OPENING: TLT JUNE 16TH 117/MAY 19TH 119.5 PUT DIAGONALGetting long bonds here via a net credit diagonal that I filled for a .01 credit.
For diagonals and calendars, there aren't much in metrics to look at, since how much you make will depend on a wide variety of factors (i.e., IV, underlying price movement, etc.):
Theta: 1.02
Delta: 7.24
Notes: The idea here is basically to reduce your cost basis in the long option with the short one. Here, the long cost .50 to contract to put on ... .
TLT
Strangle on TLTSold the 118/124 Strangle with 52 days to expiration on TLT for 1.95 credit.
Always like to have trades on TLT so even thou the IV rank is low I like to add trades keeping the qty small and will look to diversify with other trades in bonds later on next week.
I am basically betting that we are still in a correction and will stay between my 124 calls and 118 puts.
Our break even are:
116.05
125.95
With a Probability of profit of 62%. Target is to buy it back at 50% of credit received increasing our probabilities to 75%.
LOOKING TO GO LONG T-BONDS Promising setup developing at TLT (treasury bond ETF) at the daily timeframe.
Looking to go long with momentum or at pullback to the trendline.
First tactical target 200SMA, main target 129-130 area (measured move + 50% level of Jul-Dec 2016 move). Setup invalidated with daily close below 120.
TLT Big Lizard, Neutral to bullish.Selling the 116 Straddle and buying the 118 Call for a total of $2.33 Credit.
We have no risk to the upside and we are betting the Rate change is already priced in and if something strange happens and we get a move higher we don't have any risk to the upside.
Our break even is at $113.67
That's 2.5% protection move to the downside. Last two times we had a rate change we had a move of 1.6% and 1.7%.
With 39 days to expiration, we have a 74% probability to make money in this trade.
TLT-Looking to buy if support holds.Technically speaking
The ~116 level contains a confluence of support. The trendline going back to 2011 and the low prints going back to 2015 should provide support. We shall see.
On the updside, 128 is the first level of resistance.
What to do?
I will be looking to dips around the 116 level, targeting a move back toward 128. My willingness to buy will depend on price action around the 116 level.
I will update this chart when things change.
TLT - This should open your eyes a litte moreJust look, study and begin to see.
If you know the rules about Action/Reaction, about the Forks, you have a better sense what potentially could happen when price reaches the centerline, or breaks out of the U-MLH and comes back ("overshoot" - "back to centerline" in pink).
Follow each bar, from left to right...slowly...think about what's going on bevor going to the next bar.
Feel how markets swing, up and down and up and down...breathe in, breath out...contraction, release.
As above so below
Drop me a message if you like it, have comments or want to learn more about the Forks.
P!
Trading TLT on the 4 hour ChartGoing long on TLT at 119.30 (around bottom of uptrend channel in blue). Stop loss is a daily close below 117. Target is 123 and then 124-70 - 125 depending on where the channel resistance is at the point of the push up north. Hope this is not too difficult to understand Chart looks a bit cluttered as there are several interpretations of the chart depending on the time frame being studied.
Portfolio update: I'm long a few thingsThis is how my equity portfolio looks on the long side -plus a stake in $RVLT-. I also have shorts in $NVDA and $NFLX, which -if we consider that $CEF and $TLT are pretty much like shorting the market-makes my portfolio 51% long, 1% in cash and the rest 'short'.
I'll hold this for the time being, watching the developments here onwards.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.