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TLT

TLT Core Position (IRA)In the absence of some kind of face-ripping rally, I'm going to be assigned shares in TLT here shortly, starting with what began as an October 20th 93 short put and an October 20th 89 short put. Here, I'm using short puts as an acquisitional tool, attempting to acquire shares in multi-year weakness, after which I'll proceed to cover the shares with short calls. The short call premium, along with TLT's monthly dividend, will result in positive cash flow. There are a couple of different approaches I could utilize here to manage the shares I'm assigned, one of which is to sell a call against each individual lot I'm assigned, laddering out short calls in time as I'm assigned shares. Since I've got quite a few contracts subject to assignment, this would result in sort of a covered call spaghetti-works. Another simpler approach would be to see what the average cost basis of all the lots I'm assigned is, and then proceed to sell calls at or above that average cost basis in a single expiry. For example, the average cost basis of the two rungs shown here is (89 + 93)/2 or 91/share. With that cost basis in mind, I would proceed to sell two calls at or above the 91 strike at a reasonably delta'd strike in an expiry that's paying. Given the distance price has pulled away from my likely average cost basis, the calls are likely to be somewhat long dated. Given the fact that my highest short put strike is at 94, I'm more likely to sell calls at 94 initially, wait to be assigned everything that I'm going to get assigned, look at the average cost basis at that point and then adjust the short calls accordingly. Because of its simplicity, this is the approach I'll be going with, looking to stay in the shares and manage the entire position on a fairly long-term basis. As usual, we'll see how it goes ... .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
$TLT bottom. Upside ahead targeting $100+As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today. I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then. I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming months. I'm not a believer in the rates are going to stay higher for longer narrative. I do think they'll be higher than where we were in 2021, but I do not think they'll stay at 5+%. I think the financial system will end up being in trouble and the only out will be to bring down rates again. I do think that'll play out sometime in the next 6 months.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
1
Opening (IRA): TLT Oct/Nov/Dec Short Put LadderComments: Targeting the 16 delta strike here in successive expiries to generate free cash flow and emulate dollar cost averaging into 20 year+ maturity paper. October 20th 89: .77 credit. November 17th 87: .76 credit. December 15th 86: .84 credit. Since these aren't paying buckets of cash on a per contract basis, I'll look to manage these on extrinsic approaching worthless either by closing them out in profit or rolling for credit and duration to reduce my cost basis further.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TLT Nov/Dec 86/84 Short PutsComments: Targeting the 16 delta strikes in November and December to erect rungs at strikes better than what I currently have on to emulate dollar cost averaging into 20 year+ maturity paper. November 17th 86: .83 credit December 15th 84: .79 credit Here, I'm fine with getting assigned and proceeding to sell short call against, but want to get in at the biggest discount the market will let me get away with because at some point, you know they're going to cut. Naturally, this may be months out in time ... .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
$US10Y At a Important Pivot Point--- ### Market Analysis: TVC:US10Y Nears Crucial Pivot Point #### Critical Juncture for the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield ( TVC:US10Y ) is currently at a pivotal position that could significantly influence market sentiment. This important pivot point is marked by a specific blue line on the chart, serving as a key indicator for market direction. #### Bullish and Bearish Implications - **Below the Blue Line - Bullish for Markets**: If the TVC:US10Y falls below this blue line, it is generally interpreted as a bullish signal for the markets. A lower yield on the 10-year Treasury often suggests an increased appetite for riskier assets like stocks, as investors seek higher returns than those offered by government bonds. - **Above the Blue Line - Bearish for Markets**: Conversely, if the yield rises above this blue line, it can be seen as bearish for the markets. Higher yields may indicate a shift towards a more risk-averse sentiment, potentially driving investors away from stocks and into the perceived safety of government bonds. #### Monitoring Market Movements The position of the TVC:US10Y relative to this blue line is a critical factor for investors to monitor. It not only reflects broader market trends but also helps in predicting future market movements. The yield’s behavior around this pivot point could provide valuable insights into the market's overall risk tolerance and investment direction in the near term.
TVC:US10YLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
$TLT 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF The NASDAQ:TLT , or the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF, appears to be undergoing a significant shift in its trend dynamics based on your description. Here's a breakdown of what you're observing: 1. **Bearish to Bullish Reversal**: This indicates that the ETF, which was previously in a downtrend (bearish phase), is showing signs of reversing to an uptrend (bullish phase). Such reversals are often identified through technical indicators like moving averages, momentum oscillators, or trendline breaks. 2. **Parallel Downtrend Break**: The breaking of a parallel downtrend suggests that the ETF has moved beyond a previously established downward channel. This is a technical pattern where the price moves within two parallel lines downwards. Breaking out of this channel can be a significant bullish signal, indicating that the selling pressure is easing and buyers are starting to take control. 3. **Bullish Consolidation**: After the initial reversal, it seems the ETF is now in a phase of bullish consolidation. This typically involves the price moving sideways or slightly pulling back, which allows the ETF to stabilize after the initial surge in buying activity. This phase often precedes further upward movement as it suggests that buyers are still interested at these higher price levels, and the selling pressure is not strong enough to push the price back down. For a more detailed analysis, it would be beneficial to look at specific technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), volume data, as well as key support and resistance levels. Additionally, fundamental factors impacting Treasury bonds, like interest rate changes, inflation expectations, and overall economic outlook, should also be considered to complement the technical analysis. Remember, while technical analysis can provide valuable insights, it's always important to consider multiple factors and viewpoints when making investment decisions.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
TLT ~ Have US Yields finally topped? (Weekly / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:TLT chart mapping/analysis. Note: TradingView chart dividend adjusted. Price action bouncing off Golden Pocket (66% Fib) support Heavy trading volume = institutional activity (ie positioning?) Rejection wicks on previous weekly candles = selling pressure still present (correlation with long-end yields holding strength) Looking for re-test of lows + bounce to confirm double bottom support base established for bullish momentum. Inverse play = price action engulfs previous candle, completes gap partial-fill + taps overhead resistance aka descending trend-line (light blue dotted). Institutional short-squeezes could still be active - complimenting inverse play thesis. Failure to break above/below either trend-lines = price action continues to contract until eventually ripping in volatile fashion in either direction. Set alerts - monitor US yields - wait for trade to set up in your favour.
NASDAQ:TLT
by BlueHatInvestor