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Tltanalysis

Ishares 20+ Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $90sIshares 20+ Treasury Bond NASDAQ:TLT are particularly sensitive to interest rates: the price moves up when they are lowered and down when they rise. Locally, I'm witnessing banks lower their interest rates for CDs and shorten the duration for those with high-yielding returns. The general political rhetoric, especially due to the election cycle, is a push for the Federal Reserve to drop them. Now, despite the possible negative economic implications of lowering interest rates too soon if inflation is high, there is a good probability they may be lowered (even slightly) in 2024... perhaps September? This analysis isn't to time the bottom perfectly, though. Instead, it's a probability assessment. Personally, TLT in the low $90s is in a long-term "buy-zone". Target #1 = $104 Target #2 = $122 Target #3 = $170+ (very long-term view / economic crash... let's hope not, though)
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NicksAnalysis
Time to flip short $TLT againWe made good money shorting NASDAQ:TLT into the summer down to the initial target I had of $88. Then we flipped long again and I exited my longs earlier this month on Dec 7th. Now, as you can see from the first chart , we've come up against resistance and I think it's time to flip short again to retest the lows. How low we go is TBD, but I think this move could go to at minimum $95 and at maximum retest, or barely sweep the lows. I bought some puts yesterday with a strike of $97 for a few months out. Note: There is a possibility that we get one more retest of the highs before it starts falling (if this happens, I'll add more to my position).
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by benjihyam
4
TLT → Strong downtrendNASDAQ:TLT remains in a strong bearish trend. After breaking through the 93 zone, the bond price rose. It has not been able to break the first resistance found in the 103.70 zone, and it has another more important resistance in the 110 level. At the moment I am not going to buy long-term american bonds, and I am still invested in monetary asset investment funds with an average maturity of these assets of less than 90 days. And what are american fund managers doing? American fund managers are again massively accumulating short positions against the american bond.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by tradingconmike
$TLT bottom. Upside ahead targeting $100+As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today. I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then. I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming months. I'm not a believer in the rates are going to stay higher for longer narrative. I do think they'll be higher than where we were in 2021, but I do not think they'll stay at 5+%. I think the financial system will end up being in trouble and the only out will be to bring down rates again. I do think that'll play out sometime in the next 6 months.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
1
TLT ~ Have US Yields finally topped? (Weekly / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:TLT chart mapping/analysis. Note: TradingView chart dividend adjusted. Price action bouncing off Golden Pocket (66% Fib) support Heavy trading volume = institutional activity (ie positioning?) Rejection wicks on previous weekly candles = selling pressure still present (correlation with long-end yields holding strength) Looking for re-test of lows + bounce to confirm double bottom support base established for bullish momentum. Inverse play = price action engulfs previous candle, completes gap partial-fill + taps overhead resistance aka descending trend-line (light blue dotted). Institutional short-squeezes could still be active - complimenting inverse play thesis. Failure to break above/below either trend-lines = price action continues to contract until eventually ripping in volatile fashion in either direction. Set alerts - monitor US yields - wait for trade to set up in your favour.
NASDAQ:TLT
by BlueHatInvestor
TLT: waiting a long time. Is it time to buy?One more Fed hike this year and after that bond market will hopefully settle down. When rate cuts start to happen, stock market will most like take a nosedive and a better home for the capital will he right here at TLT. In between now and then I am planning to start accumulating little bit at time bottom fishing some lows, but not too much. TLT is dangerously close to getting bottom fall off. Below about $80.5, it may tank another 30%. So little bit here and there is the way to go right now with options hedge. Fed might keep hiking to infinity destroying US economy and bonds along the way. TLT will not be a good place in that case... Technical areas: right now will look for a bounce to $ 95- $97. Above $99 there is a good change that the low is in. Otherwise will look for one more lower low to between $87 - $85 area. That is when I will put some more capital in. Below $80 it is game over, sell all, wait and see.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by mukit1
2
The Anatomy of the TLT; Cycle analysis by ThestructuredThis is my dissection of the TLT chart into the classic stages of a bubble, with time cycles. Each stage is present and the TLT appears to be in a bottoming process. I'm a big fan of using Fib channels combined with time cycles, because with fib channels, you are looking for a certain line to get hit, wherever that may be, as opposed to traditional fib retracements and extensions where you are looking for exact numbers. I find that with regular fibs, price often overshoots or undershoots them, whereas using a channel, it is more so a time based touch of a line, which si why it works so well with time cycles. Last year I had used these fib channels and cycles to find the current bottom on the TLT, which was an exact touch of the 161.8, right at a (red) time cycle trough region, and also at a strong volume profile node. There are larger, converging cycle troughs shown which should be somewhere in the September area of 2023. It is unclear at this time whether that region will be a higher low, or 'the bottom' (assuming that the 92 area wasn't already 'the' bottom, which it might have been. In any case, I am planning on investing this fall in that major trough zone, regardless of if price is higher or lower than it is now, when that timing region comes. Disclaimer: These charts and posts are a reflection of my own analysis and opinions based on my own analysis. I could be wrong, nothing is guaranteed, and my posts are for educational purposes only, as they are my own pure speculation, and should not be taken as investment advice of any kind. Do you own DD!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by thestructured
Takuri Line : reversal sign.Alright, interesting candle on the one week on TLT : In my opinion this is a Takuri Line. The body is small and the close happens near the high (I am not 100% satisfied with this classification since it has an upper shadow but it is 16% of overall candle). The lower shadow is more than three times the body length (3.37). So it fits the takuri line definition. It happens at an extreme low - lowest point in over 120 weeks - which would also be a good environment for the Takuri line to appear. It is statistically a solid reversal candle. If we gap up tomorrow and finish above 116 in the next three weeks we could be setting a new up trend that leads us to 132 - 133.... (we couled retest 108) IT IS VERY BULLSIH - I know. I think macro factors favor a more bullish bias... we'll see. Good luck.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by joce-69003
TLT BreakThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning. The monthly exponential moving average (EMA) ribbons have experienced their worse violation in the fund's 20 year history. Typically the monthly EMA ribbons act as very strong long term support. The lower 55 month EMA band can act as a low risk to reward long entry. The price at which the monthly candle closes is determinative. Fortunately, there is roughly an 80% chance that the 20-year bull trend in the price of TLT will hold in March 2022. (This probability comes from the standard deviation from the monthly mean). So for now, at least, the trend is likely to continue. However, the chart suggests that the decades-long trend is dangerously close to breaking.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SpyMasterTrades
4
$TLT selling off to $138-141 before rallying higherTLT looks to be close to finding a bottom. I could see TLT finding a bottom in the $138-141 range then basing for a couple of weeks before rallying higher in early November. Key dates and levels on the chart. My macro thesis is that we're at the start of a larger pullback in markets and money will flow to treasuries as a safety net. Dates align on both the S&P bottom and TLT top around March... Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
3