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TLT

Opening (IRA): TLT Nov/Dec 86/84 Short PutsComments: Targeting the 16 delta strikes in November and December to erect rungs at strikes better than what I currently have on to emulate dollar cost averaging into 20 year+ maturity paper. November 17th 86: .83 credit December 15th 84: .79 credit Here, I'm fine with getting assigned and proceeding to sell short call against, but want to get in at the biggest discount the market will let me get away with because at some point, you know they're going to cut. Naturally, this may be months out in time ... .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
$US10Y At a Important Pivot Point--- ### Market Analysis: TVC:US10Y Nears Crucial Pivot Point #### Critical Juncture for the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield ( TVC:US10Y ) is currently at a pivotal position that could significantly influence market sentiment. This important pivot point is marked by a specific blue line on the chart, serving as a key indicator for market direction. #### Bullish and Bearish Implications - **Below the Blue Line - Bullish for Markets**: If the TVC:US10Y falls below this blue line, it is generally interpreted as a bullish signal for the markets. A lower yield on the 10-year Treasury often suggests an increased appetite for riskier assets like stocks, as investors seek higher returns than those offered by government bonds. - **Above the Blue Line - Bearish for Markets**: Conversely, if the yield rises above this blue line, it can be seen as bearish for the markets. Higher yields may indicate a shift towards a more risk-averse sentiment, potentially driving investors away from stocks and into the perceived safety of government bonds. #### Monitoring Market Movements The position of the TVC:US10Y relative to this blue line is a critical factor for investors to monitor. It not only reflects broader market trends but also helps in predicting future market movements. The yield’s behavior around this pivot point could provide valuable insights into the market's overall risk tolerance and investment direction in the near term.
TVC:US10YLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
$TLT 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF The NASDAQ:TLT , or the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF, appears to be undergoing a significant shift in its trend dynamics based on your description. Here's a breakdown of what you're observing: 1. **Bearish to Bullish Reversal**: This indicates that the ETF, which was previously in a downtrend (bearish phase), is showing signs of reversing to an uptrend (bullish phase). Such reversals are often identified through technical indicators like moving averages, momentum oscillators, or trendline breaks. 2. **Parallel Downtrend Break**: The breaking of a parallel downtrend suggests that the ETF has moved beyond a previously established downward channel. This is a technical pattern where the price moves within two parallel lines downwards. Breaking out of this channel can be a significant bullish signal, indicating that the selling pressure is easing and buyers are starting to take control. 3. **Bullish Consolidation**: After the initial reversal, it seems the ETF is now in a phase of bullish consolidation. This typically involves the price moving sideways or slightly pulling back, which allows the ETF to stabilize after the initial surge in buying activity. This phase often precedes further upward movement as it suggests that buyers are still interested at these higher price levels, and the selling pressure is not strong enough to push the price back down. For a more detailed analysis, it would be beneficial to look at specific technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), volume data, as well as key support and resistance levels. Additionally, fundamental factors impacting Treasury bonds, like interest rate changes, inflation expectations, and overall economic outlook, should also be considered to complement the technical analysis. Remember, while technical analysis can provide valuable insights, it's always important to consider multiple factors and viewpoints when making investment decisions.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
TLT ~ Have US Yields finally topped? (Weekly / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:TLT chart mapping/analysis. Note: TradingView chart dividend adjusted. Price action bouncing off Golden Pocket (66% Fib) support Heavy trading volume = institutional activity (ie positioning?) Rejection wicks on previous weekly candles = selling pressure still present (correlation with long-end yields holding strength) Looking for re-test of lows + bounce to confirm double bottom support base established for bullish momentum. Inverse play = price action engulfs previous candle, completes gap partial-fill + taps overhead resistance aka descending trend-line (light blue dotted). Institutional short-squeezes could still be active - complimenting inverse play thesis. Failure to break above/below either trend-lines = price action continues to contract until eventually ripping in volatile fashion in either direction. Set alerts - monitor US yields - wait for trade to set up in your favour.
NASDAQ:TLT
by BlueHatInvestor
US10Y - Is it a "sea change" or a strong buy for TLT and TMF ?In December 2022, Howard Marks told in an interview that a "sea change" is underway in markets. When I have seen below charts of TVC:US10Y , I have remembered that interview: (Unfortunately I needed to remove the graph due to lacking reputation points. Maybe you can view with //x/HZKlWa8U ) TVC:US10Y was in a downtrend in a channel since 1980 and this long lasting channel has been broken at April 2022, and upper line of the channel became support at July and August of 2022. So there are some signs that it's not a fake going out of channel like the one in 2020 March. Does Howard Marks right by saying it's a "sea change" ? And in this weekly chart of TVC:US10Y , we can see it has formed a new uptrend in a new channel: (Maybe you can view the chart with /x/DHeM0t8W ) See how good it has used that upmoving support. Now, we are again hitting that support and if that support line is broken, it would be a "strong buy" for NASDAQ:TLT and AMEX:TMF . Both graphs have given bullish divergence recently: (Maybe you can view the charts with /x/2jGkJkCJ and /x/5NGqJ3Ze ) This week we will see if TVC:US10Y will break the channel and confirm the bullish divergence of TLT and TMF. If the support would been broken at TVC:US10Y , then 4.20 and 3.40 and 2.75 are the levels to watch for the bullish trend of NASDAQ:TLT and $AMEX:TMF. In conclusion, if TVC:US10Y will break the channel this week, I'm long in NASDAQ:TLT and $AMEX:TMF. If not, we will keep watching if Howard Marks was right and it's really a sea change.
TVC:US10YShort
by alikasapoglu
$US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out"The TVC:US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out as we observed a scenario where the momentum indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), had been showing bearish divergence with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. This indicated a potential weakening of the yield's upward momentum, despite higher prices initially. Subsequently, the divergence 'played out' as the 10-year Treasury yield indeed reversed its upward trend, aligning with the bearish divergence signal. This divergence resolution may have led to a shift in market sentiment or investment strategies, impacting various sectors and asset classes."
TVC:US10YShort
by AlgoTradeAlert
VIX WARNING RALLY is SHORT COVERING SQUEEZE like I said The chart posted is the VIX of the VIX the VVIX has the cycle which I stated on monday and friday last week a short squeeze is now setup as the13.8 to 15.2 week decline would see a sharp rally. And that the IYT RSP BA and TNX were making a ending of a 5WAVES pattern we are only going to see an ABC rally and the last 5 days have been wave A so CAUTION I think the wave strurture in TLT is that of a wave 4 it should not get above 88.3 if that is the correct count then we will see a print of 81.5 to 79.6 and the VIX will be well into 29.6 to 38 so take any profits NOW
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by wavetimer
TLT Got Reality Checked Harder Than 2016. -43%! Every 40+ investor and a pair of eye glasses is pounding the long TLT! call options TLT!. You sure about that? you sure you can handle 4-5 years of a complete dead TLT? Federal Reserve seems to be only interested in bailing out banks collateral directly instead of starting YCC so the TLT traders "bond market is the safest in the world" has just completely took a nose dive. The hope here is that WW3 starts / or JP Morgan blows up like 2009 but again do you think the FRED will allow that to happen? Not a chance. Bank Term Funding Program
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
EURO VS U.S. DOLLAR. TO LOW, OR NOT TO LOW. THIS IS THE QUESTIONThis publication is for Euro against U.S. dollar, and quick and simple as well as all other publications by @Pandorra 2023 is about the end, so let's take a look on technical perspectives for FX:EURUSD . The main graph is EURUSD semi-annual 6-month chart (yes, they also exist on TradingView, as well as quarterly 3-month charts and annual 12-month charts). EURUSD is being concentrated on multi year floor, with lowest levels at semi-annual close around 1.05 (actual again in this time). Well, recently being inspired with finding NASDAQ:TLT multi year floor, I guess that breaking down the 1.05 floor in EURUSD can turn the price much and much lower. Maybe to 1.6 Euro for 1 U.S. Dollar somewhere in mid or late 2020s, or early 2030s. Patience.. Patience.. and once again Patience.. The Time will show.
by Pandorra
$US10Y Negative Divergence RSITVC:US10Y Negative Divergence RSI The TVC:US10Y showcases a negative divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This indicates that while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield might be increasing, the momentum behind this rise is weakening. Historically, such divergences in the RSI can signal potential trend reversals or price corrections in the near future. Investors and traders should be cautious and closely monitor subsequent price actions and other technical indicators to validate this potential divergence.
TVC:US10Y
by AlgoTradeAlert
Long term gold.Long term entries and exits for 20 year bonds and SP500 (via SPY) in correlation solely to FED interest rates and US inflation rate adjustments. Here's my personal game plan going forward with this in mind- not war news. Starting to add TMF (20 year treasury 3X) equity now. ~Sell covered calls on it until FED pivot lowering interest rates. ~Add all TMF covered call profit to equity until FED pivot lowering interest rates. ~Hold TMF equity until the following FED pivot where they begin increasing interest rates again- no matter how long that may be. Last time, that took from Jan, 2020-Oct,2021. The time before that, was April, 2007- July 2015. As shown by the vertical blue lines on the interest rate chart, fed has previously held interest rates at 5.5% for years at a time. Specifically, from January, 1995 to April, 1998. Then, raising rates again in April, 1999 through October 2000. The tech bubble soon followed that.. If we are comparing things to then, and fed did get things right this time around and achieved the "soft landing," then we will see equities continue to do well as they did in 1995-2000. We would have potentially years worth of gains before reaching price to earnings levels anywhere near previous over valued levels... Where QQQ P/E ratio was a crazy 190 in March, 2000. Meanwhile, today, QQQ P/E ratio is 32.88. A huge fundamental difference. Which is even an 8% premium discount in relation to QQQ's 3 year average P/E today of 30.45 In 2000, 10 year bond yields reached 6.03% As of October 16, 2023, the 10 year bond yield was 4.71%. Showing previous radical levels include much more room for todays markets. Now., if we are comparing things to 2008 when banks were writing sub prime loans and simultaneously dealing with FED interest rates at 5.5%, the span that rates were that high was only from April 2006-April 2007. As sited to Forbes.com, "By early 2007, the housing bubble was bursting and the unemployment rate started to rise. With the economy failing, the FOMC started reducing rates in September 2007, eventually slashing rates by 2.75 percentage points in less than a year." In which that case we saw SPY equities lose 57% from October, 2007- March 2009. Worldly/economic conditions are clearly different today than in 2000 and 2008. Those are simply references from similar fiscal conditions where outcomes ultimately contradicted each other. To continue, from looking at past market reactions, I will ]continue holding TMF up until the point when FED pivots to begin increasing rates again. Subsequently, this will not happen until US inflation rate is below the 2% target goal. When US inflation is back down to 2% goal but not until, sell all 20 year bonds and start dollar cost averaging equal weight into: XLG- SP500 top 50 fund paying 8.5% dividend SVOL- Inverse vix paying 17% dividend TQQQ- QQQ 3X SOXL- Semiconductors 3X As for the current technical level of SP500 (SPY)...we are currently at the level going back to October of 2021. This is when market reacted to FED starting to increase interest rates again. To summarize, if fed were to raise rates again this coming November 1st, this support level will likely get bought up by the same buyers who bought in October, 2021 and January, 2023. Especially now that US interest rate is at 3.7% compared to the 6.7% it was in October of 2021. When you look at the reality of that, essentially the same SPY price today is 3% less inflated than it was 2 years ago at the crazy high covid spending levels. Adding that with the current P/E levels, I genuinely don't know if that is a fair value. One thing I'm certain of, big money knows. They clearly seem to follow the interest rate pivot decisions for market bottoms and tops. For 2024-2025, if FED lowers interest rates for any unexpected/surprising reason we haven't been notified of yet, equities price action absolutely would be on a path similar to 2000 or 2008. Essentially returning to pre covid levels. In return, bond yields would crash while the face value massively increases. Which is why my main play is TMF- leveraged 20 year bonds.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by raylanboogie
Citizens Financial Group. Possible Upside on Q3'23 Earnings CallBond pressure... Pushing' down on me, Pressing' down on you, No man ask for... Technical graph says that possible upside with NYSE:CFG stocks could be possible, with projected/ targeted line at 52W SMA. With 6.20% dividends yield, double-digit operating yield and P/B just at 0.6, NYSE:CFG securities can be considered as quite undervalued. The protection level can be considered as multi months (6-, 12-months) low.
NYSE:CFG
by Pandorra