for the market with its alien looks, high-tech features, and unique body shape.
The company will host a Cybertruck delivery event at 1 p.m. CT on November 30 at its Texas Gigafactory — a delivery event that's long been delayed by various production difficulties.
"We dug our own grave with Cybertruck," Elon Musk said on Tesla's third-quarter earnings call.
The Tesla CEO said the EV pickup truck will require a "staggering" amount of work to ramp up because "it's the nature of the newness." However, he says the company is doing its best to simplify the vehicle.
"It will be cool, but it's utilitarian," he says.
Musk has previously talked about "production hell" during Tesla's past Model 3 ramp.
In the years since its first reveal, Musk has slowly revealed new details about the truck and its performance. Here's what we know so far.
New details from Q3 earnings call
👉 Musk says he expects to reach production of about a quarter million Cybertrucks a year.
👉 "But I don't think we'll reach that output next year .... probably sometime in 2025," he says.
👉 He also talks about the challenges of the ramp-up period.
"The ramp is going to be extremely difficult. There's no way around that," Musk says. "If you want to do something radical and innovative and something's really special like the Cybertruck, it is extremely difficult because there is nothing to copy."
"The more uncharted the territory, the less predictable the outcome," he added.
Musk says he wants to "temper expectations" for the Cybertruck, predicting it will take a year to 18 months before the vehicle can become a significant cash flow contributor, he cites the difficulties of scaling production on a new vehicle, as well as selling the EV at a "price people can afford."
The CEO says demand for the Cybertruck is high, and he believes it is one of Tesla's best products.
What are the features of a Tesla Cybertruck?
Musk has made numerous claims about the truck's purported capabilities that remain to be seen. He said the Cybertruck will be able to "serve briefly as a boat," and have rear-wheel steering. Its exoskeleton-based body is the opposite of how trucks are usually produced — and how they usually look.
What actually makes it into the final list of Cybertruck features is anyone's guess.
"This is a vehicle that competes against everybody and nobody," Ivan Drury, an automotive analyst for the car-shopping website Edmunds, told Insider earlier this year. "If the Cybertruck comes to fruition looking like it did at the debut, that should be more than enough — everything else from tech and features is just icing on the cake."
He compared the Cybertruck to Hummer, a similarly large and impractical vehicle that could attract enthusiasts and wealthy luxury buyers alike.
When will a Tesla Cybertruck come on the market?
Musk confirmed in May that Tesla will make the Cybertruck available to customers later in 2023.
"Sorry for the delay, we're finally going to start delivering production Cybertrucks later this year," he said. "And I think the product, if anything, is better than expectations."
It's the first completely new Tesla product in years and comes at a time when both Tesla and the pickup truck market need some fresh ideas.
How much does Tesla's Cybertruck cost?
It's unclear how much a Cybertruck will cost. Originally, in 2019, the company said the Cybertruck would cost $40,000, but Musk has since said that the price will change.
Generally, the Tesla price range starts around $40,000 for the cheapest variant of the Tesla Model 3 and goes up to $108,490 for the Plaid variant of the Tesla Model X. The Tesla Roadster is expected to be the most expensive model once it goes into production, at a base price around $200,000.
A now-deleted contract clause aimed at preventing early customers from reselling their trucks hints that the truck may not be cheap — or plentiful — when it is finally released, experts told Business Insider.
Tesla is currently taking refundable $100 deposits.
How long does it take to charge a Cybertruck?
Tesla has said that the Cybertruck will use its new Mega Charger V4 technology and become the quickest-charging EV.
Depending on its battery size, that could mean a full charge in less than a half an hour, though details remain to be seen.
Technical highlights on Tesla stocks ahead of first Cybertruck deliveries
👉 Tesla market capitalization has more than doubled in 2023, as Tesla stock price is near $245-250 range in this time, versus $120-125 range where it was at the end of gloomy 2022.
👉 Tesla stocks broke their 52-weeks SMA key resistance earlier in Q2'23 around $215 per share, with further double confirmation of this spurt in Q3'23 and recently in Q4'23.
👉 Following the major upside channel, Tesla stocks can move upside further, to its best historical levels shortly.
🚚🚚 Happy watching a long awaited Cybertruck delivery event as historical "Moment of Tesla" is just few hours to be there.
Raising EURUSD Profit Target to $1.114 due to a Bullish CypherDue to the apparent formation of a Bullish Cypher on the Daily, combined with the Bullish Push as confirmation on the RSI, and the strong push push in price action above the 200-day SMA, I will be raising my profit target for the EURUSD to the 100% retrace up at $1.114 as the 100% retrace would be the standard target for a Cypher and the TLT has outperformed which is usually a signal for psoitive price action in the EURUSD.
